the Masters

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks Big Tease on Hoch data. I was already scouting hedge as I stupidly made that wager by eyeball before looking at weather.
Cool and rain is also not conducive for Hoch as he showed last year missing cut with 76-75. I'll just have to hope Zinger throws in bigger #,s but it was poor selection.
Speaking of weather it may help some to note that anticipated weather is almost identicle to last year when it rained some fromMonday till Saturday.

adding 72 holes
Harrington +130 over Mick
Goosen +100 over Mick @ 365
Faldo -110 over Rollins
Taking experience over newby--and Faldo did well in this weather with 14th last year.
Cabrera -105 over Roberts
Don't think added lenth and wet terrain will be any help to Roberts.
Faxon +100 over Couples @ Cascade
Tough to fault Faxon here despite better play by Fred of late.
Haas -105 over Tripp @ 5dimes
Haas been cashing chips all year will call on him once again.
Tripp did not appear to fancy course last year despitemaking cut.
Goose -130 over Toms @ $plays
Harrington +100 (-1 stroke) over Toms @ $plays prop area

Tough to fade Toms and Mick in 2 matches especially with same duo--but both Harrington and Goose played well here in same conditions last year.
Toms has really regressed this year to date over last year stats-
putting ave 2nd to 48th-GIR 10th to 46th-scoring ave 2nd to 66th--and had 6 top 20's and 2 top 5's last year by this time,in 2003 has 1 top 20 and 4 cuts in 7 events.Will try and climb on before odds dictate form.--and Mick---just a hunch but has not been too steller either.

Will be looking at the miss cut props but will have to be some good #'s despite only top 44 and ties for cut, consideration must be made for dead wood (beards via previous wins) and amatuers taking up 22 spots in a just a tad over 100 field.

 

[neverteaseit]

Don't wager on golf much but anytime you can get tiger at + money its worth the investment.

All to win

Woods 17/10 5 Units Pinnacle

Really long shots

Jose Maria Olazabal +20000 .5 Unit Olympic
Shigeki Maruyama +14000 .5 Unit Olympic
Sergio Garcia 65/1 1 Unit Pinnacle

GL TO ALL

 

[Stanley]

You don't have to worry DTB ... Zinger isn't playing

Moneyplays also have Calc and Parnevik listed in their matchups and they are also taking the week off

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Tom Lehman to beat Stuart Appleby -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Lehman has been more consistent this year - just one missed cut from seven PGA Tour starts against two from six for Appleby - but more importantly, has a far superior course history than the Australian. Six top-20 finishes in the last ten years compares very favourably against none from six, including four missed cuts.

Phil Mickelson to beat David Duval -200 @ Moneyplays
Wouldn't normally go as low as these odds, but opposing Duval has been like making money - he has made just one cut in six this year and it is unknown how much he has recovered from vertigo. Mickelson's 2nd lapse last week can be ignored - rustiness or Augusta on his mind - and he can boast top-10s finishes in the past four years here.

Nick Faldo to beat Paul Lawrie -118 @ Easybets
Good performance by Lawrie last week, but he has never made the cut in three attempts at Augusta. Faldo continues to impress in the big events and while he is far too short off the tee to contend this week, he will not embarrass himself. He also leads Lawrie 9-1-0 h2h in PGA Tour and WGC events over the past three years.

Nick Price to beat Nick Faldo -111 @ Ladbrokes
Had the course been dry I would have seriously considered Olympic's 30/1 for price to finish in the top-four, but he is too short off the tee for a wet Augusta. He is still in good form with a number of top-10 finishes this year and has a better record around this course since Faldo last won this title in 1996.

Jim Furyk to beat Mike Weir -118 @ Easybets
There are signs that Weir's early season form is tapering off, while that is not the case for Furyk with his top-5 finishes in his last three events. In the same stretch, Weir has finished 14th, 27th and then missed cut. Furyk also has a decisive edge in course form with last year's missed cut being the only time he has finished behind Weir. Can't see it happening this year.

