Soccer 2017 August-December

[BASON]

I am sticking just with Bayern for now and then I will see how it goes and may make plays in the Liverpool and Leipzig games since they are right after Bayern.

Tempted to take Burnley +1, but will pass. Back in the a.m. hopefully after a Bayern win in the FH!

 

[tt boy]

1st half winner :0074

 

[BASON]

Sorry, was wrong about Bayern. Was more or less break even for me, but still very disappointed. Go up 2-0 and then play like they had it won.

This team has serious problems. As I have been saying, you can not play Robben, Ribery, and Mueller together. Mueller is simply lost and Ribery simply sucks. They have no one in midfield to control the game and their back up goalie is as bad as there is. They still may win the Bundesliga which is as weak as I have ever seen, but they have no chance in Champions League, though they should move on since their group is terrible. Their lack of spending money and bringing in young talent is coming back to haunt them.

Really thought I was going to clean up today. Oh well, we move on.

Playing Leipzig small. This is more of a play against Koln as they are the Crystal Palace of Germany right now. Both teams lost mid week, but Koln lost to some team I never heard of while Leipzig lost as I expected in Turkey.

If I would have won more I would have taken a shot with New Castle as I expect Liverpool to be sluggish today. I should have also played Burnley like I said last night.

 

[BASON]

Thursday in Euro

Montenegro +.5 -135/+250 - Yes, Denmark has had a good run lately but should they be getting this much respect in a very tough place to play? No, in my opinion. These two are deadlocked in second place, so this is a huge game for both. Montenegro can still win this group but they do have Poland on deck. That may not be likely but they have to win this game to have a chance to move on as Denmark has Romania at home in its last game. A win and a draw will get them in, so I am looking for a very spirited effort here and I like the odds they are getting at home.

Scotland Ov 2 -130 - Scotland absolutely has to win this game to have any chance of moving forward. It is still very unlikely given that Slovakia has Malta on deck. As such, they have to be aggressive. Maybe not so much at first, but very much so in the second half, so we should see at least a couple of goals here.

And if you really want some action, San Marino +3 Ev. Only for us hardcore degenerates. San Marino is horrible, but, Norway has been out of sorts and are out of it. Not sure how motivated they will be. I know San Marino will play hard to get any result. They played a 4-1 in Norway, so I think they will keep it close. Of course they can always lose 6-0, but I will throw a couple bucks on it.

Also I will likely be grabbing Venezuela +1 soon as I do not think it will last until Thursday.

 

[DZ]

Tuesday in Euro

Montenegro +.5 -135/+250 - Yes, Denmark has had a good run lately but should they be getting this much respect in a very tough place to play? No, in my opinion. These two are deadlocked in second place, so this is a huge game for both. Montenegro can still win this group but they do have Poland on deck. That may not be likely but they have to win this game to have a chance to move on as Denmark has Romania at home in its last game. A win and a draw will get them in, so I am looking for a very spirited effort here and I like the odds they are getting at home.

Scotland Ov 2 -130 - Scotland absolutely has to win this game to have any chance of moving forward. It is still very unlikely given that Slovakia has Malta on deck. As such, they have to be aggressive. Maybe not so much at first, but very much so in the second half, so we should see at least a couple of goals here.

And if you really want some action, San Marino +3 Ev. Only for us hardcore degenerates. San Marino is horrible, but, Norway has been out of sorts and are out of it. Not sure how motivated they will be. I know San Marino will play hard to get any result. They played a 4-1 in Norway, so I think they will keep it close. Of course they can always lose 6-0, but I will throw a couple bucks on it.

Also I will likely be grabbing Venezuela +1 soon as I do not think it will last until Thursday.

If I'm not mistaken, the Euro WC Qualifying matches begin on Thursday. GL Bason!

 

[BASON]

Yup, thanks DZ, I fixed it. Trying to get a head start as there are a ton of games to look at. Last time completely wore me out as I tried to look at almost every qualifier.

 

[DZ]

Yup, thanks DZ, I fixed it. Trying to get a head start as there are a ton of games to look at. Last time completely wore me out as I tried to look at almost every qualifier.

Bason, wondering what your thoughts are on the Syria-Australia playoff. I think the Aussies can take care of business early in the first leg and the line looks kind of low to me. I took them last night a -111, but I see it has already gone up some. Syria have faced a much poorer level of competition in qualifying and Australia is tournament tested in high leverage playoff situations, while Syria has no experience in a playoff. The neutral site in Malaysia is one that Syria will be familiar with as they had to play most of their home qualifying matches there, but it is much closer for Australia to travel to than the other teams that Syria had to face there in qualifying, not to mention Australia is used to traveling long distances for away matches.

Also, any insight on the Chile-Ecuador game? I see the line moving down, but I don't see how Ecuador has a chance to win this one in Santiago. I don't see -232 as being all that high a price and -1.5 should be good too (if you can get a -1 with juice, even better). Chile knows this is a must-win game for them and they need a strong showing of goals to get that differential up to try to gain an advantage on Argentina, Peru & Colombia in the table. Their manager Pizzi seems to be under a lot of scrutiny for his tactics in recent losses, but the players must be feeling a sense of urgency, especially knowing they have that away game to Brazil looming on the 20th. These are the golden years for Sanchez and Vidal and the entire team must realize that this is their best shot to make a run at the cup before these once in a generation stars get much older. Maybe the pressure is too much and they melt under it all, but Ecuador must know that their chances qualifying are less than slim to none. Once Chile puts in that first goal, we could see the floodgates open and they are very capable of a 3-0, 3-1 win or better... I just have concerns about their manager and his tactics.

