Burns
Nebraska
NC State - Main Event
UNDER fordham/st louis
RAPTORS
BUCKS *Contrarian GOW
UNDER Suns/Lakers
BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
NEBRASKA
Game: Kansas State vs. Nebraska Game Time: 2/20/2008 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Nebraska Reason: I'm taking the points with NEBRASKA. By now, everyone knows about the Wildcats' freshman phenom Michael Beasley. It's true that Beasley has been a "beast" and that his team has been playing well. However, I feel that all the hype about Beasley has caused Kansas State to be over-valued here. The Wildcats have lost their last two road games and could easily get caught looking ahead to an upcoming stretch that includes road games at Baylor and Kansas, sandwiched by a home date with Texas. Overall, the Wildcats are 2-3 SU/ATS in true road games and one of those victories came by only two points. The Huskers lost their last game here vs. Missouri by eight points. However, the Tigers had some extra motivation as the Huskers had beaten them at Missouri. This time, its the Huskers who are playing with "revenge" from a 15 point loss at Kansas State. Looking back further and we find that Nebraska beat both Texas Tech and Iowa State fairly easily in their two previous home games and lost by only two vs. a strong Baylor team before that. It should also be noted that these teams both had a common non-conference opponent (Oregon) and that the Huskers beat the Ducks while the Wildcats lost to them. Including the win vs. the Ducks, the Huskers are a perfect 4-0 ATS since 2006 when listed as home underdogs of four points or less, winning three of those games outright and losing the other (vs. Texas last January) by only one point. Huskers center Aleks Maric stepped up and accepted blame for the Huskers' recent loss to Iowa State. I expect the 6-11 and 270 pound Maric, who leads the team with points and rebounds, to have a big game against Beasley tonight and for the Huskers to defend their home floor.
NC STATE
Game: North Carolina vs. N.C. State Game Time: 2/20/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: N.C. State Reason: I'm taking the points with NC State. Last season, the Tar Heels visited North Carolina State as the nation's No. 3 team with a healthy Ty Lawson in the lineup - and they lost outright. This season, the Tar Heels are again ranked #3 but will be without the injured Lawson. Of course, the Tar Heels are still awfully good, even without Lawson. That being said, several other players have also been dealing with injury or illness and I feel that this evening's line is too high, providing us excellent value with the revenge-minded home underdog. The Tar Heels won big against V-Tech on Saturday. However, the previous three games without him in the lineup were all closely contested, including a loss vs. Duke, a double OT win vs. Clemson and a 1-point win at Virginia. With the pointspread loss at Virginia, the Tar Heels fell to 4-7 ATS the last 11 times they were listed as road favorites in the The Tar Heel's blowout of V-Tech has helped keep this line generously high, as has NC State's current 3-game SU/ATS losing streak. The Wolfpack have historically been profitable when coming in off a losing streak though as we find them at 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season after having failed to cover the spread in their previous three games and 19-9 SU in that role over the past decade. During that time, they 11-5 ATS after suffering three consecutive SU losses. Over the last 12 months, dating back to an 81-56 upset win vs. V-Tech on 2/18/07, the Wolfpack have gone 16-3 when listed as the home team. NONE of those three losses came by more than seven points. Look for the inspired Wolfpack to give their instate rivals all they can handle here, improving to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they attempted to avenge a road loss of 20 points or more. *Main Event
UNDER fordham/st louis
Game: Fordham vs. St. Louis Game Time: 2/20/2008 8:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on St. Louis and Fordham to finish UNDER the number. At first glance, this number looks pretty low. However, it's low for good reason. Fordham managed only 53 points vs. Charlotte last time out. That was enough to earn a victory though as the defense allowed only 51. That game stayed below the number and brought the UNDER to 4-1 the Rams' last five games and 7-3 in their conference games. Note that the Rams have seen the UNDER go 6-0 the last six times (games with a total) they failed to score 60 points in their previous game and 16-6 in that situation the past three seasons. St. Louis comes off a rare high-scoring game, losing 88-77. Note that was just the second time an opponent had scored 80 or more points against them for the season. The previous time, the Billikens responded by allowing only 48 (52-48 final vs. Long Beach State on 12/1) in the following game. That brought the UNDER to 5-1 the