The Open -- Carnoustie

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Do Britons love golf? Bet on it
Wagering on Open remains as popular as, well, breathing
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By Chuck Culpepper
Tribune news service

July 17, 2007

EDINBURGH, Scotland -- While Americans tend to bet on golf while playing it with friends or neighbors or that egotistical cheater from the legal department at work, golf-minded Britons tend to bet on golf while, well, breathing.

They bet on their Open so reflexively and so enthusiastically that some of them this very week will wager not only on the winner or whether there'll be a hole-in-one up the coast at Carnoustie, but on the prospective daily color of Ian Poulter's outfits.

"I'm guessing Mr. Poulter's clothing will probably be looked at" as a betting concept, said Robin Hutchison of the wagering chain Ladbrokes.

Thereby does Mr. Poulter's notorious fashion iridescence come to epitomize a national pastime of betting not as a way to make money but as a way to watch an event with an added dose of zeal.

The guy who just came into a Ladbrokes on Tuesday morning and bet $14,000 on Ernie Els probably wants to make some money, but most people just want to lord a successful bet over others in the pub.

It's "my assessment of the situation versus your assessment of the situation," said Mark Griffiths, a professor of gambling studies at Nottingham Trent University.

"I think the vast majority of people who have a bet in England fully expect to have lost that money," said Rupert Adams of the William Hill betting agency. "The assumption is that it's gone already, the money."

That's certainly the assumption of the people who have combined for a grand national total of 31 pounds (about $63) through Ladbrokes on 63-year-old Tony Jacklin at 10,000-1, and it's certainly the assumption of Sheena Willoughby, who with husband Jack runs the Dunvegan Hotel pub at St. Andrews.

Absolutely everybody in the pub has put some pounds down on somebody, and absolutely everybody includes Willoughby. She has two separate bets of 12.50 pounds (about $26) at 25-1 on Jim Furyk (a former customer she considers a decent soul), 20 pounds (about $41) at 100-1 on Charles Howell III and 20 pounds at 200-1 on 48-year-old Tom Lehman (former guest at the hotel).

It's sentiment laced with knowledge, it's legion this time of year, it results in mass romantic bets on the Englishman Colin Montgomerie, and it's part of the reason the British Open reigns as "the biggest sporting event of the summer," Hutchison said.

He estimates Ladbrokes will take in 5 million pounds (about $10 million) this week, and that because Ladbrokes usually gobbles up 20 percent of the market, he can reckon that a national take of "25 million to 30 million pounds for four days of golf isn't bad."

It trumps Wimbledon by about 20 percent, ranks alongside the Grand National steeplechase race of springtime and lures roughly as many wagerers -- if not the money -- of the FA Cup soccer final each May, Adams said.

It also illustrates how gambling has made the trek from "from sin to vice to socially accepted leisure activity," Griffiths said.

Griffiths, who specializes in the psychology of gambling, has spent 20 years studying addictions while maintaining that they remain rare in British society. "You have to realize that gambling for most people is natural, normal and causes little or no problems," he said.

With the British Open and other golf events, it even has a vivid parallel history.

Ladbrokes still reels from having decided that Tiger Woods wouldn't win the 2006 Open at Royal Liverpool, offering him at 6-1 early on. "The thinking was he didn't like links golf," Hutchison said, and that thinking cost about 5 million pounds ($10 million).

It also lost a significantly smaller amount on whether Woods would shake hands with Nick Faldo on the first day as they played in the same group.

Woods did, and naysayers lost.

Unlikely winner Todd Hamilton started the 2004 event at 500-1, said Adams of William Hill, while equally unlikely winner Ben Curtis began 2003 at 300-1, but only because, Adams recalled, "There was a very small article in a newspaper about Ben Curtis by somebody, just talking about how he was coming over from a small town in the States and how it was his first Open."

