Ben Burns
Boston Red Sox -165 / 5 units
I'm laying the price with BOSTON. Every game between these two hated rivals is a 'big' one, for both teams. Tonight's game is arguably 'bigger' for the Bosox though. That's because they're on the verge of losing three straight games at home for the first time and seeing the Yankees pull even with them in the standings. I expect the Red Sox to respond with a massive effort. I also expect them to enjoy a 'big' edge in the pitching department. Both starters have impressive win/loss records. However, Lester has been the much better pitcher recently. Last time out, he pitched 7 1/3 scoreless inning at Seattle, striking out six without walking a batter. The Red Sox won that game by a score of 4-0. Earlier this month, he tossed a complete game shutout at Yankee Stadium, allowing only five hits while recording eight K's to just two walks. The Red Sox won that game by a score of 7-0. Even including a sub-par outing vs. the Twins (Red Sox still won that game) which was mixed in between the two shutouts, he's still got an outstanding 1.91 ERA and 1.141 WHIP his last three outings. On the other hand, Ponson is starting to show his true colors. He's been a below-average pitcher for several years in a row and he's beginning to allow an awful lot of baserunners. In fact, he has an ugly 5.94 ERA and 1.80 WHIP his last three outings, allowing 31 baserunners in just 16 2/3 innings. He can't be too happy to face a highly motivated Red Sox lineup which should again have both Ramirez and Ortiz together. Indeed, Ortiz has a .444 average against him while Ramirez has a .404 mark against him. Overall, he's 3-11 with a terrible 6.61 ERA and 1.749 WHIP in 20 starts against the Red Sox. The last time he pitched at Fenway was in August of 2006 (also vs. Lester) and he allowed seven runs (6 earned) in just three innings of work. The price, which may seem a bit steep at first glance, seems much more reasonable when considering that the Red Sox are a highly profitable 15-2 the last 17 times they were listed in the -150 to -175 range. Look for them to rise to the occasion and avoid the sweep.