Michelle Wie vs. The Cut: A statistical analysis
By Mike Vitti
PGA TOUR Staff
Michelle Wie is playing in her third Sony Open in Hawaii this week, and the question everyone is asking is can she be the first female since Babe Didrikson Zaharias to make the cut in a men's professional golf event. Adding to the pressure this week is the fact that she is now a professional golfer, and one of her major sponsors is also the title sponsor of the event.
First and foremost to keep in mind when analyzing Wie and her game is that she is only 16 years old and still has a lot of time to improve. That being said, if Wie is to have any chance to make the cut and be successful as a professional she needs to improve her accuracy, both off the tee and on approach.
While it is a fact that Wie only missed the cut by one stroke at the 2004 Sony Open and by two strokes at the 2005 John Deere Classic, being this close to success may actually have been the worst thing to happen. Missing the cut by a wide margin at the Sony Open in 2005, though, forced her to re-evaluate her approach and improve her game.
Breakdown by Par
Looking at data organized by par from the six rounds that Wie has played on the PGA TOUR and comparing the results to similar data from the players who made the cut may help illustrate the areas she needs to improve to reach her professional goals.
Par 3s
Improvement on the shortest holes could have the biggest impact on Wie's score. In her last three attempts to make the cut on the PGA TOUR, Wie's scoring average on the par 3s is 3.08, which is not bad considering that the TOUR average in 2005 was 3.13. However, the par-3 scoring average for players making the cut at the events Wie has entered is 2.98.
Wie's problem on the par 3s is her accuracy. On the 24 par 3s she has played, Wie has only managed to hit the green 54.2 percent of the time, while the players making the cut hit the green at about a 70 percent clip. Add to this that players making the cut in these events are about 8 feet closer to the hole than Wie, and she is at a disadvantage on the shortest holes on the course.
ShotLink Averages for Rounds 1 and 2 of the 2004 & 2005 Sony Open in Hawaii and the 2005 John Deere Classic
Par 3s Average Score GIR Proximity to the Hole Putting Average
Michelle Wie 3.08 54.2% 38.2 feet 1.769
Players Making the Cut 2.98 70.5% 29.7 feet 1.791
Par 4s
Wie's scoring average on the par 4s is again under the TOUR average (4.14 in 2005), but well above the average of those that made the cut (4.00). Distance and accuracy are both restricting her scoring chances on the par 4s. Wie is definitely long, but against older professionals on the PGA TOUR her driving distance is below average. Her approach shots suffer due to her lack of distance on the par 4s and are about 10 yards shorter on average. This forces Wie to hit about one club more than the players who made the cut.
Now while there are comparatively short hitters on TOUR (e.g. Fred Funk and Corey Pavin), they are much more accurate and play more of their shots from the fairway. Since she has to play longer shots and approaches out of non-fairway lies, her GIR has suffered. She has only hit 51 percent of the greens on the par 4s, and it is not going to be easy to make the cut when you miss up to seven greens per round.
Wie's putting average on par 4s is also higher than those players who made the cut, but this is probably more due to her average proximity to the hole than her putting skills.
ShotLink Averages for Rounds 1 and 2 of the 2004 & 2005 Sony Open in Hawaii and the 2005 John Deere Classic
Par 4s Average Score Average Driving Distance Driving Accuracy Approach Shot Avg. Distance GIR Proximity to the Hole Putting Average
Michelle Wie 4.14 271.1 yards 65.7% 162.6 yards 51.4% 37.2 feet 1.833
Players Making the Cut 4.00 279.3 yards 62.0% 154.0 yards 63.2% 28.5 feet 1.777
Par 5s
At this stage of her career, Wie is not going to be able to easily turn par 5s into par 4s, ala John Daly or Jason Gore, but it seems she has realized this and taken the right approach on these holes. Her scoring average of 4.57 on the par 5s is well below the 2005 TOUR average of 4.84 but still a little higher than those who made the cut. However, Wie does have a better GIR rate and comparable putting average than those players, and her 50 percent going-for-it percentage shows that she is being aggressive, but only when it is advisable.
ShotLink Averages for Rounds 1 and 2 of the 2004 & 2005 Sony Open in Hawaii and the 2005 John Deere Classic
Par 5s Average Score Average Driving Distance Driving Accuracy Going For It Percentage GIR Putting Average
Michelle Wie 4.57 281.5 64.3% 50.0% 92.9% 1.615
Players Making the Cut 4.42 291.1 yards 62.3% 60.2% 89.9% 1.607
Conclusion
Wie is just a teenager and still learning the game. As she matures and plays more events, both men's and women's, she will find her game is going to change and she will have to adapt. Right now she must realize at this stage of her young career when she tees it up in the men's events she needs to focus on accuracy from the tee and through the green. She should try to model her game after players like Heath Slocum, Fred Funk and David Toms more than that of Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh or Ernie Els.
