BEN BURNS
BIG EAST GOY
I'm taking the points with PITTSBURGH. I have a lot of respect for South Florida but I also believe that Pittsburgh is much better than most people think. Keep in mind that the Panthers entered the season with a top 25 ranking and were being hailed as one of Pittsburgh's best teams in several years. Many bettors are very down on the Panthers, as they have gotten off to an 0-4 ATS start this season. However, a closer look shows that they're still 3-1 SU and that the lone loss came in their first game and was by only 10 points. Yes, that was a devastating loss in the opener but the Panthers have bounced back with three straight "character" wins. Looking back to last year and we find that the Panthers are 6-5 SU their last 11 games but that NONE of their five losses came by greater than 11 points. Given their tendency to avoid getting blown out, it's no surprise to find that they are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as underdogs of greater than eight points. The Bulls do come off an impressive beatdown of NC State, which has helped to keep tonight's line generously high. However, it should be noted that their three previous games were all decided by eight points or less. The Bulls beat a Sun Belt Conference team (Florida International) which was winless at the time, by only eight points. They were also taken to overtime by a Central Florida team which has been outscored by a 92-20 margin by Boston College and Utep in two games since that time. The Bulls' lone home game vs. a 1-A team (they did blowout 1-AA Tennessee Martin) resulted in a 3-point win over Kansas. These teams have met five times since 2001. South Florida has won three of those games, including each of the last two. However, none of the Bulls' three victories came by greater than 11 points. Conversely, Pittsburgh's two victories (2004 and 2005) both came by a minimum of 14 points. While the Panthers have now gone 0-5 ATS their last five September games, they typically tend to get going as the weather gets a bit cooler in October. In fact, they're 9-2 ATS their last 11 games played in October. While they didn't cover the spread last week at Syracuse, the Panthers can take some positives from the game. That's because they were trailing 24-16 in the fourth quarter. Faced with a fourth-and-inches at their 33, the usually conservative coach Dave Wannstedt elected to go for it. The gamble paid off and Pitt. never looked back, outscoring Syracuse by an 18-0 margin in the fourth quarter. It was the biggest deficit that the Panthers have ever overcome under Wannestedt and it gives them plenty of confidence, as does the fact that they were a healthy 11 of 18 on 3rd down. In fact, it should also be noted that the Panthers were also 4-for-4 on fourth down against Iowa the previous week, although all of those fourth down plays came while on the Hawkeyes' side of the 50. Either way, I believe that those are the type of things that build positive momentum and I expect the Panthers to carry that momentum into this evening's extremely important game. Note that the Panthers are 3-1 ATS the last four times they were coming off a victory over a conference opponent and is a profitable 27-15-2 ATS their last 44 in that situation. Look for them to build on those stats as they take this evening's game down to the wire with a solid shot at the upset. *Big East GOY
BEN BURNS
ANNIHILATOR
I'm laying the points with UTAH. I was on Oregon State in its victory over USC, so I do have a healthy respect for the Beavers. However, I expect the venue and the situation to prove too much for the still relatively young Beavers to handle. For starters, it's a natural letdown spot after recording one of the biggest upsets in team history. Additionally, the Beavers have already lost both their road games, most recently getting crushed 45-14 at Penn State. While they don't get nearly as much recognition as the Nittany Lions, the Utes are also a very strong team. They're already 5-0 including a victory at Michigan. Looking back to last season and we find that the Utes have won 13 of their last 14 games (including the win over Navy in the bowl game) with the lone loss coming at BYU. Last season, Utah began the year with a loss at Oregon State, suffering key injuries in the game. The Utes followed that up by losing their home opener vs. Air Force the following week. However, they have responded by winning seven straight games here with each of those victories coming by a minimum of 16 points. The Utes believe that they have the talent to go undefeated this season and get to a BCS Bowl game. They do still have tough games vs. TCU and BYU on tap but they get both those games at home. The win over Michigan was a big help to their case and they know that a convincing blowout win over the Pac-10 team that defeated #1 USC will also go a long way. The fact that the Beavers beat them last year and the fact that the Beavers beat USC last week will ensure that the Utes are fully focused on the task at hand. The Utes have been excellent as favorites of this size in recent seasons. In fact, they're a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times that they were listed as favorites in the -10.5 to -21 range. This is a chance to get revenge from last year and make a statement nationally. Look for them to respond with a convincing double-digit victory. *Annihilator
