UFC 84: MAY 24th, Las Vegas...Picks and Analysis

[rawli007]

Tito Ortiz +160 for 2 units
BJ Penn -220 for 3.5 units (thoughts in other thread)

ive decided to hedge my bet on BJ by 1.5 units... not for lack of confidence, but ive decided these odds r too steep for me to make such a play on this particular five-rounder.

felt it was only fair to update this post as i HATE to see people talk about their hedge AFTER the event..

so, my plays for UFC 84 (updated):

Tito Ortiz (+160) 2 units
BJ Penn (-220) 2 units

GLA

:drinky:

 

[kickserv]

yeah....I hate that about madjacks.....when some guy 1 minute before the event says "I bought it back"....then why post if ya buy it back 1 minute before the event:mj07: Then of course there are the dudes that say how great they are yet never post a record. Or say they went 5-1 on the night and say "I am amazing" when 5-1 doesn't mean anything if ya bet 5 bucks on the 5 winners and a thousand on the loser:mj07: Just don't brag unless ya have a record to back it up. Thankfully that crap only happens in the NFL, NCAA, NBA, and MLB forums. Never happens in "off the wall" thankfully. Actually it really doesn't happen that much to be honest. Man did I ever get off topic:mj07:


and oh yeah.....I am amazing and the best handicapper ever......Jardine, Sherk, and Tito....make millions on those dogs.....did I mention how incredible I am:mj07:

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

I think laying on BJ Penn and sticking with it is the right play. Sherk has show historically that he doesn't fair to well to the elite competition. On top of that, he has fought in OVER a year.

 

[rawli007]

I think laying on BJ Penn and sticking with it is the right play. Sherk has show historically that he doesn't fair to well to the elite competition. On top of that, he has fought in OVER a year.

Well BJ has left something to be desired against his last two "elite" opponents (GSP and Hughes 2)... coincidentally the same two (and ONLY two) opponents Sherk has lost to in his whole career.

dont get me wrong i still like BJ.. just backing off a bit. no shame here.

P.S. kick ur right... for all the keyboard warriors (like many of us :mj07: )... it seems few of us are willing to post our picks.. and units played for that matter.

ill be posting my MMA record -- w/ fair warning -- effective June 7 (by that time ill be a member of at least one sportsbook that allows MMA parlays)..

 

[kickserv]

I wasn't taking a shot at you raw...I could care less if anyone posts a record or not.....it is just when they brag and have nothing to back it up is when I think it's funny:SIB


and you'll be glad to know raw that yahoo has BJ as #5 pound for pound...that'll make ya feel better.....

GSP number 2.....we all know he's number 1:SIB


also...anyone see the over/under odds on Tito and how many times he tells Dana to "Fu** off during the post fight interview:142smilie

I'm on the over:142smilie

 

[rawli007]

I wasn't taking a shot at you raw...I could care less if anyone posts a record or not.....it is just when they brag and have nothing to back it up is when I think it's funny:SIB

no i didnt take it that way at all.. ive just been meaning to start a record since i continue to post regularly.. i take my records very seriously, but currently i dont have an MMA record for just the plays i have posted. will start soon.

oh and my favorite is when peoples records automatically disappear once they go on a losing streak... :142smilie

and ive also been wondering what Joe Rogan is supposed to do if Tito pulls off the victory... i know Tito will be snubbed if he loses, but what if he wins?? that interview wouldnt benefit the UFC at all..

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

Ehh, I kept trying to keep track of my records, but I bet so much on so many different sports and different angles that it was too much to keep track of.

However, with my MMA, I do have record of those...I'm currently sitting at 88-62. UFC 79, UFC 80 killed me, but I didn't bet on 81,82,83, and UFN 12, and UFN 13 I was killer on. UFC 84 I'm definately feeling confident and looking to bounce back.

I've got nothing to hide, I typically tell you guys who'm I think to bet on, or my true opinions.

Lets get it on

 

[rawli007]

Ehh, I kept trying to keep track of my records, but I bet so much on so many different sports and different angles that it was too much to keep track of.

However, with my MMA, I do have record of those...I'm currently sitting at 88-62. UFC 79, UFC 80 killed me, but I didn't bet on 81,82,83, and UFN 12, and UFN 13 I was killer on. UFC 84 I'm definately feeling confident and looking to bounce back.

