THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PLAYOFFS
San Diego (12-5 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (13-3, 9-7 ATS)
The Chargers get a shot at the defending Super Bowl champion Colts for the second time this year, this time in the divisional playoffs and this time on the road at the RCA Dome.
San Diego last week earned its first playoff win since the 1994 season, holding off Tennessee 17-6 as a 10-point chalk to run its SU and ATS streak to 7-0. QB Philip Rivers was effective enough, going 19 of 30 for 292 yards with one TD and one INT, but it was the Chargers? defense that proved the difference. San Diego allowed just 248 total yards and forced two turnovers, including recovering a fumble deep in inside the red zone to stop a first-half Titans drive. RB LaDainian Tomlinson mustered just 42 yards and a TD on 21 carries, but scored on a 1-yard run in the fourth quarter to salt the game away.
Indianapolis, as the No. 2 seed, had a bye last week. The Colts, in a game with no bearing on the playoffs, closed the regular season with a 16-10 loss to Tennessee as a four-point home underdog. The meaningless defeat snapped the Colts six-game winning streak (3-3 ATS) that started following a 23-21 road loss in San Diego as a 3?-point road favorite on Nov. 11.
In that contest in California, Colts QB Peyton Manning threw a career-high six interceptions and Indy also allowed the Chargers? Darren Sproles to return both a kickoff and punt return for touchdowns in the first half. Still, despite those miscues, Indy had a chance to win the game, but normally clutch kicker Adam Vinatieri missed a chip-shot 29-yard field goal in the final minute. San Diego won despite netting just 177 yards of offense.
Including the victory this year, San Diego is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS against the Colts going back to the 2004 season. The Chargers faced a 13-0 Colts squad in December 2005 in Indianapolis and prevailed 26-17 as a seven-point underdog. The previous December, the Colts rallied from a 31-16 fourth-quarter deficit and pulled out a 34-31 overtime win, but again San Diego cashed as a seven-point ?dog.
The Chargers were a middling 4-4 ATS on the highway this season, including 1-2 SU and ATS as an underdog. Beyond that, though, they have almost nothing but positive ATS trends: 42-20-2 overall, 10-1 against the AFC, 13-3-1 as an underdog, 8-1-1 as a ?dog of 3? to 10 points, and 10-3-2 as a road pup. Also, the straight-up winner has covered the pointspread in each of San Diego?s 17 games this season.
The Colts are on several positive ATS runs as well, including: 7-3 at home, 4-0 in the playoffs (last year?s Super Bowl title run), 5-1 as a playoff favorite, 4-1 at home in the playoffs and 10-4 against teams with a winning record. Also, Coach Tony Dungy is 6-2 ATS as a playoff favorite. One negative note is Indy?s 2-5 ATS mark in its last seven starts against the AFC.
The Colts and Chargers had eight common opponents this season, with Indianapolis going 9-2 SU but just 5-6 ATS, and San Diego going 9-3 SU and ATS.
In the regular season, San Diego?s offense finished among the top 10 in scoring (25.8, 5th) and rushing (127.4, 7th), but was just 20th in total yards (315.2). However, the Chargers have outgained seven of their last eight opponents, and they?re outgaining foes by an average of 13 points per game (25-12) during their seven-game winning streak.
Defensively, San Diego allowed just 17.8 points per game (5th) and recorded 42 sacks (5th) in the regular season. Perhaps the most telling stat for San Diego, though, was its stunning plus-24 turnover differential, which led the league. The Chargers also had an NFL-best 30 INTs, paced by Antonio Cromartie?s league-leading 10 picks.
Indianapolis finished in the Top 6 offensively in the NFL in scoring (28.1 ppg, 3rd), total yards (358.7, 5th) and passing yardage (252.1 ypg, 6th). Manning connected on 65.4 percent of his passes for 4,040 yards with 31 TDs and 14 INTs. RB Joseph Addai had 1,072 yards (4.1 per carry) and 12 TDs, and WR Reggie Wayne had 1,510 receiving yards (14.5 ypc) and 10 TDs.
On the other side of the ball, Indy led the league in scoring defense (16.4 ppg) and ranked third in total defense (279.7 yards per game). The Colts finished with a plus-18 turnover differential, second in the league behind the Chargers.
The over was 10-5-1 for San Diego in the regular season, including 7-1 on the road, and the over is 10-2-2 in the Chargers? last 14 on the highway. However, last week?s game against Tennessee stayed well below the total, dropping the under to 5-0 in San Diego?s last five January contests, 6-2-2 in its last 10 against the AFC and 9-4-2 in its last 15 following a spread-cover.
