UFC 84: MAY 24th, Las Vegas...Picks and Analysis

[kickserv]

...


UFC 84: MAY 24th
MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada

Fight Card
-----------------------------
-B.J. Penn vs. Sean Sherk
-Keith Jardine vs. Wanderlei Silva
-Wilson Gouveia vs. Goran Reljic
-Lyoto Machida vs. Tito Ortiz
-Thiago Silva vs. Antonio Mendes
-Rousimar Palhares vs. Ivan Salaverry
-Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura
-Terry Etim vs. Rich Clementi
-Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs. Jon Koppenhaver
-Dong-hyun Kim vs. Jason Tan
-Shane Carwin vs. Christian Wellisch

 

[kickserv]

ok......well I have to get on this one now.....though I also like the underdogs Sherk and Jardine, I will wait on those odds to be better.

But I don't think the odds on Tito will be any better then they are now.....so I will start off the thread with the first selection: :SIB



MMA Record (since UFC 58)
---------------------------------------------

Prop Bet 14-5
Fighter vs. Fighter 58-50
Parlays 28-29

+86.43 Joe Rogans


Tito Ortiz beat Lyoto Machida $2.80 *2.5 Joe Rogans


I just don't see the odds staying this good, so on it now. A risk taking Tito this early because who really knows if he's training his ass off for this fight, but I am going to say he is. I think Tito will win his last fight in the UFC and after he wins he'll give Dana White a great big kiss:142smilie

 

[rawli007]

i, too, have made the executive decision to make a play on Tito Ortiz at +160.. i know i flip-flopped a bit in the other discussion, but am gonna take a shot.

Tito Ortiz +160 for 2 units
BJ Penn -220 for 3.5 units (thoughts in other thread)

i watched Tito vs. Rashad for a second time and Tito looked better than i remembered... i dont see him getting submitted and i'm banking on Tito leaving the UFC w/ a BANG and giving Lyoto his first loss. Tito will be the biggest/strongest light heavyweight Lyoto has ever faced and i feel like the edge is in his favor w/ these lines.

Dear Tito,

Please do not stand with Lyoto or u will lose badly. Ground and pound is your only hope and you should know this. I trust that u will accept this gameplan and not let me down.

Yours truly, Raw

 

[kickserv]

well raw......obviously I totally agree with ya on the Tito pick......of course I got +180 ($2.80) which shows how much smarter I am then you:mj07: :mj07:

ahhhhh just messin' with ya.


As for Penn......odds just way to good (and I think will get even better as the fight draws closer) to not go with Sherk. As stated I think 100 times...all Sherk has to do (tough task I do admit) is get it to the 4th round, then he has a shot. And at such big odds I just can't pass up Sherk:SIB And my opinion these are the top 2 lightweights in the world (I mean can you imagine Aoki on the bottom of Sherk for 5 rounds...LOL!). Sherk is a beast and Penn is somesort of mma guru, should be a great fight:SIB

Obviously if I had a gun to my head I'd pick Penn....but those Sherk odds are like a naked chick with a sign that says "have sex with me please" hard not to take a shot:mj07:


also.......I love the Jardine play.....I mean ya talk about a live dog....look up "live dog" in the gambling dictionary and you'll see a pick of Jardine:142smilie

 

[rawli007]

i certainly dont blame anyone for taking a shot at the odds on Sherk... however, i feel like Sherk is in for a rude awakening. BJ will come in like a hurricane, just like his last two fights, and if Sherk can survive hurricane BJ then he has a chance.

check out bjpenn.com for some training footage, etc. the man is on a mission. if Sherk thought Nick Diaz's reversals were insane, what is he gonna think when he hits the ground w/ BJ :shrug: plus, if Sherk wants it on the ground and BJ doesn't, well, GL tryin to take BJ down... Sherk's takedowns are far from unstoppable.

some good hype on ufc.com as well.

GLA ... if my UFC 84 & 85 picks dont fare well then im going to quietly fade away.. and probably start tailing u, kick!!!

 

[kickserv]

Good points raw.....should be great fight for sure:SIB
And yes I have been doing very well in MMA...but man did I suck ass on the latest DREAM card...pathetic:nono:

I am looking forward to the next 4 months or so of MMA action....lots of good fights on the horizon.....Sherk/Penn....Arlovski/Fedor.....Faber/Pulver and many more.


Also....did I mention GSP is amazing:mj07:

 

[gardenweasel]

penn could train from now till the cows come home and he`d still have stamina issues....

i don`t think anyone other than gsp(weasel crosses himself)has stopped sherk and he was just physically to big and strong(not to mention probably the best wrestler in the ufc)...

if penn can`t slap a sub on sherk in the 1st 2 rounds,i think he`ll be in trouble...

he looked excellent vs stevenson...but,at the point in the 2nd that penn subbed pulver,he looked to be tiring...

i agree that sherk is a live doggie...could be wrong...

we`ll see...

 

[rawli007]

Penn works from the moment the bell rings. if u look at his last three lightweight fights, he is letting it all hang out those early rounds. he is sure to be exhausted at the pace he set in those fights... but to his credit, he finished all of 'em (gomi, pulver, and stevenson). i know Sherk is a different animal than those guys, but i just dont see him finishing BJ unless he injures him (like Penn-Hughes 2, Penn apparently broke a rib)... and BJ can submit anyone.

as i said earlier, IF sherk can survive hurricane BJ then he has a chance to take the later rounds.... only b/c Sherk has a conditioning advantage over pretty much anyone... but he's got to make it to those later rounds first.

...certainly not trying to sway anyone away from betting on Sherk b/c his line is pretty tasty and who knows how this one turns out :shrug: ...this is a dream matchup for me. but i dont see him putting BJ in danger.

