U.S. Open

[Ice Picks]

Leaving Tuesday for Olympic Fields, and made a couple of outright bets I wont have access to the internet in Chicago...all of the following are "without favorite" [Tiger] or favourite, as you Brits would say...in the field...


1. Jeff Maggert +8000 - wow - he has always played well in the Opens...

2. Kenny Perry +2800 - he has done well this spring...and has the game to conquer this course...

3. David Toms +2500 - good value on a very excellent player

4. Nick Price...+3300 - has been playing extremely well


Forget about it...and don't waste your money...on Montie, Faldo, Mediate, Faxon, Garcia, Calcavechia, Beem, Duval...

Dont discount: Harrington [+1800], Goosen [+2200] and Jantzen - who is at +5000, a former winner, and seemingly on form...and Fred Funk, not the longest hitter, but hits a lot of fairways...and may be due to breakthrough...

This course should play a bit easier than Bethpage last year, though the par has been reduced to 70, and lengthened to almost 7200 yards...some of the "shorter" hitters will be a factor this week - like Furyk, Cink, Sluman, and Couples...who seems to have regained some interest...Chad Campbell [+4000] is a favorite of the local newspaper writer as a fashionable pick.

From what I was told by a golfer who was familiar with the course, the fairways are lined with lots of big trees, and driving will be at a premium, as the USGA always does...

As usual, there are in reality only 20 - 25 players who have a legitimate chance at winning this thing - and IMO Tiger should be at or near the lead throughout...

Longest of the long shots...what about Corey Pavin [+17500], a former winner at Shinnecock, where the Open returns next year...and has played a bit better recently...off to CHI-town...


Good luck to all....

IP

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Here is what i'm on so far.......

Kenny Perry 2 units 80-1 win only
David Duval .5 unit ew 100-1 1/4 1234

Good Luck

 

[rrc]

I live about 20 minutes from Olympia Fields....

I live about 20 minutes from Olympia Fields....

So I'll try to give weather updates along with any interesting tidbits from the Chicago Tribune and Chicago Sun-Times....

Weather should be perfect all week..72-80 degrees with no significant rain.

Billy Mayfair after practice round yesterday "It's different from last year where you had to hit it as far as you can. You have to work the ball around here.You're going to see guys who don't hit it very far play well.

Potential trouble spots are the deceptively sloped greens at 17 and 18. Mayfair commented "If you're not careful you can putt the ball right off the green."

Notes....

Furyk...tied for 5th in 1996 and 1997.
Leonard...never a top ten in Open
Hoch...5th last year
Toms...last 2 years 66th and 45th. Only one top 20.
Mickelson...2nd in 1999 and 2002. Been working on a cut off the tee.
Love...only one top 10 since 1996 :shrug:

Good luck to all.

 

[c20916]

Mayfair is right, I played the course in Oct last year and the greens were fast then, I can't imagine what they are now. Some of the undulations in the greens are ridicolus they can put the pins in some trickey places, especially on 9, which was 18 when I played it. If you get above the hole there forget about it, ball will run off the green if your not careful. There are alot of trees on the course, although there are some holes that are a little bit more wide open.

 

[milpalm]

I've placed some ante post bets as usual.

Singh 25/1. The course has 12 par 4s and Singh is No 1 for par 4 performance. Good US Open record & solid current form as well.

Harrington 50/1. Seems to be ready to mount a challenge. Should be well acclimatised after playing a few events in the States.

Leonard 80/1. Poor record in this event but his game should be suited. Deserves a chance at big odds.

 

[Toto]

Canbet has Woods +375 to win, a big change from the +140 at the Masters, has he fallen that far? Might be worth a look?

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Toto:

Not saying it's not worth a look, but those are Euro odds. ie, it's posted in decimal form. 3.75 (Euro) = +275 (standard American odds).

Still could be worth a look. Perception down on Microsoft stock = buy sign?

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

a couple of 72 holes @ 365 (ties lose) that I look for lines to move
quickly on.

