Sunday Service Plays 9/14/2008

[madking]

SERVICE: Mrmartingale

This guy plays using a modified version of martingale system. I dont use the martingale progression. I just play his picks straight up for equal amounts on all games because he always picks underdog odds and his hitting just above 50% which is very good for dog odds

Series 1: Sat & Sun

Bet #1783: Sep 13: NCAAF: California - Maryland
Maryland win (6.16)

Bet #1784: Sep 13: NCAAF: South Carolina - Georgia
South Carolina win (3.48)

Bet #1785: Sep 13: NCAAF: Memphis - Marshal
Memphis win (2.58)

Bet #1786: Sep 13: NCAAF: Wisconsin - Fresno St
Fresno St win (2.10)

Bet #1787: Sep 14: NFL: Green Bay - Detroit
Detroit win (2.50)

Bet #1788: Sep 14: NFL: San Diego - Denver
San Diego win (2.03)

Bet #1789: Sep 14: NFL: Pittsburgh - Cleveland
Cleveland +6 (2.02)

Series 2: Sat & Sun

Bet #388: Sep 13: NCAAF: Toledo - Eastern Michigan
Toledo win (2.24)

Bet #389: Sep 13: NCAAF: Georgia Tech - Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech win (3.24)

Bet #390: Sep 13: NCAAF: Southern Mississippi - Arkansas St
Southern Mississippi S win (2.21)

Bet #391: Sep 14: NFL: Tennessee - Cincinnati
Tennessee win (2.06)

Bet #392: Sep 14: NFL: New England - NY Jets
New England win (2.00)

copy paste of the system from ********** for those who want to play the games using the system:

I will avoid all mathematical explanation using sequence, series and functions etc in order to make it understandable to everyone--instead I will use simple words and numbers to tell you what exactly to do. In this modified version we will use 2.1 factor after each loss instead of 2 (doubling up) and set the boundary to 6 instead of infinity. Lets say the starting bet amount = 1 Unit = U. Then using 2.1 factor after each loss we get the following sequence of bet amounts:

Bet 1 = U
Bet 2 = U(2.1)2 = 2.1U
Bet 3 = U(2.1)3 = 4.41U
Bet 4 = U(2.1)4 = 9.26U
Bet 5 = U(2.1)5 = 19.45U
Bet 6 = U(2.1)6 = 40.84U
Total (Bankroll) = U + U(2.1)2 + U(2.1)3 + U(2.1)4 + U(2.1)5 = 77.06U. Therefore, this system requires a 77.06 Units of bankroll if you are to do 1 unit bets.

Tip for dummies: If you have a certain bankroll (lets say ?1000) and want to calculate the starting bet amount, divide the bankroll by 77.06 (so the starting bet amount is 1000/77.06=?12.98). On the other hand, if you want to calculate the required bankroll for a certain starting bet amount, multiply your starting bet amount by 77.06 (for example, if you want to do ?15 bets, you would require a bankroll of ?15*77.06= ?1155.9)

A failed session (6 bet losing streak) would cost us 77.06 units. Therefore, a successful session is when we gain 77.06 units without losing 6 in a row.

Rules of the system:

Bet only on events with 1.91 (-110) or better odds. Do not randomly pick games with 1.91 (-110) or better odds. Always handicap the game and find the edge--play the side that has a win estimation of 50% or better. Best way to maximize profit is to bet on good underdog odds with a win estimation of 50% or better.
All bet amounts are for "risk", i.e. use the unit amount given in the bet table (bet1=1unit, bet 2=2.1units, bet3=4.41units, bet4=9.26units, bet5=19.45units, bet6=40.84units) regardless of the odd.
Bet on the next game only after you are sure about the result of the previous bet. Whenever a bet wins, the next bet amount is bet 1 (1 unit). Whenever a bet is cancelled or voided, repeat the same bet amount on the next bet. Whenever a bet loses, use the progression until you win. If you ever encounter a six game losing streak, start over with a new bankroll.
Do not change your unit amount until you have completed a successful session. For example, if you start at 1 unit = ?10 with a bankroll of ?770.60, you should remain at 1 unit = ?10 until your bankroll is doubled (1 successful session). Now that you have double the capital, you may increase your unit size to ?20 or you may withdraw half your earnings and increase your unit size to ?15. Once you start with the increased unit size and bankroll, you should wait until you complete a successful session with the new unit size and bankroll before increasing it again. It is recommended that you select a desired unit amount and stick to it forever instead of increasing it after each successful session--increasing strategy is for those who don't have big bankroll to start right away at big unit size. It is highly recommended that you go no more than 1 unit = ?100.
Play only at safe and reliable sportsbooks.
Never randomly pick a game. Always cap your games and play only valuable bets with good odds. It is highly recommended that you use my picks to minimize risk and to maximize profit. My picks for the MrMartingale System for one of the series is yet to fail.

System Picks SERIES 1 Record

Started: September 2006
Staking Style: MrMartingale System
Bet Results: 832-817-114 (50.45%)
Number of failures: 4
System Record: 832-4 (99.52%)
Net profit after deductions: +930.86 Units
Longest Losing Streak: 8 (1 time), 6 (4 times)
Longest Winning Streak: 5 (7 times)

System Picks SERIES 2 Record

Started: January 2008
Staking Style: MrMartingale System
Bet Results: 186-162-21 (53.45%)
Number of failures: 0
System Record: 186-0 (100%)
Net Profit: +273.84 Units
Longest Losing Streak: 5 (2 times)
Longest Winning Streak: 5 (2 times)

 

[madking]

Can someon Please Lenny Football NFL Pick of the week? I know we are not supposed to post links but this guy runs his services through a google group and it will be hard to find, so i will post the link.NO LINKS ON THE FORUM:ADMINHe is 3-0 in picks of the week combined nfl and ncaa. Dating back to 2006 he is hitting over 75% in the pick of the weeks.

RECORD

Units are based on a bet of 1.1 to win 1 unit on each point-spread pick. I dont release any money line picks, however, I keep track of the moneyline for the picks of the week because they win straight up about 50% of the time. The units for moneyline are based on a risk of 1 unit on each pick's moneyline.

NFL 2008 Season

Pick of The Week: ATS: 1-0-0 (100%) +1.00 units
Week 1: Atlanta +3.5
Pick of The Week: Moneyline: 1-0-0 (100%) +1.48 units
Other NFL Picks: ATS: 3-2-0 (60.00%) +0.8 units

NCAAF 2008 Season

Pick of The Week: ATS: 2-0-0 (80%) +2 units
Week 1: Akron +26.5
Week 2: Middle Tenn St +13.5
Pick of The Week: Moneyline: 1-1-0 (50%) +3.20 units
Other NCAAF Picks: ATS: 7-3-0 (58.72%) +3.7 units

================================================

NFL 2007 Season

Pick of The Week: ATS: 14-3-0 (82.35%) +10.70 units
Pick of The Week: Moneyline: 9-8-0 (52.94%) +7.48 units
Other NFL Picks: ATS: 49-30-6 (62.03%) +16.00 units

NCAAF 2007 Season

Pick of The Week: ATS: 12-3-0 (80%) +8.70 units
Pick of The Week: Moneyline:6-9-0 (40%) +9.76 units
Other NCAAF Picks: ATS: 43-29-3 (58.72%) +11.10 units

=================================================

NFL 2006 Season

Pick of The Week: ATS: 13-4-0 (76.47%) +8.60 units
Pick of The Week: Moneyline: 8-9-0 (47.06%) +4.2 units
Other NFL Picks: ATS: 47-33-5 (58.75%) +10.7 units

NCAAF 2006 Season

Pick of The Week: ATS: 11-4-0 (73.33%) +6.60 units
Pick of The Week: Moneyline:7-8-0 (46.67%) +10.76 units
Other NCAAF Picks: ATS: 43-30-2 (58.90%) +10.00 units

 

[the duke]

