Dr rob
NFL Best Bet Sides
3 Star Selection
Oakland (+3.5) 17 KANSAS CITY 13
14-Sep-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Oakland looked horrible in their 14-41 home loss to Denver on Monday Night Football, but that nationally televised loss has served to put the Raiders in a good situation this week. The Raiders apply to a very good 69-18-1 ATS bounce-back situation that is 25-4 ATS in week 2 and they also apply to a similar 26-2 ATS week 2 angle. My ratings would have favored the Chiefs by just 1 point prior to last week?s results, so the line has certainly been adjusted for how poorly the Raiders played. Oakland?s offense performed pretty well (5.4 yards per play), but their defense was horrible in allowing the Broncos to rack up 7.9 yards per play. Oakland has good personnel on defense and I expect that unit to bounce back with a good effort against a sub-par Kansas City attack. I actually upgraded the Chiefs offense with veteran Damon Huard in place of injured starting quarterback Brodie Croyle, who averaged only 4.7 yards per pass play last season. Huard has averaged 5.6 yppp during his career and 5.55 yppl since last season, so he?s an upgrade. Kansas City?s defense caught a break and spent most of last Sunday defending Matt Cassell instead of Tom Brady, who was injured in the first half. The Chiefs are probably going to be below average defensively this season without pass rushing star Jared Allen, but they ought to keep the Raiders in check. My ratings favor Kansas City by 3 points after adjusting for last week?s games and installing Huard at quarterback for Kansas City, so the line is fair. The situation is strongly in favor of the Raiders and I?ll take Oakland in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 ? points (-115 odds or better) and for 2-Stars down to +3 points (-120 odds or better).
I?ll also consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 35 points or higher based on a 94-38-5 Under situation.
3 Star Selection
San Francisco (+7) 21 SEATTLE 19
14-Sep-08 01:05 PM Pacific Time
San Francisco is one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season, but losing 13-23 at home to Arizona has hidden that fact. The 49ers were the worst offensive team in recent memory last season, but bringing in offensive coordinator Mike Martz has revitalized the 49ers? attack and quarterback J.T. O?Sullivan looks like he?s more than capable of putting up adequate passing numbers to go with the good running of Frank Gore. O?Sullivan averaged 10.6 yards per pass attempt in the pre-season and followed that up with 20 passes for 195 yards last week (9.75 ypa). I?m not ready to call for O?Sullivan to make the Pro Bowl, but he?s averaged 8.3 ypa on 165 passes in Martz? system in the pre-season and regular season combined, including 7.5 ypa on 46 regular season passes. If I include sacks, which I always do, then O?Sullivan has an overall average of 7.4 yards per pass play in Martz? system (including preseason), including 5.9 yppp on 53 regular season pass plays (7.6 yppp last week). That?s just a bit below the league average of 6.1 yppp and I have O?Sullivan rated as an average quarterback on a yppp basis ? but with a high interception rate. With Gore being a better than average runner the 49ers can move the ball at a better than average clip, which was proven by the 6.8 yppl that the Niners averaged last week. San Francisco has a pretty solid defense too and that unit held the Cardinals? better than average attack to just 4.3 yppl. San Francisco should have beaten the Cardinals by about 10 points, but they lost by 10 thanks to 4 lost fumbles and zero turnovers for the Cardinals. Fumbles are mostly random in the NFL, so it?s unlikely that they?ll repeat those mistakes this week. If the turnovers are close to even then San Francisco should have no problem competing with an overrated Seahawks team was out-played 3.8 yppl to 5.4 yppl by the Bills in their 10-34 loss. Seattle does have a better than average defense (although they didn?t show it last week), but the Seahawks are hurting on offense with no capable receivers on the roster for quarterback Matt Hasselbeck to throw to. All of last year?s top 4 wide receivers are gone, as D.J. Hackett left as a free agent, Bobby Engram is still out with a bad shoulder, Deion Branch is still recovering from knee surgery and Nate Burleson, who led the team with 5 catches last week, is out for the season after injuring his knee last week. Seattle isn?t a good enough running team to beat the 49ers, who are pretty good defending the run, and my ratings favor Seattle by just 3 ? points in this game. In addition to the line value, the 49ers apply to a very good 69-18-1 ATS bounce-back situation that is 25-4 ATS in week 2 and Seattle applies to a negative 28-87 ATS situation that is based on last week?s loss. I?ll take San Francisco in a 3-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 2-Stars from +5 ? to +3 ? points.