Had Woods won the 2007 Masters, Adams said, William Hill would have lost 500,000 pounds (about $1 million), rather than the 1 million pounds ($2 million) it gained when Zach Johnson edged the runner-up Woods. And on the morning of the final round of the 1996 Masters, Britons ignored Faldo at 50-1 as he trailed 66-1 shot Greg Norman by six strokes before prevailing and hugging Norman in profound sympathy.

In the hundreds of agency histories lie thousands of personal histories, and so Willoughby can tell of having Thomas Bjorn at 100-1 in the 2003 Open. Bjorn led by two shots with three holes left, and just before he took three shots to escape a bunker by No. 16, ushering Curtis to the fore, Willoughby said, "I was in the bar, practically buying everyone a drink."

She spoke for a nation.
 

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Richard Sterne will make the cut -180

Probably the hottest golfer on the planet besides fasth and furyk. He has shot a couple low rounds before at carnousite. I think he has a chance this week. But remember I struggle with these damn euros :mj07:
 

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It pays to read the Rotoworld player news before setting your lineups. If you did, you know the airline lost the clubs of several big names this week, including Leonard, Carl Pettersson, Lucas Glover, Pat Perez and Zach Johnson. Obviously, I'll have my eyes on that story and if Leonard's clubs never appear, I'll have some wholesale changes to make to my team. And even if the clubs arrive in time for Thursday's start, the lost practice time will certainly have some effect on the players, not to mention the stress associated with not knowing where they are.


Emailed a buddy who is on the course and rumor has it that all of the clubs have been returned
 
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xodale

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Do Britons love golf? Bet on it
Wagering on Open remains as popular as, well, breathing
Advertisement
It's sentiment laced with knowledge, it's legion this time of year, it results in mass romantic bets on the Englishman Colin Montgomerie, and it's part of the reason the British Open reigns as "the biggest sporting event of the summer," Hutchison said.

He estimates Ladbrokes will take in 5 million pounds (about $10 million) this week, and that because Ladbrokes usually gobbles up 20 percent of the market, he can reckon that a national take of "25 million to 30 million pounds for four days of golf isn't bad."

She spoke for a nation.


ENGLISHMAN Monty! Not sure how reliable the advice of that bookie is!!
 

Another Steve

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The Bookies' Dark Horse
At least one group believes the Irishman can claim his first major title this week

By Eamon Lynch
Managing Editor (Travel/Lifestyle), GOLF Magazine
Published: July 17, 2007


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CARNOUSTIE, Scotland ? There are few more savvy observers of golf's formbook than British bookmakers, and the odds offered this week have surprised at least one of their favorites: Padraig Harrington. According to the bookies, Harrington is the fourth favorite to win behind only Tiger Woods, Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson. He is also the only one of the four without multiple majors on his resume. In fact, at 35, the Irishman is still searching for his maiden title.

"I am surprised," Harrington said of the odds. "It's nice to be considered in that position. It doesn't help me win the golf tournament. It doesn't give me an extra-shot start on the first tee. If you turned around and told me I was 100-to-1 this week, I wouldn't be trying any less."

There are two probable reasons that the odds makers favor Harrington: his record at Carnoustie and his pre-Open preparation. The world No. 10 has twice won the European Tour's Dunhill Links championship, which is contested over three courses, including Carnoustie. And while Els and Mickelson battled over a parkland course in the Scottish Open at Loch Lomond, Harrington opted to play in the low-profile Irish PGA Championship at the European Club near Dublin. The European Club is a tight, difficult links course similar to what the players will face this week. He won the title in a playoff against his friend Damian McGrane, having birdied the final hole of regulation to tie.

Harrington predicted that Carnoustie will play much easier this year than the famously tough test of 1999.

"Carnoustie hadn't held an Open for a long time, and they weren't sure how the golf course would hold up," he said. "They obviously went and erred on the side of 'Let's make it as tough as Carnoustie is meant to be.' This time around they have the experience of '99 and they realize now they have a very strong golf course that doesn't really need anything extra put in it. I prefer to go to a tougher golf course and for them to use fair pin positions rather than go to an easy golf course where the pin positions get extreme. So if the course plays too easy we'll find more tough pins. If the course plays good and tough, we'll find fair pins."