Marc Lawrence Playbook

NFL


5* BEST BET
Now that we?ve paid the bills with Buffalo, it?s time to charge things up
with the Jags. Jax boss Jack Del Rio warms up when facing non-division
opposition, going 34-19 SU and ATS in his NFL career, including 17-7-1
ATS as a host. Better yet, he?s 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS at home in Games
One thru Thirteen against a foe off one-win exact. Buffi e enters off last
week?s wire-to-wire home win over Seattle, to which they were quoted
as saying, ?Hopefully we made a statement today.? The problem is this
is GAME TWO of the season, a bit early on for a 7-win team last year
to be vouching about its self -proclaimed status. When last we checked
the Bills were averaging 9 PPG in their last nine road games! That won?t
cut it here today. Buffalo falls to 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS in games against
opponents off a SU favorite loss here today. Purchase approved.
JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo by 20


4* BEST BET
Yet another Game Two matchup involving teams off disparate results
last Sunday. The Joe Flacco era got off to a resounding start when he
combined with Atlanta?s Matt Ryan to become the 2nd NFL quarterback
tandem since 1971 to win debut games on Week One (FYI: Archie
Manning and Jim Plunkett were the others). It should be noted that
NFL teams taking to the non-division road in Game Two off a SU home
dog win are a meager 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS if they were a losing team
the prior year. The Texans will look to their 7-1 ATS mark at home under
Gary Kubiak against opponents off a win to get back on track quickly.
It?s never hard fading rookie QB?s in their fi rst road outing, especially
those with a 63.7 QB rating. We?re deep in the heart of?
HOUSTON over Baltimore by 13


3* BEST BET
Last week?s two biggest upset makers collide in Carolinas. The Bears
avenged their Super Bowl loss to the Colts with a shocking win at
Indianapolis while the Panthers pounced on the Chargers in a stirring
last-play-of-the-game win at San Diego. What to do for an encore?
If you?re Carolina head coach John Fox the plan would be avoid the
dreaded FAVORITE moniker as his team is 1-11 SU and 0-12 ATS in its
franchise history when laying points against a .500 or better opponent
in Games 1 thru 6. Bears? boss Lovie Smith counters at 5-1 ATS as an NFL
head coach when facing a foe off a SU underdog win, including 5-0 SU
and ATS away Now, where else can you fi nd info like that other than
the PLAYBOOK? No deliberating here, It?s Da Bears.
Chicago over CAROLINA by 7




Pointwise Newsletter


NFL Key Plays

2--JACKSONVILLE over Buffalo 30-16
3--TAMPA BAY over Atlanta 26-13
4--San Diego over DENVER 27-17
4--Miami (+) over ARIZONA 19-20
5--SEATTLE over San Francisco 31-13

Last week "1" rated plays were 1-1, now 2-2 on the year
All rated plays last week--College 5-3 (now 8-8 on year)
NFL--3-2


JACKSONVILLE 30 - Buffalo 16 - (1:00) -- Division sandwich for the Jags, who
can't afford any letdown, following LW's embarrassment at Tennessee, when
they allowed 7 sacks, with Garrard throwing a pair of INTs, after just 3 picks all of LY. Throw in a 137-33 RY deficit (Taylor: 18 yds). A far cry from LY, when they wound up with a 29.6 ppg average in their final 12 games. Bills came in as our top NFL Red Sheet play, with 34-10 rout of the Seahawks, & are on a 16-8 spread run, but remember, they averaged just 9.5 ppg on the road LY. Jags are 15-7 ATS at home, 28-11 ATS vs non-division, & 9-2 ATS in ROs lately.

TAMPA BAY 26 - Atlanta 13 - (4:05) -- Improvement of the Falcons is apparent, with Ryan doing very nicely in his debut (9-of-13), including a 62-yd TD pass on his 3rd play. And check Turner with a team record 220 RYs, in romp of the Lions. Far cry from LY's team which allowed 33.1 ppg in its final 7 contests. The Bucs came up lacking on the scoreboard at NewOrleans, but did run for 146 yds, with Graham chugging for 91 yds on just 10 carries, & check Garcia with a decent 24-of-41. Bucs won 37-3 here LY, & are 9-2 ATS off a division
loss. Falcons 4-10 ATS off scoring 28+ pts, & 1-6 in Sept off a SU/ATS win.


San Diego 27 - DENVER 17 - (4:15) -- A year ago, the Chargers travelled to
Denver, & strolled away with a 41-3 win. As a matter of fact, SanDiego has
scored 35, 48, 41, & 23 pts in its last 4 games with the Broncs: covers of 10?, 20?, 40, & 11 pts. Now that's impressive. And since Diego is in a bounceback setup, & on a 9-1 spread run, while catching Denver off its Monday Nighter vs the Raiders, this definitely looks like an extension of that domination. Denver is only 6-18 ATS of late, while SD is 12-3 off a SU loss. Remember, even in LW's loss, Rivers was 3/0, while Tomlinson ran for 97 yds, so still among the elites.


SEATTLE 31 - San Francisco 13 - (4:05) -- Only one way to go when the 'Hawks take the field, & that's with the host squad, which has covered 29-12 of late. Just 85 RYs at Buffalo, with Hasselbeck a terrible 17-of-41. Not to say that 2 key TOs, & a punt return TD didn't help matters. The Niners just continue to flounder, averaging 11 ppg in 12 of their last 14 contests. Gore a decent 96 RYs vs the Cards (6.9 ypr), but just 13 FDs & a 5-0 TO deficit. Would you believe that both teams are 10-1 ATS in Sept off a DD SU loss? But Seattle is 12-2 ATS off a non-division loss, regardless the time or place. Bouncebacker.

ARIZONA 20- Miami 19 - (4:15) -- Have to love the way that Warner keeps on doing it. A solid 19-of-30, with a TD & no INTs in 'Zona's win over the Niners. Check a 37:05-22:55 time edge in that one, as well as 100 RYs for Edgerrin, & 5 takeaways. Cards now at 32.2 ppg in their last 9 games. Dolphins kicked it up a notch, behind Pennington's 26-of-43 showing (251 yds, 2 TDs), but it was just their latest loss (1-19 SU). 'Zona 17-8 ATS lately, but 4-12 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win, while Dolphs 15-3 as non-division RDs of 5+ pts. Miami call.






NorthCoast Power Sweep


NFL:

4* Carolina 31-17
3*Houston 28-13
2*Tampa 27-6
2*New Orleans 24-17

3* Titians U39
3*Bills U37
3* Giants 042
2* Falcons U38
2* Patriots U38



4★ Excellent
3★ Very Good
2★ Good

4* CAROLINA over Chicago - This is the 1st meeting since the 2005 Div playoff game which CAR won 29-21 as a 3 pt AD. The Bears are off LW?s SNF game vs IND & its not known how Orton or the CHI defense fared. CAR is 6-12-1 as a non-div HF & 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in it?s 1st HG. The CAR defense looks to be in mid-season form as they held SD to 17 FD & 316 yds. The DL put above avg pressure on Rivers (did only get 1 sack) but look for a mismatch against the Bears aging OL. The Bears also lack speed at the wideouts, will have rookie Forte picking up blitzes & are still adjusting with Orton at the helm. The Panthers & QB Delhomme showed their character driving 68 yds for the GW TD after allowing two 4Q TD?s. The addition of RB Stewart (53, 5.3) gives them a pair of RB?s to keep opposing defenses guessing. CAR?s 388 yds shows the strides OC Davidson has made in his 2nd season even without WR Smith who will miss this one as well. CAR is still 9-20-1 ATS as a HF but teams that start with B2B road games against a team off a SU win are 4-9 ATS. We won a 4H Key Selection with CAR LW & they picked up a huge confidence building win vs an elite AFC team & we?ll side with them again. FORECAST: CAROLINA 31 Chicago 17



3* HOUSTON over Baltimore - This is the 3rd meeting & the visitor is 2-0 ATS in the series. This is the Ravens 1st dome game in 28 games & BAL is 1-6 ATS in its 1st road game. HOU is 8-1 ATS at home with a 26.7-18.5 avg margin. BAL started QB Flacco LW & he had a decent debut with 129 yds passing (52%) with a 38 yd TD run. The story of the game was how the BAL defense dominated the CIN OL. The Ravens had 21-8 FD & 358-154 yd edges as CIN simply couldn?t execute its offense. Flacco now makes his 1st road start in a dome vs a borderline playoff contender. HOU was thrashed by PIT LW & was down 35-3 with 2:10 left in the 3Q as PIT had a 303-79 yd edge. HOU racked up 14 pts, 14 FD?s & 155 yds in garbage time. Kubiak is 6-1-1 ATS at home vs a foe off a SU win & LW?s results give some line value here. The lack of a run game is a concern (75 yds, 3.8) but HOU is a healthier team with a better QB, #1 WR, with a formidable pass rush at home & are the play. FORECAST: HOUSTON 28 Baltimore 13
OTHER SELECTIONS