I've got nothing to hide, I typically tell you guys who'm I think to bet on, or my true opinions.
Lets get it on

BUCS ur one that does post ur picks and i appreciate that...

not trying to call anyone out... i could care less if anyone posts a record i just said i wanted to get one going for myself.

however, i do like to see people post their picks and wished it happened more often in the MMA threads... i guess there are fewer MMA bettors in these threads than i realize..

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

Yeah, you're probably right.

I only post picks and let you know that I'm specificly betting on them. I'll let people know what fights I like to see, or who I think will win all the time. But I typically make it pretty clear when I'm betting on the event.

I will certainly be betting on Penn, Machida, and Wandy.

I for one, wish there were more MMA fans here.

 

[The Sponge]

I just don't see it for Tito. I know Franklin is smaller but i just watch Machida just destroy him. If its a size advantage everyone is banking on just go look at Machidas's last fight. Like someone said in here before his last fight, Machida takes away his opponents strenghs. I think you guys are betting those generous odds more so then who wins the fight. Tito looked huge against Rasheed and if he wasn't cheating grabbing that fence he would have lost that fight to the smaller Rasheed. Just my humble opinion and if i have a change of heart i will hedge the bet 2 minutes after the fight if my book lets me.

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

I I think you guys are betting those generous odds more so then who wins the fight.

This is why I don't like the whole theory of betting the odds, etc...

Of course, if you're betting on someone who you truely feel will win the fight, and are getting great odds, then that's something else. That's just a bonus I guess you could call it. But, betting on a fighter just because you love the odds I think is a reciepe for losing. I'd prefer to just bet 1or2 fighters that I'm most confident in, and make the best money.

 

[rawli007]

I just don't see it for Tito. I know Franklin is smaller but i just watch Machida just destroy him. If its a size advantage everyone is banking on just go look at Machidas's last fight. Like someone said in here before his last fight, Machida takes away his opponents strenghs. I think you guys are betting those generous odds more so then who wins the fight. Tito looked huge against Rasheed and if he wasn't cheating grabbing that fence he would have lost that fight to the smaller Rasheed.

keep in mind that Rich Franklin now fights at 185... and IMO u cant really take away Tito's wrestling... no one else has except maybe Chuck, but Tito didnt choose to use his wrestling against Chuck.

i feel like Tito is the right play.. excuse me if i consider the odds.. its just the right thing to do IMO. a record doesnt mean chit unless u post units won/lost (in MMA/boxing at least). it's pretty easy to pick winners in MMA, just not usually willing to throw down at -500/-425/-550 odds like what we've seen recently for Koscheck/Fitch/Melendez, etc. i would have gone 3-0 if i bet on those fights!!! the risk vs. reward just doesnt make sense in MMA where anything can happen and i am only making single bets right now. not parlays... or i would include more BIG favorites.

also, i think most agree Tito cost himself the fight by grabbing the fence.. not the other way around. Rashad had done nothing that round except try for that takedown within the last 30 seconds...

 

[kickserv]

Well said raw......odds are pretty much the only thing I look at......records mean nothing...wagers mean nothing and units mean nothing unless odds are accounted for. For example my best two sports to wager on are tennis and mma, my tennis picks are year after year are way below 50%, in fact one year I was at 39%....but plus money:SIB It is all about the odds:SIB

I mean would anybody wager on Sherk if the odds were reversed:shrug: Ummmm not many. Plus even if odds were say 50/50 it really doesn't matter how many times you are correct it is the wager that counts. You could wager 5 bucks on tails for 99 coin flips and they all come up heads. Then on the 100th flip you wager 5 thousands bucks on tails and it comes up tails. You went 1 for 100 but are up money:SIB


And earlier when I said......"put half million on Jardine, Tito, and Sherk and you'll be a millionaire at the end of the night" do you think I'd say that if they were all say -990 odds? I don't think so. Do I really expect that all three will win for sure....no of course not, but because of the odds I think it is a smart play. Of course I don't have that kind of money so I guess I won't be a millionaire:mj07:



odds...it is almost all about the odds...unless of course it is GSP fighting...then odds mean nothing because nobody will ever beat him:142smilie

 

[The Sponge]

also, i think most agree Tito cost himself the fight by grabbing the fence.. not the other way around. Rashad had done nothing that round except try for that takedown within the last 30 seconds...