As Europe's top ranked player through much of the continent's eight-year drought in the majors, Harrington also laughed off a suggestion by former champion Nick Faldo that the current crop of European stars haven't won a major because they're too nice.

"I don't believe any of the players can't win a major just because they're nice guys," he said. "Surely that doesn't stop you from winning a major. That couldn't be it. Nice guys do win."
 

Another Steve

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Benbrook
Open quotes of the day
By Matt Slater and Rob Hodgetts
BBC Sport at Carnoustie

First it was getting engaged, then it was getting married and now having a child. It's always something."
Tiger Woods chuckles at the straw-clutchers trying to spot a chink in his armour.

"I don't spend much time hitting range balls. Probably at most three or four hours [a day]."
Tiger Woods shows why he's not like the rest of us.

"The more time I spend on the range, the less competitive I get."
Padraig Harrington insists game time is the key. Range rats take note. But bear in mind what Woods said above.

"Enjoyment in a major? You enjoy a major afterwards. From Thursday to Sunday it's hard work."
Ernie Els is presumably aware that working in a mine, say, is "hard work". Playing a game for bundles of cash and a nice cup, well???

"The bookies are being a bit clever on that. There's a lot of home [factor]. They know they can pull the odds down a bit and people will still put money on me. It's nice, but it doesn't help me to win a golf tournament."
Padraig Harrington is surprised at being ranked fourth favourite, but reveals a good working knowledge of bookmakers' practices.

"If someone gives me a plane like those two, I can foresee that."
Zach Johnson shows that becoming the Masters champion has not affected his grip on reality as he is asked whether he would consider "popping" over to play the Open venue for a few days earlier in the year, like Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson do.


"My caddie is a nightmare because the last song he hears on the radio driving to the course, he sings all day and it gets into my head."
Justin Rose explains that any gentle swaying from him on the course is not necessarily a function of the wind.

"Golf is like riding a bike. You may not ride it very straight or very smooth, but you know how to ride it. When you figure it out, it usually straightens up."
Todd Hamilton, 2004 Open champion, laments the fact that since his glorious triumph over Ernie Els in a play-off at Royal Troon, his bike has needed stabilisers.

"I don't mind playing with my friends and shooting 75 or 76. You lose $5 or $10. But shoot that over here [at the Open], it's pretty tough."
Todd Hamilton reveals the full monetary extent of his current slump in form.

"I am sure there are many nice guys that have won majors. You don't have to be....nice guys do win."
You don't have to be what, Padraig Harrington? You don't have to be like Nick Faldo? Is that it?

"I have probably got more attention for being ranked two in the world than I did for winning the US Open. It's mind-boggling to me."
It's mind-boggling to us, Jim Furyk, that you were ranked two in the world for so long. But you're right, being Tiger's runner-up is no way to make a living.

"I would imagine that every little boy wants to be Tiger Woods, and mine are no different."
Former Open champion Paul Lawrie admits there will be split loyalties in his camp when he tees off with the world number number one on Thursday and Friday.
 

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First Round 3 Ball Matchup
(Zach Johnson +165) over Grame and Jose Maria Ola
(Grame Mcdowell +155) over Zach and Jose Maria Ola

Basically if Jose WD's pre tourney then the play is null. If Zach wins the group, then I push.. since i am risking to win what i am betting on grame
i.e.
Zach +165 54 to win 90
Graeme +155 90 to win 139.5

If Graeme wins the matchup then i win 50 bucks.
If Jose comes out and beats both of them.. then i lose a lot of money :mj07:
Was hopin he gave it a shot then wd mid tourney..
CARNOUSTIE, Scotland -- Two-time Masters champion Jose Maria Olazabal withdrew from the British Open on Tuesday.

The 41-year-old Spaniard dropped out with an injury, but the specifics of his problem were not immediately available.

