Ben Burns
SONICS
Game: Utah Jazz vs. Seattle SuperSonics Game Time: 2/13/2008 10:05:00 PM Prediction: Seattle SuperSonics Reason: I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. The Sonics return home off a pair of impressive road games. After a double-digit road victory at Sacramento (as +9 underdogs) the Sonics traveled to Phoenix and stayed within four points of the Suns. Looking to close out the first half on a positive note, I expect them to carry the positive momentum from those games into tonight's contest. Although they lost their last game here, the Sonics have been much better at home all season, scoring more points here while allowing fewer. That's led to a respectable 14-11 ATS mark in 25 games here. Conversely, the Jazz are a poor 11-16 SU/ATS on the road this season. That includes a 13 point loss at Sacramento in their last road game. Not surprisingly, the home team has covered both meetings in this series. The Jazz won convincingly when the teams met at Utah in mid-December. However, the game down to the wire (Jazz won by two) when the teams faced each other at Seattle in November. That "cover" brought the Sonics to a profitable 8-3-1 ATS the last dozen times that they were a host in this series. Note that the Sonics are also a solid 8-4 ATS the last dozen times that they were home underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. On the other hand, the Jazz are just 2-5 ATS the past few seasons when listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range, losing four of those games outright. I look for the revenge-minded Sonics to give their guests all they can handle tonight and won't be surprised if/when they score the outright upset.
*Northwest Division GOM
SONICS
BUCKS
Game: New Orleans Hornets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game Time: 2/13/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks Reason: I'm taking the points with MILWAUKEE. The betting public will be quick to back the Hornets here. After all, they've won two in a row and 11 of 14. Meanwhile, since winning at Memphis on 2/5, the Bucks have managed to lose three in a row. The fact that the majority of bettors won't want to take Milwaukee has given us excellent line value though. A closer look at the Bucks' last three losses shows that they covered in the loss at Dallas and that the two defeats here came by an average of only four points. More importantly, note that the Bucks have been at their best after having lost a few in a row. In fact, they've gone a profitable 7-2 ATS this season after having lost three straight games, winning six of those games outright. After a sizzling streak in January, the Hornets have cooled off in February. Including a loss at Golden State to close out January, they're just 1-4 ATS their last five. Despite the recent close losses, the Bucks remain a respectable 13-10 at home. They had last night off and I expect them to be focused on closing out the first half on a positive note. Conversely, the Hornets played at Chicago last night and are likely looking ahead to returning home to the All Star festivities in New Orleans. Playing with "revenge" from an earlier road loss, look for the Bucks to earn (at least) the cover, improving to 77-53 ATS (59%) the past decade when coming off three or more consecutive losses
*Contrarian GOM
BUCKS
UNDER Lakers/Twolves
Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game Time: 2/13/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Lakers and T-Wolves to finish UNDER the number. The T-Wolves have become competitive in recent weeks due largely to improved play at the defensive end of the floor. Including last night's relatively low-scoring (92-88 loss at NJ) result, that's led to the UNDER going a perfect 7-0 their last seven games. Note that the T-Wolves have also seen the UNDER go 8-3 the last 11 times that they played the second of back to back games. In fact, the most recent time that they played the second game of a back to back situation, the T-Wolves and Bulls combined for a mere 150 points. Despite big games from Bryant, Gasol and co. the Lakers have also been seeing the majority of their games finish below the number. In fact, the UNDER is 5-1 their last six games and 10-4 their last 14. It's also worth noting that the Lakers have seen the UNDER go a profitable 15-4 the last 19 times that they played a road game with an over/under line ranging from 200 to 204.5, including a perfect 5-0 this season. Meanwhile, we find the UNDER at a healthy 30-19-1 the last 50 times that Minnesota played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 200 to 204.5. Look for tonight's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again.
