SERVICE PLAYS FOR WED. 2/20

GIANTS007

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Dave Malinsky comp 4* play


GAME: Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns Feb 20, 2008 9:00PM
SPORT: National Basketball Assoc.

PICK: Los Angeles Lakers

Offered at: 3.5

REASON FOR PICK: 4* L.A. LAKERS over PHOENIX


The fact that the early line is holding steady here tells us that the marketplace has an entirely different view of Shaq joining the Suns than we do. We are not sure that they have helped themselves at all in the long run, and certainly do not believe that they will be ready to match what the Lakers bring tonight. It is a case of having to take a step back before they can go forwards, and there is absolutely an ?if? attached.

Adding a 35-year old center that weights over 300 pounds and clearly has his best days behind him was not a talent upgrade for Phoenix over Shawn Marion, and it creates real adjustment issues for a team that plays the way that the Suns do. Yes, getting Marion out of the locker room might be good karma, but there could be some harsh realities ahead. It begins tonight as they try to somehow make the chemistry puzzle work, and this is hardly the opponent that Mike D?Antoni would like to be facing right now. But the coach is caught in a real bind, with this game followed by the Celtics and Pistons, and he acknowledges that they are going to be a work in progress - ?Every day is one step closer to the team we want to be. There are going to be bumps in the road, but we have 29 games to get it straight and 29 games to win also. We want to make sure it doesn?t become the Shaq Show ? that it?s still the Phoenix Suns Show ? and find that balance that makes it all work.?

The Lakers are much closer to finding their balance, having had Pau Gasol on board for a couple of weeks now. The assimilation has been seamless so far ? in games with him in the lineup in which they have had at least one day of preparation time for their opponent they have gone 5-0 SU and ATS, beating the spread by 49 points, and averaging 113.0 per game in the process. Now it is a back-to-back setting, but instead of that being a negative it turns around here ? it is a plus for them to have been on the court after the All Star break, and the first half vs. Atlanta on Tuesday might have been as good as any NBA team has played all season. They exploded to a 73-37 advantage that enabled Phil Jackson to give the starters most of the second half off, and that means plenty of physical energy as well as having had another good chance to develop chemistry.

If there is any positive at all to having Shaq on board for Phoenix it is in the form of tougher defense around the basket, but even that is not a factor at all tonight ? Gasol will take him away from his comfort zone, and he can get lost guarding someone more than 10 feet from the basket. It all helps the better and more cohesive team to win this game outright, with the points being offered a nice cushion. A 3* plus the points and a 1* Money Line would be the proper way to go here.
 

the duke

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Three2Won | CBB Sides

dime bet 567 Miss. St 2.0 (-120) BetUS vs 568 Mississippi

Write Up

Three2Won | CBB Sides

dime bet 567 Miss. St 2.0 (-120) BetUS vs 568 Mississippi

Ladies and Gentleman, we are entering High Percentage Heaven tonight. We have a strong chance of catching a road-win in the SEC.

I want to build this wager from the point of view of Chris Warren, the tiny guard for Mississippi. He's important to us for several reasons, but there are two reasons we need to focus on him in particular.

#1: He is their leading scorer and assist-maker. He is their entry point.

#2: He is the main reason why Mississippi is ranked #210 in the nation in 3-point FG% Defense.


When I tell you that he will be physically unable to stop Mississippi State at the point, I want you to imagine 6'4" Jamont Gordon on his ass. Keep in mind that Warren is only 5'10" and 188 pounds.

A quick look at Jamont Gordon in the last meeting will tell the tale: He had only 13 points, but that was because he was running a stunning 6-1 Assist to turnover ratio in that game (with 2 steals). He owned the floor because there is nobody that can front him on the perimeter. Chris Warren has NO CHANCE.

Here are a few of the out-takes from the media in that last match-up: Warren was toast!

"While Rhodes and Varnado shut down Ole Miss' frontcourt, the 6-foot-4, 230-pound Gordon bullied Rebels freshman point guard Chris Warren, who is 5-10 and 188 pounds."

See the mis-match developing?

"Gordon was unstoppable at times, putting away the Rebels midway through the second half when he had two 3-pointers, a thunderous running dunk and an assist in transition on a long bounce pass through traffic that put the Bulldogs up 13 points during a 5-minute span."

The theme continues!

This quote is from the Mississippi coach!

"We had no answer for Jamont," Kennedy said. "He got his shots where he wanted and when he wanted all night long. He's so strong. Chris was out of his element."


I understand that the world is fearing revenge in this game, and that's why the Bulldogs are underdogs, but you cant simply force your guard to grow 6 inches in a months time, and you cannot ignore the fact that Mississippi has only two power positions in the frontcourt, and if they get into foul trouble, then Varnado and Rhodes will own the paint, and all youll have is a bunch of mid-sized Rebel players flickering on the edges, trying to find seams in the defense.

They will have to shoot low percentage, re-directable shots, and this is just enough disruption to get us the edge we need in this game.