Toshimitsu Izawa to beat Shingo Katayama -111 @ Paddy Power
Apart from a 4th place finish in the 2001 PGA Championship, Katayama has done little on American soil. He has finished behind Izawa on both occasions that they have played in this event and over the past three years he trails Izawa 1-7-0 h2h on PGA Tour and WGC events.

Lee Janzen to beat Ian Woosnam -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds [2 units]
Janzen showed good form last week before failing in the last round and while he has very little chance of a repeat finish this week, he should finish ahead of Woosnam as he has done in the past two seasons here. Woosnam is some way part his best outside the European Tour and so trails Janzen 6-1-0 h2h in PGA Tour and WGC events over the past three years.

Loren Roberts to beat Mark O'Meara -118 @ Easybets
Roberts has made all five cuts this year and finished 3rd in 2000. He won't be anywhere near repeating that feat, but against a player who has missed four of eight cuts this year and against whom he heads 8-1-1 h2h over the past year, he should be an easy winner.

Adam Scott to beat Justin Rose -125 @ Expekt
Scott is in slightly the better form - he leads Rose 3-1-0 in their last four events - and he does have course experience with his top-10 finish last year. Aces go -150 for Scott in this matchup, which would be more in line with my own odds.

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1 unit):

Phil Mickelson to beat Bob Estes -170 @ WSEX
Not pretty odds, but a very nice matchup. Estes is too short for the lengthened and sodden Augusta on view this week - he gives up over 30 yards per drive to Lefty whose record on this course is very impressive. Apart from their differences in form on this course - Estes has beaten Mickelson once in five common starts - Mickelson has dominated this matchup over the past twelve months with the head-to-head reading 11-1-2.

Nick Price to beat Scott Hoch -111 @ BetandWin
Hoch's wrist is still causing him pain and while the injured golfer should normally be avoided, it is also going to be cold, wet and unpleasant for the first two days. These are the conditions that Hoch hates and it will be no surprise to see him out of the event at the cut. Can't see the same happening to Price.

John Huston to beat John Rollins -145 @ WSEX
Three missed cuts and two top-10 finishes in his last five events sum up Rollins! Good for outrights, but opposable for matchups and particularly on a course he has never played until this week. Quite the opposite with Huston who has played in this event 12 times and made the cut on every occasion, finishing in the top-25 on nine occasions.

 

[sports student]

to add some balance to all the sharp players here, I offer a "square" 1st round parlay played at 5 dimes:

Rose -108 over Monty
Estes -130 over Hoch
Howell -175 over Duvall

pays 4.35-1. Monty is in bad form and going against him has been very good to me. Going against Hoch with his injury and against Duvall for his obvious bad form.
Good luck everyone.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding 72 holes
Monty -111 over Duval @ SIA
Playing another Euro as this weather should seem like home and not too hard to oppose Duval.
Faldo -125 over Lawrie @ SB
Ditto Stan and like it even @ -125
Lehman -111 over Hoch @ SIA
Gotta take one shot at Hoch.Prefer Stans choice of Price but no out there.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
1st rd - 1/2 stroke at WSEX
Harrington +120 over Weir
Would have cashed 3 out of 4 rds last year in similiar setting
Goosen -120 over Huston
No history on Huston in these elements last year but Goose was only player to shoot 3 rds in 60's last year.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
adding outright 1/2 unit E/W made back in January

Selection

Event Date Event Selection Odds E/W Terms Result

1 07/04/2003 2003 US Masters
(To Win Outright) R Goosen
+3300 5 places 1/4 odds To Run

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
also playing a little S&G 3ball Euro 3ball combo 1st rd that has weak sister in each pairing @ 365--
Playing----Jiminez-Monty-Harrington-Clarke

 

[Stanley]

Adding outright (1 unit):

Australia (Allenby/Scott) to win the 'Mini World Cup' 5/1 @ Stan James
I would place this team as favourites in this group as they are the only team who do not have at least player who will struggle to make the cut. Goosen and Mickelson should finish in the top-10, but it is difficult to see Clark and Mayfair playing at the weekend. The Aussie pairing are both long off the tee and in good form. Should get one if not both them of them in the top-20 which will be plenty enough for another Aussie World Cup win.

