The Players Championship

[Stanley]

Course: TPC at Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Yardage: 7093
Par: 72 (four par-fives)
USGA Rating: 73.3
Greens: Tifdwarf Bermudagrass - 4,500 sq.ft (Tour average: 6,000 sq.ft)

GCSAA Tournament Fact Sheet

Weather Forecast

Best Players Last 10 Years

Past Winners:
2001 - Tiger Woods
2000 - Hal Sutton
1999 - David Duval
1998 - Justin Leonard
1997 - Steve Elkington
1996 - Fred Couples
1995 - Lee Janzen
1994 - Greg Norman
1993 - Nick Price
1992 - Davis Love

 

[Monarch]

Of all the stats I look at during my analysis of the Players Championship the most crucial I feel are the ball-striking stats at pgatour.com. There is such a history of those high in that category consistenly doing well in this event. With such a premium on finding the fairway and GIR, these stats should prove a great guideline.

 

[bettingmad]

Bet247.co.uk place odds are 1/4 1-2-3-4-5 AND 6, though the prices are not over generous... but worth checking your man... whoever he may be!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

There are several long ones I deem that warrent a look.365 opened Mattice and Mediate @ 80/1 which I thought generous.Will be looking for place odds on several I played last week as greens should be similiar but conditions in general much tougher.Will be looking to see what they offer on Hoch and Zinger and Janzen again,will drop Oly with premium on accurracy,add add Cabrera and Furyk to possibilities depending on odds.
Got a couple with superb course form I am looking to oppose given correct matchups and odds that I think have had definate focus probs of late and they are Lehman and Sutton.Will lay off Duval this week playing in his back yard.Am still sympathetic watching him take the 9 last week.He hits great 2nd shot to par 5 only to catch slope and roll off green into water,takes drop hits next shot square into the pin bout foot up from the cup,shoots off the pin into the water.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
interesting article on last week,however writer is incorrect on Duvals 2nd shot,it hit the pin as noted above.
http://orlandosentinel.com/sports/golf/orl-sptbaynotes18031802mar18.story

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

couple early 72 holes @ Wsex
Hoch +115 over Goosen
Price -105 over Howell

Hoch,the Rodney Dangerfield of golf,last 5 here 2,5,6,13 and 7th.
Goosen Cut-Cut-Cut. I'll bite

Price past his prime but course savvy should serve him well. Last 4 here 8-3-3-10.I am a big fan of Howell but he is in for treat in his new venture here,and spit the bit last week on similiar but not as tough. Appears firm greens not to his liking.

 

[Clive]

DTB
Was also interested in Mediate, but poor putting stats put me off. Don't know if Heathorns will let you guys in, but Mattiace is 100/1 there.

Players that I would normally oppose are becoming backable...Love 50/1, Monty 100/1...didn't think I'd see prices like that this year.

First selection for me this week has to be Nick Price, the 66 with Hills is by far the biggest of the UK books to have priced up, and he is bound to be well touted this week. Should give us a decent run for our money and I expect him to shorten in the market.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Agree 100% on Price Clive.If I can find place odds above 10 will give hime a look.Another is Verplank.
Agree also on Mediate putting.Wasn't his misses as much as his speed that was lacking last week.He said in interview that last week was 1st time he played without pain and really enjoyed himself.Thought I might ride him while his attitude is good.

 

[rio]

Price now down to 40's with Will Hill. Cannot knock his consistency of late around here. If only he could do it with the flatstick.

I've taken a little 80/1 with Ladbrokes about Kenny Perry. Have to agree with DTB that Verplank looks interesting; although I fully intend to add Toms at 40's or better as a second interest.

 

[BOBBYW]

DTB:

DON'T HANDICAPP GOLF BUT TRYING TO LEARN AS MUCH AS I CAN. QUESTION: IS ONE OF THE REASONS YOU WENT AGAINST HOWELL BECAUSE HE HAD A HORRENDOUS 4TH ROUND AND THAT WILL CARRY OVER TO THIS WEEK. AM I RIGHT? A YOUNGER PLAYER PROBABLY WILL TAKE LONGER TO SHAKE A BAD ROUND. JUST WONDERING....

 

[Monarch]

Thinking of a few nice prices at the moment. Sabbatini 80/1. Current No.1 in Scor Av. (69.04), stats have significantly improved from 2001: Ball Striking 109th to 43rd, Putting Ave 125th to 72nd, Scrabbling 150th to 30th. Might be worth a little on the ew. Can his terrible course form be offset with his new game?