Olazabal was replaced by American Tom Pernice Jr., who was already traveling to Scotland as the next alternate on the list. Another U.S. golfer, Lucas Glover, was added to the field Monday when Japan's Shingo Katayama withdrew because of back and knee injuries.

Olazabal won The Masters in 1994 and '99. He has twice finished third in the British Open, including two years ago at St. Andrews.:shrug: I had so many other plays lined up on this one.. kind of a bummer. Sorry phar.lap
 

Another Steve

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Benbrook
By Christian Peterson
Senior Editor

July 17, 2007

The old Saturday Night Live skit featuring Mike Myers famously claimed that "if it's not Scottish, it's crap!" While that might be putting it a tad strongly, many of the pros who teed it up at Carnoustie for the 1999 edition of the Open Championship would have agreed that, despite the links' distinctly Scottish characteristics, it was, in fact, crap. Certainly Jean Van de Velde would agree, but he won't be around to re-live his nightmarish 18th hole debacle this time around. The prevailing opinion is that Carnoustie won't be nearly as craptastic this time around, so perhaps the golfers themselves will actually be the focus of attention, rather than the golf course. In any case, Tiger Woods is the overwhelming favorite to take his third straight British Open title, but plenty of well-armed players from throughout the world will be on hand to give him a run for his money.



The Favorites
As usual, Woods is the prohibitive favorite. There may be some concern about the state of his game given that he's spent most of the last few weeks changing diapers and playing peek-a-boo with his new daughter, but it's safe to say he'll be well-prepared this week, as he was when he tied for seventh at Carnoustie in 1999. Jim Furyk went on an ugly run of five consecutive missed cuts at the Open Championship between 2001 and 2005, but he got back on the horse with a fourth-place finish last year. He also tied for 10th in 1999 and has dropped out of the top five just once in his last five PGA TOUR events. So put him a notch above both Phil Mickelson and Ernie Els on your list of favorites. Mickelson is gaining steam based on his stellar showing at the Scottish Open a week ago, but his failure to finish the job at Loch Lomond, his still-painful wrist injury, an the fact that he has just one top 10 in 14 career British Opens are all significant question marks. As for Els, he still hasn't returned to his pre-surgery form nearly two full years after suffering a knee injury, but his record at the British is unparalleled. He finished third a week ago in Scotland and has finished third or better in five of the last seven Open Championships, though all he could manage in 1999 was a T24.


The Best of the Rest
Padraig Harrington has been installed by some wishfully-thinking London bookmakers as the fourth favourite? err favorite this week. Apparently, they've overlooked all of the factors outlined in the "Who's Not" section below. Retief Goosen has played poorly enough this year to slip all the way to No. 11 in the Official World Golf Rankings, but like Els he has an impeccable British Open resume. The fact that he hasn't registered so much as a top 10 in eight events since tying for second at the Masters is a tough pill to swallow, but it's also tough to overlook the fact that he's finished worse than T14 just once since tying for 10th at the 1999 Carnoustie edition. Vijay Singh may or may not still be battling several different nagging injuries, which casts his prognosis in doubt this week as well. He missed the cut in 1999, but he also has two top-five finishes in the last five British Opens. Adam Scott tends to get lost in the shuffle come major time, but a T8 at Royal Liverpool a year ago indicates he may have found the recipe for success at the Open Championship. More than a few other European young guns will garner attention this week as well. At the top of the list is Sergio Garcia, who represents a missed bag as indicated by his inclusion in both the "Who's Not" and "The Good" sections below. Contrarily, there shouldn't be as much confusion about Henrik Stenson, Luke Donald, or Paul Casey. Stenson has yet to prove he can contend in majors, while Donald and Casey have both been shockingly pedestrian at their own National Championship.


Who's Hot?
Gregory Havret: The unheralded Frenchman just defeated Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els, and Luke Donald at the Scottish Open, but he also tied for third the week before and hasn't finished worse than T15 on the Euro Tour since June.

Hunter Mahan: Dating back to May, Mahan hasn't finished worse than T17 in four PGA TOUR events. He has two straight top 10s and has made the cut in each of his two British Open appearances.


