UFC 95 : Feb. 21st, London, England

[dawgball]

I'm looking for this to be the first MMA fight card to start our tracking in this forum.

Remember the rules:

1. All picks in edited posts will be ignored
2. Please post your pick, odds, and amount (units or dollars - your choice; but units preferred) for each play. I prefer American style odds, but I can manage with whatever you post.
3. If you have a change to a play just post again with your correction prior to the fight.
4. Post in the "official" event thread to count. Hint: this is the official event thread for UFC 95.

This is not a contest. This is simply a way for the board to keep an eye on who is flowing.

If it doesn't seem that the board cares for it much, then I will stop.

Share your thoughts.

 

[dawgball]

Sonnen +220 - 1 kickserv

 

[gardenweasel]

I'm looking for this to be the first MMA fight card to start our tracking in this forum.

Remember the rules:

1. All picks in edited posts will be ignored
2. Please post your pick, odds, and amount (units or dollars - your choice; but units preferred) for each play. I prefer American style odds, but I can manage with whatever you post.
3. If you have a change to a play just post again with your correction prior to the fight.
4. Post in the "official" event thread to count. Hint: this is the official event thread for UFC 95.

This is not a contest. This is simply a way for the board to keep an eye on who is flowing.

If it doesn't seem that the board cares for it much, then I will stop.

Share your thoughts.

bro..just a question....wouldn`t it be better to start a clean thread a few days before?...and maybe use this as the b.s. thread?....kickserv`s threads are usually loaded with flotsam and jetsam(lol )....and this one`s already somewhat fouled...

it`d be nice to see a pristine thread with "just picks" from each poster...

it`s up to you...it`s your baby...i`ll abide by your decision...:sadwave:

 

[The Sponge]

i for one think charting guys plays is a bad idea. Now a guy like me thinks it is a noble idea but i have been around a long time and have notice that when u do something like this and a guy starts getting in a rut, he sometimes vanishes. Me, i could go 0-20 and still post but not all guys have my make up. Maybe it will work in this section of the post board but i hate to see the dialogue get cut down cause a guy is slumping. I think one could tell by reading others post who knows what they are talking about. For new guys tho this would not be the case. Hopefully this is taking only as my opinion and not a bash because it really doesn't matter to me. Just don't want to see some of the guys disappear. Could be a different type of guy that post on a fight thread so i could be wrong. A guy like Thong who came on board a short while ago might run for the hills and not have the makeup i have. His may be Mabeline. Kidding Thongy. Just kidding.

 

[The Sponge]

i`m back where i was pre-dlh(almost)...at that point(with xmas coming)i had planned to make a nice little christmas withdrawal thanks to the fruit of oscar`s labors...

needless to say,it didn`t happen....

i`ll either be making a withdrawal come monday or i`ll be back in the shitter digging myself out of another hole thanks to another fine mexican american gladiator screwing the pooch....

diego...when 4:30/5 pm eastern rolls around on saturday afternoon...as i`m watching the fight updates at mma weekly or sherdog and waiting for the tape delay to show on spike that evening,,i sincerely hope i`ll be counting my withdrawal money....not changing my soiled nappy..... :mj09:

i to took a royal bath on Delahoya. What is sad about it is the Darch fight the other night over Arce i love Darce and at no time did i ever waiver. JUst had total confidence. With DelaHoya at the 11th hour i almost bought out of all my bets because i just kept thinking i was making a big mistake. No confidence at all in the play but like a fool i stuck with it. Why i didn't at least take half back i will never know. Can't understand why a lot of us are so bitter about that fight. I have had some bad beat downs in my life but that one just rubs me the wrong way.

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

i for one think charting guys plays is a bad idea. Now a guy like me thinks it is a noble idea but i have been around a long time and have notice that when u do something like this and a guy starts getting in a rut, he sometimes vanishes. Me, i could go 0-20 and still post but not all guys have my make up. Maybe it will work in this section of the post board but i hate to see the dialogue get cut down cause a guy is slumping. I think one could tell by reading others post who knows what they are talking about. For new guys tho this would not be the case. Hopefully this is taking only as my opinion and not a bash because it really doesn't matter to me. Just don't want to see some of the guys disappear. Could be a different type of guy that post on a fight thread so i could be wrong. A guy like Thong who came on board a short while ago might run for the hills and not have the makeup i have. His may be Mabeline. Kidding Thongy. Just kidding.

I think we are all men here and people we've all been in the ruts where we just can't seem to find a way out. However, if someone vanishes, that's their own. This isn't a competition, and pretty much the majority of us post our fights with the odds AT SOME POINT, it's just not tracked.

bro..just a question....wouldn`t it be better to start a clean thread a few days before?...and maybe use this as the b.s. thread?....kickserv`s threads are usually loaded with flotsam and jetsam(lol )....and this one`s already somewhat fouled...

it`d be nice to see a pristine thread with "just picks" from each poster...

it`s up to you...it`s your baby...i`ll abide by your decision...:sadwave:

I agree, I think we should start a thread on the THURSDAY before each PPV just for picks...or 2 days before UFN's or whatever other fights we cover.

 

[The Sponge]

Think we also should also start a new thread with the results and play by play. this way the guys who watch this early dont ruin it for the guys who watch it late. I usually don't even come to the board until the payperview is over because they usually show a couple of the under card fights on the main card, and it is basically worthless to watch them when u know the results.

 

[gardenweasel]

daddy stevenson is fighting josh neer on a replay of an old ufc fight night wednesday evening at 9 pm eastern on spike...

 

[Ghost Kid]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/

undercard odds are out

Dos Santos - closer odds than I anticipated
coming off a big win
but I don't know much about the opponent

 

[gardenweasel]

neil grove vs mike cieznolwoleckiwiczky?....one guy is 6` tall and 205...the other is 6`7" and 280?....