Am liking Perry and Mediate also. Both show up pretty well in the important stats.

What would you all say the % chance of Woods not winning this week are? I'm thinking around 15.

 

[steved]

I am going for following e/w
Singh 28/1 Sportingodds..You do not need to putt to win here, but do need to get to small greens in reg, sounds like Vijay!
Janzen 80/1 Surrey..good early form, Major man, which you need to be to win here..
Hoch 66/1 Hills..excellent record here..maybe he can finish a decent tournament now he has won twice in a season!
All winners since 1990 have won a Major already or subsequently won one, so that should make picking easy, but it does not seem to be..Perhaps because I am not picking Tiger...

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Bobby There are a few reasons I am reluctant on Howell this week despite my really liking him as a player.It is tough place to come into 1st time and play.Being young it is tough to have the patients needed to play this course.Appears last week he was put off by not being able to fire at pins and have ball stick and in addition he was spending huge amounts of time on practice greens trying gimmicks to work out his putting,even went as far as to borrow putter from Sergio one rd. Tough to come in this tourney 2nd quessing,however that is just my opinion and one never knows. Have been waiting anxiously to see who WSEX put up on their miss the cut props this week.They have historically lined just big names at huge odds which might prove interesting especially if wind blows,but it has been calm yesterday and today is projected the same,however t-storms moving in Thursday which might bring in wind rest of week.Sorry.didn't mean to be so long winded.

 

[milpalm]

My picks this week:
Hoch (66/1), 9th last week and should be more suited here where accuracy is important.
Leonard (80/1), former winner here who has played well this year.
Toms (50/1), 12th last year, solid GIR & and driving accuracy stats and in decent form. 50/1 seems big.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will go with Mediate to place only 20/1 @ SIA now and wait for Oly to line their place wagers before committing to any others.

Have never seen so many with possibilities in the 80/1 range @ Sia.Could make a case for several @ those odds.

T Bjorn 80/1

C Montgomerie 80/1

C Beckman 80/1

L Westwood 80/1

M Calcavecchia 80/1

R Allenby 80/1

R Mediate 80/1

F Couples 80/1

C Parry 80/1

C Riley 80/1

J Sluman 80/1

 

[Monarch]

milpalm, where did you find Toms at 50/1? That looks like a great price.

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit unless stated):

David Duval to win 20/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler, Surrey or Blue Square
Duval may have finished back in 22nd last week, but was extremely unlucky to run up a 9 at the 16th hole. His game appears to be returning and playing in his home town on a hard, fast course, he should go close this week. A winner three years ago, 20/1 seems generous enough as I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Tiger will walk away with this title.

Scott Hoch to win 66/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds, BetInternet or Heathorns
Excellent course form in recent years with a worst finish of 13th in the last five. The new toughened course suits his game and if it is hard and fast this week, it will suit him even more. Encouraging top-10 finish last week.

Paul Azinger to win 80/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
Zinger is another who should benefit from a hard and difficult setup. He has had some high finishes on this course since it was tightened and has been playing some much better golf since finishing 4th in the World Matchplay. Taking the 80/1 on offer at Paddy Power rather than at Heathorns because of their offer to refund any losing outright bets if there is a hole-in-one at the 17th this week.

 

[milpalm]

Monarch, Gamebookers had Toms at 50/1 earlier, down to 25/1 now.

 

[Bonovox]

Bet365 has Goosen at 5/2 to miss the cut. Not bad odds for a guy who can't play this track.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding outrights @ Sportingbet e/w w/o Tiger 1 unit total each
Zinger 40/1
Furyk 40/1

Forced to abandon place only somewhat with this offer.Assuming Tigers finishes top 5 quite similiar to paying 1/4 6 places?

Been there and done that Bono.Also eyeing Dimarco 5/2
Love 9/4 and Calc 7/4 but will wait for others to see what WSEX offers before diving in.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

72 holes @ cascade

Els -120 over Garcia
While not Els favorite track he has been playing great and aside from last year has played decent here.Conversely Sergio's best finish in 2 tries 50th.

Singh -120 over Oly
Singh should be here for weekend,if Oly gets erratic with driver he won't be.

Weir +105 over Goosen
Strickly go against Goosen who hasn't made cut here in 3 attemps with rds of 79-77-76-76-71-78

Leonard -105 vs Parny
Justin usually pretty steady,Parny missed last 2 cuts here and was cut in his last event.