For Indianapolis, the under is on streaks of 5-1 in divisional playoff games, 5-1 in its last six playoff starts, 4-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-1 following a SU loss. Conversely, the over is 5-1 following an ATS setback and 4-1 when the Colts are favored. Finally, each of the last two Colts-Chargers battles have stayed under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and UNDER
N.Y. Giants (11-6 SU and ATS) at Dallas (13-3, 9-7 ATS)
Fresh off his first career playoff victory, Eli Manning leads the upset-minded Giants into Dallas to face the top-seeded Cowboys, who scored a pair of double-digit wins over New York in the regular season.
New York rolled past Tampa Bay 24-14 in last week?s wild-card round, cashing as a three-point underdog. It was the Giants? eighth straight road victory (7-1 ATS) since opening the season with a loss at Dallas. Manning was outstanding in his third career playoff game, going 20 of 27 for 185 yards and two TDs with no turnovers. RBs Ahmad Bradshaw (66 yards) and Brandon Jacobs (34 yards, 1 TD) combined for 100 yards, and the Giants? defense allowed just 271 yards and fueled a 3-0 turnover edge, including two interceptions of Bucs QB Jeff Garcia.
The Cowboys, who enjoyed a bye last week, finished the regular season with a 27-6 loss at Washington as a nine-point underdog, though the majority of the team?s starters saw limited or no action in what was a meaningless game played in a driving rainstorm. Dallas finished with a meager 147 total yards, and QB Tony Romo played into the third quarter but went just 7 of 16 for 86 yards. Romo had just one TD and five INTs in the final three games, and the Cowboys closed the year by going 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS.
Dallas won a 45-35 shootout over the Giants in Week 1, cashing as a 6?-point home favorite. In the rematch at the Meadowlands on Nov. 11, the Cowboys cruised 31-20 as a two-point road chalk. Dallas has won the last three meetings (2-0-1 ATS) and is 6-4 in the last 10 clashes (4-4-2 ATS), and this is the first-ever postseason battle between these NFC East rivals.
The favorite is 4-1-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
The Giants improved to 5-3 ATS as an underdog this season after last week?s win, including 5-1 ATS in the last six. They?re also on positive ATS streaks of 5-0 on the road, 8-3 versus the NFC, 5-2 in the playoffs, 4-1 as a playoff underdog and 4-1 in January.
The Cowboys went 8-5 ATS as a favorite this season, but they were a more middling 5-3 ATS at home (5-2 ATS as a favorite) and 3-3 ATS against the NFC East. They?re also just 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff starts and 1-5 ATS in January, though the one spread-cover came in last year?s heartbreaking 21-20 loss at Seattle as a 2?-point underdog in the wild-card round.
The two teams had 10 common opponents this season, with Dallas going 9-2 SU but just 6-5 ATS, while New York was 8-4 SU and ATS.
In the regular season, New York averaged 23.3 points per game (14th in the league) and 331.4 total yards (16th), but the Giants had the fourth-best rushing attack at 134.2 per game. On defense, the Giants allowed 21.9 points (17th) but just 305.0 total yards (7th) and 97.7 rushing yards (8th). One glaring negative for New York was its minus-9 turnover differential, the worst of any playoff team, though it did rectify that in last week?s win at Tampa Bay
Dallas had the league?s second-best offense behind New England, averaging 28.4 points per game. The Cowboys also ranked in the Top 5 in total offense (365.7, 3rd) and passing offense (256.6 ypg, 4th). In his first full season as a starter, Romo completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 4,211 yards with a team-record 36 TDs and 19 INTs. RB Marion Barber had 975 rushing yards (4.8 per carry) and 10 TDs, and WR Terrell Owens had 1,355 yards receiving (16.7 per catch) and 15 TDs. Finally, TE Jason Witten had a team-leading 96 catches for 1,145 yards and seven TDs.
Defensively, the Cowboys allowed 20.3 points (13th) and 307.6 yards per game (9th), but they fielded the league?s sixth-best run defense (94.6 ypg). Also, Dallas finished with a plus-5 turnover differential (9th).
The over cashed in both regular-season meetings between these teams (totals of 44 and 48) and is 3-0-1 in the last four in this series. For Dallas, the over is 7-3-3 in its last 13 against the NFC East and 4-1 in its last five against teams with a winning record. For New York, the under is on runs of 7-1 on the highway, 4-0 against the NFC, 4-1 against the NFC East, 5-1 as an underdog and 5-2 in the playoffs, with last week?s contest at Tampa staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS and UNDER
NFL PLAYOFFS
San Diego (12-5 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (13-3, 9-7 ATS)
The Chargers get a shot at the defending Super Bowl champion Colts for the second time this year, this time in the divisional playoffs and this time on the road at the RCA Dome.
