BRIAN GABRIELLE
PGA
Take Jonathan Byrd over Ernie Els (13-8), 1/6 unit:
Els only has a .429 winning percentage in this tournament. But there?s something more to this pick. I see Els as a bit of a tragic figure, born at the wrongtime. We saw the latest example of this in Dubai,where Els plunked his ball in the water and Tiger won.You don?t look at the guy and think: killer instinct.And this tournament is about killer instinct. It?s about putting your opponent away when you have the chance, not giving it to him. Byrd?s never played in this tournament, so we don?t have anything to draw on there. But he?s been playing well the last year or so,including a win at the John Deere. If this upset happens, it would be somewhere between George Mason beating Michigan State and George Mason beating Connecticut in the 2006 NCAA tournament in terms of magnitude. Take Arron Oberholser over Mike Weir (13-8), 1/6 unit:Oberholser has only one win and three losses at the Accenture but Weir?s not much better with six wins and seven losses. Oberholser?s been off the radar and hasn?t played this year. He had back and hand problems last year but still had a pretty good year, with five top-10s and almost $2 million in earnings. So he?s a real wild card on the health front and the fact that he hasn?t played since last October. Weir?s been playing well enough to win this season and maybe the format will help him but he was playing well last year prior to this tournament and lost in the first round to Paul Casey. Last week Weir missed the cut at the Northern Trust Open. Take Mark Calcavecchia over Aaron Baddeley (6-5), 1/6unit: Calc?s won four and lost four in Accenture?spast. Baddeley?s won two and lost one. It?s been up and down in ?08 for Calc so far with T10, 68, MC, MCand a T20 in Arizona. Bads has also been inconsistent with T12, MC, T13, MC and a T46 last week in L.A. This match is another toss up---I?m going with theunderdog.