BIG EAST GOY
I'm taking the points with PITTSBURGH. I have a lot of respect for South Florida but I also believe that Pittsburgh is much better than most people think. Keep in mind that the Panthers entered the season with a top 25 ranking and were being hailed as one of Pittsburgh's best teams in several years. Many bettors are very down on the Panthers, as they have gotten off to an 0-4 ATS start this season. However, a closer look shows that they're still 3-1 SU and that the lone loss came in their first game and was by only 10 points. Yes, that was a devastating loss in the opener but the Panthers have bounced back with three straight "character" wins. Looking back to last year and we find that the Panthers are 6-5 SU their last 11 games but that NONE of their five losses came by greater than 11 points. Given their tendency to avoid getting blown out, it's no surprise to find that they are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as underdogs of greater than eight points. The Bulls do come off an impressive beatdown of NC State, which has helped to keep tonight's line generously high. However, it should be noted that their three previous games were all decided by eight points or less. The Bulls beat a Sun Belt Conference team (Florida International) which was winless at the time, by only eight points. They were also taken to overtime by a Central Florida team which has been outscored by a 92-20 margin by Boston College and Utep in two games since that time. The Bulls' lone home game vs. a 1-A team (they did blowout 1-AA Tennessee Martin) resulted in a 3-point win over Kansas. These teams have met five times since 2001. South Florida has won three of those games, including each of the last two. However, none of the Bulls' three victories came by greater than 11 points. Conversely, Pittsburgh's two victories (2004 and 2005) both came by a minimum of 14 points. While the Panthers have now gone 0-5 ATS their last five September games, they typically tend to get going as the weather gets a bit cooler in October. In fact, they're 9-2 ATS their last 11 games played in October. While they didn't cover the spread last week at Syracuse, the Panthers can take some positives from the game. That's because they were trailing 24-16 in the fourth quarter. Faced with a fourth-and-inches at their 33, the usually conservative coach Dave Wannstedt elected to go for it. The gamble paid off and Pitt. never looked back, outscoring Syracuse by an 18-0 margin in the fourth quarter. It was the biggest deficit that the Panthers have ever overcome under Wannestedt and it gives them plenty of confidence, as does the fact that they were a healthy 11 of 18 on 3rd down. In fact, it should also be noted that the Panthers were also 4-for-4 on fourth down against Iowa the previous week, although all of those fourth down plays came while on the Hawkeyes' side of the 50. Either way, I believe that those are the type of things that build positive momentum and I expect the Panthers to carry that momentum into this evening's extremely important game. Note that the Panthers are 3-1 ATS the last four times they were coming off a victory over a conference opponent and is a profitable 27-15-2 ATS their last 44 in that situation. Look for them to build on those stats as they take this evening's game down to the wire with a solid shot at the upset. *Big East GOY
BEN BURNS
ANNIHILATOR
I'm laying the points with UTAH. I was on Oregon State in its victory over USC, so I do have a healthy respect for the Beavers. However, I expect the venue and the situation to prove too much for the still relatively young Beavers to handle. For starters, it's a natural letdown spot after recording one of the biggest upsets in team history. Additionally, the Beavers have already lost both their road games, most recently getting crushed 45-14 at Penn State. While they don't get nearly as much recognition as the Nittany Lions, the Utes are also a very strong team. They're already 5-0 including a victory at Michigan. Looking back to last season and we find that the Utes have won 13 of their last 14 games (including the win over Navy in the bowl game) with the lone loss coming at BYU. Last season, Utah began the year with a loss at Oregon State, suffering key injuries in the game. The Utes followed that up by losing their home opener vs. Air Force the following week. However, they have responded by winning seven straight games here with each of those victories coming by a minimum of 16 points. The Utes believe that they have the talent to go undefeated this season and get to a BCS Bowl game. They do still have tough games vs. TCU and BYU on tap but they get both those games at home. The win over Michigan was a big help to their case and they know that a convincing blowout win over the Pac-10 team that defeated #1 USC will also go a long way. The fact that the Beavers beat them last year and the fact that the Beavers beat USC last week will ensure that the Utes are fully focused on the task at hand. The Utes have been excellent as favorites of this size in recent seasons. In fact, they're a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times that they were listed as favorites in the -10.5 to -21 range. This is a chance to get revenge from last year and make a statement nationally. Look for them to respond with a convincing double-digit victory. *Annihilator