San Diego last week earned its first playoff win since the 1994 season, holding off Tennessee 17-6 as a 10-point chalk to run its SU and ATS streak to 7-0. QB Philip Rivers was effective enough, going 19 of 30 for 292 yards with one TD and one INT, but it was the Chargers? defense that proved the difference. San Diego allowed just 248 total yards and forced two turnovers, including recovering a fumble deep in inside the red zone to stop a first-half Titans drive. RB LaDainian Tomlinson mustered just 42 yards and a TD on 21 carries, but scored on a 1-yard run in the fourth quarter to salt the game away.
Indianapolis, as the No. 2 seed, had a bye last week. The Colts, in a game with no bearing on the playoffs, closed the regular season with a 16-10 loss to Tennessee as a four-point home underdog. The meaningless defeat snapped the Colts six-game winning streak (3-3 ATS) that started following a 23-21 road loss in San Diego as a 3?-point road favorite on Nov. 11.
In that contest in California, Colts QB Peyton Manning threw a career-high six interceptions and Indy also allowed the Chargers? Darren Sproles to return both a kickoff and punt return for touchdowns in the first half. Still, despite those miscues, Indy had a chance to win the game, but normally clutch kicker Adam Vinatieri missed a chip-shot 29-yard field goal in the final minute. San Diego won despite netting just 177 yards of offense.
Including the victory this year, San Diego is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS against the Colts going back to the 2004 season. The Chargers faced a 13-0 Colts squad in December 2005 in Indianapolis and prevailed 26-17 as a seven-point underdog. The previous December, the Colts rallied from a 31-16 fourth-quarter deficit and pulled out a 34-31 overtime win, but again San Diego cashed as a seven-point ?dog.
The Chargers were a middling 4-4 ATS on the highway this season, including 1-2 SU and ATS as an underdog. Beyond that, though, they have almost nothing but positive ATS trends: 42-20-2 overall, 10-1 against the AFC, 13-3-1 as an underdog, 8-1-1 as a ?dog of 3? to 10 points, and 10-3-2 as a road pup. Also, the straight-up winner has covered the pointspread in each of San Diego?s 17 games this season.
The Colts are on several positive ATS runs as well, including: 7-3 at home, 4-0 in the playoffs (last year?s Super Bowl title run), 5-1 as a playoff favorite, 4-1 at home in the playoffs and 10-4 against teams with a winning record. Also, Coach Tony Dungy is 6-2 ATS as a playoff favorite. One negative note is Indy?s 2-5 ATS mark in its last seven starts against the AFC.
The Colts and Chargers had eight common opponents this season, with Indianapolis going 9-2 SU but just 5-6 ATS, and San Diego going 9-3 SU and ATS.
In the regular season, San Diego?s offense finished among the top 10 in scoring (25.8, 5th) and rushing (127.4, 7th), but was just 20th in total yards (315.2). However, the Chargers have outgained seven of their last eight opponents, and they?re outgaining foes by an average of 13 points per game (25-12) during their seven-game winning streak.
Defensively, San Diego allowed just 17.8 points per game (5th) and recorded 42 sacks (5th) in the regular season. Perhaps the most telling stat for San Diego, though, was its stunning plus-24 turnover differential, which led the league. The Chargers also had an NFL-best 30 INTs, paced by Antonio Cromartie?s league-leading 10 picks.
Indianapolis finished in the Top 6 offensively in the NFL in scoring (28.1 ppg, 3rd), total yards (358.7, 5th) and passing yardage (252.1 ypg, 6th). Manning connected on 65.4 percent of his passes for 4,040 yards with 31 TDs and 14 INTs. RB Joseph Addai had 1,072 yards (4.1 per carry) and 12 TDs, and WR Reggie Wayne had 1,510 receiving yards (14.5 ypc) and 10 TDs.
On the other side of the ball, Indy led the league in scoring defense (16.4 ppg) and ranked third in total defense (279.7 yards per game). The Colts finished with a plus-18 turnover differential, second in the league behind the Chargers.
The over was 10-5-1 for San Diego in the regular season, including 7-1 on the road, and the over is 10-2-2 in the Chargers? last 14 on the highway. However, last week?s game against Tennessee stayed well below the total, dropping the under to 5-0 in San Diego?s last five January contests, 6-2-2 in its last 10 against the AFC and 9-4-2 in its last 15 following a spread-cover.