 

[weepaul]

I know everyone talks about Sherk being a cardio machine but thats because he controls the fight from the top position.

Watch his fight with GSP again. Sherk was starting to get tired when he could not impose his game plan on Rush.

I remember reading an interview with Sher that stuck in my mind. He said Nick Diaz was doing shit to him that he had never seen before. Wait until he encounters BJ's rubber legs.

I know it was a while ago but BJ did not gas in his 5 round fights with Uno and Pulver.

Hughes had a Bastard of a time trying to get BJ to the ground in their fights but he took Sherk down a shit load of times in their fight. I think Sherk only managed 2 takedowns in 5 rounds with Hughes.

In Penn's wins over Hughes and Stevenson, he hurt them both with punches and then got the takedown straight after that against 2 really good wrestlers. Franca managed to deck Sherk with a brutal knee, so he can be hurt. He better not find himself on the bottom against BJ or he will be in deep shit.

I believe BJ is going to light him up.

I will also be putting money on Tito and a huge wager on Jardine.

Good luck all.

 

[kickserv]

good points weepaul.......

and you are bang on....Jardine as a dog is a gift....that fight should be a "pick em".....Wanderlei ain't a top 10 fighter in that weight class (my opinion). And besides I have done very well going against Pride fighters...this is no different:SIB

And as I said earlier.....I think if ya put half a million on Jardine, Tito and Sherk you'll be a millionaire by the end of the night:SIB


Oh and if I had a gun to my head I'd pick Jardine....getting him as a dog is sweeeeet:SIB

 

[kickserv]

I have to agree with Weasel......I don't think it will make a bit of difference if Penn trains 24 hours a day....he'll be damn tired IF this goes 4 or 5 rounds:SIB

also....be curious to see the odds on Kazuhiro Nakamura...he should be a massive dog:SIB

 

[rawli007]

I have to agree with Weasel......I don't think it will make a bit of difference if Penn trains 24 hours a day....he'll be damn tired IF this goes 4 or 5 rounds:SIB

not worried about BJs conditioning at all... sure he looked tired after the Stevenson fight, but he was firing on all cylinders throughout that fight... full throttle from bell to bell for what was almost two complete rounds. anyone in the world would have been exhausted after the pace he set in that fight... thats just how he rolls.

http://mmashare.com/penn-vs-stevenson-t1123.html

BJ Penn gets tired. thats it. its not like he gasses and lets his arms dangle like that phuckup Travis Lutter.

Penn has gone five rounds comfortably at 155 in the past (Pulver 1 & Uno 2). Also, gone to decision w/ cardio machine GSP at 170 when he didnt even look to be in good shape.

GL to Sherk making it to the later rounds. even if he does, i dont think he wins any of the first three.

My prediction??? BJ Penn wins by murder.

we shall see..... :shrug: :0corn

 

[kickserv]

BJ wins by murder huh.......damn that would make for a crazy interview with Rogan now wouldn't it:mj07:


Actually......I wonder if they will let Tito speak after he beats Machida.....can you imagine what Ortiz will say in that interview with Rogan. He'll be telling Dana White to F**k off and ripping the UFC, and who knows what. Ya know Dana will be praying for Tito to lose just so Rogan won't have to interview him:mj07:


And for those of you that are wagering on Tito....do it now....those odds I (and rawli007) will not be this good come fight day.



Oh and Jardine.......what an AMAZING price he is....just debating if I should be greedy and wait for odds to improve....but $2.50 (+150) is damn good let me tell ya. :scared


and I'll say it for the 12th time.......Jardine, Tito, and Sherk......bet those guys and you'll make money...now way all three of those dudes lose...no friggen way:SIB....Huge value.......especially Jardine:scared

 

[kickserv]

look at the "tasty prop" for Sherk backers (like me)...I might take a shot on this:SIB


Sherk wins by 5 round decision $6.50 (+550)

damn good odds I'd say :scared


this also looks good......


BJ Penn/Sherk goes 5 round distance $3.50 (+250)


tasty....very tasty....might take a bite....not sure though:SIB

 

[kickserv]

ok...not waiting any longer.....line has gotten worse going to get on Jardine now.....odds are just incredible on Jardine....I can't believe he is this big an underdog:scared

Jardine should roll through Wandy......another Pride guy goes down.....Jardine KO in the second:SIB


so looks like this now:


MMA Record (since UFC 58)
---------------------------------------------

Prop Bet 14-5
Fighter vs. Fighter 58-50
Parlays 28-29

+86.43 Joe Rogans


Tito Ortiz beat Lyoto Machida $2.80 *2.5 Joe Rogans :scared

Keith Jardine beat Wanderlei Silva $2.40 *2.5 Joe Rogans :scared

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

odds incredible on Jardine, didn't you say it was +140??? That's nothing to write home about.

But of course, I don't play odds in MMA.

 

[kickserv]

valid point...perhaps incredible (I'll go with damn good!) might be overstating it a bit.....but the fact he's a dog at all is surprising:scared

Jardine, Sherk and Tito all great odds in my opinion:SIB

 

[rawli007]

ESPN put BJ Penn at #9 in their rankings. HA! they must have mixed him up w/ Sherk. :mj07:

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

Machida is better than people realize. I just can't stand the cocky bastard.

IMO, he's a top 5 LHW in the world. He has all the tools to bore people and hold a title however long he wants.

 

[rawli007]

i think we learn a lot about where Lyoto stands in the rankings after this fight w/ Tito. i despise Tito from a fan standpoint, but his size/strength/experience should make for Lyoto's toughest fight yet.

i agree w/ u, BUCS... Machida bores me to death as well... i just hate to see guys running backwards in MMA.