Price -110 over Howell
Love -110 over Mick

Thanx for having stats up on Open this quickly Stan.:toast:

 

[lostinamerica]

The Open Rules, I've been known to say. I leave this morning for Chicago for my 6th championship (Medinah, Olympic, Medinah, Hazeltine, Olympic, Olympia Fields). Last year, two rounds of the PGA at Hazeltine confirmed what I suspected, that being focused on 10+ hour days at the golf course offers about the worst vantage point for identifying the plays with the best value from a large slate of offerings; I'll be getting most of my investments in early, and be selective thereafter. It's the stuff that dreams are made of.


OUTRIGHTS:

You can't bet on everyone (Singh or Perry would have been next, possibly followed by Immelman or Janzen), but I've built up a large stable of runners to carry my cash:

(1) Justin Leonard(50/1 for 0.60* e.w.)
Justin's game is exuding fine shape heading into this serious stretch of summer golf. As recently as Hazeltine, he remembers having had the lead in a major championship heading into the final round.

(2) Mike Weir(20/1 for 0.60* e.w.)
This is not a pick I anticipated making after The Masters, but he is nicely embracing his role and seems quite capable (poised would be too strong a term) of being as sharp as ever.

(3) Stewart Cink(66/1 for 0.60* e.w.)
He's had my backing more than once during the last six weeks or so, and The Open is the most obvious event for me to be giving a nod in this direction. His "ridiculous" performance in his sectional qualifier was not a big surprise.

(4) Jeff Sluman(80/1 and 100/1 for 0.60* e.w.)
A Hinsdale resident that just so happened to win in nearby Milwaukee last year. He recently told Nicklaus he is ready to row the boat to South Africa for a chance to play in the President's Cup, so I think he has been working hard in pursuit of his goals. His form is noteworthy on a course that suits.

(5) Davis Love(20/1 for 0.60* e.w.)
This bet was made in April for reasons that are still valid.

(6) Tiger Woods(+250 To Win for 1*)
This is my standard insurance policy, you know, going for just his third title in four years.

(7) Padraig Harrington(33/1 and 28/1 for 0.60* e.w.)
Very much like Jim Furyk at the Masters in that I have circled his name too many times to leave him on the sidelines.

(8) Nick Faldo(125/1 for 0.50* e.w.)
Nick and I both know what he should have claimed in Chicago in 1990. I'm happy to indulge myself.

I'll be scarce.

And I'll keep a candle burning, Phil.

GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding some props @ Oly all -115

Jun 10 6:03am Golf - Pending 30.00 to win 26.09
1. Golf - 2003 US Open June 12 - 15, 2003
Propositions
Lowest round shot by any golfer will be
Over 64? shots (-115) [pending]

Jun 10 6:05am Golf - Pending 30.00 to win 26.09
1. Golf - 2003 US Open June 12 - 15, 2003
Propositions
Will Phil Mickelson first round score be
Over 72 strokes (-115) [pending]

Jun 10 6:07am Golf - Pending 30.00 to win 26.09
1. Golf - 2003 US Open June 12 - 15, 2003
Propositions
No. of golfers to finish Under Par after 72 holes
Under 4? golfers (-115) [pending]

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

an early outright to place (top 6) at Skybet
Janzen 20/1

Will take a look at Janzen who defintely has mindset for open with previous wins,plus has won on this course in 98.Current form best its been in a while with last 3 being 2nd-18th-14th. A reported bad ankle is some concern.

Will go on record that I do not like Woods here basically on his sub par play on par 70's. Has played 7 Opens on par 70 and won once at Bethpage which I attribute to the length of that course.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
will also give Nick Price a look @ 12/1 (top 6) @ Skybet

 

[LARGE222]

played two matches on pinnacles numers last night both for one unit

harrington -33 over dimarco
and goosen -26 over leonard

love the way goosen drives the ball
and not so high on leonards ability in this stat

and harrington seems to hole all the putts and like his gritty demeanor .
dont think that dimarco has the patience that harrington does

good luck

 

[Couchpotato]

DTB - Janzen won at Olympic Club in SF in 98, Olympia Fields last hosted US Open in 1928. My outrights & ew this week are Furyk, Cink, and Sluman this week. Weather should be great for a change in the majors.

 

[royalfan]

Wow incredible value on Cink over dimarco at -105 at pinnacle.