For Indianapolis, the under is on streaks of 5-1 in divisional playoff games, 5-1 in its last six playoff starts, 4-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-1 following a SU loss. Conversely, the over is 5-1 following an ATS setback and 4-1 when the Colts are favored. Finally, each of the last two Colts-Chargers battles have stayed under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and UNDER
N.Y. Giants (11-6 SU and ATS) at Dallas (13-3, 9-7 ATS)
Fresh off his first career playoff victory, Eli Manning leads the upset-minded Giants into Dallas to face the top-seeded Cowboys, who scored a pair of double-digit wins over New York in the regular season.
New York rolled past Tampa Bay 24-14 in last week?s wild-card round, cashing as a three-point underdog. It was the Giants? eighth straight road victory (7-1 ATS) since opening the season with a loss at Dallas. Manning was outstanding in his third career playoff game, going 20 of 27 for 185 yards and two TDs with no turnovers. RBs Ahmad Bradshaw (66 yards) and Brandon Jacobs (34 yards, 1 TD) combined for 100 yards, and the Giants? defense allowed just 271 yards and fueled a 3-0 turnover edge, including two interceptions of Bucs QB Jeff Garcia.
The Cowboys, who enjoyed a bye last week, finished the regular season with a 27-6 loss at Washington as a nine-point underdog, though the majority of the team?s starters saw limited or no action in what was a meaningless game played in a driving rainstorm. Dallas finished with a meager 147 total yards, and QB Tony Romo played into the third quarter but went just 7 of 16 for 86 yards. Romo had just one TD and five INTs in the final three games, and the Cowboys closed the year by going 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS.
Dallas won a 45-35 shootout over the Giants in Week 1, cashing as a 6?-point home favorite. In the rematch at the Meadowlands on Nov. 11, the Cowboys cruised 31-20 as a two-point road chalk. Dallas has won the last three meetings (2-0-1 ATS) and is 6-4 in the last 10 clashes (4-4-2 ATS), and this is the first-ever postseason battle between these NFC East rivals.
The favorite is 4-1-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
The Giants improved to 5-3 ATS as an underdog this season after last week?s win, including 5-1 ATS in the last six. They?re also on positive ATS streaks of 5-0 on the road, 8-3 versus the NFC, 5-2 in the playoffs, 4-1 as a playoff underdog and 4-1 in January.
The Cowboys went 8-5 ATS as a favorite this season, but they were a more middling 5-3 ATS at home (5-2 ATS as a favorite) and 3-3 ATS against the NFC East. They?re also just 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff starts and 1-5 ATS in January, though the one spread-cover came in last year?s heartbreaking 21-20 loss at Seattle as a 2?-point underdog in the wild-card round.
The two teams had 10 common opponents this season, with Dallas going 9-2 SU but just 6-5 ATS, while New York was 8-4 SU and ATS.
In the regular season, New York averaged 23.3 points per game (14th in the league) and 331.4 total yards (16th), but the Giants had the fourth-best rushing attack at 134.2 per game. On defense, the Giants allowed 21.9 points (17th) but just 305.0 total yards (7th) and 97.7 rushing yards (8th). One glaring negative for New York was its minus-9 turnover differential, the worst of any playoff team, though it did rectify that in last week?s win at Tampa Bay
Dallas had the league?s second-best offense behind New England, averaging 28.4 points per game. The Cowboys also ranked in the Top 5 in total offense (365.7, 3rd) and passing offense (256.6 ypg, 4th). In his first full season as a starter, Romo completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 4,211 yards with a team-record 36 TDs and 19 INTs. RB Marion Barber had 975 rushing yards (4.8 per carry) and 10 TDs, and WR Terrell Owens had 1,355 yards receiving (16.7 per catch) and 15 TDs. Finally, TE Jason Witten had a team-leading 96 catches for 1,145 yards and seven TDs.
Defensively, the Cowboys allowed 20.3 points (13th) and 307.6 yards per game (9th), but they fielded the league?s sixth-best run defense (94.6 ypg). Also, Dallas finished with a plus-5 turnover differential (9th).
The over cashed in both regular-season meetings between these teams (totals of 44 and 48) and is 3-0-1 in the last four in this series. For Dallas, the over is 7-3-3 in its last 13 against the NFC East and 4-1 in its last five against teams with a winning record. For New York, the under is on runs of 7-1 on the highway, 4-0 against the NFC, 4-1 against the NFC East, 5-1 as an underdog and 5-2 in the playoffs, with last week?s contest at Tampa staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS and UNDER