Mississippi has only 2 frontcourt players in the top 7 minute eaters. When they get taken out, then the talent level drops, and the team falls under the direction of Chris Warren and Polynice.

From there, one of the top Field Goal defenses take full control!

Why would I think that we could get the Frontcourt players out of our way tonight?

Because Mississippi State's main goal in this game will be to hit the high percentage shots, by driving Gordon, on the hapless Warren, and penetrating right into the starting Center and Forwards of Mississippi.

You see, there is no protection for Dwayne Curtis and Kenny Williams when they are shielded by a tiny guard that CANNOT PREVENT THE INROADS OF A 6'4" Forward in a Guard's body.

We are dealing with a systematic weakness that the books are not picking up on!

Chris Warren is Mississippi's best player on the perimeter. Hes the cog in their offense, and he is the spearhead of their attack.

And he is a LIABILITY tonight.

SEC opponents have begun to hammer Warren and it came as a direct result of the smashing that he took from Gordon in the last meeting.

Missy has lost 6 of their last 7 SEC games to teams like SC, AUBURN (Twice), and ALABAMA. Why did this happen?

No need to look no farther than Chris Warren:

*Auburn limited him to 6 shots!
*South Carolina held him to 5-19 from the field
*Presbyterian limited him to only 2 freaking shots! Losing by only 11?

Over the last 4 games, he is 13-13 on Assists and Turnovers.

After the Bulldog loss, the SEC realized that they could dismantle Chris Warren and head right into the teeth of the Rebel defense.


On Offense teams. blow past him, shoot over him, and out-muscle him.

On Defense teams...front him hard, alter his shots, and contest his passes.


Stat break!

Mississippi State is the REAL DEAL on DEFENSE!

*They are the #2 FG % Defense in the freaking country!

*They are the 12th Ranked team in the nation in Rebounding Margin!

*They are limiting teams to 31% from the ARC (#31 nationally).

So when we add the imminent failure of Warren to the equation, I suppose you can begin to see that there is a pretty sensible reason for backing the Bulldogs in this spot.

I want to stress this again:

Top minute eaters for Mississippi: GUARD, CENTER, GUARD, GUARD, FORWARD, GUARD AND GUARD.

What happens to Mississippi when those two BIG GUYS get attacked? THEY HAVE TO DEFEND OR GET OUT OF THE WAY!

In the last meeting those two big guys got into foul trouble, because they were shocked by the penetration. Then they went out, and Missy started flopping about like a dying fish.

Look what Varnado said after the game:

"They were clever about going in the hole," Varnado said. "They were doing all these acrobatic moves, you know. But they still wasn't scoring. So if I didn't block the shot, I altered it and made them miss."


When the Big Guys came back, Mississippi State went back to work on them, and THEY LET THE BULLDOGS PASS!

You see, one thing leads to another!

*The perimeter guys for Missy cant stop the perimeter inroads of the Bulldogs.

*This creates pressure on the Rebel front court.

*This then creates fouls and takes the best frontcourt players out of the game.

*Then Varnado and Rhodes destroy whats left.
Gordon then runs wild, draws defenders, and dumps to the open man.


The fact that Gordon passed a no look to an open player under the hoop is a sign of a psychological over-confidence due to the operational failure of Mississippis defense.

Check this quote out (again):

"Jamont Gordon had 13 points and six assists and combined with Rhodes and Varnado to harass and mug the Rebels from Varnado's opening block to Gordon's no-look, over-the-shoulder pass that Rhodes powered home to end Ole Miss' final rally.

And this:

"...and was showboating for the crowd as Mississippi State shot 69 percent in the second half."

This was not because Missy gave up.

It was becuase they couldn't stop the Bulldogs.

You should see all the lay-ups in the second half!!!!

WE will be in High Percentage Heaven tonight!
 

the duke

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Rocketman Sports


NCAAB
3* NC Charlotte -1
3* Illinois State -9

NHL
3* Minnesota -115
 

GIANTS007

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Chicago Hotsides

7-4 last night....unfortunately lost all 4 bets due to the 5 unit bet going down in flames...Clemson.

NCAA totals 4-0 yesterday.

NHL 4-1 YTD

(7-4 incl. 2 mixed NBA/NCAA MLP Wins)

Will update ytd record w/ units later in day....going for breakfast now.


Wednesday:

2 units Wisconsin -1 -130

more to come.
 

GIANTS007

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RYAN - COMP PLAY


Detroit U vs. Wright State (NCAAB) - Feb 20, 2008 7:00 PM EST

Play: Point Spread: -9.5/-105 Wright State Pick Title: Wright State wins big time
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Wright State ? AiS shows a 75% probability that WST will win this game by 10 or more points over Detroit. Based on the AiS WST has an 82% probability that they will hit 47% or better from the field. Note that Detroit is 2-13 ATS in road games when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 70-34 ATS for 67% since 2002. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after allowing 65 points or less 5 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 125 points or less. Take Wright State.
 
