Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons | NFL Total
double-dime bet208 TAM / 207 ATL Under 37.5 Bodog
DOC SPORTS
3 Unit Play. #98 Take Kansas City over Oakland (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) Kansas City 24, Oakland 10.
Winner's Edge Online
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguarss
Line: Jaguars -5.5
Game Betting Analysis
Buffalo looked very good in their 34-10 drubbing of Seattle while Jacksonville had all kinds of problems in their 17-10 loss to Tennessee.
The Bills know they have to run the ball to have success in this game. Trent Edwards is not an elite QB yet and needs the ground game to take pressure off. RB Marshawn Lynch is a dual threat in the backfield and the Jags need to be concerned with him on every down. Jacksonville is still a top defense but they can tire if teams have success pounding the ball at them. WR Lee Evans was able to get free last week and make big plays and he'll be a handful for the secondary. He and Edwards are starting to get comfortable together and Evans should draw coverage away from TE Robert Royal, who was very effective against the top LBs of the Seahawks.
The key for Buffalo is to be effective on 1st down. Their offense isn't generally a high-flying scoring machine and they aren't built for big comebacks. If they can get four and five yards on 1st down, Edwards will be very effective. The Jaguars usually need to blitz to get a consistent pass rush and that will put the Bills in man coverage, an area they can exploit with Evans and speedy WR Roscoe Parrish.
Jacksonville's offense took a hit as they have lost both starting guards (Vince Manuwai and Maurice Williams) to IR. They signed Todd Wade and G Tutan Reyes figures to start. They also have Milford Brown and Uche Nwaneri, so these aren't devastating injuries but they hurt nonetheless. QB David Garrard threw only three picks last season but tossed two last week and also lost a fumble when the team was driving in the red zone. The usually potent ground game was dormant against the Titans and now faces the improved front seven of the Bills. DT Marcus Stroud returns to face his former mates and the addition of SLB Kawika Mitchell and return of MLB Paul Posluszny has really strengthened a run defense that has been porous in recent years. WR Matt Jones emerged as Garrard's favorite target last week and his size could pose a problem for the defense.
The Bills have the best special teams in the league and Parrish returned a punt for a score last week. This is figures to be a tight game and special teams could decide it. We don't feel Jacksonville's offense is near their defense yet and the Bills' pass rush could have another big day against an offensive line that is hurting.
GAME PICK: Take the Bills **Best Bet**
RANDALL the HANDLE'S NFL PICKS
THE BEST:
New England @ NY Jets
Granted, one of the premier players in the game went down last week as the Patriots will be without Tom Brady for the 2008 campaign. But to suddenly make a Jets team that was 4-12 last year a favorite over this superior division mate is just plain asinine. Fortunately for us, the marketplace may have dictated this line by false impressions created in pre-season as QB Matt Cassell operated a mock New England offence. Don?t be fooled. The Jets are mediocre while the Patriots remain superior.
TAKING: New England +2 ?
RISKING: 2.2 units to win 2
Buffalo @ Jacksonville
We?ve noted the importance of the offensive line on numerous occasions and right now, Jacksonville?s is a mess. Two more linemen went down to add to the pair of starters already missing from the Jaguars front line. Observing the seven sacks that the Jags gave up last week will only have ex-Jaguar Marcus Stroud foaming at the mouth as his 1-0 Bills arrive here. Buffalo was very impressive in opener and this is roomy enough for us to step in.
TAKING: Buffalo +5
RISKING: 2.2 units to win 2
Philadelphia @ Dallas
The Cowboys were nearly flawless in their dismantling of the Browns last week but this is a different animal. The Eagles are a sound club and are feeling very confident after seeing some signs that their perennial deficiency, competent receivers, may be resolved. Philadelphia will not be intimidated here as past two visits has seen Dallas held to 7 and 6 points respectively. In addition, the Eagles are a lucrative underdog having covered 9 of past 11 when handed points.
TAKING: Philadelphia +7
RISKING: 2.2 units to win 2