 

[scrub]

carefull on janzen dont know if he is 100 percent healthy from getting hurt playing pingpong with his kids last week sore wrist and ribs

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

You are correct Mr Potato,I just returned from driving range where I lost $5 wager on that
Scrub He is also reported to have ankle injury.

adding 72 holes
Weir -122 over Mick @ 5 Dimes
Harrington -120 over Mick @ SIA
Furyk -125 over Mick @ Sportingbet
said I would fade Mick till he got driver in line.Hope this isn't the week. Would have bit on this @ Boyles if I could figure which player they ment Toms or Perry

12:30 Thursday, June 12, 2003 Single and Upwards

US Open - P Mickelson v K Perry Fixed Odds
Mickelson 5/6
Toms 1/1
xTie 14/1

1st rd @ Wsex
Harrington -120 over Howell -.5 stroke
Furyk -105 over Mick -.5 stroke
Janzen -105 over Perry +.5 stroke

 

[rrc]

Tuesday's weather...

Tuesday's weather...

Had a little rain on and off today. At yesterday's practice rounds the greens were really holding. Think the usga would like things to firm up for the week-end. The 5 day forecast looks real good.

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Vijay Singh to win 14/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BetInternet, UKBetting and Five Dimes
Twice a winner this season and has failed to finish outside the top-four in the past month (3 events). There can be no doubting his form and he is a worthy second favourite to Woods, particularly as he has three top-10s in the last four U.S. Opens. With this consistency, it is hard to see him not featuring this week and if the curse of the defending champion continues this year, he is a very strong candidate to edge closer to the career Grand Slam.

Padraig Harrington to finish in the top-four 8/1 @ Olympic
The Irishman is not a strong candidate to win, though he has certainly improved over the past two years in converting winning positions - it could hardly have moved the other way! But he is certainly consistent and a big tournament player. In last year's majors, he finished 5th, 8th, 5th and 17th. He also has a runners-up spot in the Players Championship and showed excellent form in the past month on both sides of the Atlantic. He didn't convert his chance to win on Monday, but at least he gets the opportunity more than most and this week should be the same.

Nick Price to finish in the top-five 16/1 @ Five Dimes
This is not his best Major, but he still has two top-10 finishes in the past five years and his form over the past year has been even more impressive. He hasn't won this year, but he has been a front-runner on several occasions and has finished in the top-five in two of his last three events. The dog-legs at Olympia Fields mean that his lack of length off the tee will not be a disadvantage this week and he is far better shot to finish in the top-five - as he did in the last Major in Illinois (1999 PGA Championship) - than Five Dimes give him credit.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Bob Estes to beat Adam Scott -125 @ BetInternet
There have been few glimpses of the form that netted Scott a 3rd place finish in the WGC Match Play Championship in February. He has made his last two cuts, but does not have the game to prosper in this event and could easily follow his only previous result in this event: a missed cut. Estes has been much more consistent and should at least make the weekend.

Fred Funk to beat Rich Beem -125 @ Victor Chandler
Funk is in far better form - 11th, 9th and 2nd in three of his last four starts - and should make the weekend on a course that does not penalise his lack of length off the tee. Beem is far too aggressive and impatient for this event and, like Scott, should make it 0-for-2 in U.S. Open cuts this week.

Fred Funk to beat Rory Sabbatini -110 @ Bet365
Sabbatini is another who should go 0-for-2 in U.S. Open cuts this week. Like Scott and Beem above, he is too aggressive and too wayward off the tee for this event. On top of winning in the previous week, it was done in a Monday finish and a letdown is fully expected this week as this event requires full concentration and extreme patience. Funk finished 2nd on Monday, but should easily reverse the tables on this course.

Nick Faldo to beat Rory Sabbatini -111 @ BetandWin
Faldo is still a big event player and a record of finishing 7th in 2000 and 5th last year show that he is still competitive in the Majors even if it is very unlikely that he will be able to convert his chances. In fourteen common PGA Tour events over the past three years, Sabbatini has finished ahead of Faldo just once and I can't see number two occurring on this type of course.

Niclas Fasth to beat Rory Sabbatini -111 @ Paddy Power and SIA
Fasth failed to win last week, but he will win on this Tour. The U.S. Open is not ideally suited to his game, but he is in very good form and should improve on his 37th place finish of last year. It should be more than enough to beat the erratic Sabbatini.

 

[LARGE222]

stanley agree with the against sabbatini thinking


added furyk -35 over toms for 1 unit
slept the early number on this


good luck