Jeff Benton
30 Dime: CHARGERS
5 Dime: TRAILBLAZERS
5 Dime: WEST VIRGINIA
Chargers
Let me ask you something: How many people this week did you hear (or read) give the San Diego Chargers a chance against the Colts today? And I?m not just talking about a chance to win; I?m talking about a chance to just keep it close? Me? I heard one person ? one of about three dozen ? over the course of the week who gave a 12-5 team that?s won (and covered!) seven straight games a prayer of staying within double digits in this game.
This despite the fact San Diego has THE best running back in the NFL ? has played tremendous defense for nearly two months ? and has covered three straight games against the Colts, winning two outright and losing the third in overtime.
Why? Because of the fact the Chargers struggled against the Titans last week? Let me tell you something: The Titans gave the Colts fits way back in Week 2 of the season (Indy escaped with a 22-20 win), then beat the Colts 16-10 in the regular-season finale in Indianapolis (true, the Colts? starters didn?t play very long in that game, but when they were in the game, they didn?t do much).
Is it because the Colts come into this game off a bye week, while the Chargers (the No. 3 seed) had to play? Well, anyone remember the last time the Colts entered a home playoff game off a bye week? I do: It was back in January 2006 against the Steelers ? and Indy lost 21-18 as a 10-point favorite. As was the case this week, every Tom, Dick and Harry picked the Colts to roll in that game against Pittsburgh. And then last year, forced to play ? as the No. 3 seed ? all three rounds of the playoffs, Indy went to and won the Super Bowl. Hmm.
Now, I know the big argument this week has been this: San Diego barely beat Indy 23-21 as a four-point underdog at home back in Week 9 despite getting a kickoff return for a touchdown, a punt return for a touchdown, six Peyton Manning interceptions and a missed chip-shot field goal by Adam Vinatieri in the final seconds. And that argument is usually extended with this statement: Manning had no Marvin Harrison, no Dallas Clark and no Anthony Gonzalez in that game. True enough. But the Colts sure had all their key guys in December 2004 when the Chargers went to Indy, took a 31-16 fourth-quarter lead, blew it, and lost in overtime 34-31 (covering as a seven-point favorite). And the Colts had all their weapons a year later in 2006, when they were 13-0 and hosted the Chargers. Result: San Diego 26, Indianapolis 17. Again, the Chargers were a seven-point underdog.
To refresh: That?s two outright wins and one overtime loss, all as an underdog, for San Diego against Indy. Now, today, they?re catching more points than they did in any of those previous three games. In fact, this line has rocketed up from an opening number of 7? and gone past 10! That means every single penny has come in on the Colts.
Well, we know what happens more often than not when the whole world lines up on one side of a team, right? I mean, need I remind you that I was one of about one percent of the betting public last week who sided with the Steelers plus the points against the Jaguars last week? We see it all the time in the NFL: When one team is given no shot to cover a number, that team usually rises up and does just that.
Besides, the Chargers aren?t just riding a seven-game winning streak; they?ve won six of those games by double digits. They?ve averaged 25 points per game and given up just 12 ppg during this streak. Digest those numbers for a second. Now read this: Once again, San Diego is catching double digits today!
So now you probably want to know why the Chargers have had so much success against Manning and the Colts in recent years. The #1 reason: Pressure defense. During the last three meetings, the Chargers have sacked Manning nine times and picked him off eight times. Well, guess who ranked fifth in the NFL in sacks this year (after leading the league in that category last year)? San Diego. Guess who ranked first in the NFL in turnover margin and interceptions in 2007? San Diego.
Finally, consider these mind-boggling numbers: San Diego is 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games overall, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the AFC, 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog and 8-1-1 ATS as an underdog catching 3? to 10 points.
Bottom line: This pointspread is freakin? ridiculous ? beyond ridiculous. The Chargers have a ton of talent on both sides of the football. Just as importantly, they have absolutely NOTHING to lose in this game because nobody?s giving them a shot. And I love nothing more than to back talented teams who are being disrespected.
Guys, forget what 99 percent of the rest of the world thinks. THEY ARE WRONG! San Diego keeps this one close throughout ? and if they pulled off the upset, I wouldn?t be the least bit surprised.
Trailblazers
You want to give me points with a team that?s won four straight games and 17 of its last 18 and is 16-2 ATS during this run ? including 8-1 ATS as an underdog and 5-1 ATS on the road ? fine, I?m sold.
I?ve said on several occasions during the past month or so that the Blazers just don?t get the respect they deserve, and this is another such case. I mean, it?s not like they?re facing the Celtics tonight; they?re facing the Raptors, who have lost six of their last 10 games. And although Toronto did win its last two, come on, look at the opponents: Philadelphia (at home) and the Knicks (on the road). And prior to the win over the Sixers, the Raptors had dropped three straight in their building (0-3 ATS). And they?re just 9-8 ATS at home for the season, not to mention 2-4 ATS when laying less than five points.
Meanwhile, during their current 4-1 SU and ATS run, the Blazers are averaging 103.6 points per game and giving up 95.8 ppg. They?re shooting 45.3 percent from the field, including a scintillating 42.3 percent from three-point land, while holding opponents to 42.7 percent overall and just 26.7 percent from beyond the arc. And during the last five, Portland is making 83.1 percent of its free throws.
On top of all that, there?s this: The Blazers come into this contest extremely fresh, having not played since Wednesday?s 109-91 rout of the talented Warriors. Well, Portland has played 10 games with two or more days rest this season, and it is 8-2 ATS, including a perfect 4-0 ATS when playing on three days? rest!
Gimme the points with the disrespected Blazers.
West Virginia
A week ago, I made the mistake of backing Marquette as a small underdog at West Virginia. The Golden Eagles, who had just one loss at the time (a four-point setback to Duke), got whacked 79-64. I learned my lesson that day: Either bet on the Mountaineers when they play at home or stay away. Today, I?m betting on them because they?re playing a Syracuse team that, despite its 12-4 record, is a fraud. All you have to do to realize that fact is look at the Orange?s four losses: 79-65 to Ohio State at Madison Square Garden; 107-100 to UMass at home, 91-89 to Rhode Island at home, and, in their first Big East road game on Wednesday, 74-66 at Cincinnati.
For the season, Syracuse is just 6-8 ATS. And the fact they?ve been an underdog just once (70-68 win at Virginia, which is terrible) tells you just how tough a schedule the Orange have played.
West Virginia, meanwhile, is 7-0 at home this year (2-0 ATS in lined games). And going back to last year, the Mountaineers have won 13 straight home games, and they?re an amazing 20-7 ATS in their last 23 lined games in their building. On top of that, they have a ton of motivation in this game. The reason? Syracuse has owned them, winning the last eight meetings going back to 2002. Of course, that?s when the Orange were a perennial Top 25 team. Not the case anymore.
In the end, this game will be won (and lost) on defense. West Virginia gives up just 61.4 points per game overall (39.3 percent shooting), including 55.3 ppg at home (32.8 percent). Conversely, the Orange yield 75.2 ppg overall (41.4 percent shooting) overall, and they?ve given up at least 70 points in four straight games ? three of which were played at home against Northeastern, St. John?s and South Florida.
West Virginia, which is also 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games on Sunday, rolls to the easy double-digit victory.
