Comps
Totals 4 U
Indianapolis (0-1) The Colts were seriously clowned Sunday night by the Bears13-29 and you don?t have to look much closer than their offensive and defensive lines to find the cause. The defensive line of Brock, Dawson, Johnson, and Freeney average just 6? 2 ?? and 273 pounds per man and things don?t improve when rush specialist ends 6?2? 245 Robert Mathis enters the game. Ok, so 6?2? 296 RDT Ed Johnson is a very promising 2nd-year player (10 T vs. Chicago) but what the heck is 2nd-year Keyunta Dawson doing playing left defensive tackle in the National Football League at 254 pounds? I had to check 8 different sources before being convinced that his weight wasn?t a typo! The Bears didn?t bother checking; they just abused the Colts for 183 rushing yards. Behind this ?wall? Indianapolis favors ? wait for it ? small linebackers in starters 6?0? 235 SLB Clint Sessions, 5?11? 235 MLB Gary Brackett, and 5?11? 226 Freddy Keiaho. This crew is actually pretty effective (combined 34 tackles) but 6?2? 240 rookie Phillip Wheeler can?t crack first string soon enough for us. Corners Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson are decent while safeties 5?11? 203 Antoine Bethea (11 T) and 2007 AP Defensive Player of the Year 5?8? 206 Bob Sanders (10 T) are superb?they have to be. Offensively, Coach Tony Dungy (73-24 in 7th season) has all the talent he needs to succeed at the skill positions with WR Marvin Harrison (8 for 76), WR Reggie Wayne (10 for 86 and TD), WR Anthony Gonzales (5 for 48), RB Joseph Addai (12 for 44), RB Dominic Rhodes (4 catches for 30 yards), and 8-time Pro Bowler QB Peyton Manning (30 of 49 for 257 yards, TD) but has major issues up front. 6?6? 320 RT Ryan Diem is a reliable veteran but 6?5? 301 LT Tony Ugoh is in his 2nd year and could use more size. C Jeff Saturday misses with a knee injury and was replaced by 6?5? 295 rookie C Jamey Richard who?s level of competition at the University of Buffalo is dubious. Rookie RG Mike Pollack was slotted for a starting job but his knee injury gave 6?6? 290 converted tackle Daniel Federkeil his first career start opposite of 6?4? 305 Charlie Johnson who also made his first career start Sunday night. The opening week loss snapped a string of 60 consecutive regular season weeks at or tied for the top of the AFC South or the 5-time defending division champions.
Minnesota (0-1) The Vikings lost at 19-24 at Lambeau Field Monday but showed some encouraging signs of offensive life in the second half. After 3rd-year QB Tavaris Jackson (16 of 35 for 178 yards, TD, INT) managed 2 completions for 16 yards in the first half, he managed 162 pass yards after the break and added 65 yards with his feet in the game. 6?1? 217 RB Adrian Peterson (19 for 103 and TD) picked up where left off while his back up Chester Taylor (5 for 19 rushing, 3 for 21 receiving) chipped in when called. Tight ends Shiancoe (3 for 21) and Mills (3 for 49) got into the action but if decent games are to become wins for Coach Brad Childress?s (14-19 in 3rd season) crew, Jackson must effectively get the ball down field to receivers 6?4? 202 Sidney Rice (2 for 31 and TD), 6?1? 185 Bernard Berrian (3 for 38), 5?10? 186 Bobby Wade, and 6?1? 219 Robert Ferguson. Five total completions to wide outs isn?t good enough to win in this league and behind an offensive line that surrendered a single sack, it isn?t good enough to keep a starting job in this league. The situation at left tackle could be critical this week. 7-year veteran and starter Bryant McKinney is serving a suspension through Week 4 and his replacement, Artis Hicks, left Monday?s game with an elbow injury. 6?6? 321 Marcus Johnson finished the game on the blind side but if Hicks can?t go on Sunday it is an issue and 6?5? 305 rookie free agent Drew Radovich will likely come off the inactive list as insurance. Without question the Viking defense starts with defensive tackles 6?3? 317 Pat Williams (6 T) and 6?5? 311 Kevin Williams (6 T) who are typically unmovable but they were had by a makeshift Packer offensive line last week, surrendering 139 yards at 5.1 yards per carry and a score on the ground. Pitching a sack shutout against Minnesota isn?t an easy but Green Bay did just that while holding prominent free agent acquisition 6?6? 270 RDE Jared Allen without even a single tackle. Backers Leber, Henderson, and Greenway are a dynamite group, corners Winfield and Griffin are adequate, while Minnesota has issue at safety. 12th-year SS Darren Sharper started showing signs of slowing down last season and free agent add FS Madieu Williams will miss up to 6 weeks with a neck injury. 6?0? 207 rookie FS Tyrell Johnson filled in for Williams and was schooled by a 56-yard play action pass to Greg Jennings that led to a touchdown.
FREE SELECTION: The issues for Indianapolis run deeper that a ?rusty? Peyton Manning and they won?t be fixed overnight. Minnesota?s strengths at offensive and defensive line correspond with the Colts lacking at those groups while having 34 players on your roster that are 25 years or younger breeds mistakes for Indy. We?re not big fans of betting against vastly superior coaching, Coach Dungy?s squad has not convinced us they are ready to win on the road. Take Minnesota +2 at the Humpty-Dumpty Dome.