 

[BASON]

I have been looking at the Australia game. They are certainly the favorite, but I expect this first game to be very tight. I do not think the travel is an issue at all, I really think it comes down to how they want to play the game. I have to believe that Australia is very confident that they will win at home, so I think that effects how they play this game. While they certainly want to win, they do not want to make any mistakes so I think they play tight and conservative, so I am not sure they warrant the -130 price. Syria has proven to be a good team and has not lost in their last 6 games, while Australia has been struggling. I honestly do not know a lot about the Syrian team except that they have a lot of older, experienced player. I think this is a layoff for me, but if I were betting, my money would be on the draw or Syria +.5.

As far as Chile goes, I can only tell you one thing: there is NO WAY in hell Chile is getting any of my money right now. Yes, they have to win this game and Ecuador is brutal on the road. Everything leads to an easy Chile win, but I do not trust this team as they consistently underperform. If I were forced to make a play, I would take the over, or if you play Chile, I would back it up with the over. It should be a wide open game.

South America is extremely hard to handicap. I am looking at Venezuela +1 and Peru +2 right now as I think there is tremendous pressure on some of these teams. Remember, Peru is ahead of Argentina right now. On paper, Argentina looks easy, but based on recent play, I do not think Argentina should be -2 against anyone. Plus, they have only scored 3 goals in one game during all of qualifying and Peru hasn't given up 3 since late 2015. Almost looks too easy.

 

[BASON]

Friday Euro

Turkey Ev - I think this line is way off. Turkey should be at least -130 and likely will be. This is a must win game for them, and like I have said many times, Turkey is a very difficult place to play. Love the even odds so I will play some know and watch it.

 

[DZ]

Good god, this Scotland-Slovakia game is a sluggish war of attrition. What a bore. At least Montenegro is keeping things interesting with Denmark.

 

[BASON]

Just a shitty day. Scotland is horrible. They should have won that game easily and then get lucky to win. Montenegro just couldn't finish, they got no one to blame but themselves now.

I am taking Peru +2. Argentina will have to prove they can blow someone out.

 

[Subcloser]

Riding in South America tonight...gl to us

I have 4 totals circled in ENG1 for Saturday...nothing in ENG2 totals wise...will post Sat morning

 

[DZ]

Just a shitty day. Scotland is horrible. They should have won that game easily and then get lucky to win. Montenegro just couldn't finish, they got no one to blame but themselves now.

I am taking Peru +2. Argentina will have to prove they can blow someone out.

Venezuela worked out :0008

 

[tt boy]

these South America matches are dreadful if you like goals:scared..

 

[BASON]

Except for the last couple minutes. Wholly crap. South America is nuts. Paraguay win is crazy. That cost Columbia qualification. Next week is going to be insane. Argentina is in serious trouble. They have to play in Ecuador while Peru and Paraguay get home games. AND, Peru plays Columbia, who now could be out!!

 

[BASON]

I am going to make a small bet on Wales -110 in the early game. They need this win, but Bale is out. Georgia is no push over as they drew them at home. Both these teams have played a lot of draws and that is my biggest concern here. Ramsey is going to have to really step up in this game like he did in Serbia when Bale was out. I think Wales can get the win here and set up an epic battle with Ireland next week.

 

[BASON]

Nice win for Wales, now lets hope Turkey comes through.

I have made my thoughts on USA soccer very well known throughout this forum on many occasions. This is not a very good team and I really hate this roster. There are at least 8 (and that is being kind) players that have no business at all being on this team and I can not stand the fact that 18 MLS players are on the roster. Arena's disdain for European players is completely outrageous and will have to change if they qualify. All this being said, the job right now is to qualify, and they should be able to win this game. However, there is no way in hell I will lay -200 on a glorified MLS team that is old and slow with no midfield. Panama will likely let them attack as they are happy, very happy, with a draw. US needs to score in the first 30 or it could be a tough game for them. My take is that the veterans will give a great effort to win, but let's remember that this is Panama at home.

Don't get me wrong, I am a big USA fan, I just hate the US Soccer Federation and their complete lack of leadership and knowledge of the game. I am also not a fan, obviously, of Arena who is nothing more than a mid level MLS coach. I will be watching and routing for a US victory, but they are not getting my money. I am hopeful that they qualify and then Arena, and US Soccer, wakes up and starts putting together a team that can compete in Russia, because if he takes this team, they get thoroughly embarrassed.

 

[lowell]

Nice call on Wales. Glad I decided to follow you. Thanks

 

[BASON]

Hope you didn't follow Turkey. Can not believe they lost 3-0 at home. That coach is fired. Crazy day with Serbia losing, Italy drawing and Croatia drawing. Huge win for Iceland. Show you how much pressure there is on these teams as you are seeing some strange results.

Won't have much for tomorrow. Still doing some research, but Dutch and the over may be the only play I have. Will be back little later.

 

[BASON]

Just bet Netherlands -1.5 -135 and Ov 3.

They have to win and they have to win by a huge margin. I don't think they can catch Sweden in goal differential as they play Luxembourg, but they did beat Belarus 4-1 at home and I see a similar result here.