last six times they played (with a total) after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game. Additionally, note that both those high-scoring games occurred on the road (at Kent State and at Massachusetts) and the Billikens have played very low-scoring games at home, where they tend to really S-L-O-W down the tempo. In fact, in their last game here they held George Washington to a mere 38 points. Naturally, that 63-38 final score stayed well beneath the number. For the season, the Billikens have allowed only 56.5 points per game on this floor while seeing the UNDER go 8-4 in 12 games which had a posted over/under line. Looking back further and we find that the UNDER is a profitable 25-10 the last 35 times that the Billikens played a home game which had an over/under line. I'm expecting another defensive affair this evening with the UNDER improving to 21-7 the last 28 times that the Rams played a lined game vs. a team which allows 64 points or less. *A-10 Conference Total of the Month
NBA
RAPTORS
Game: Orlando Magic vs. Toronto Raptors Game Time: 2/20/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Toronto Raptors Reason: I'm laying the points with TORONTO. The Raptors catch the Magic in a tough spot here as they come off a huge win at Detroit last night. The Raptors will have "revenge" on their minds as the Magic beat them here back in early November. Note that the Raptors had been a perfect 7-0 ATS the previous seven series meetings though. Overall, the Raptors are a highly profitable 31-10-3 ATS against Southeast division opponents the past three seasons. Additionally, note that the Raptors are playing a lot better these days than they were earlier in the season, closing out the first half by crushing the Nets. That brought them to 7-3 SU/ATS their last 10 home games and 14-5-1 ATS their last 20 in the month of February, 20-7-2 ATS their last 29. Its also worth noting that they're 5-2 SU/ATS on the season when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Bosh tends to thrive against the Magic, averaging 32.3 points and 11.0 rebounds in his last four games in this series. Additionally, Calderon figures to be playing with a chip on his shoulder after being overlooked for the All Star game. Behind big games from both Bosh and Calderon, I expect the Raptors to avenge the earlier loss and resume their dominance in this series. *Personal Favorite
BUCKS
Game: Detroit Pistons vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game Time: 2/20/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks Reason: I'm taking the points with MILWAUKEE. The betting public will be quick to back the Pistons here. After all, the Pistons have the best record in the Central while the Bucks have the worst one. Additionally, the Pistons got blown out last night and the general feeling will be that they can't lose twice in a row. I typically see things a little differently though. For starters, the Pistons are an ugly 7-13 ATS their last 20 games and just 2-3 SU/ATS when playing the second of back to back games in 2008. One of those losses came by a score of 89-65 at New York, showing that they are capable of losing to a "last-place team." Another of the losses came at Chicago, which followed a home loss vs. Sacramento the previous day, showing that they're fully capable of losing two games in two days. I also feel that the All Star layoff should have done the Bucks some good. Not only were they struggling to win games before the break but they had several players who had been dealing with some nagging injuries and who will have benefitted from the rest. Note that we already saw a couple of last place teams, (New York and Minnesota) which had both been struggling before the break, both come out and score outright upsets to start the second half. I believe that the Bucks are capable of playing a lot better than their record indicates and that they too will be refreshed by the time off. They'll certainly have plenty to play for. Despite their poor overall record, the Bucks are still very much alive for a playoff spot. In fact, if they did manage to sneak into one of the top eight spots, the Pistons could be a possible first round matchup. Additional motivation will be provided by the fact that the Pistons crushed them twice already this season. Despite a loss vs. the Pistons here back on 12/1, Milwaukee has been much better at home all season, finishing the first half with a winning overall record here. The Bucks know that they'll be facing the Pistons at The Palace on Friday, meaning that if they want to avoid the season sweep, they'd better come to play tonight. While the Bucks entered the second half on a losing streak, it's worth noting that they're 8-2 ATS (6-4 SU) after having lost their previous three games. The line has already climbed over night and I feel that value lies with the home underdog. *Contrarian GOW
UNDER Suns/Lakers
NO WRITEUP YET
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