Computer Sports
AFC West rivals get it on Sunday in the Mile High city. Denver is 1-0 after it?s 41-14 pasting of what once again appears to be a hapless Raider franchise. While the Chargers dropped a heartbreaker on the games last snap to what looks like a vastly improved Panther squad.
Denver lead by a now healthy and strong after being diagnosed with diabetes , Jay Cutler amassed 441 total yards Monday night. Cutler?s 299 passing yds and 2 Td?s coupled with the suprising play of fill-in wr (for suspended Brandon Marshall) Eddie Royal 9 catches for 100+ yards torched the Raiders early and often. The running game featured a running back by committee approach lead by a re-birth of Michael Pittman.
San Diego got bad news on and off the field this week. Sunday?s late loss coupled with star line-backer Shawn Merriman?s decision to have season-ended knee surgery, puts a major downer on Week 1. Besides the normal workman like effort of Ladainian Thomlinson (97 rush yards), the Chargers did get an impressive outing from hit or-miss QB Phillip Rivers. His 3td, no int performance should give San Diego something to feel good about heading into Denver.
CSS ANALYSIS: AFC West games are traditionally very close contests, with many being decided by a field goal. That will probably be the case again Sunday. We were not convinced by the preseason hype surrounding San Diego?s Defense, and with the loss of Merriman we have even more doubt. Look for this one to be a scoreboard operators nightmare.
FREE PICK TAKE SAN DIEGO /DENVER OVER 45
Easy Money Sports
There are always a few surprises in week one and this year was certainly no exception. The Patriots got a tight victory but lost QB, Tom Brady, for the season. The other two of many ?experts? top three in league, the Colts and Chargers, both lost and week two is sure to have more excitement. The only action for me in those three games was a best bet win with ten point underdog Carolina (Outright over San Diego) and overall for the weekend we delivered a Perfect 6-0 with Football Locks. Our complimentary game breakdown for week two is when those Panthers from Carolina host the Chicago Bears. Last week it was the Bears that took down Indianapolis as a double digit underdog and it was even further surprising how it was accomplished with considerable ease, but more on that in a bit.
Carolina has returned to the power football that was successful for them in the past but was lost recently for numerous reasons. It may be another good that comes from the bad of speedy WR Steve Smith?s absence (team suspension) for the first few games. Head coach John Fox?s power game starts with a two headed monster running attack with DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart. The offensive line is also a key and they man handled the Chargers for most of the ball game helping the Panthers as a team rush for 142 yards at an impressive 4.9 yards per carry. Seven different Panthers caught a pass from QB Jake Delhomme last Sunday including the game winning 24 yard touchdown, by Dante Rosario, as time expired. For the day, Rosario, caught seven passes for 96 yards including the game winner (26-24 Final) on fourth down. Veteran WR Muhsin Muhammad , also added six catches for 56 yards which landed four important first downs for his squad.
Chicago pulled off it?s upset of the Colts in dominating fashion nearly the entire game. The Bears absolutely controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and first year RB Matt Forte rushed for 123 yards. Forte was the first rookie to start at RB for the Bears since Walter Payton in 1975 and this, like the ?75 decision, looks like another great one. In this system, QB Kyle Orton, is simply asked not to make mistakes and that?s exactly what he did?or didn?t do. He totaled just 150 passing yards by spreading the ball to seven different receivers but most notably never turned the ball over for the entire game. The Defense scored twice (1 TD & 1 Safety) in the 29-13 Chicago win and many have hope for Da Bears in 2008. Head coach, Lovie Smith, has worked hard on getting his guys to continue to play with a reckless nature but with more control for assignments and field responsibilities. So far is seems to be working well and now the questions are staying controlled but fierce on D and keeping the young runner on O healthy.
Lee Stevens has a Free Daily Selection on his web site which is available with a simple visit and has no obligation. You?ll also get big play alerts and record performances (like Our 6-0 with Football Locks) completely free of charge just for coming to the web site. You Free Winner here is the Carolina Panthers -3 on Sunday over Chicago. Take Carolina as they cover the number with a victory around the double digit neighborhood.
Hawkeye Sports
Well both of these teams would have liked for their seasons to start a bit differently as both lost in the opener. San Francisco lost to Arizona 23-13 and didn?t show much on the offensive side of the ball. Frank Gole put up decent numbers but it really was one long run that swayed his final stats. I just don?t see the offense showing any more this week then kicker Joe Nedney. The defense isn?t dominating, but they don?t need to as Seattle offense might be even worse. The seahawks might have a plethera of backs, none of them seem to be the work horse they need. Losing another receiver hurt and now the passing game will struggle even more. So as you can tell, theres is nothing about either one of these teams that shows me that they will dominate this game and that?s why I am releasing the total in this one. The under looks to be the only play here. it looks as if the total is sitting at 38? and I would be shocked if these game was anywhere near that line. So, take under the total and take it to the bank.
Dark Horse Sports
There is a reason why this total is one of the lowest on the board. In Buffalo and Jacksonville we have two teams that like to play the game in an old school fashion. On offense they want to run the ball and control the time of possession. On defense they are looking to stop the run first and foremost and hold the opposing team to a low third down percentage.
No team has had worse luck along the offensive line this year than Jacksonville. Despite the injuries, there appears to be no indication that they will adjust their typical game plan. The Jaguars have a makeshift offensive line and that could mean a long day for the offense. Even if they look to open up the playbook a bit, they do not have the personnel to sustain an effective passing game. All in all, look for a close, low scoring slugfest. Buffalo is tough and will keep this game to within a field goal.
Take Buffalo and the under.
