BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
ST LOUIS
Game: Xavier vs. St. Louis Game Time: 2/7/2008 9:00:00 PM Prediction: St. Louis Reason: I'm taking the points with ST. LOUIS. The Musketeers are a solid and well-balanced team. However, they've been "nothing special" on the road, winning just three of their six true road games while going 2-4 ATS. The Musketeers, who have a huge weekend showdown with St. Joseph's on deck, have also struggled here at St. Louis, losing their last three games here. Last season, the Musketeers were listed as -4 point favorites when they traveled here but the Billikens won by a score of 76-65. The previous season, Xavier was laying -5 points but lost by 14, 61-47. The Billikens are playing excellent defense at home once again this season. In their last game, they held Massachussetts to just 59 points, en route to a 71-59 victory. That was no small feat when considering that the Minutemen entered that game averaging a whopping 86.5 points per game on the road. That win brought the Billikens to 9-3 here for the season with the three losses coming by an average of less than seven points. Naturally, coach Rick Majerus was pleased with his team's effort: "I was real proud of them. For the most part, we controlled the tempo of the game. It was a nice win for us." The Billikens have already beaten a nationally ranked team (Rhode Island was ranked 23 at the time) here this season. They did so by controlling (slowing) the tempo and playing great defense, eventually limiting the Rams to just 61 points. The Billikens wer 12-4 SU/ATS in February the past couple of seasons and are a highly profitable 51-23 ATS in the month of February over the past decade. I believe that they're under-valued again tonight. Look for them to slow down the Musketeers and improve to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. *TV GOW
WISCONSIN GREEN BAY
Game: Valparaiso vs. Wis-Green Bay Game Time: 2/7/2008 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Wis-Green Bay Reason: I'm playing on WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY. The Crusaders won and covered when they hosted the Phoenix last month. However, I expect the revenge-minded Phoenix to have the advantage tonight. In addition to playing on it's homecourt, Wisconsin-Green Bay, which has an impressive 7-2 record in games decided by eight or fewer points, has the schedule in it's favor. The Phoenix last played on Saturday, earning a road win at Detroit. Conversely, Valparaiso just played on Tuesday, suffering an extremely tough 3-point loss vs. Butler. That game, shown on ESPN2, was the first nationally televised game at Valparaiso's Athletics-Recreation Center since Purdue came to town in November 1997. There was a ton of hype and a huge crowd. The Crusaders really fought hard and I expect that they will have "left something on the court." In other words, I won't be surprised if they're a bit flat here. While they earned a "push" in the loss vs. Butler, the Crusaders are now an ugly 0-3-2 ATS their past five games. The Phoenix are 3-1 ATS the last four times they were attempting to avenge a road loss and 12-8 ATS their last 20 in that situation. They're also 4-1 SU/ATS the last five times that they were listed as a home favorite (or pick'em) of three points or less. For the season, they're 7-1 at home, bringing them to 29-10 their last 39 games here. This season, they've outscored opponents by nine points a game on this floor. Look for them to continue their strong homecourt play, earning an important victory and avenging last month's loss.
WASHINGTON STATE
Game: UCLA vs. Washington St. Game Time: 2/7/2008 10:30:00 PM Prediction: Washington St. Reason: I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON STATE. I believe this game means more to the Cougars and I expect them to be the hungrier team. For starters, they've lost two in a row and desperately need to avoid losing three in a row for the first time this season and first time since Tony Bennett became coach. Additionally, they'll have major "revenge" on their minds as the Bruins blew them out at UCLA last month. First place was on the line for that game and the Cougars were 14-0 at the time. Naturally, the Cougars would like nothing more than to avenge that defeat. In addition to having homecourt advantage, the Cougars won't have to deal with Bruins' forward Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, as he is out with a sprained left ankle. As UCLA coach Ben Howland noted: "He guards the best players in this league, night on and out. Losing him we lose a key guy at both ends of the floor." Howland also commented about what a hostile environment he expects to face: "It's a difficult place to play. There'll be a great crowd there." It's hard to find too many negative things to say about UCLA. The Bruins have been pretty ordinary against top defensive teams in the second half of the season the last few years though, going 9-10 ATS the last 19 times they faced a team which allows 64 points or less after 15 or more games have been played. Overall, the Bruins are just 35-41 ATS their last 76 lined games against teams which allow 64 points or less per game. They'll be facing one of the tougher unit's in the league here as the Cougars have allowed a mere 51.2 points per game on this floor. I expect the Cougars to deliver their very best effort tonight and for that to be enough to lead to the minor upset. *False Favorite GOM
NHL
MINNESOTA
Game: Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild Game Time: 2/7/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Wild Reason: I'm laying the price with MINNESOTA. I played on the Wild when they hosted the Stars in early January. At the time, I noted that the Wild and their fans still get a little extra "fired up" when the Stars (formerly the Minnesota North Stars) come to town. Minnesota won that game 6-3. Note that the Wild also won the previous series meeting here, taking that contest by a score of 2-1. Yes, the Stars have been playing well recently and come in on a 4-game winning streak. They haven't been a good bet over the years when on a winning streak though. In fact, after having won three or more consecutive games, the Stars are a money-burning -10.4 net games vs. the moneyline the past few seasons and -29.9 since 1996. It's also worth noting that the Stars will be playing just their third isolated road game (1-game road trip) of the season. That has proven to be a difficult spot for them as they lost both the previous games by scores of 4-3 at Colorado and 5-1 at Nashville. The Wild, 5-2 the last seven times they hosted a team from the Pacific division, have been excellent at home the past few years. During that stretch, they've gone a solid 30-17 when playing a home game with an over/under line of five or less. While the Wild saw their 3-game winning streak snapped last time out, they still played very well. In fact, Coach Lemaire went so far as to say: "I thought we played our best game of the year. I'm really happy the way our players played. We played hard. We got a point." Veteran Brian Rolston had similar feelings: "I thought we took it to them for the majority of the game. We've got to take that out of it. We took a big step tonight..." Look for the Wild to build off that effort tonight, as they continue their strong play and cool off their "rivals" from the Pacific. *Personal Favorite
