Comps
Ben Burns
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
REASON FOR PICK: This game is too 'expensive' to qualify as one of my 'guaranteed' plays. All the same, Halladay vs. Liz is a serious mismatch. Halladay has been one of the best in the big leagues for years. He's 3-0 with a stellar 1.57 ERA his last three starts and he's 16-4 (2.84 ERA) over his career vs. the Orioles. In fact, the Jays' ace is 6-0 with a 2.54 ERA his last eight starts against the Orioles. Liz was respetable in this season's lone start, holding the Twins to two runs through 5 2/3 innings. However, let's not forget that he was 0-2 with a 6.93 ERA in nine games, including four starts, last year. Even with a win yesterday, the Orioles are still just 7-14 when playing in the afternoon this season. Looking back further and we find them at a money-burning 46-73 in day games the past three seasons. The Jays are 8-1 the last nine times they were home favorites in the -200 to -225 range and 26-12 their last 38 in that role. Halladay has been 'money in the bank' for years when the Jays were coming off a loss. Look for him to 'do his thing' as Toronto avoids the sweep and improves to 15-5 when playing during the afternoon
Matt Fargo
Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels took Game Two last night as they remain red hot. They have now won seven straight games and it has been due to excellent pitching. Los Angeles has allowed just 2.7 rpg during this winning streak which is huge considering the offense has not scored more than five runs in any of those games. This offense is definitely due for a breakout and this could be the game despite going up against a top notch starter. The Angels are now 21-11 on the road, easily the best mark in the bigs.
Oakland is now 5.5 games behind the Angels in the American League West as it has dropped six of its last 10 games. The A?s have been one of the streakiest teams around as they lost seven of eight, then won five straight, lost four straight, won four straight and now have dropped two in a row. The offense has been handcuffed in the first two games against the Angels and it has scored three runs or fewer in four of the six meetings this season. Oakland is 2-5 in its last seven games as a favorite of -150 or less.
Ervin Santana looks to be back. He started the season as good as any pitcher has, going 6-0 with a 2.02 ERA through his first seven starts. He hit a road bump with three straight non-quality outings that knocked his ERA up to 3.24. His last two starts however were gems, allowing two runs in each while picking up the win in both. Facing Oakland makes things even better as he is 8-1 with a 1.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 10 career starts against the A?s, all of which have been quality outings.
Rich Harden looks to be back as well as he has tossed four straight quality starts after getting roughed up by the Rangers in his initial start returning from the disabled list. He is coming off two straight no decisions and that is due to the offense behind him as the bats produced just four total runs in those two games. He has not gone against the Angels in two years so things have changed but half of his last eight starts have been non-quality including allowing six runs in two of the last three. Play Los Angeles Angels 1.5 Units
Larry Ness
Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Oakland Athletics
The Angels continue to prove that they do not need a lot of runs to win games. Since the Angels beat their LA-rivals the Dodgers 10-2 back on May 18, they've yet to score more than five runs in ANY of their last 17 games. However, last night's 5-3 win in Oakland was the team's seventh straight and the 13th in its last 17, despite averaging a modest 3.29 RPG. Saturday's win moved the Angels into a tie with the Cubs for the best record in the majors (39-24), increased their lead in the AL West over the A's (33-29) to 5 1/2 games and gave them a 21-11 road mark, the best mark in all of MLB. Can the Angels make it a three-game sweep in McAfee Coliseum today? Ervin Santana will try and lead them to a win and he's been one of the more surprising pitchers of '08, so far. Most baseball fans know his story. In his first three seasons with the Angels, Santana pitched with confidence at home, posting a solid ERA of 3.43 with the Angels going 31-14 in those starts. However, Santana seemed totally 'lost' when on the road, posting an awful 7.28 ERA, as the Angels went 13-26. Santana was just abysmal away from Anaheim last season going 1-10 with an 8.38 ERA on the road, as the Angels went 3-11 in his 14 away starts. So what's been the story in '08? Santana is 8-2 with a 3.02 ERA overall and finally, has begun to pitch well away from home. He's 5-1 with a 3.59 ERA on the road this year in seven starts (team is 5-2). Now beating the A's has never been a problem for Santana, as he's 8-1 with a 1.27 ERA 10 career starts against them (Angels are 8-2). So does that mean I'm taking the Angels? Actually, no. Oakland's Rich Harden will oppose Santana and I'm looking for him to "come up big" in this one. Harden pitched two excellent games early this season against the Red Sox (one in Japan and one in Oakland), allowing just seven hits and only one ER in 11 innings (0.82 ERA). He then spent more than a month on the DL with a shoulder problem, returning May 11 with a start in Texas. He got 'ripped' in that game (3.2 IP / 8 hits / 5 ERs) but has been brilliant since. He's allowed only 18 hits and just six ERs (over 26.2 innings) in his last four outings, for a 2.03 ERA. Expect Harden to hold the Angels in check (not a tough task these days) and while Santana owns that great career mark vs the A's and has been a "different pitcher" this year on the road, let me point out that the A's are 8-1 vs right-handed starters in day games this year, averaging 6.7 RPG. Take the A's to avoid the home sweep.
Carlo Campanella
New York Mets at San Diego Padres
Prediction: New York Mets
The New York Mets send Pedro Martinez to the mound in San Diego on Sunday. San Diego has struggled on offense this season, averaging just 3.6 Runs Per Game with a .240 team Batting Average. That's BIG news for NY as Martinez's has watch his teams post an AMAZING 18-2 record against N.L. teams hitting .250 or worse, winning those games by an average of 4 Runs!!!
7* Play On NY Mets
John Ryan
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox (MLB) - Jun 8, 2008 1:35 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: 125 Seattle Mariners Pick Title: Seattle
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Seattle Mariners ? Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 55-43 and has made 47.8 units since 1997. Play on AL road dogs in June with a money line of +100 or higher that is a poor hitting team batting <=.260 and is now facing a good starting pitcher sporting an ERA <=4.20. Seattle starter may not be showing strong flash stats, but he is in a very strong role for this game. Note that he is 7-0 (+8.2 Units) against the money line versus an AL team with an on base percentage of .345 or better over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 8-2 versus LH starters this season so why is the line posted with Boston only a slight favorite? Every once in a while there are lines posted that make me think ?what in the world is that?? and many times that lends itself to a contrarian play. The public is all over Boston with this skinny line and that too adds to the strength of a possible upset. Bedard is also 10-1 (+10.2 Units) against the money line versus teams outscoring opposition by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Take Seattle.