2* TAMPA BAY over Atlanta - TB dominated ATL LY sweeping the series by a combined 68-10 with an avg of 295-199 yd edge. TB is 10-4-1 ATS in the series. LW the Falcons stunned the Lions by going up 21-0 at the end of the 1Q with 9-3 FD & 216-64 yd edges. RB Turner gashed the Lions for 220 yds (10.0) rushing & takes on another small, speed oriented defense. ATL had 12 plays of 13 or more yds. They only allowed 1 sack & 2 QBH with a run game that took the pressure off Ryan who only had 13 pass att?s (161 yds, 69% 1-0). TB was in a tough spot LW vs a NO team motivated by Hurricane Gustav but was only outgained by 86 yds & was forced to settle for 2 FG?s on drives into the NO 19 & 15. TB went 5-2-1 ATS at home LY winning by an avg of 23-14. Ryan now has to play in his 1st road game vs a solid TB D in the heat & look for better red-zone performance out of the TB offense as LW?s results give some line value here. FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 27 Atlanta 6


2* New Orleans over WASHINGTON - WAS beat NO 16-10 as a 9.5 pt AD in the last meeting in 2006 with a Joe Gibbs-led team. WAS?s roster is loaded with a Gibbs built NFC East smashmouth offense that is trying to move to a NFC West finesse West Coast offense. QB Campbell looked lost in LW?s game & he was worse than his 133 yds passing (56%) 1-0 ratio shows. He only spread the ball to 5 receivers. TE Cooley, WAS best passing weapon, had 2 passes thrown to him & Campbell didn?t complete a pass until 1:19 was left in the 1H. WAS was outFD 14-4 & outgained 241-51 in the 1H. NO is confident in its power rushing/vertical offense with Brees who has passed for 295 ypg (69%) with a 30-10 ratio in his L13 games. NO?s defense tallied 2 sacks, 6 QBH & 2 tfl while holding TB to just 2 of 12 on 3rd Dns (17%) as the improved DL did its job. While the NO OL is a concern with the amount of pressure Brees was under vs TB they got a big confidence restoring win & look for WAS to struggle again with basic game management. FORECAST: New Orleans 24 WASHINGTON 17

 

[the duke]

Sports Reporter


NFL

*KANSAS CITY over OAKLAND by 6
With the Oakland Raiders, there are two constants: turnovers and penalties. Make every possible positive case you want to make about how their secondary is improved, how big-armed QB Jamarcus Russell can stretch defenses, how Darren McFadden is an incredible asset to what can finally be an improved running game?but always remember that the Raiders are an organization where incompetence begins at the top with Al Davis, then trickles down to the coaches and players. The Raiders have talked about improving for six years. Hasn?t happened yet. There is only one football for each side, and the Chiefs? veteran, defensive-minded braintrust will not be overmatched by any of what is going on here. Herman Edwards,Gunther Cunningham and new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey will be watching the Raiders do whatever it is they might try to do on national TV vs. Denver on Monday Night,passing around the Cheez Doodles and Mountain Dew and making notes on how they can counter it. Sure, the Chiefs are young and have lost 10 in a row since the middle of ?07. But the Raiders? constant coaching staff and personnel shuffles frequently causes them to play younger than the sum of their ages. KANSAS CITY, 19-13.

TENNESSEE over *CINCINNATI by 3
Carson Palmer suffered through one of the worst days of his NFL career, passing for less than 100 yards and putting up a career low single game passer rating. Things should improve ? at least slightly ? against the Titans, but Tennessee?s defense is no pushover and the Bengals will be handicapped by a running game that looks to be a problem all season. Tennessee?s formula will be simple: run, run and run the football some more. Jeff Fisher knows the key to winning games is winning the battle for time of possession, and the possibility of Kerry Collins taking over for an injured Vince Young may even help the Titans win the battle of turnovers, albeit reducing the big play potential of Young?s quarterback scrambles. As we predicted in the offseason, Cincinnati will have problems all season long, as the defense hasn?t improved and the offense still lacks a consistent method of moving the ball on the ground ? a situation that won?t be helped if Palmer can?t improve his accuracy and rapport with his all-star receivers. TENNESSEE 17-14.

BEST BET
INDIANAPOLIS over *MINNESOTA by 14
Minnesota enters this season with tremendous expectations placed upon them ? expectations that might not truly be fair. Despite boasting one of the league?s best run defenses and playing in a weak conference lacking depth, the Vikings also feature a young and unproven quarterback and one of the more porous secondaries around. Coming off a short week and facing a good opponent and good quarterback coming off a sloppy game,we?re not too interested in the Vikings. There is a very strong possibility that Tony Dungy decides to have Peyton Manning come into this game throwing early and often to receivers that will overwhelm an undersized group of Minnesota cornerbacks. Once the Colts jump out to an early lead, they will settle for the two and three yard runs to eat time of possession while placing the onus on Tarvaris Jackson and a group of no-name receivers to catch up to them, effectively taking Adrian Peterson out of the game.Peterson remains one of the league?s most explosive performers and a touchdown threat every time he touches the ball, but his offensive supporting cast remains the same as ever, until proven otherwise. INDIANAPOLIS 31-17.

NEW ORLEANS over *WASHINGTON by 4
The Redskins offense should be able to muster some firepower at home and against a weak defense such as New Orleans, but the question is whether they will be able to keep up with a high flying attack that is sure to pass early and often throughout all four quarters.Washington is certainly not as bad as they looked in week one, and have the benefit of extra days of rest to prepare for this match-up, while rookie head coach Jim Zorn should learn some valuable lessons after reviewing game film from last Thursday. That being said, the difference between these two teams will be New Orleans? most valuable player, Drew Brees.Jason Campbell has a long ways to go before he is considered in the same class as Brees,and while the completions will be easier to make against this soft secondary, the Redskins will be unable to keep up with the sheer depth of offensive personnel that the Saints will bring to the nation?s capital. NEW ORLEANS 28-24.

*DETROIT over GREEN BAY by 3
If nothing else ? and there was definitely nothing there for them last Sunday in Atlanta -- you have to like the set-up for the Lions. They have one more day than the Packers to prepare for the game, and they had a chance to scout Green Bay?s performance in a division game vs. the Vikings on Monday Night. Lions? coaches were passing around the Wheat Thins and Yoo Hoo, watching Aaron Rodgers on the move and in the pocket against Minnesota?s Cover-2 defense, and figuring out how their own Cover-2, several years in the making yet still with its lunch getting eaten by a rookie QB last Sunday, can minimize what Rodgers does best while setting him up to do as many bad things as possible. It?s also not a bad thing for the Lions to be catching the Packers off a short week after the Pack was forced to bang bodies with Minnesota, which boasts two of the biggest offensive and defensive fronts in the NFL.The Pack might be wanting that extra day to heal up from the bruises that come from messin? with Sasquatch. The Lions want to be running the ball more frequently this season, and 0-21 deficits have a way of ruining such plans. Running it more in this situation might give them a few more yards than they?d normally get while loosening up that tight pass coverage the Packers like to employ. DETROIT, 23-20.

*CAROLINA over CHICAGO by 7
Carolina pulled out an inspiring upset of San Diego in week one, showing a balanced rushing attack anchored by two young running backs and displaying a strong front seven on defense that helped to stymie the Chargers offense. The return of Jake Delhomme made a huge difference, as he was able to engineer a late game drive that enabled the Panthers to score the game winning TD, something that would not have happened with Vinny Testaverde or Matt Moore at quarterback. While the Panthers may find it more difficult to attack this defense, their own defense will face an offense that does not have the capacity to move the ball like the Chargers. Regardless of whether Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman is taking snaps under center for Chicago, the Bears will be depending on a combination of defense and special teams to score points ? not a bad thing for an underdog, but the Panthers appear to be competent in all areas of the game. Bears rookie running back Matt Forte is an untested commodity, and Orton will not receive any help from a suspect wide receiver corps that does not feature a single proven NFL player. CAROLINA 20-13.

