BEN BURNS write-ups
HOCKEY
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Game: Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game Time: 1/29/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning Reason: I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. These teams have faced each other once this season. That game, which was also here at Tampa Bay, saw the Sabres win by a score of 4-3. Its important to note that the Lightning were -150 or -155 favorites in that game. Tonight's price is significantly "cheaper" and I feel that offers us excellent value. Despite a win in their final game before the break, the Sabres remain a dismal 2-12 their last 14 games vs. the moneyline. Not surprisingly, they haven't won back to back games in 2008. They're also still dealing with some key injuries, including forwards Tim Connolly and Maxim Afinogenov. The Lightning closed out the first half with a loss to the Senators, the top team in the conference. However, they'd beaten the Sens a week earlier and have still won three of their last four games. They've struggled in this series and know that this is an excellent opportunity to exact some revenge while the Sabres aren't playing their best and aren't at 100%. In addition to being 4-11 when playing a road game with an over/under line of six or greater, the Sabres are just 3-7 when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. I'm backing the revenge-minded home team. *"Line Value" GOM
BEN BURNS
NBA
UNDER knicks/lakers
Game: New York Knicks vs. Los Angeles Lakers Game Time: 1/29/2008 10:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Lakers and Knicks to finish UNDER the number. These teams combined for just 185 points (95-90 Lakers) when they faced each other at New York on 12/23. That game had an over/under line of 203.5 or 204. Looking back at the last 20 series meetings and we find that NONE of them had an over/under line which was greater than 205 points. I feel that tonight's higher number is offering us solid value. The Knicks have seen three of their last four games stay below the total, including each of their last two. Note that the lone one of those games which did finish above the numbe (Boston on 1/21) still finished with just 202 points. Their most recent game was relatively high-scoring, (106-104 loss) however, that came against the up-tempo Warriors, so the total was much higher and the game still fell comfortably beneath the number. The Lakers have also been profitable for "under" bettors recently, as they've seen four of their last five games finish beneath the total. I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair again this evening with the final combined score staying beneath the generous number and the UNDER improving to 13-6 when the Knicks were coming off a game in which they allowed 105 or more points.
OVER sonics/spurs
Game: San Antonio Spurs vs. Seattle SuperSonics Game Time: 1/29/2008 10:05:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on the Spurs and Sonics to finish OVER the total. The Spurs finished below the number yet again last night, continuing their string of "unders." However, one spot which they haven't been staying below the number is when they play the second of back to back games. In fact, they've seen the OVER go 4-1 the last five times they played in that situation with those five games averaging a whopping 214 points each. Tonight should be a good spot to put up some big points as the defending champs will be taking on the defensively-challenged Sonics, who allow an average of 105 per game. Note that the Spurs have seen the OVER go 45-35-4 the last 84 times they were listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. This is a very low over/under number for a Sonics' home game. Their games here have averaged more than 202 points and they typically have over/under lines somewhere in that range. In fact, they've only played two home games with a total ranging from 190-194.5 this season. Both those games finished above the number bringing the OVER to 9-3 the last dozen times the Sonics played a home game with a total in that range. The Sonics, who are smack dab in the middle of a 7-game homestand, have also seen the OVER go 15-9 the past few seasons after having played three or more consecutive road games. This season's lone meeting, which came here in late November, had an over/under line of 199 and finished with 216 points. That brought the OVER to 3-0 the last three series meetings with each of those games producing a minimum of 199 points. I'm expecting another high-scoring affair this evening.
UNDER raptors/wizards
Game: Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards Game Time: 1/29/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Raptors and Wizards to finish UNDER the number. These teams, who will face each other again tomorrow night, have played some high-scoring games against each other in 2007. However, with both Arenas and Ford still out due to injury, I'm expecting a defensive affair this evening. The Wizards have seen the UNDER go 8-5 the last 13 times that they played the front-end of back to back games, most recently combining with the Celtics for just 171 when playing in that situation. The last time that the Raptors played the front end of back to back games, they combined with Atlanta for a mere 167 points. That brought the UNDER to 2-1 the last three times that they played the front-end of back to back games. Those three games averaged less than 172 points and none produced more than 192. Thanks to the game reaching overtime, the Wizards allowed the Bucks to score 105 points last time out. Note that their most recent two home games both stayed below the number and that they've seen the UNDER go 7-3 this season after having allowed 105 or more points in their previous game. For the season, they've seen the UNDER go 14-8 at home, including 3-1 as a home favorite of three points or less. Meanwhile, the Raptors, who haven't played since defeating the Bucks 106-75 on 1/25, have seen the UNDER go 8-3 after scoring 105 or more points and 10-3 after a double-digit win. Look for those numbers to improve this evening.
HOUSTON
Game: Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets Game Time: 1/29/2008 8:35:00 PM Prediction: Houston Rockets Reason: I'm laying the points with HOUSTON. In addition to playing with "double-revenge" the Rockets will be looking to bounce back from an upset loss vs. Utah here on Sunday. Note that the Rockets, who were slight favorites in that game, are a profitable 26-16 ATS the past few seasons when coming off a SU loss when listed as a favorite. Prior to the loss vs. the Jazz, the Rockets had won four straight games and nine of their past 11. The Warriors, who were substantial favorites in each of their last two games, won each of them by only two points. Those two pointspread losses dropped them to 4-9 ATS in 2008. They're now an ugly 13-26 ATS in the month of January the past three seasons. Its also worth noting that the Warriors are just 11-20 ATS the last 31 times that they were coming off a game in which they scored 105 or more points. Despite this season's earlier losses, the Rockets have still won 23 or their past 31 games vs. teams which allow 99 or more points during the second half of the season and 48 of 75 vs. such "defensively-challenged" teams overall. With or without Yao Ming in the lineup, I expect the highly motivated and revenge-minded Rockets to record a convincing victory. *Blowout GOM
BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
PENN STATE
Game: Ohio State vs. Penn State Game Time: 1/29/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Penn State Reason: I'm taking the points with PENN STATE. Without Geary Claxton in the lineup, the Nittany Lions have certainly been struggling lately. However, I feel that has caused this line to become too high. Prior to their recent skid, the Nittany Lions, who easily covered both games against last season's stronger Ohio State team, had won seven straight games. Despite getting pounded by Purdue last time here, they're still 8-3 at home for the season. Conversely, the Buckeyes have lost three straight on the road. Granted, those losses all came vs. tougher opponents. All the same, I don't feel they should be laying this many points on the road. The Nittany Lions know that they won't be getting Claxton back and know that it's time to stop hanging their heads about his loss. As coach Ed DeChellis said: "...we're the ones that have to get us out. It's just not going to happen unless we work hard." Playing in front of a national TV audience and having matched their lowest point total in the 12-year history of the Bryce Jordan Center in their last game here, I expect an extremely motivated effort from the Nittany Lions this evening. They lost by only two points, as 11.5 point underdogs, vs. the Buckeyes here last season. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle once again, improving to 8-3 ATS the last 11 series meetings. *Best Bet
