THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (58-48) at N.Y. Mets (56-48)
The Cardinals snapped a five-game losing streak Saturday and now try to make it two in a row when they send Kyle Lohse (12-2, 3.35 ERA) to the mound to face Mets? left-hander Johan Santana (8-7, 3.05) at Shea Stadium in New York.
Since opening the second half of the season with four straight wins, St. Louis had lost five in a row before Saturday?s 10-8, 14-inning victory when Albert Pujols delivered a two-run homer in the 14th to get the win.
New York has won three of its last four games and 15 of its last 19 overall to pull itself into sole possession of first place in the N.L. East. The Mets have won 10 of their last 12 home games and they have gone 8-5 in the last 13 series matchups with the Cardinals.
Lohse is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last three starts and he?s 6-1 on the road this season. St. Louis had won four straight Lohse outings but lost his last one when he gave up three runs in eight innings of a 4-3 loss at home to the Brewers on Tuesday. Back on June 30 he held the Mets to one unearned run in seven innings of a 7-1 win in St. Louis.
Santana is just 4-3 at Shea Stadium this season but his ERA is a stellar 2.59. On Tuesday he gave up just two runs in eight innings but New York?s bullpen imploded and the Mets fell to the Phillies 8-6. New York has lost seven of Santana?s last nine starts despite the southpaw allowing three earned runs or less in seven of the nine.
St. Louis is 11-2 in Lohse?s last 13 starts and 4-0 when he faces teams from the N.L. East. But overall the Cardinals are on a 1-7 slide against teams with a winning record. The Mets are 1-4 at home when Santana is favored and on an 0-5 slide when he faces teams with a winning record.
With Lohse on the hill, the under is on runs of 7-2-3 overall and 4-1-3 when he?s an underdog. The Cardinals have topped the total in 13 of their last 17 road games against southpaws. When Santana has faced N.L. Central teams the over is on a 4-0 run. As a team, the Mets are on under runs of 11-4-2 in their last 17 games as a favorite and 9-3-1 at Shea Stadium.
The under is 9-5-1 in the last 15 games between these two and 6-1 in the last seven meetings in New York.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS
Florida (55-49) at Chicago Cubs (60-44)
The Marlins will try to make it three in a row at Wrigley Field in Chicago when they send young Rick VandenHurk (1-1, 6.10 ERA) to the mound against the Cubs? Jason Marquis (6-6, 4.44).
Florida has scored identical 3-2 wins in Chicago the last two days, including Saturday?s 12-inning affair. The Marlins have owned the Cubs lately, winning 12 of the last 13 matchups dating back to the 2006 season, and six of the last seven played in Chicago.
The Cubs are just 3-6 since the All-Star break but they have been tough to beat as a favorite, going 49-23 in their last 72 and at Wrigley they are 42-15 dating back to last season.
VandenHurk has made just three starts this season for the Marlins, but on Tuesday he no-hit the Braves for five innings and Florida went on to score a 4-0 win. He?s never faced the Cubs, but on the road last season the Marlins lost four of his last five starts.
The Cubs have lost three of Marquis? last four starts, but last time he pitched at Wrigley he blanked the Giants on three hits for seven innings of a 3-1 win. On Tuesday he gave up three runs in six innings of a 9-2 loss in Arizona. For his career, he?s 4-5 against Florida with a 6.88 ERA.
The over is 5-1-1 in VandenHurk?s last seven road starts and 7-3 in the last 10 home starts for Marquis. Overall, the Marlins are on ?over? runs of 38-18-6 on the road, 35-18-6 overall and 39-15-3 in their last 57 Sunday games. For the Cubs, the under is 9-2 in their last 11 against teams from the N.L. East.
For this series, the over is 16-8 in the last 24 overall and 15-8 in the last 23 in Chicago.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (58-45) at Boston (60-45)
The Yankees try to make it a sweep at Fenway Park when they send Sidney Ponson (6-1, 4.02) to the mound against Red Sox southpaw Jon Lester (8-3, 3.20).
New York has won eight straight since the All-Star break and beat Boston 10-3 on Saturday behind the pitching of veteran Andy Pettitte. The victory pulled the Yankees to within one game of Boston in the A.L. East standings and they trail the Rays by three games.
The Yankees are now 22-8 in their last 30 against teams with a winning record and they are 22-7 in their last 29 Sunday contests. Against the Red Sox, New York is 6-5 in 11 matchups this season and has won four straight, including three in a row at Fenway.
Despite two straight home losses, the Red Sox are still 41-12 in front of the home fans dating back to last season and 56-23 in their last 79 games as a favorite.
New York has won all four of Ponson?s starts in pinstripes, including Monday when he held the Twins to three runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 12-4 victory. In his lone road start for the Yankees he limited the Mets to just five hits through six innings of a 9-0 win at Shea Stadium. He?s not had much success against Boston, going 3-11 with a 6.61 ERA in 20 career starts, but he hasn?t faced the Red Sox in more than a year.
Lester has been brilliant lately, going 2-0 with a 1.90 ERA in his last three starts and Boston has won eight of his last nine trips to the mound. Last time out he threw 7 1/3 innings of shutout baseball at the Mariners as the Red Sox got a 4-0 road win. At Fenway he?s 4-1 with a 2.93 ERA and against the Yankees he?s 1-0 in two career starts with a 4.97 ERA. Back on July 3 he threw a complete-game shutout in New York, leading the Red Sox to a 7-0 win.
Boston is 25-9 in Lester?s last 34 outings and 13-3 when he faces teams from the A.L. East.
The under is 17-8-2 in Lester?s last 27 starts and 10-4 in his last 14 at home. For the Red Sox, the over is 12-4-1 in their last 17 at home against teams with a winning road record. For the Yankees, the under is on streaks of 20-8-2 overall, 7-0 against southpaws and 27-12-1 against A.L. East rivals.
In this rivalry, the over is 23-7 in the last 30 meetings at Fenway Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