NY GIANTS over *ST. LOUIS by 3
?Oh my God, the Giants have won 10 straight road games and the Rams were 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS as a home dog last year and lost 38-3 last week. What an opportunity!? Yeah, to be on the Rams, maybe, who are as healthy as they are going to be this year, especially on the offensive line, whose first unit never saw the light of the dome in the 2007 regular season.This comes at a time when the Giants are missing the bookend defensive ends whose talents triggered a 58-sack season last year, but 1 sack opening night against the Redskins,who used a still-green quarterback named Campbell. Veteran producer Marc Bulger will hang in the pocket longer than a kid like Campbell. That?s why Bulger gets hurt so frequently. It?s also why he has a lot of TD passes in his career. Unlike the Redskins, the Rams have the right running back for their blocking schemes -- Steven Jackson -- and an offensive coordinator,Al Saunders, who could use only two pages in his 2,000-page playbook when he had limited stiffs as his quarterbacks for four games he planned as Washington?s OC against the Giants in 2006 and 2007. NY GIANTS, 24-21.

*JACKSONVILLE over BUFFALO by 1
The score was 22-14, Jacksonville, early in the fourth quarter on this field in late November a year ago. The Bills were badly injured all over the place. Their #1 RB Marshawn Lynch did not play. Yet there they were in the Jags? red zone, within one TD of tying it. Until J.P. Losman took turned the gun on his own team with yet another turnover. Balloon popped, Jags win 36-14, a deceptive final score that gets Trent Edwards one step closer to being a better choice as Bills? starting QB. The Cover-2 defense that we advertised as poison to Seattle in the Super Best Bet winner on Buffalo last week, will limit the long ones by David Garrard. TheJags will attack it with their running game and probably get an impressive rushing total ? not necessarily what anyone would want from their favorite of greater than a field goal. JACKSONVILLE,23-22.

*TAMPA BAY over ATLANTA by 6
Let?s not get too crazy about the Falcons after they jumped out to a 21-0 first quarter lead in the first game for the new coaching staff, and rookie QB Matt Ryan. But with bowling-ball RB Michael Turner, they do have the kind of weapon that gives a four-man defensive front all it can handle in the Tampa-2 defense, because when they are attacked between the tackles for four quarters, they get all pouty and winded because the corners can?t help them contain that kind of rushing attack. Interesting. This particular overrated Tampa Bay team is to be respected, but never feared as a favorite of more than a field goal. We didn?t expect to be looking with this kind of interest at the Falcons just yet, but... TAMPA BAY, 20-14.

*SEATTLE over SAN FRANCISCO by 7
The Seattle offense may take a few weeks to get on track with Matt Hasselbeck looking visibly rusty after missing most of the preseason due to injuries and the majority of their wide receiver group sidelined by one malady or another. However, even the Seahawks at 70% should be enough of a match for the lowly 49ers. Practice in Seattle will be spent emphasizing the quarterback-to-wide receiver connection, and while the lack of healthy receivers will hurt the overall consistency of the Seattle attack, the 49ers will be starting J.T. O?Sullivan in his first road game in one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. The noise will hurt communication among the offensive personnel, but even if the receivers could hear what O?Sullivan was saying, it?s doubtful that the shaky offensive line could stand up long enough against the Seattle pass rush to do anything about it. SEATTLE 24-17.

BEST BET
*ARIZONA over MIAMI by 18
It?s Rag-Arm on the road for the Dolphins. The Arizona coaches have seen Chad?s act before, when they were employed in Pittsburgh and the Steelers would habitually shut down the Jets? offense. Arizona?s personnel isn?t as good as Pittsburgh?s, but Miami has worse personnel than the Jets and the Dolphins? first-season coaches and many new players have not yet to had an opportunity to mesh on a game week-to-game week basis. The Cardinals were 4-0 ATS vs. AFC opponents in this coaching staff?s debut season a year ago. Pennington knew a lot of secrets about the Jets? defensive calls and tendencies, and yet the Dolphins scored only 14 points last Sunday. To get a handle on Arizona?s personnel and defensive tendencies, the Dolphins need more than the five weeks lead time with inside info they had on the Jets, which did not translate to either a win or a cover despite having a pair of solid running backs. Miami is a planeload of mistakes still waiting to happen on both sides of the ball. ARIZONA, 35-17.

NEW ENGLAND over *NY JETS by 2
Tom Brady?s status is in question for this week?s game against the Jets after leaving last week with a knee injury, but Patriots nation has to feel better after Matt Cassel acquitted himself well in a regular season game. Cassel consistently made good decisions and even threw some excellent passes to Randy Moss. While a serious injury to Brady would bode poorly for New England in the long term, the true storyline for this game will be the battle of the coaching minds, mentor versus student, Bill Belichik versus Eric Mangini. Brett Favre showed that his old bones still have some solid throws left in them, while Thomas Jones showed more spark in week one than he did all last season for the Jets. One thing you can count on is for Belichick to come in with a game plan that will exploit the gunslinger mentality of Favre. Expect a close game and a low total score for two teams that will struggle to consistently move to ball through the air. NEW ENGLAND 20-18.

BEST BET
BALTIMORE over *HOUSTON by 6
As stated last week, you want no part of these Ravens against a good defense.Cincinnati Not a good defense. Cincinnati?s D was so bad, that even Flacco Joe could manage a game to victory. We said some nice things about the Texans in the Zone Blitz,and perhaps they will eventually live up to them. But we also stated that John Harbaugh went about some unseen business while targeting a quick start to his Year One as head coach of the Ravens. Last week, he had Cincinnati?s ex-receivers coach on his side. What was Carson Palmer? Oh, 10-for-25, 99 yards? Hey, who out there still thinks that past big stats of overrated quarterbacks, and ATS records like Baltimore?s 3-13 ATS last year,is what makes winners here and now in the NFL? For this game, Harbaugh has the ex-Houston defensive coordinator Vic Fangio in his locker room. Fangio knows better than anyone else that the Houston defense hasn?t made a key stop since Hector was a pup.He was once one of the coaches begging and pleading for them to make one. Put check marks next to Baltimore for defense, special teams, uniquely tailored game plan, and hidden value for all the fumbles from last year that won?t be made now that they?ve cleared McNair and McGahee the heck out of that offensive backfield. BALTIMORE, 20-14.

RECOMMENDED TOTAL
UNDER 42
SAN DIEGO over *DENVER by 7
The Broncos will be handicapped by coming off a short week of rest and just now working in star receiver Brandon Marshall into the mix after his suspension for numerous offfield incidents. San Diego has owned the Broncos over the past three seasons, going 4-2 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings, and after putting up such a desultory performance against the Panthers in week one, should be looking for a little redemption.However, keep in mind that LaDainian Tomlinson is still working himself into game shape after not taking a single snap in the preseason, as has been the pattern over the past few seasons, and both Phillip Rivers and Jay Cutler will be challenged by facing off against two of the AFC?s best pass defenses. The Chargers should prevail through a superior overall offensive attack, but don?t expect many points. SAN DIEGO 17-10.

BEST BET
PITTSBURGH over *CLEVELAND by 17
The additions of Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers didn?t do much to improve Cleveland?s defensive line in week one and you have to question whether they?ll be able to win the battle in the trenches against a team historically known for their strength in the lines.Pittsburgh showed that they are capable of getting out to fast starts, demolishing the Houston Texans with a balanced offensive attack and swarming defense that gave the Texans little room to breathe. As poorly as the Browns looked for the majority of the afternoon against the Cowboys, there?s little reason to expect a different result this week. The absence of Joe Jurevicius showed in the way Derek Anderson couldn?t consistently move the ball in the air as his steady presence underneath robbed the Browns of their ability to stretch the field consistently with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. Cleveland clearly overachieved last season and took people by surprise, something that won?t happen again this season. Even in last year?s run, the Browns were unable to take on their division?s best team, and with Pittsburgh healthy and primed to start the season strong,don?t expect the Browns to avenge their embarrassing home opener against the Steelers.PITTSBURGH 31-14.