By Mike Vitti
PGA TOUR Staff
Michelle Wie is playing in her third Sony Open in Hawaii this week, and the question everyone is asking is can she be the first female since Babe Didrikson Zaharias to make the cut in a men's professional golf event. Adding to the pressure this week is the fact that she is now a professional golfer, and one of her major sponsors is also the title sponsor of the event.
First and foremost to keep in mind when analyzing Wie and her game is that she is only 16 years old and still has a lot of time to improve. That being said, if Wie is to have any chance to make the cut and be successful as a professional she needs to improve her accuracy, both off the tee and on approach.
While it is a fact that Wie only missed the cut by one stroke at the 2004 Sony Open and by two strokes at the 2005 John Deere Classic, being this close to success may actually have been the worst thing to happen. Missing the cut by a wide margin at the Sony Open in 2005, though, forced her to re-evaluate her approach and improve her game.
Breakdown by Par
Looking at data organized by par from the six rounds that Wie has played on the PGA TOUR and comparing the results to similar data from the players who made the cut may help illustrate the areas she needs to improve to reach her professional goals.
Par 3s
Improvement on the shortest holes could have the biggest impact on Wie's score. In her last three attempts to make the cut on the PGA TOUR, Wie's scoring average on the par 3s is 3.08, which is not bad considering that the TOUR average in 2005 was 3.13. However, the par-3 scoring average for players making the cut at the events Wie has entered is 2.98.
Wie's problem on the par 3s is her accuracy. On the 24 par 3s she has played, Wie has only managed to hit the green 54.2 percent of the time, while the players making the cut hit the green at about a 70 percent clip. Add to this that players making the cut in these events are about 8 feet closer to the hole than Wie, and she is at a disadvantage on the shortest holes on the course.
ShotLink Averages for Rounds 1 and 2 of the 2004 & 2005 Sony Open in Hawaii and the 2005 John Deere Classic
Par 3s Average Score GIR Proximity to the Hole Putting Average
Michelle Wie 3.08 54.2% 38.2 feet 1.769
Players Making the Cut 2.98 70.5% 29.7 feet 1.791
Par 4s
Wie's scoring average on the par 4s is again under the TOUR average (4.14 in 2005), but well above the average of those that made the cut (4.00). Distance and accuracy are both restricting her scoring chances on the par 4s. Wie is definitely long, but against older professionals on the PGA TOUR her driving distance is below average. Her approach shots suffer due to her lack of distance on the par 4s and are about 10 yards shorter on average. This forces Wie to hit about one club more than the players who made the cut.
Now while there are comparatively short hitters on TOUR (e.g. Fred Funk and Corey Pavin), they are much more accurate and play more of their shots from the fairway. Since she has to play longer shots and approaches out of non-fairway lies, her GIR has suffered. She has only hit 51 percent of the greens on the par 4s, and it is not going to be easy to make the cut when you miss up to seven greens per round.
Wie's putting average on par 4s is also higher than those players who made the cut, but this is probably more due to her average proximity to the hole than her putting skills.
ShotLink Averages for Rounds 1 and 2 of the 2004 & 2005 Sony Open in Hawaii and the 2005 John Deere Classic
Par 4s Average Score Average Driving Distance Driving Accuracy Approach Shot Avg. Distance GIR Proximity to the Hole Putting Average
Michelle Wie 4.14 271.1 yards 65.7% 162.6 yards 51.4% 37.2 feet 1.833
Players Making the Cut 4.00 279.3 yards 62.0% 154.0 yards 63.2% 28.5 feet 1.777
Par 5s
At this stage of her career, Wie is not going to be able to easily turn par 5s into par 4s, ala John Daly or Jason Gore, but it seems she has realized this and taken the right approach on these holes. Her scoring average of 4.57 on the par 5s is well below the 2005 TOUR average of 4.84 but still a little higher than those who made the cut. However, Wie does have a better GIR rate and comparable putting average than those players, and her 50 percent going-for-it percentage shows that she is being aggressive, but only when it is advisable.
ShotLink Averages for Rounds 1 and 2 of the 2004 & 2005 Sony Open in Hawaii and the 2005 John Deere Classic
Par 5s Average Score Average Driving Distance Driving Accuracy Going For It Percentage GIR Putting Average
Michelle Wie 4.57 281.5 64.3% 50.0% 92.9% 1.615
Players Making the Cut 4.42 291.1 yards 62.3% 60.2% 89.9% 1.607
Conclusion
Wie is just a teenager and still learning the game. As she matures and plays more events, both men's and women's, she will find her game is going to change and she will have to adapt. Right now she must realize at this stage of her young career when she tees it up in the men's events she needs to focus on accuracy from the tee and through the green. She should try to model her game after players like Heath Slocum, Fred Funk and David Toms more than that of Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh or Ernie Els.
Good Luck Agent--65 here today and getting ready to slip out and hit a few.