MAGIC
Game: Denver Nuggets vs. Orlando Magic Game Time: 2/13/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Orlando Magic Reason: I'm laying the points with ORLANDO. Having gone just 1-3 through the first four games of their current five-game homestand, the Magic should be extremely hungry to close out the first half with a victory. Additional motivation will be provided from the fact that the Nuggets defeated them at Denver last month. The Magic, who had last night off, are 14-8 ATS on the season when playing with "revenge" and the situation favors them to get some "payback" tonight. The Nuggets, who come off a hard-fought overtime win at Miami, are 0-3 SU/ATS the last three times that they played the second of back to back games. Those three losses weren't close either as they came by margins of 22, 11 and 24 points. Looking back further and we find the Nuggets at just 6-13 SU and 7-12 ATS the last 19 times that they played the second of back to back games. The Magic, who are 8-3 ATS the last 11 times they played a game with an over/under line of 210 or greater, have dominated the Nuggets here in Florida. In fact, dating back to 1992, they've won 14 straight meetings against the Nuggets here, winning by an average of 14 points per game. Look for them to continue that homecourt series domination this evening, improving to 13-7 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game.
BOBCATS
Game: Atlanta Hawks vs. Charlotte Bobcats Game Time: 2/13/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats Reason: I'm laying the points with CHARLOTTE. The Hawks have won both meetings in this series so far this season. However, both those games came at Atlanta. Tonight, the scheduling situation favors the Bobcats to get some "payback," as they had last night off and are now playing at home. Homecourt is highly significant for both these teams, as both are competitive at home but dismal on the road. The Hawks, who come off a hard fought 4-point loss vs. Detroit, are 0-4 SU/ATS the last four times that they played the second of back to back games and 1-6 SU/ATS in that situation since the beginning of December. Most recently, they were crushed by 19 points at Houston. Looking back further and we find them at just 6-14 SU and 7-13 ATS the last 20 times that they played in the second game of a back to back situation. While the Bobcats have lost three of their last four at Atlanta, they've beaten the Hawks three straight times, both SU and ATS, here at Charlotte. Looking back further and we find them at 5-1 SU/ATS in six all-time series meetings here. The Bobcats have thrived as small home favorites, going 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times they were listed as home favorites of -3 points or less and 15-6 SU/ATS in that role the past three seasons. Look for homecourt to be difference tonight as the Bobcats avenge the earlier losses and close out the first half with a much-needed victory.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Game: Drake vs. Southern Illinois Game Time: 2/13/2008 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Southern Illinois Reason: I'm laying the points with SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. Drake comes in with the better record and higher ranking. However, there's a reason why Southern Illinois is the favorite. Indeed, the Salukis are 11-0 the last 11 times they hosted the Bulldogs. They're also an awesome 59-1 at SIU Arena vs. conference opponents since the start of the 2001-02 season. Not surprisingly, they've won 12 of their last 13 games when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. During that stretch the Salukis, who come off an ugly loss at Creighton, have won 10 of 15 when coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent. Looking back further and we find them at an impressive 45-20 SU when coming off a loss in conference play. The Bulldogs have certainly enjoyed great success in conference play. However, Southern Illinois is the one team in the Missouri Valley Conference that doesn't need to play much help defense against any foe, and that will help immensely against a Drake offense that relies on taking advantage of opponents' help on "cutters and drivers." The Salukis are not going to win the Valley title, which is a blow to the ego of this proud program. However, they can regain a little dignity by taking down Drake. Look for them to bounce back from the Creighton loss in a big way as they continue their excellent play on this floor and homecourt dominance in this series.
*Personal Favorite
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
CONNECTICUT
Game: Notre Dame vs. Connecticut Game Time: 2/13/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Connecticut Reason: I'm laying the points with CONNECTICUT. Both teams are currently playing well and Notre Dame leads the Big East in scoring. However, the Huskies have held held their last five opponents to an average of just 62.4 points AND are playing with "revenge" from an earlier loss at Notre Dame. Note that the Huskies, who have improved greatly during that time, are a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times that they were attempting to avenge a road loss. The Huskies, who are a perfect 5-0 ATS their last five, are also 9-3 ATS the last dozen times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. The Irish snuck by Marquette in their past game. They failed to cover though, falling to 2-4 ATS their last six games. Note that Notre Dame is also now 2-5 ATS when coming off a victory over a conference opponent. The Irish have played just once at Gampel Pavilion, losing 85-65 during the 1995-96 season. They're 1-7 all-time against the Huskies in Connecticut, mostly playing at the Hartford Civic Center. The Huskies have beaten the likes of Marquette, Indiana, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Syracuse and Georgia Tech during their current winning streak. Look for them to continue their excellent recent play, avenging the earlier loss and extending their homecourt dominance in this series.
*Big East GOW
CONNECTICUT