Adding matchup (1 unit):

Phil Mickelson to beat Mike Weir -130 @ Olympic and Moneyplays
Opposed Weir with Furyk as his current form seems to be tapering off and his course form is hardly comparable. Will do the same with Mickelson whose course form is even more impressive - he has beaten Weir on every occasion they have both played at Augusta. Five Dimes price this -145 which looks fairer for a wet week at Augusta.

Props (1 unit):

Players to miss the cut:

Rich Beem -125 @ Centrebet
Angel Cabrera +120 @ Victor Chandler
David Duval +110 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Sergio Garcia +160 @ Aces
Scott Hoch +110 @ Olympic
Miguel Angel Jimenez +120 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Colin Montgomerie +135 @ Five Dimes and Aces
David Toms +190 @ Carib
Ian Woosnam -138 @ Stan James

Vijay Singh to shoot over 71.5 in the 1st round -140 @ Five Dimes, Carib and Aces

 

[Stanley]

1st round plays (1 unit):

Kenny Perry to beat Stuart Appleby -123 @ Five Dimes
Brad Faxon to beat Chad Campbell -120 @ Five Dimes and Moneyplays
Peter Lonard to beat Chad Campbell -108 @ Five Dimes
Chris DiMarco to beat Charles Howell -115 @ Five Dimes
Retief Goosen to beat David Toms -140 @ Moneyplays
Retief Goosen (+0.5) to beat Jim Furyk +110 @ Sirbet
Tom Lehman to beat Lee Janzen -130 @ Five Dimes
Phil Mickelson to beat Mike Weir -128 @ Five Dimes

 

[lostinamerica]

It is the Masters, but my typical April schedule means the last thing I will get to in the wee hours of Thursday morning will be giving my lists a final close inspection, checking some stats, reading and listening to the latest news and reports, and finally pulling the trigger on my last 5-10 or so selections, and hopefully contributing something worthwhile from my notes and my goofy brain. But for now . . .

ADDING (in no particular order and on the fly):

(A) Davis Love finishing position (Under 8.5)(+100) for 1* @ Olympic
Love's transformation to feared champion still has some proving to do, but there can be no doubting he has committed himself to doing all the right things in an effort to get there. While the peak he hit at The Players Championship just two weeks ago may be hard to repeat, a flat or poor performance by Love would shock me just as much as something poor from Woods (when judged in comparison, of course, based on his singular standards).

(B) Justin Rose(-105) over Colin Montgomerie (Tournament) for 1* @ Bet365
Of course a slightly better price came along on this one at Olympic.

(C) Fred Couples(+300) over Faxon/Montgomerie/Sluman/Lehman (Tournament) for 1* @ Bet365
Couples in his own words: "Something?s clicked in my swing where at least I feel like I?m doing what I need to be doing and I?m hitting the ball well . . . I think I have enough game to go out there. But, when you?re never there it?s never easy. But the way I?m hitting it, I need to overlook that and just play good golf and keep hitting it solid.? What strikes me just as much is the "uncharacteristic" concentration, focus and thoughtful care he has been giving to every shot, and his resiliency after the bad shots and bad breaks (and not just when it's easy but every time out), that reflects a purpose and desire that has not been his calling card during his career.

(D) Charles Howell finishing position (Under 24.5)(-115) for 1* @ Olympic
I don't think the pairing of Howell/Scott/Rose that came out after my wager will be hurting my prospects with Charles this week.

(E) Craig Perks for Low 1st Round(100/1) for 0.20* @ 5dimes
I believe Mr. Perks took away a lot from his performance at Sawgrass, and I will jump immediately on a spot where he has real potential as a live dog. The height of my ambition is to hit a 100/1 shot - with no ties - on the first day!