Who's Not?
Sergio Garcia: El Nino hasn't done much of anything since his runner-up finish at the Players Championship. In five subsequent events, he hasn't finished better than T19. He's also missed the cut in both majors so far this season.

Padraig Harrington: Since winning the Irish Open in late May, Paddy has gone into a tailspin. He's finished inside the top 50 just once in his last five tournaments, and even that lone outlier was a middling T24 at the BMW on the European Tour in May. He's also missed the cut in each of the last two British Opens.


Player Trends
It's not a fool-proof indicator of future success, but golfers who fare well at a particular venue tend to do so time and again. With that in mind, we provide a list of players who have notable trends at this week's event (most recent results are listed first).

The Good
Nick Faldo (13 top 10s in 31 appearances, including two in the last four years)
Davis Love III (5 top 10s in an 8-year span before missing the cut each of the last two years)
Sergio Garcia (T5, T5, Cut, T10, T8, T9 in the last six years)
Mark Hensby (T22, T15 in his only two appearances)
Sean O'Hair (T14, T15 in his only two appearances)

The Bad
David Toms (WD, T30, Cut, 83, Cut, T4)
Paul Casey (71, Cut, T20, Cut, Cut)
Luke Donald (T35, T52, Cut, Cut, Cut, Cut, Cut)
Aaron Baddeley (Cut, Cut, Cut)
Zach Johnson (Cut, Cut, Cut)

The Ugly
David Howell (Cut, Cut, Cut, Cut, Cut, T45, T44, Cut)


Weekly Rankings
1. Tiger Woods
2. Jim Furyk
3. Phil Mickelson
4. Ernie Els
5. Angel Cabrera
 

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Graeme Mcdowell -125 over Aaron Baddely (72)
Geoff Ogilvy -110 over Paul Casey (72)
Ernie Els -125 over Phil Mickelson
Scott Verplank -145 over Zach Johnson (72)


Richard Sterne will make the cut -180
Colin Montgomerie will make the cut -205
Angel Cabrera will make the cut -230


Thats all
 
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abc

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One of yall jokers bust up that Sterne line ( at the greek) for me. I hit for 4.5 units and now im not so confident. I was hopin the line would a little so i could hedge a portion of the bet.
 

ridle

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Germany
1-5:
Tanihara 1-5 151 SportsTAB
Taniguchi 1-5 151 SportsTAB
Karlsson 1-5 41 Paddy Power win only

Green R 1-5 41 SportingbetAU win only

1-10:
Lee S-H 1-10 81 Bet365 win only
Pilkadiris 1-10 75 BetFair win only
Bickerton 1-10 51 Boylesports win only
Levin 1-10 61 Bet365 win only
Higgins 1-10 81 Bet365 win only
Drummond S 1-10 101 Paddy Power win only
Bevan 1-10 201 Bet365 win only
Fisher R 1-10 34 SportsTAB win only
Frost 1-10 26 SportsTAB win only
Taniguchi 1-10 61 SportsTAB win only
Tanihara 1-10 61 SportsTAB win only

TOP PAST CHAMPION:
Daly TOP PC 100 Unibet win only
Leonard TOP PC 65 Unibet win only
Lawrie Paul TOP PC 80 Unibet win only
Lehman TOP PC 80 Unibet win only

TOP USA:
Beem TOP USA 201 Betdirect 1/5 1-4
Mahan TOP USA 81 Betdirect 1/5 1-4
Putnam TOP USA 201 Betdirect 1/5 1-4

MATCHES:
Frost-Roberts 1.88 Unibet 1
O'Hair-Pettersson 1.9 Expekt 1
Storm-Stadler-Higgins 2.09 5Dimes 1
Romero-Micheel-Lyle 2.08 5Dimes 1
Hanson-Wetterich-Zions 2.01 5Dimes 1