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the duke

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Matt Fargo

Florida Intl vs. Florida Atlantic (NCAAB) - Feb 20, 2008 7:00 PM EST

Play: Point Spread: -4/-110 Florida Atlantic

Florida Atlantic is coming off a loss at South Alabama on Saturday, the second best team in the conference with a 13-2 record. Prior to that the Owls had won five straight games and were on a solid roll of eight wins in 10 games with one of those losses coming against Western Kentucky, the best team in the conference. The Owls are 9-2 at home this season and have won six straight games at the ?The Burrow?. The home team is 20-5 in Florida Atlantic games this season.

Conversely, the home team is 17-7 in Florida International games as the Golden Panthers bring in a 0-9 road record into this rivalry game. They come into this one riding a two-game winning streak but it does them little good considering they have been off for a week and any momentum that was built has been lost. Florida International has won three straight games against Division I teams only once since the 1999-2000 season. It has gone 1-14 following two straight wins, losing those games by an average of 15.1 ppg.

Florida International won the first meeting this season and the loss dropped Florida Atlantic to 0-4 in conference play at the time, but as mentioned, the Owls have been playing much better of late and will be looking to add to its current one-game advantage over the Golden Panthers in the league standings. Right now the Owls are 9th overall in the conference and a win will bump them all the way up to a tie for 5th. Seeds four through eight get to host a first round tournament game making this one a must win.

These teams are complete opposites in styles and that no doubt favors the home team. The Golden Panthers are ranked 12th in the conference in scoring at 64.6 ppg and that plummets to 58 ppg on 40.9 percent shooting in their nine road games. Meanwhile, the Owls are 8th, averaging 70.1 ppg and that goes to 77 ppg on 48.9 percent shooting in home games. Recent play has expanded the margin even more as over the last five games, the Owls are averaging 85 ppg compared to 58.4 ppg for the Golden Panthers.

Florida International is 13th in the Sun Belt in turnovers per game with 18.4 and its 0.68 assist/turnover ratio is ranked 310th in the country. That ratio dips to a horrendous 0.50 in road games while the Owls have a solid 1.03 ratio at home. Florida Atlantic has covered its last four games coming off a loss while the Golden Panthers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games coming off a win against the number. They are a dismal 1-10 ATS playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last two seasons. Play Florida Atlantic Owls 1 Unit
 

VinnyRed16

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RYAN


Detroit U vs. Wright State (NCAAB) - Feb 20, 2008 7:00 PM EST

Play: Point Spread: -9.5/-105 Wright State Pick Title: Wright State wins big time
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Wright State ? AiS shows a 75% probability that WST will win this game by 10 or more points over Detroit. Based on the AiS WST has an 82% probability that they will hit 47% or better from the field. Note that Detroit is 2-13 ATS in road games when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 70-34 ATS for 67% since 2002. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after allowing 65 points or less 5 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 125 points or less. Take Wright State.

i am actually LOVING Detroit U to win this one outright!!!! Wright St. doesnt even stand a chance!!!! meow meow meow :nono:
 

louisvillekid

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do any of you guys keep a tally of what these touts are doing? like there +/- units for each month. i'm curious as to who is showing a decent profit each month, even if its a small profit i'm curious.

thanks
 

GIANTS007

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*** MY PLAYS FOR TODAY ***

---CBB-------
(7*) N TEXAS -1
(6*) S FLORIDA +7-
(5*) DELAWARE +15

---NBA-------
(6*) CELTICS -2-

---NHL-------
(7*) DALLAS -170
 

VinnyRed16

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do any of you guys keep a tally of what these touts are doing? like there +/- units for each month. i'm curious as to who is showing a decent profit each month, even if its a small profit i'm curious.

thanks

Steve Budin is the best. Just follow him and you will be golden!!:SIB Not to brag, but i am on fire as well. I went 2-0 last night, winning a total of 8 units net profit. I will start releasing my plays if you are interested :0corn :nono:
 

GIANTS007

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Steve Budin is the best. Just follow him and you will be golden!!:SIB Not to brag, but i am on fire as well. I went 2-0 last night, winning a total of 8 units net profit. I will start releasing my plays if you are interested :0corn :nono:

WHAT ARE YOU A TOUT?????

:nono: :nono: :nono:

YOU COME IN HERE CLAIMING YOUR ON FIRE AFTER 2 PLAYS AND HAVENT STOPED REMINDING US - MEOW MEOW
 

mpf861

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KELSO

25* St Louis (CBB)
5* Mich St
4* Eastern Kentucky
3* LA Lakers
 

GIANTS007

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wunderdog comp


Game: New York Knicks at Philadelphia (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: New York Knicks +6.5 (-110)



The Knicks still aren't putting many games in the win column, but have been doing so against the sub-.500 teams on the road on a regular basis. Since the first of the year the Knicks are 10-3-1 ATS on the road and that includes 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS over the sub-.500 teams. On the season the Knicks margin on the road against sub-.500 teams is just -1.1 point per game! Philadelphia saw a five-game winning streak go up in flames on the road in Minnesota last night, and the Knicks won a momentum building thriller on the road in OT down in Washington. Like the Knicks in this spot as they have a shot to win this one, so we will take the points here.
 
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