MONDAY NIGHT, SEPTEMBER 15

*DALLAS over PHILADELPHIA by 4
The early gauntlet was thrown down when Philly won by 35 points, Dallas by 18 on opening day. Tony Romo got banged around by Cleveland?s pass rush, which wasn?t very good last year, and Philly will get in his face, too. Important, new speedy offensive playmakers on both teams this season. Felix Jones on Dallas, DeSean Jackson on the Eagles. The Cowboys got a lead and padded it on the ground last week against that statue of a Cleveland quarterback who their new defensive assistant Grantham knew he could rattle, hence the Best Bet winner on the Cowboys. But the Dallas D can?t be as confidently prepared vs. McNabb,Westbrook and the rest. Let the shootout start. DALLAS, 30-26.

 

[the duke]

*** EZWINNERS NFL ***

5 STAR: (219) PITTSBURGH (-6) over Cleveland
(Risking $550 to win $500)
7:15PM Central Time

3 STAR: (202) CAROLINA (-3) over Chicago
(Risking $330 to win $300)
12PM Central Time

2 STAR: (197) NEW ORLEANS (PICK) over Washington
(Risking $220 to win $200)
12PM Central Time

 

[the duke]

Jeff Bonds

NFL Side
triple-dime bet210 SEA -6.5 (-110) BetUS vs 209 SFX

The Seattle Seahawks will turn things around against division-opponent San Francisco on Sunday - thanks to an active defense and the 12th man. After all - Seattle blitzed the 49ers to death last season, outscoring them 47-3 in the two meetings.

Seattle also is a dominant 8-1 ATS win winning at home within the division the past three years - covering the spread by an average of 12 points.

San Francisco is being led by QB J.T. O'Sullivan, as the offense fell to one of the worst NFL road teams (Arizona) mainly due to five turnovers. Definitely not an easy task to now travel to the NFL's loudest stadium and correct things on offense.

The 49ers managed to average just 11 points per game in 12 of their last 14 games and that will continue in facing BY FAR - the best defense in their division

Seattle still has a solid enough running game to display with new running back Julius Jones making his debut and Hasselbeck has the ability to bounce back from a rusty performance better than anyone in the National Football League.

The Seahawks make it a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games - marking head coach Mike Holmgren's 100th home victory of his distinguished career.

 

[the duke]

Winning Points

NFL


*BEST BET*

Pittsburgh over *Cleveland by 24
Are the Cleveland Browns ready for prime time? They sure didn?t look the part last Sunday. So has anything changed? No, not really.The Browns lack the edge rushers to bother Ben Roethlisberger, especially after losing linebacker Antwan Peek for the season.The Browns also are thin and weak in the secondary. The Steelers have a history of physically man-handling the Browns. They can do it again by running a now healthy Willie Parker, or attack through the air where Roethlisberger has many options, including Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and tight end Heath Miller. Pittsburgh has had Cleveland?s number, beating the Browns during the past nine meetings,covering eight times.The Browns need a successful ground game to keep the Steelers? pass rush and assorted blitzes from teeing off on Derek Anderson. Pittsburgh, however, is one of the toughest clubs to run on.The Steelers ranked No. 3 last year. Their rush defense has been in the top-10 each of the past four seasons.The Browns had one of the most feared passing attacks last year. It?s not in sync yet. A preseason injury to Braylon Edwards has messed up his timing with Anderson. Edwards had four drops against the Cowboys. No doubt Cleveland?s ?Dawg Pound? will be packed for this Sunday night prime time matchup. It won?t matter, though, because the Browns aren?t ready.The pressure of lofty preseason expectations and being featured on prime time works against them.The Steelers hold mental and physical edges. The Browns need a high-scoring offense to hide their many defensive blemishes. Right now they don?t have it.There are not enough consistent producers behind Edwards and tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. with veteran Joe Jurevicius out.Anderson has a strong arm, but lacks accuracy and tends to go hot and cold.The Steelers are the more consistent and better all around team. PITTSBURGH 38-14.



*BEST BET*

Miami over *Arizona 8
Even when they were so bad last season the Dolphins still lost by just a field goal six times. Now Miami has better coaching and front office personnel with proven winner Bill Parcells in charge.The Dolphins should be a very live ?dog in this spot, especially coming off a home loss last Sunday to the Jets.Anytime you can get a rising AFC team taking a decent amount of points against a mediocre NFC club such as the Cardinals, it?s a sound investment. Miami?s defensive front is underrated. Its linebackers are active.Parcells and new head coach, tough guy Tony Sparano, have made the Dolphins stronger and more physical in the trenches.This should pay dividends against the finesse Cardinals whose strength is in their two outstanding wide receivers, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.The Cardinals are a light-hitting, sloppy tackling team. Quarterback Kurt Warner is overthe-hill and so is their lead running back, Edgerrin James. Both players have a lot of mileage on them. Don?t be surprised if each is replaced in the starting lineup by mid-season.Warner still can move a team between the 20?s,but is prone to mistakes and has trouble putting up touchdowns in the RED ZONE .This is the type of matchup where the Cardinals could put up the better statistics, but lose the war.The Dolphins can?t come close to matching Arizona?s two top wideouts. However, the Dolphins have a very heady, veteran quarterback, Chad Pennington, and two solid running backs. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, who is nearly 100 percent healthy, are among the top running back tandems in the NFL.They can churn up yardage and maintain ball-control against a soft Cardinals defensive interior. This is Arizona?s only home game during the first four weeks. So the Cardinals may be pressing. They?ve dropped 18 of their last 26 home contests in September. MIAMI 24-16.



*PREFERRED*

New Orleans over *Washington by 9
Quiz time.What quarterback has passed for the most yards during the past two plus seasons? No, it?s not Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. If you said Drew Brees go to the head of the class. Unlike the Redskins, the Saints and their quarterback are in sync with their offensive system.Taking advantage of an improved Reggie Bush, Brees shredded Tampa Bay?s respected defense last week for 343 yards and three touchdowns. He can take advantage of Washington?s overrated secondary and banged-up defensive line.The Saints have improved their defense with the addition of rookie tackle Sedrick Ellis and linebacker Jonathan Vilma. Their secondary remains vulnerable.However, Jason Campbell isn?t fitting into new coach Jim Zorn?s version of a West Coast offense.The Redskins lack the rhythm and timing at this early stage to make the schemes work. Zorn already has come under fire for his inability to manage a game.The Redskins were out-gained by the Giants opening week, 354-209. Zorn is in above his head matching wits with astute offensive mind Sean Payton.To beat the Saints, you must keep their offense off the field and take advantage of their secondary. The Redskins can?t do either one at this stage. NEW ORLEANS 26-17.



Buffalo over *Jacksonville by 4
Effort, solid coaching and outstanding special teams play. Those are three things you can almost always count on when backing Buffalo. Special teams especially can?t be overlooked when handicapping Buffalo. Just ask Seattle coach Mike Holmgren. The Jaguars could only manage 33 yards rushing behind a beat-up offensive line against Tennessee last week. If the Jaguars can?t run, they are in big trouble because they don?t have the wideouts to scare secondaries.The Bills are off a big home win.They should come into this matchup in a strong frame of mind knowing Jacksonville destroyed them at this venue last year, 36-14. It?s a revenge spot.The key for Buffalo is offensive improvement.Trent Edwards is in his second season as a starter.He?s more confident with his downfield passing. Marshawn Lynch is developing into a top running back. The receiving corps is improved with the addition of second-round draft choice James Hardy. Expected to play for the first time this season is left tackle Jason Peters, the Bills? best offensive lineman.He finally ended his holdout just days before the start of the regular season. The addition of Peters gives the Bills not only better pass protection,but bigger rushing holes for Lynch. BUFFALO 21-17.



*Kansas City over Oakland by 6
The Raiders won last year at Arrowhead Stadium for the first time in six years. Oakland had lost by a combined 11 points during its previous four visits to Kansas City. The Chiefs actually have a better chance of winning with backup quarterback Damon Huard replacing injured Brodie Croyle.Kansas City was 0-7 with Croyle as its starter.The Raiders are committed to a ground attack.They are deep at running back. Kansas City ranked 28th in rush defense last season.However, the situation is terrible for Oakland, traveling off a Monday night game and playing at an early start time coming from the West Coast. The Raiders? passing attack remains a work in progress. KANSAS CITY 16-10.