ROUND 1 LEADER:
R1: Waldorf 301 Boylesports 1/4 1-5
R1: Higgins 401 Bet365 1/4 1-5
R1: Lehman 176 Bet365 1/4 1-5
R1: Zions 401 Bet365 1/4 1-5
R1: Pilkadaris 401 Paddy Power 1/4 1-5
R1: Hensby 251 Bet365 1/4 1-5
R1: Drummond S 501 Paddy Power 1/4 1-5
R1: Pettersson 101 Betfred 1/4 1-5


ROUND 1 3 BALLS:
R1: Karlsson-Glover-Els 4.5 BetFair 1
R1: Seung-Ho Lee-Laycock-Hultman 2.9 WillHill 1
R1: Tanihara-Scott-Love 6 Victor Chandler 1
R1: Drummond S-Pampling-Stricker 7.2 BetFair 1

TOP EUROPEAN:
Bjorn TOP EU 34 Sportingbet 1/4 1-4
Karlsson TOP EU 81 Sportingbet 1/4 1-4
Hanson TOP EU 81 Sportingbet 1/4 1-4

Edberg P TOP EU 101 Sportingbet 1/4 1-4

LOWEST TOURNAMENT ROUND:
Beem LTR 601 SportingbetAU win only
Bickerton LTR 751 SportingbetAU win only
Broadhurst LTR 301 SportingbetAU win only
Clarke LTR 111 SportingbetAU win only
Davis LTR 201 SportingbetAU win only
Drummond S LTR 1251 SportingbetAU win only

Green R LTR 201 SportingbetAU win only
Hansen A LTR 201 SportingbetAU win only
Pilkadaris LTR 1001 SportingbetAU win only

TOP REST OF THE WORLD W/O AUSTRALIA:
Tanihara TOP ROW-A 151 Betfred 1/5
1-4
Lee D-H TOP ROW-A 251 Betfred 1/5 1-4
Lee S-H TOP ROW-A 251 Betfred 1/5 1-4
Muto TOP ROW-A 401 Betfred 1/5 1-4
 
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joz

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is TNT's coverage gonna be tape delayed or live? I see its from 7am est to 7pm est, so im guessing tape delayed?
 

abc

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Thats great and all.. But I think he has one top 10 in his history at The Open. His driver completely fell apart on the back 9 under pressure last week. So that tells me he isnt fully confident yet with his swing. He comes from arizona where it is sunny and dry with no wind. The worst the conditions get the harder it will be for him in my opinion. He also flights the ball too high. Either way Good Luck
 

abc

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Ridle who do you like as top amateur? Obviously Ramsey has a lot of advantages and i see decent value at 2.5/1 :shrug:
 

abc

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Bradley Dredge feels this week's Open at Carnoustie represents his best chance so far of winning a major title.

"This is one of my favourite links courses so I'm really looking forward to this week," said the Welshman, 34.

"It's not going to be too bouncy either, it'll be relatively soft. The course is set up quite nicely. I think I've got as good a chance as anyone."

Dredge has been paired with former Open champion John Daly and Robert Allenby for the first two rounds.

"I've played with John Daly before in Germany," added Dredge. "He's a nice guy and a great player. Hopefully we'll have a good time.

"I don't really know Robert Allenby very well, but he's also a very good player. It should be good fun."

Dredge, who reached the British Amateur Championship final on his first visit to Carnoustie in 1992, booked his place in the Open field after finishing 10th at the French Open earlier this month.
 

abc

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Top 10 semi long shots..
Weir +750
Bjorn +833
Dredge +1042
Fasth +350

3 ball
Luke Donald -175 over Charlie 3 sticks and Mathews
 
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IX_Bender

Registered User
Forum Member
Donald is the big chalk in 3ball tomorrow. While hes up against less than good competition, anything can happen in one round of golf. Certainly anything enough to make MINUS 175 seem uncomfortable. Not saying the line is wrong, but its not to my liking.


My first play of the British Open:

Mahan -105 3ball over Groom/Hed


Debating going to bed soon to get up at 2 a.m EST for the start of the tournament.
 
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