(F) Darren Clarke as Top European(+450 and 1/4 for Top 3) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes

(G) Jim Furyk(33/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet 365
Dave Tindall @ bettingzone.co.uk said it very nicely: "Furyk's favourite Masters moment is the time he handed his putter to his mother during the par three tournament and she nailed a 10-footer, producing the loudest roar of the day. But the gritty grinder from Pennsylvania will want to get an ovation like that of his own. He is certainly capable of it . . . Furyk's forgivable missed cut last year came at a time when he was suffering dizzy spells. This year he seems to have everything under control and is playing his best golf in several years. In his last three starts he's finished second, after a play-off loss, at Doral, fifth in the Honda Classic and, most recently, an excellent tied fourth in the Players Championship . . . One big pointer to his chances at Augusta this year is his first place in the greens in regulation standings. Hitting accurate approach shots is crucial at Augusta and, contrary to perceived wisdom, past evidence says it's the best iron players rather than the best putters that flourish. In four of the last six years, the winner has hit the most greens. Only once in that time has the winner taken the fewest putts. However, it's still reassuring to know that Furyk can putt these greens as well. In a list of best putting performances (in terms of fewest putts) over the last six Masters, Furyk's name appears three times! . . . The one doubt could be his length off the tee. However, he's hitting it further than he ever has in 2003."

GL

 

[hoss]

Stan, I too was drawn to the 'Mini World Cup' market at Stan James by the Mickleson/Mayfair pairing being fav ( + Garcia/Olazabal being 8/1 ) - I had the Aussies down as I fancy, but I've had 1pt e/w on the English pairing of Faldo and Rose at 9/1 - Faldo's record round here is well known + I have a good feeling for Rose this week + as LIA says he's got a good draw with Scott + Howell. (just fancy - those 3 young guns coming out of the bag together )

one other play for now 1pt e/w Clarke top Euro @ 6/1

hoss

 

[Stanley]

Yes, the English pairing looked good, but I don't see both of them finishing in the top-20. Maybe Rose, but Faldo is too short off the tee to be a contender for me. Mid-table finish at best in my opinion and that could very easily be bettered by Allenby.

Have noticed that Five Dimes have now put up this market in their futures section with the same odds & teams

 

[hoss]

Yes, odd that - speaking of which why have Stan James got Tim Clark (missed cut by a mile in '98) and Len Mattiace (can't find when he played, but he's not in anyone elses list) in their Top Rookie market :shrug:

PS how shoddy is that book mentioned earlier that had priced up non-entrants :nono:

 

[Stanley]

They've not only priced up non-entrants but included them in their 1st round matchups

Shoddy, yes, but it does mean they're a little weak in the golf oddsmaking department

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

a local around town here is offering Mick -195 versus Duaval?

Thoughts from the experts would be appreciated, as I don't see Duval making the cut...


Thanks and keep up the good work guys!

 

[Stanley]

I'm already on it at -200 - see above

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

Thanks Stanley, I don't know how I missed your post?

How many units would you recommend? the juice is quite high but I just can't see Duaval coming in a higher rank than Mick, I am very tempted to lay $1000.00 to won $500.00


Thanks again friend...

 

[Stanley]

I would normally hit this one to the max (3 units), but it at -200 it is right on the limit of how low I will go and I do have a lot of other commitments on this event as well

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

WOW STAN A full plate:lol:

I had 10 players hawked on miss cut props and excluding Cabrera you got 8 of the 10 listed.
Will probably pass this year on em solely for lack luster performance on them years prior in Masters,but will have to play a few parlays on some and think Toms is best bang for buck at +190.

 

[Stanley]

:lol:

I just cap this event the same as I cap any other, but there are so many options available this week

It's no surprise this is the most-wagered upon event in golf!

I wanted to parlay some 'make the cut' props (Kelly & Price @ Oly) for example, but couldn't

Just hope the unfavourable weather stretches out the field and the 10-shot rule doesn't kill my plays.