Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 200,000♦ New Mexico
2. 50,000♦ Florida Atlantic
3. 50,000♦ Maryland
4. 50,000♦ Bucks
1. New Mexico- Lobos are rolling right now, and find themselves in the perfect position to gain ground on UNLV in the MWC standings with a win tonight against a sputtering Air Force squad.
Not only has New Mexico been a great bet in this series, going 7-1 ATS over their last 8 meetings, but the Lobos are playing excellent basketball right now, winners of 4 in a row SUATS! Fact of the matter is New Mexico is not only winning, but crushing their opposition, beating Colorado State and Wyoming by a combined 85 points! Then, they went on to win at San Diego State 73-63 as 1-point road favorites. Followed finally by an easy 20-point home win over Texas Christian Saturday... 4 impressive victories anyway you look at it!
Biggest issue for the Falcons is just keeping up with Lobos surging offense. We saw this in their first meeting, as the Lobos took a quick 32-17 halftime lead and never looked back. This time around, the Lobos are arguablly playing even better basketball, averaging 77 ppg on 50% shooting over their last 5 games! Wondering about Air Force's numbers over that same span - just 55 ppg on 44% shooting.
Match ups are also a big issue for the Falcons, as they have no one who can stick with J.R. Giddens. He had a solid game in their first meeting (15 points, 12 boards), but expect even better numbers tonight, as he's been on fire, averaging 27 ppg and 10 boards over his last 3 contests! While some teams can take advantage of the Lobos lack of size, the Falcons aren't one of them. Like New Mexico, their leading rebounder is also a guard, 6'6 G Henke, but unlike the Lobos, he averages only 4 rebounds per game!
Bottom line, more of the same tonight, as the Lobos are clearly the superior team here. Air Force will try to slow the game down, but the way the Lobos have been shooting (50% from floor 45% from 3-point L5 games) there's little hope of that. It may be slightly closer this time around, but much like their first meeting, New Mexico goes up early and never looks back.
Take New Mexico comfortably over Air Force as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Florida Atlantic- Despite a relatively short trip to the visting Owls, it might as well be an ocean apart, as there's nothing "golden" about the Golden Panthers on the road this season, going 0-9 SU this season. True, their 5-4 ATS on the highway, but that's thanks to some bloated double-digit spreads. With the line being relatively close in this contest, the Panthers road woes remerge tonight.
First and foremost, Florida International forgets how to score the basketball when they travel, averaging a pathetic 58 ppg on 40% away. Guys, we've seen them fail time and again on the road, managing only 50 points at Denver for example! Florida Atlantic's defense isn't great, but they're much better at home, allowing 71 ppg on a respectable 42% shooting. Solid home wins and covers over Arkansas State and New Orleans only stregthen my point.
Second, the Owls remember well their last meeting, where FIU beat them handily 69-58 back on January 5th. Payback is a bitch, and the Panthers are about to find out how bad it can get tonight on the road. Remember guys, the Panthers are a different team in hostile territory, and the Owls will be looking forward to some redemption in this one.
Finally, if you look back at the tape, its clear the Panthers played one of their best game of the season at home against Florida Atlantic, shooting 55% from the floor and the 3-point line! They also were able to limit both Owls leading scorers Monroe and Graham to single digit disappointing efforts... Look for a much more focused effort on both ends of the floor tonight in Boca Raton. Owls protect their house and grab the cash in this one!
Take Florida Atlantic over Florida International in this Sun Belt match up.
3. Maryland- Payback has been common theme throughout Wednesday's card, and in yet another example of a solid revenge oppurtunity, Maryland gets their shot at redemption hosting Virginia Tech tonight.
We all remember their last match up, as the Hokies defeneded their house, beating the Terrapins outright 67-66 in Blacksburg. Now the tables have turned, as Virginia Tech gets a taste of their own medicine tonight in College Park. Just ask Florida State, N.C. State, or Virginia how hard it is to beat Maryland at home, as all three fell by double digits in the Terrapins last 3 home games!
Clearly the biggest difference tonight is the Hokies will not be able to contain the Terrapins offense like they did in Blacksburg, allowing only 66 points on 40% shooting (16% from 3-point). Maryland averages 75 ppg on 47% shooting (37% from 3-point) in College Park, and lately their offense has been even better, led by G Greivis Vasquez and his outstanding play at the point guard position.
Speaking of Vasquez, he's the catalyst of this Terrapins offense, and the fact he had a terrible game in their first meeting (2 of 14 shooting 10 points just 3 assits) only serves to motivate the surging guard in this one.
Finally, the Terrapins defense is what seals the deal, allowing just 64 ppg on 37% shooting at home this season. Virginia Tech managed only 35% shooting AT HOME against this Terrapins defense in their last meeting! What do you think will happen tonight on the road, where Va. Tech averages only 39% shooting this season?! In the end, Maryland has the home court, and enough motivation to blow this Hokies team out of the building... Expect them to play accordingly!
Take Maryland BIG over Virginia Tech in this ACC showdown.
4. Bucks- Everyone seems to think the Pistons are going to blow the Bucks away tonight in Milwaukee, but I'm not convinced. True, Detroit lost badly at home yesterday to Orlando, but playing in the tailend of a back-to-back against a fully rested Bucks squad is not going to be as easy as some believe.
Granted, the Bucks struggled mightily going into the break, losing 7 of their last 8 SU, but several things did stand out. First, they got covers against both New Orleans and at Dallas, two of the West's best teams. And second, while the Bucks have been garbage on the road, they're solid at home, going 13-11 SU and 11-13 ATS. Not great numbers by any means, but much better than most people give them credit for.
Another issue I have with the Pistons is that despite winning games SU, they haven't been very impressive on the road of late against the number, going just 2-7 ATS over their last 9 on the highway! This should immediately tell you the Pistons are overvalued on the road, and that trend continues tonight.
Finally, if you look over their home vs. away stats, the fact of the matter is these two teams aren't that far apart. Milwaukee scores a bit more than Detroit, while the Pistons defense is slightly better. Granted this is by no means a dead-set way of handicapping basketball, but it helps prove my point that the Pistons are far from unbeatable on the road.
Bottom line, everyone will be jumping all over the Pistons tonight, especially with what looks like a favorable line, but don't be fooled! The Bucks are solid at home, and coming off a nice restful weekend, they'll give a "max-effort" tonight in an attempt to start the second half of the season better than their first.
Take the Bucks plus the points over the Pistons in this NBA match up.