NFL Strong Opinions
Green Bay (-3.0) 26 DETROIT 19
14-Sep-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
I rated Detroit as the 5th worst team in the league heading into the season and they just proved that they are not as good as one of the teams I had rated below them. Losing 21-34 to Atlanta is a sign of trouble, as the defense allowed 322 yards on 38 rushing plays while allowing rookie quarterback Matt Ryan to average a tidy 11.1 yards on his 14 pass plays. Detroit?s offense played about as expected with 5.5 yards per play against a below average Falcons? defense, but a mediocre offense is not going to cut it against a good Packers team that plays solid defense and looks sharp on offense. Green Bay?s Aaron Rodgers showed why the Packers didn?t want Brett Favre to come back, as Rodgers completed 18 of 22 passes for 8.1 yards per pass play and no interceptions. Green Bay also ran the ball for 5.6 yards per rush against the best run defense in the league in Monday?s 24-19 win over the Vikings and RB Ryan Grant is probably doing cartwheels in the film room while looking at Detroit?s run defense. My ratings favor Green Bay by 9 points in this game, but I?ll resist making the Packers a Best Bet since the Lions apply to a 28-3-1 ATS bounce-back situation. Green Bay does apply to an 81-39-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator and I?ll consider Green Bay a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.
Buffalo (+5.5) 20 JACKSONVILLE 21
14-Sep-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
The Bills are a young team on the rise and they showed that last week with an outstanding all-around performance in a 34-10 win over the Seahawks. Buffalo out-gained Seattle 5.4 yards per play to 3.8 yppl and had their usual great effort on special teams (punt return TD and fake FG TD). I still rate the Bills at below average offensively, but their young defense became a better than average unit starting week 5 of last season when changes were made in the secondary. That defense is even better this season and rates at 0.4 yppl better than average. Jacksonville?s offense was malfunctioning last week against a good Titans? defense (just 3.3 yppl) and they will probably post just mediocre numbers against the Bills. The Jaguars are a solid defensive team, but they are still susceptible to the pass (Kerry Collins killed them last week after Vince Young left the game with an injury) and Bills? quarterback Trent Edwards looks pretty comfortable throwing the football (he averaged 6.9 yards per pass play last week with no interceptions). My ratings favor Jacksonville by 5 points, so the line is about right, but Buffalo applies to an 81-39-4 ATS statistical indicator while the Jaguars apply to a negative 33-76-3 ATS early season situation. I?ll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I?d take the Bills in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.
Philadelphia (+7) 21 DALLAS 23
15-Sep-08 05:30 PM Pacific Time
Philadelphia appears to be an underrated team to start this season. My ratings favored the Eagles by 14 ? points last week against the Rams (a 38-3 win) and my ratings favor Dallas by only 3 points in this game, as I have these teams rated the same. The Eagles have a great running back in Brian Westbrook and Donavan McNabb looks completely healthy after spending last season recovering from his knee surgery. The addition of rookie DeSean Jackson has been a bigger factor than most anticipated, as Jackson led the Eagles in receiving yards last week (6 catches for 106 yards) while also setting up a touchdown with a 60 yard punt return. Philly?s defense was pretty good last season (5.2 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and they?ve added top cornerback Asante Samuel to make the pass defense even better. The Rams were limited to 166 total yards at 3.7 yppl last week and the Eagles are capable of slowing down an explosive Dallas attack. I actually rate Dallas as being slightly better than the Eagles offensively and 0.2 yppl better on defense, but McNabb is the current all-time leader in lowest interception percentage (2.1%) while Dallas quarterback Tony Romo is intercepted 3.7% of the time during his career, which is worse than the league average. Aside from the line value, I also like the fact that Eagles? head coach Andy Reid is 41-21-2 ATS in his career as an underdog or pick. I?ll consider Philadelphia a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.
Indianapolis 19 at MINNESOTA 20 UNDER 43.5
14-Sep-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Peyton Manning showed some rust in the Colts? opening night loss to Chicago and he managed to average just 5.4 yards per pass play, which is much lower than the 7.5 yppp that we generally see from him. Some of the credit must go to the Bears? defense, but Manning wasn?t looking downfield as much as he usually does, which could have been the result of missing all of training camp and the preseason. I expect Manning to be sharper this week and Minnesota?s pass defense looked vulnerable last week against the short passes of Aaron Rodgers, which kept the Minnesota pass rush at bay (0 sacks against Green Bay). The Colts didn?t do a great job against the Bears? rookie runner Matt Forte, so there is some concern about stopping Adrian Peterson this week (the Vikings averaged 5.5 ypr last season and 5.7 ypr in their opener). The pass defense should have no trouble shutting down a sub-par Tarvaris Jackson, so it all comes down the run defense. The Colts were better than average in run defense last season, so last week may have been an aberration. Still, I expect Peterson and backup Chester Taylor to get their yards. My ratings favor the Colts by 1 point, so the line is about right, but Minnesota applies to a very good 81-39-4 ATS statistical indicator and I?ll lean with the Vikings based on that. I?ll also consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 43 points or higher based on a 94-38-5 Under situation that applies to this game.