Tito grabbing that fence saved him from laying on his back a few times. Grabbing that fence is huge in some fights and can turn a fight completely around. Its one of Fedors favorite tricks. He loves to grab the ropes and as soon as he does the guy who thought would have the takedown is now in a huge disadvantage. Like Bucks said im all for taking a dog if he has a shot but there is no way im gonna take a fighter who has no shot but is getting great odds. That is silly. Not talking about this fight tho.

 

[The Sponge]

Well said raw......odds are pretty much the only thing I look at......records mean nothing...wagers mean nothing and units mean nothing unless odds are accounted for. For example my best two sports to wager on are tennis and mma, my tennis picks are year after year are way below 50%, in fact one year I was at 39%....but plus money:SIB It is all about the odds:SIB

I mean would anybody wager on Sherk if the odds were reversed:shrug: Ummmm not many. Plus even if odds were say 50/50 it really doesn't matter how many times you are correct it is the wager that counts. You could wager 5 bucks on tails for 99 coin flips and they all come up heads. Then on the 100th flip you wager 5 thousands bucks on tails and it comes up tails. You went 1 for 100 but are up money:SIB


And earlier when I said......"put half million on Jardine, Tito, and Sherk and you'll be a millionaire at the end of the night" do you think I'd say that if they were all say -990 odds? I don't think so. Do I really expect that all three will win for sure....no of course not, but because of the odds I think it is a smart play. Of course I don't have that kind of money so I guess I won't be a millionaire:mj07:



odds...it is almost all about the odds...unless of course it is GSP fighting...then odds mean nothing because nobody will ever beat him:142smilie

Kick all these fights the fighters have a chance. You are not betting just odds. You legitimately think they all have a chance. Its not a stretch to think any of these fighters who are dogs can win.

 

[gardenweasel]

Tito grabbing that fence saved him from laying on his back a few times. Grabbing that fence is huge in some fights and can turn a fight completely around. Its one of Fedors favorite tricks. He loves to grab the ropes and as soon as he does the guy who thought would have the takedown is now in a huge disadvantage. Like Bucks said im all for taking a dog if he has a shot but there is no way im gonna take a fighter who has no shot but is getting great odds. That is silly. Not talking about this fight tho.

not sure about tito/rashad,but i did see fedor grab the fence/ropes? vs matt lindland and it completely changed the fight...the result was that lindland ended up on his back instead of fedor...(granted it was early)

 

[The Sponge]

not sure about tito/rashad,but i did see fedor grab the fence/ropes? vs matt lindland and it completely changed the fight...the result was that lindland ended up on his back instead of fedor...(granted it was early)

Exactly what i mean Weasel. It can be huge in a fight. I saw that same fight also and LIndland had him down but grabbing that rope turned the whole fight around. That is huge in my opinion. I can't remember the ufc fight but a guy was getting ready to be drilled right thru the mat and grab the top of the cage and turned the whole fight around.

 

[rawli007]

Kick all these fights the fighters have a chance. You are not betting just odds. You legitimately think they all have a chance. Its not a stretch to think any of these fighters who are dogs can win.

i'd like to think i do the same, Sponge.. maybe i just misunderstood ur other post as meaning we just take dogs b/c they r dogs and thats not the case.. perhaps i took it too personal b/c kickserv, BUCS, and myself r pretty much the only ones who post picks for UFC events regularly...

the ortiz/evans fight is in the past... ive let my feelings be known that i feel the edge is in favor of Ortiz (kickserv as well) against Machida.. w/ the way i forecasted the lines, i feel Ortiz is a solid play (based on odds of course :SIB ). thats all...

GLA.... back to my bourbon on the rocks.

 

[The Sponge]

i b/c kickserv, BUCS, and myself r pretty much the only ones who post picks for UFC events regularly...



GLA.... back to my bourbon on the rocks.

Cmon man Muhr always comes to the table as well as Weasel, layinwood and wepaul as well as some others. Most guys just give their opinions just like me. I don't need people to post records to see if they know what they are talking about. Eventually you notice if the guy stays around long enough

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

You know what really sucks about this PPV?

It's the lady and I's anniversary. God can only hope I can talk her into somehow watching this.