Andre Gomes
Sport: WNBA Basketball
Game: Connecticut Sun @ Washington Mystics - Sunday July 27, 2008 4:05 pm
Pick: 5 unit(s) TOTAL: Over 145 (-105) (Game of the Year)
Even though WNBA isn't exactly the most consistent league of the world, as we all know and unfortunately we have suffered from that, the play I have for this game can be considered as my totals game of the year, as it has my highest rate possible in my money management system: 5 units. That is only possible due to a number of circumstances that make this totals line to be an error of evaluation by the bookies and which gives us a great opportunity of profit.
If this game was last week I would say the totals line would be solid and we wouldn't be able to take advantage of the bookies in here. The truth is that two weeks ago, these two teams faced each other in Washington, also at a Sunday afternoon and the result was 69-64 for the Mystics, with the result being a clear under. However this was a different phase for both teams, as both Connecticut and Washington were in losing streak and without confidence. The FT's has shown exactly that: 13-24 FT and 21-31 FT. But things have changed. Now the scenario is completely different and the 145 points no longer fit in today's game scenario. The Mystics have a new coach and the team has gained a new soul, having won two of their last three games, including a win at home against Seattle by 89-57 and suddendly the worst offense in the league is now averaging 81 ppg in the first three games they have played with their new coach. The explanation is simple and it's only necessary to listen what their coach has been saying this week:
"The tempo wasn't as upbeat as I would have liked it to be in the first quarter, because when we run good things happen for us. We're going to make a turnover or two here running, but that's going to be our new identity. So I would have liked to get off to a better start there, but our defense dictates how much we can run."
Kenlaw is adamant that a full-court running game will become Washington's new identity, and the players like the athletic freedom that comes with it. Gone are most of the slow-moving, half-court offensive sets that often chewed up 15 seconds of the shot clock before Washington looked to take its first shot. In their place are fast-breaks that use the Mystics' speed to negate some of their inexperience and inconsistencies. The players are also liking their new style of the team:
"I love the style of play that Jessie's bringing to the team," Miller said. "I don't think I've ever been on a team where it has been as much up down like this, but it's definitely a lot of fun.
The result of this change in the style of the team has been wins, with the team playing with a much more quicker and offensive style.
On the other side, Connecticut which was struggling by having a five game losing streak has finally came back to the winning side. This team is a typical jump shooting team and for that they need wins to get confident, as when they have confidence, they are explosive in the attack. They have won their last two games and so, their confidence is back. Their last game even though it wasn't competitive against the Sparks was used not only to rest their best players, but to give a good number of minutes to the bench players, in order for them to gain rhythm. From the 87 points scored in that game, 42 came from the bench. So, we have two teams with confidence, which are coming from wins and playing with an high offensive tempo, which make the 145 points proposed for this game way too short. In fact in my predictions the line for this game should be higher than 150/152 points, so this is a clear oddmakers error, as this game will be clearly different from the one two weeks ago. Take the over in here as my TOTALS GAME OF THE YEAR. TRIPLE DIME PLAY
