Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 400,000♦ Bradley
2. 50,000♦ St. Joseph's
3. 50,000♦ Wake Forest
4. 50,000♦ Hornets
1. Bradley- Great spot for Bradley, which finds itself in the perfect position to get some real revenge on a Missouri State team that's struggling right now. When I say "revenge" I mean it, as the Bears have won (and covered) against the Braves in 4 straight meetings, including once already this season & an 8-point win in Peoria last season. Tonight its payback time, and the way these two teams are playing right now, the timing couldn't better...
Missouri State has lost 4 of its last 5 games SU and all 5 ATS, including getting destroyed at Evansville 84-65 as 6-point favorites! They're playing garbage ball right now, scoring 61 ppg on just 37% shooting over that span. Not only that, but they've letup bigtime on defense, allowing 70 ppg on a ridiculous 49% shooting. They allow those kind of numbers here tonight, and they'll get blown out of the gym, plain and simple.
Bradley meanwhile is surging, winners of 5 straight (4-1 ATS), and playing like it. Remember the Bears blowout loss at Evansville mentioned above? Well, the Braves are coming off a 72-59 win and cover at Evansville Saturday, for those of you who like to compare opponents in-common. Also, while Bradley may be only 7-5 SU in Peoria this season, they're 39-19-3 ATS over their last 61 home games, not to mention the home team is 7-1 ATS over their last 8 meetings in this series!
Also, consider the match ups are right for Bradley, as Missouri State is a frontcourt-heavy team that doesn't rebound the ball particularly well. The Braves didn't have their second-leading scorer last time these two met, G Daniel Ruffin, who's 19 points 6 asissts and 6 rebounds against Evansville propelled the Braves to victory. When Bradley has their 4-guard attack firing on all cylinders, especially at home, they're extremely tough to beat.
Finally, its hard to ignore the fact that Missouri State is 1-10 ATS over their last 11 road games & 7-19 ATS over their last 26 games overall. With all the factors mentioned above, from revenge, to home court, to their recent play, to the trends... How could you possibly side with anyone but Bradley in this match up?! Look for the Braves to protect their house and grab the cash tonight in Peoria!
Take Bradley comfortably over Missouri State as your top-rated play of the day.
2. St. Joseph's- While I like what Duquesne has done this season, they're in the midst of a slump, losers of 4 of their last 6 SUATS. I myself wondered how effective coach Everhart's "1040" pressure system would work over the course of a season. His quick substitutions keep his players fresh, but never allow for anyone to get into an offensive rythmn. It appears as though it may be starting to back-fire, as the Dukes looked pathetic at St. Bonaventure, a team they should've crushed as 11-point favorites, but lost handily 74-59.
More of the same tonight, as it appears even the players may be starting to lose faith in coach Everhart's system. St. Joseph's is a rock-solid, fundamentally sound match up nightmare for this Duquesne squad... Exactly the type of team they don't want to see after a devastating St. Bonaventure loss.
Why are they match up nightmare? Because coach Martelli's bigmen are playing well, and while Shawn James is a shot-blocking machine, he'll have his work cut out for him against a deep and talented Hawks frontline of Pat Calathes, Ahmad Nivins, and Rob Ferguson. Coach Everhart has to make a choice, either get overpowered with only James on the court, or go against his system and start two forwards... Either way this Dukes team is in trouble.
Finally, the one edge the Dukes might have had was with Kojo Mensah, their transfer guard, but not so much anymore. He got benched for a time against St. Bonaventure for lack of intensity, and coach Everhart may be dealing with some disgruntled players who want more than just 22+ minutes per game in his quick-substitution system. This game has all the makings of a serious collapse for the Dukes, and the Hawks are more than happy to do it.
Take St. Joseph's plus the points over Duquesne in this A-10 match up.
3. Wake Forest- While the Deacons have been up-and-down this season, one thing you cannot deny is their play at the Lawrence Joel Coliseum, where they're 12-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS this season. They're coming off impressive ACC home wins and covers against Miami-Florida and Florida State, two teams that already beat Georgia Tech SUATS this season. More of the same tonight and here's why:
The fact that the Yellow Jackets have been a terrible bet on the road for some time now cannot be ignored, going 6-13 ATS over their last 19 away, including 4-6 ATS this season. True, they've won two straight road games, at Virginia and at NC State, but I'm still not convinced. Their defense is far to porous to consider them in this contest, allowing 80 ppg on 45% shooting on the highway this season.
Match ups are close, but we'll give the nod to the Deacons, who've seen guards Teague and Smith step up big in the absence of L.D. Williams. In the frontcourt, you've got to love Wake's freshman F James Johnson, who should do real well against a smallish Yellow Jackets frontline. 7-footer Chas McFarland is still a work in progress, but G-Tech has no one even close in size, which should open up the paint for Johnson to goto work, as the Yellow Jackets struggle to match up.
Bottom line, until Wake Forest gives me a reason not to side with them at the Lawrence Joel Coliseum, I'll keep riding the gravy train! Guys, this Wake team is terrible on the road (1-7 SU), but from one reason or another, they go 110% at home and its showed in the win column and in their backers' bankrolls! Wake rolls in this one!
Take Wake Forest over Georgia Tech in this ACC showdown.
4. Hornets- Good spot to hop on the Hornets, as everyone is seemingly fading them because they've lost 3 straight games, but that's exactly the reason why I'm siding with them in this one. What better way to get right back in the Western Conference conversation than to beat the Suns at home... I'm not saying they'll win outright, I'm saying they give a "max-effort" tonight in an attempt to prove all their sudden doubters wrong tonight.
Guys, let's make one thing clear, New Orleans has beaten the Suns already twice this season, including a 118-113 outright win in Phoenix January 5th. They've also covered 4 straight against them, and come into this game looking to bounce back, and still scoring more than enough points to stick with Nash and company.
The problem the Hornets have been having is on defense, but we all know defense goes out the window when these two teams meet up. This is exactly the kind of game the Hornets need to get back on their feet, because as good as the Suns are at home, they're still only 9-12-1 ATS there this season. Note the Hornets have been money on the road, going an outstanding 22-7-1 ATS over their last 30 away games!
Finally, we all know this game features the two of the best point guards in the NBA, but there's some trouble brewing in Phoenix. The pending departure of Shawn Marion, and the subsequent addition of one of the biggest egos in the NBA, Shaquille O'Neal, has to be a distraction. Basically, Suns management is saying: "We can't do it with this team, " and that has to hurt what was one of more united teams in the West.
In the end, the Hornets are more than capable of beating the Suns outright here, but we'll take the points, and watch New Orleans rebound against a distracted Suns team, that's waiting around for their 35-year old broken-down saviour (good luck with that)!
Take the Hornets plus the points over the Suns in this NBA match up.