Tennessee over *Cincinnati by 3
The Bengals? offensive line didn?t look good during preseason. Carson Palmer then proceeded to possibly play his worst game ever opening week. Coincidence? Palmer certainly is capable of bouncing back in big fashion.The Titans are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 away contests.They have covered 15 of 22 times as a ?dog during the Vince Young era, although Young (check status) suffered a knee injury last Sunday. His replacement,Kerry Collins, is a more accurate passer but lacks Young?s big-play ability and mobility.The Titans had the fifth-stingiest defense last year.They held Jacksonville to only 187 yards in capturing their opener.TENNESSEE 16-13.



Indianapolis over *Minnesota by 1
The Vikings are missing suspended star offensive left tackle Bryant McKinnie. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson?s strength is his mobility, but that?s limited by his wearing a knee brace. Minnesota also is on a short week after played on the road Monday night.The Colts, though, need to be careful. It?s nearly impossible to run on Minnesota. Peyton Manning didn?t practice until a week before the season. He could still be rusty. He also doesn?t have his trusted center, Jeff Saturday. Sack leader Jared Allen can make things round on any quarterback. The Colts opened their new stadium opening week and have a key AFC South showdown at home next week versus rival Jacksonville. INDIANAPOLIS 21-20.



Green Bay over *Detroit by 4
For the first time in 15 years, the Lions face the Packers not having to see Brett Favre.The Packers were 23-9 against Detroit with Favre under center.The Packers have won 11 of 16 road contests under Mike McCarthy, covering eight of their past 10 away contests.The Packers may be missing center Scott Wells (check status), a key to their offensive line. Detroit?s ground game could pick up as veteran Rudi Johnson gets more acclimated. Note to totals players.The Packers are 21-6 ?over? in their last 27 games on artificial turf. The Lions still aren?t tackling any better under Rod Marinelli. GREEN BAY 24-20.



*Carolina over Chicago by 1
The Bears have too much inexperience on offense and their offensive line is in transition. That keeps us from calling for an outright road upset.Yet this should be a very tight game, featuring plenty of running and short passes.The Panthers have little speed at the flanks with star wide receiver Steve Smith still under team suspension. He?ll return next week. The Bears defense still remains very respectable when healthy.The Panthers are much better taking points than being the favorite. They also haven?t been very profitable at home, going 5-12-1 in their last 18 at Bank of America Stadium.CAROLINA 17-16.



New York Giants over *St. Louis by 11
The Rams have bigger problems than their one-dimensional offense with declining skill position players and weak offensive line. Their defense remains horrific, surrendering 522 yards to the Eagles last week. St. Louis is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 home contests, while the Giants have won 11 straight road matchups.The Giants are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 away games.Osi Umenyiora is out for the season and Michael Strahan is in the announcing booth.Yet the Giants still maintain a fierce pass rush thanks to rising star Justin Tuck and aggressive blitzing schemes by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. NY GIANTS 28-17.



*Tampa Bay over Atlanta by 14
Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner both had outstanding debuts for Atlanta last week.Keep in mind that was at home on carpet against a porous Lions defense.Now, though, the Falcons take to the road to face a Buccaneers defense that almost always ends the season ranked in the top 10. Long-time Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin is going to have a few tricks up his sleeve for Ryan, who will be making his first NFL road start. Expect Kiffin to mix in a few blitz packages.The Buccaneers swept the Falcons last season, winning by a combined margin of 68-10.TAMPA BAY 24-10.



*Seattle over San Francisco by 6
The 49ers? defense plays softer on the road and their offense remains a work in progress under new offensive coordinator Mike Martz. Yet the Seahawks are no bargain right now with a beat-up offensive line and a cluster injury problem at wide receiver with Bobby Engram out and possibly no Deion Branch and Nate Burleson. Those are their three best wide receivers. What Seattle mainly has going is a solid defense and one of the strongest home-field advantages. The Seahawks are 43-14 at home since 2001, the second-best home mark in the NFL during this span. It?s the first road start for San Francisco?s six-year career journeyman quarterback J.T.O?Sullivan. SEATTLE 16-10.



*New York Jets over New England by 3
Tom Brady is 12-2 versus the Jets.The bad news is Brady could be finished for the season after suffering an injury to his left knee. Untested Matt Cassel looked OK filling in for Brady last week.Things would be much more difficult in this spot for Cassel, though, being on the road. Jets coach Eric Mangini coached under Patriots head man Bill Belichick for six years.The Jets will know all about Cassel. Even with Brady, the Patriots had failed to cover in nine of their last 10 games. On the flip side, Brett Favre is still learning his new teammates.The Jets could be without kicker Mike Nugent,who suffered a thigh injury. NY JETS 23-20.



*Houston over Baltimore by 7
Expect a bounce back from Houston playing at home. But until the Texans get some semblance of a ground attack, it?s hard to back them with a lot of confidence. The Texans rushed for just 75 yards against Pittsburgh last week. Baltimore has a solid run defense, too, ranking No. 2 last year. The problem for Baltimore is putting points on the board with rookie Joe Flacco at quarterback. Houston?s defense was supposed to be improved,but it didn?t look good last week. Flacco needs plenty of help, which he doesn?t have.The Ravens? offensive line is in transition and their wideouts are average at best. HOUSTON 21-14.



San Diego over *Denver by 7
Only four times in Mike Shanahan?s 14 seasons as Denver?s head coach have the Broncos failed to score a touchdown.Two of those times occurred last year in games against the Chargers. San Diego out-scored Denver, 64-6,in sweeping the Broncos. Denver has plenty of incentive after suffering their worst home loss since 1966 to the Chargers last year, 41-3. Motivation is all good and well, but the Broncos don?t have enough defense to pull the upset.Their run defense is weak and their secondary is not as good as perceived.The Chargers have covered in nine of their last 10 games. SAN DIEGO 24-17.



*Dallas over Philadelphia by 4 (Monday)
Both teams are hurting for depth at wide receiver because of numerous injuries to their wideouts. But Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo still have big-play targets. The Eagles have played the Cowboys tough at Texas Stadium, winning and covering six of their past eight visits. This includes the last two when the Eagles held Dallas to a combined 13 points. The Eagles have no love lost for former teammate Terrell Owens. The Eagles have covered nine of the past 11 times they?ve been underdogs during the past two plus seasons. DALLAS 24-20.



OVER/UNDER

**UNDER: Tennessee at Cincinnati ? The Bengals? defense is ahead of their offense, while the Titans lack dangerous wide receivers.

UNDER: Oakland at Kansas City ? Two bad passing offenses means lots of running and tight defense.

UNDER: San Francisco at Seattle ? The last four in this series have gone ?under.?The Seahawks best receivers are hurt.

 

[the duke]

Red Sheet


Pittsburgh 31 - CLEVELAND 20 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Line opened at Pittsburgh minus 4, & is now minus 5. We
originally gave the Browns the benefit of the doubt in this one, figuring that they just couldn't
be "one-year wonders", as they lit it up with regularity a year ago. Sure, they did absolutely
nothing right in their hometown 28-10 wipeout loss to the Cowboys, with a FD deficit of 30-
11, along with a 488-205 yd disadvantage. But the Steelers provided the perfect opponent
in which to erase the sudden doubts, with this NBC Sunday Nighter. But respected sources
tell us that the Browns are simply not in the class of this Pitt team which opened impressively:
Ben 13-of-14, & 138 RYs from Parker. Spread reasonable.
RATING: PITTSBURGH STEELERS 88



CKO

10 MIAMI at *Arizona

Late Score Forecast:

MIAMI 20 - *Arizona 17

(Sunday, September 14)

Expect Miami to improve substantially now that unusual Pennington-vs.-Favre, Dolphins-Jets first game is out of the way. CKO insiders say no-nonsense Dolphin HC Tony Sparano, an OL guru as an assistant, is quite pleased with the potential of the Miami OL, especially rugged rookie top-pick LT Jake Long, second-year C Samson Satele, and powerful former LT-turned-RT Vernon Carey. Thus, expect Dolphins to begin running with more authority as that unit jells in front of hard-running Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. Chad Pennington (2 TDP in opener vs. his former team) figures to be a good ball-control caretaker of the offense. So Arizona best not be full of itself after its Game One victory over still-marginal S.F. and QB J.T. O'Sullivan in his first start. Cards 0-5 last 10 years laying more than 7 points!

 

[the duke]

Jimmy Sirody

Cost: $50
Jimmy is stepping out with his first five-star play of the season in the NFL.
Jimmy doesn't go overboard and post five-star plays willy-nilly. He's found an upset special in Week 2 that meets his exacting standards.

Miami Dolphins


write up

Miami Dolphins vs Arizona Cardinals on 09/14/2008 at 1:15PM

Miami showed a lot of grit in its season opener, hanging around for much of the game against Brett Favre and his New York Jets. See no reason why the Dolphins should be this big a dog against Arizona. Miami lost six games last year by a field goal or less. The Dolphins are 15-3-1 as non-division dogs of five points or more and they are 8-4-1 as pups against NFC opponents. The Cardinals are 4-9 ATS after beating a division foe by double digits and 4-12 ATS at home off a SU&ATS win. They have also come up short in their last seven at home versus the AFC-East ATS. I'm grabbing the points with Miami

 

[the duke]

SCOTT FERRALL

Washington PK over Saints

Detroit +3 from Packers at Ford Field

Carolina -3 to Chicago

RAMS +9 from Giants in St.Louis--upset with the number

Tampa -8 to Atlanta--don't be suckered by the Falcons--they still are going to blow

 

[the duke]

RON RAYMOND

NFL O/U GAME OF THE MONTH!
$35.00

Capper Ron Raymond has released his 5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH and this O/U BEST BET is backed up by a 84% winning angle that goes back to 1983!! Would you beleive a 22-4-0 system! Ron wins this best bet winner or you don't pay!

Tennessee Titans /Cincinnati Bengals Over 37 -110

 

[the duke]

Joyce Sterling

Football L/ Season 40-21-3 RUN to end NFL regular season!!!
19-4-2 Ends College FB Season
College Bowls was the best season ever / NFL Playoffs 13-6
NFLX Cashed a successful 10-3 Run
Cashes Opening NCAA 5 STAR Game / NCAA 4-2 Run

3 NFL Best Bets
Includes 10 STAR Game of the Week
$35


10 STAR Washington +1
St. Louis +9
Atlanta +7

write ups


Washington +1
10 STAR Game of the Week

They improved on both sides of the ball last season.
They have had 9 days of rest. They can take advantage Saints vulnerable secondary.
The return of defensive backs Fred Smoot and Shawn Springs for the team's home opener will also help. Smoot left Thursday's game with a hip pointer and Springs missed it with a bruised shin, but both are expected to face the Saints' strong air attack.
New Orleans will be lacking one of its biggest playmakers for at least the next month. Receiver Marques Colston had surgery on his left thumb this week and will miss four to six weeks after sustaining ligament damage during his team's 24-20 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday.This is Zorn's home debut and his team will be ready


St. Louis +9

Defending Super Bowl Champs are just 35-55 ATS as non-division road favorites the next year. When favored in road openers, 1-7 ATS off 1 win.
The Rams turn things around Rams are 7-1 ATS as September road dogs.
Take the big points at home.



Atlanta +7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have to play without their signal-caller Jeff Garcia.
Atlanta QB Ryan, only attempted 13 passes in his debut, but completed nine of them for 161 yards without an interception..
NFL road dogs that rush for 150 or more yards are 312-67-9 ATS. Atlanta rushed for over 300 yards vs Lions last week. Take the points

 

[the duke]

CHICAGO SPORTS CONNECTION


NFC NORTH Play Of The Week (2)

DETROIT +3 vs Packers

The Packers come off a big win for Rodgers...they are on a short week ...also a sandwich game (Dallas next week on Sunday night).
And Detroit is a hungry team ...off and embarrassing loss against ATL.



CAROLINA -3 vs Bears

It will be tough for the Bears to win two straight on the road. This line would be 6 or 7 if they didn't beat the Colts on Sunday night. The Bears went from a team predicted to win 6 games to a team that will start the season 2-0 on the road ?
I doubt it.

 

[the duke]

Champion Sports

NFL Sunday, September 14:

Buffalo vs. Jacksonville 1:00 EST
Take Buffalo +4.5

Buffalo has solid coaching, strong effort, outstanding special teams plays. Jacksonville can't run. Somewhat of a "revenge" game. Buffalo has offensive improvement. The Bills are off a big home win - will have strong frame of mind. Jacksonville looked horrible in preseason.



Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta
4:05 EST Take Tampa Bay -7
Tampa Bay defense ranked in top 10. The Buccaneers swept the Falcons last season winning 31-7 on the road and 37-3 at home.


Seattle vs. San Francisco UNDER 38 4:05 EST
The last four in this series have gone under. The Seahawks best receivers are hurt. The Seahawks swept San Fran last year, winning 23-3 on the road and 24-0 at home. The past four in the series have gone "under".

 

[the duke]

Ben Burns

***HUGE*** NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR (78% TOTALS RUN!) $50.00
Well known for his over/under prowess, Ben Burns enters the weekend having gone a SIZZLING 7-2 his last nine football totals. This afternoon, he tests that 78% TOTALS RUN with his #1 NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR. Ben's 2007 NFC Total of the Year was a BIG WINNER but didn't come until Oct. 21. This year's BLOCKBUSTER comes EARLY!

Lions/Packers Under 45.5

 

[the duke]

Norm Hitzges

Double Plays

Tampa -7 vs Atlanta
NY Giants -8.5 vs St. Louis
Houston -4.5 vs Baltimore
Jacksonville/Buffalo Under 37

Single Plays

Kansas City -3.5 vs Oakland
San Francisco +7 vs Seattle
Tennessee +1 vs Cincinnati
Pittsburgh -6 vs Cleveland
Indianapolis/Minnesota Under 43.5
Kansas City/Oakland Under 36
Denver/San Diego Over 45.5
Tennessee/Cincinnati Under 37.5



WILD BILL

Saints pk (5 units)
Lions +3 (5 units)
Over 45 Lions-Packers (5 units)
Jacksonville -6 (5 units)
Indy -1 (5 units)
Tampa -8 (5 units)
Miami +7 (5 units)
Pittsburgh -5 1/2 (5 units)
San Diego -1 (5 units)
Eagles +7 (5 units)
Under 47 Eagles-Cowboys (5 units)

 

[the duke]

Tommy Dutch

Double Black Diamond Selection

NFL Play of the Month

League: NFL
Event: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns on 09/14/2008 at 5:15PM

Cleveland Browns

Promotion: Take the Browns! We're catching a bunch of points at home in a game between two teams I have rated essentially even. This is a Browns team which went 7-1 at home last season and improved in the offseason. Pittsburgh went 3-5 on the road last season including a big win at Cleveland in the first game when the Charlie Frye experiment was still in effect. The results from Week 1 help give us tremendous line value in this matchup between divisional rivals. These two teams know each other inside out. The statistical concern is that Pittsburgh was so successful running the football, while Cleveland could not stop Dallas on the ground. That's true but familiarity and a fired up Cleveland team at home are more than enough to compensate. Cleveland is expected to be a contender in the North and the Browns' season is measured on how they play against the Steelers. In the last meeting between the two teams Cleveland blew a 21-9 halftime lead and missed a field goal as time expired in a 31-28 loss. The Steelers were successful running the ball against the Browns last year and will try to establish themselves on the ground again. The Browns improved defensive front failed to impress in Week 1 but it was a tired unit. After the Browns fell behind against Dallas they were playing catch-up, throwing the ball ineffectively and putting the defense on the field for the majority of the game. The Browns rushing game was effective when used and will be the immediate focus in this contest. If established the passing game will open up and the Browns will be the right side. Cleveland will bring an A effort which the Steelers did not see against the Texans. Don't put too much stock in one game. Look for these divisional rivals to bang heads all night in a close contest. Take the Browns plus the points!

 

[the duke]

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Top Play Colts -1
Top Play Colts OVER 43
Top Play Chargers - 1



write ups

Indianapolis - 1 **Top Play InterConf GOM**
at Minnesota 1 pm et

NFL teams which lost to a non-division opponent by 7 pts or more, when they were favored by 7 pts or more rebound strongly the following week.
These teams are 15-7 the L6Ys, almost 70%, and 63-35 ATS since 1980.
Extremely strong Wk 2 specific situation to:
PLAY AGAINST any NFL Gm 2 NON DIV team AT HOME that is OFF A LOSS in Gm 1. Our Play ON team must also be off a loss in their Gm 1...14-37 S1980, 73% for 27 years when the posted line is in this range. If our Play Against host lost Gm 1 to a DIVISION opponent, when playing a winless NON-DIVISION foe in Gm 2, & the
line on the game is in this spread range, they are just 4-17 ATS, 81%..including 1-15 ATS if they were an UNDERDOG in Gm1 and scored what the Vikes did in the loss. the tighteners get us an almost perfect 94% for 27 years. Another GM 2 specific spot to: Play AGAINST a Wk 2 HOME team that Played in the Monday FB gameWk1...17-9 S1987.

extra info
The Vikes have been tough as a home underdog but they are on a short week and off a HUGE media circus marquee Monday nite game vs their hated post Favre-GB rivals. The Colts, and especially Manning, looked uncomfortable in their new stadium in Gm1. Mannings knee survived the post-op test. Peyton and Co will be more comfortable in Gm2, especially since they will benefit from playing in a dome again. Would rather bank on Manning to bounce
back then young Vike QB Tavaris Jackson. Indianapolis caught a few tough breaks in the opener. The key players should be less rusty and more relaxed with the hype of the opening game in a new stadium out of the way... and Mannings knee surviving the test. The Colts have been
a strong road team and the Vikes are still a risky play on team right now.
Minny has covered just 3 of their last 10 Gm 2's, is 2-8 last 10 home off an away.
Colts have won and covered 5 in a row and 8 of the last 9 against NFC opposition.


Minnesota OVER 43 **Top Play Inter-Conf TOM **
vs Indianapolis 1 pm et

One of our top Over systems. The 6 yr run of 14 overs in 16 chances brings the 13 yr record to 34-5 OVER, 87%. This system will come up maybe 2 or 3 teams a season. At one point, it had rattled off 12 Overs in a row. The Vikes are "over" 7 of their last 9 at home, OV 5 of the last 6 after playing GB
Colts were 6-1 OV lst season off an ATS loss, are 10-5 OV lst 15 off a SU loss.


San Diego - 2 ** Top Play AFC West GOM **

at Denver 4:15 et Game 2 specific system to :
Play AGAINST a Wk 2 HOME team that Played in the Monday FB gameWk1...17-9 S1987.
We have a rare and almost perfect set up here to:
Play ON any AWAY favorite in a DIVISION game that is off a straight up HOME loss by 3 or less...19-6-1 IF the team is a favorite in this spread range, and is also playing a team with Denvers WL mark from LY, 13-2-1. thats close to 90%. extra info Success has been a spoiler for Denver who is 27-47 ATS
off a SU win S2000. Denver is just 4-10 L14 at home. Defeat has been an adrenaline shot for the Bolts. SD is 12-3-2 ATS off a SU loss. SD is 22-10 as rd fav since ?92 We think Denvers dream of padding the top rung of the AFC West with SD's home loss and the Bronco's road win, will turn into a nightmare here. Denver faces a short week,
and we expect a much better effort from the Bolts on both sides of the ball. Denver is no longer the dominant home team of past years which gives us a great line here.

 

[the duke]

King Creole

NFL Total
double-dime bet194 CIN / 193 TEN Over 37.0 Bodog
Analysis: 1:05pm ET / TENNESSEE TITANS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 36.5 or less


1:05pm ET / NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 42 or less


1:05pm ET / Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 37.5 or less


1:05pm ET / NEW YORK GIANTS @ ST LOUIS RAMS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 41.5 or less


4:05pm ET / Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 37.5 or higher

Let's lay out all applicable OU Systems that we queried in regards to the week two NFL schedule. We'll start first with a handful of solid OU RUSHING Systems.

ALL four of the teams involved in King?s 2 UNDERS are off gaudy Game One RUSHING totals. Chic:183 yds... Caro:142 yds... Atl: 318 yds... TB: 146 yds. And all four teams are therefore active this week in some variation of a solid ?UNDER? rushing System.
GAME TWO road teams are 0-5 O/U since 1999 off a SU win w/ 140+ rushing yds against an opponent ALSO off a game w/140+ rushing yds. Both CHICAGO and ATLANTA qualify.

What really jumps out at you from last week is Atlanta?s 42 rushes for 318 frickin yards in the win over the Lions. Only 11 NFL teams have rushed for 300+ yards in this decade. And in their very next game, UNDERDOGS (or ?pick em) have gone a PERFECT 0-4 O/U.

In a hot OVER run over the last 2 seasons, one of today's teams applies in an OU Rushing 'futility' System.
In ALL games, Underdogs of 7 > points playing off a SU loss in which they rushed for < 50 yards (RAMS) are 12-1 O/U in the last 2 years.

Speaking of the Rams, their woeful week one loss of 35-3 to the Eagles has them active in multiple OU Systems.
Since 2000 in ALL games, NFL teams off a SU road loss of 35 > points are 24-9 O/U... and a PERFECT 9-0 O/U in the last 3 years. If the OU line is 40 > points, the results are 12-1 O/U since 2000 (RAMS).
In the last 12 months, NFL home teams playing off a SU loss in which they allowed 300+ passing yards are 17-3 O/U (RAMS).
In the last 2 years ALL home dogs are 19-4 O/U off a SU loss in which they allowed 4 > sacks (RAMS).

Week Two teams playing off a week one SU DIVISION win are prime "play ON" candidates for OVER players. The results are particularly good when taking on non-division competition in week two. That would have us looking at HIGH-scoring results for the GIANTS, SAINTS, and TITANS.
This System is based on the fact that the two teams that are playing each other are actually BOTH off a division game:
11-1 O/U since 2003 in ALL games: Non-division teams playing off a SU home DIVISION WIN versus an opponent off a SU road DIVISION loss... with an OU line of 44 < points. NEW ORLEANS is a qualifier, based on their home win vs the Bucs last week and Washington's road loss to the Giants last week. Your other qualifier this week is TENNESSEE. They beat the Jags last week at home while Cincy lost on the road against the Ravens.

GAME TWO road teams who are off a BIG division win of 8 > points are 8-2 O/U since 1996... and a PERFECT 6-0 O/U in the last 10 years (GIANTS).

"Tight" lines for teams off a dog win have resulted in high-scoring games.
In the last 4 years, NFL favs or dogs of 3 < points are 11-1 O/U when playing off a SU win as a dog of 4 < points (TITANS).
In the last 10 years, NFL Underdogs playing off a DOUBLE DIGIT ATS division win (TITANS) aew 12-2 O/U.
In the last 2 years, NFL favorites of 8 < points are 12-1 O/U after a road game in which they had 26 < minutes in offensive time of possession (BENGALS).

Let's examine what happens when teams come into Game Two off a REALLY big game one DOG win (like Carolina and Chicago).
GAME TWO teams off a DD SU win as a dog of +4 > pts (PANTHERS) have gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in the last 10 years.

SEPTEMBER home favs playing off a SU win as a dog of 7+ pts (BEARS) are a PERFECT 0-5 O/U since 2000.

Last week?s final score in the Carolina / San Diego game was 26-24. It was one of only TWO games in which both teams scored 20 or more points. The only other qualifier was the Saints vs Bucs (24-20 final score). Here?s what the database spit out:
GAME TWO home teams who scored AND allowed 20+ are 1-11 O/U since 2002... and 0-4 O/U off a SU win (PANTHERS + BUCS).

What's the best (or most profitable) OU Line range for week two?
If you're looking for the Best OVER results, check this out:
NFL WEEK TWO games in which the OU line is 40 to 43 points have gone 16-5 O/U since the 2001 season... and 10-2 O/U in NON-division games. Your ONLY two qualifiers in this OU line range on Sunday are: RAMS vs GIANTS... and SAINTS vs REDSKINS. Another reason that we must play BOTH of them.

GAME TWO home favs of < 7 pts with an OU line if < 38 pts (BEARS / BUCS/ CHIEFS) are 0-6-1 O/U in the last 3 years.

The defending Super Bowl champs looked pretty sharp in their opening game on Thursday night against the Redskins. Based on that game, BOTH teams qualify in solid OVER Systems.
In the last 10 years, NFL teams off a SU DIVISION win on a THURSDAY are 12-4-1 O/U.... and 7-1-1 O/U on the road (GIANTS).
In the last 10 years, NFL non-division teams off a SU THURSDAY road loss are 8-2 O/U... including a PERFECT 6-0 O/U at home (REDSKINS).

 

[the duke]

50Cent

Thanks for the plays

GL