 

[kickserv]

Two things............

1) The "picks only" thread is up


2) For those in Canada you can watch this event live in HD on Sportsnet


Free, in HD, and LIVE......gotta love that


http://www.sportsnet.ca/mma/

 

[layinwood]

I'm shocked everyone is on Sonnen in the picks thread. I must think more of Maia than everyone else. I don't see this fight lasting long at all.

 

[Coach_K]

Picks Thread Suggestion

Picks Thread Suggestion

Dawg, Kick, etc...who ever is monitoring the picks thread, let me say first off great idea. I really like it, however I have one suggestion, take it or leave it, it just makes the picks easier to view. Anyway, I was thinking we could do it kind of like OldSchool has been trying to do for the NCAAB thread. Basically he lists each fight then next to the fighters name he lists who is on them at what odds for how many units.

Example:
Diego Sanchez
Dawg -320 (2units), CoachK -325 (3units), etc
Joe Stevenson
Kick +250(3rogans), Doe +225 (2units), etc

Chael Sonnen
Dawg +250 (1unit) Kick +225 (2rogans) etc
Demian Maia
Coach -280 (2 units) Doe -250 (3units) etc

Basically then you dont have to scroll down each persons picks to see which fighter they have. Just a thought of course, again appreciate your time. Parlays can be left in individual threads, and the top thread can be edited by the writer so any picks put in the picks thread can be added to the top comment of thread. Thanks again GL all with your plays

 

[rawli007]

I'm shocked everyone is on Sonnen in the picks thread. I must think more of Maia than everyone else. I don't see this fight lasting long at all.

I think very highly of Maia... he is one of my favorite fighters and I think he is capable of submitting Anderson.

However, I lean Sonnen based on odds.... I think of Maia's fight with Ed Herman... Sonnen's submission defense and ground n pound is better than Herman's; improvements in those areas could have won Herman that fight.

Sonnen is the best all around fighter Maia has faced, and i feel he's being underrated by the books.

 

[dawgball]

I think very highly of Maia... he is one of my favorite fighters and I think he is capable of submitting Anderson.

However, I lean Sonnen based on odds.... I think of Maia's fight with Ed Herman... Sonnen's submission defense and ground n pound is better than Herman's; improvements in those areas could have won Herman that fight.

Sonnen is the best all around fighter Maia has faced, and i feel he's being underrated by the books.

Pretty much where I'm at. I think Maia may have a slight edge but the fight could tip to Sonnen easily. With the odds posted, I had to nibble.

 

[dawgball]

Dawg, Kick, etc...who ever is monitoring the picks thread, let me say first off great idea. I really like it, however I have one suggestion, take it or leave it, it just makes the picks easier to view. Anyway, I was thinking we could do it kind of like OldSchool has been trying to do for the NCAAB thread. Basically he lists each fight then next to the fighters name he lists who is on them at what odds for how many units.

Example:
Diego Sanchez
Dawg -320 (2units), CoachK -325 (3units), etc
Joe Stevenson
Kick +250(3rogans), Doe +225 (2units), etc

Chael Sonnen
Dawg +250 (1unit) Kick +225 (2rogans) etc
Demian Maia
Coach -280 (2 units) Doe -250 (3units) etc

Basically then you dont have to scroll down each persons picks to see which fighter they have. Just a thought of course, again appreciate your time. Parlays can be left in individual threads, and the top thread can be edited by the writer so any picks put in the picks thread can be added to the top comment of thread. Thanks again GL all with your plays

Thanks for the input. The problem I would have with doing it this way is accessibility if I understand what you are saying correctly. I am likely not available leading up to a fight.

This is more just to serve as a post-fight update for the board.

To reiterate, only overall winning cards will be posted. And overall YTD winners.

I'll be using Stanley's model from golf at first to see if it works out.

Look forward to seeing your plays.

 

[layinwood]

I don't know if Herman is a good fight to draw on. Herman never did anything in that fight. Sonnen's sub defense is questionable. 5 of his 9 losses have come from subs and I would agrue that Maia is better than both Babalu and Horn at Subs which are a few of Sonnen's losses.

Maia is so good as bjj that it keeps guys from attacking from fear of being sub'd. It's much like GSP with his takedowns now. People are so aware of and have to defend it so much they can't strike like they normally would.

My only question is we haven't seen Maia get tagged on the chin yet and if he does what will happen? Until then, I'll ride him to up until his loss vs Silva. lol

 

[rawli007]

I don't know if Herman is a good fight to draw on. Herman never did anything in that fight. Sonnen's sub defense is questionable. 5 of his 9 losses have come from subs and I would agrue that Maia is better than both Babalu and Horn at Subs which are a few of Sonnen's losses.

Maia is so good as bjj that it keeps guys from attacking from fear of being sub'd. It's much like GSP with his takedowns now. People are so aware of and have to defend it so much they can't strike like they normally would.

My only question is we haven't seen Maia get tagged on the chin yet and if he does what will happen? Until then, I'll ride him to up until his loss vs Silva. lol

Sonnen's sub defense was weak for a long while, but has improved greatly IMO... His armbar loss to Horn was one of the most memorable armbars ever - Jeremy Horn didnt even know what he was doing, much less Sonnen. Chael was getting the best of Babalu before being sub'd... that was a good fight.

Since those days Chael has had a good stretch.. I think his first Filho fight was a wakeup call; he got lazy with his defense. He came back strong against Baker and was very aware of his 20 or so sub attempts.

That said, Maia is on a completely different level grappling-wise from anyone at middleweight. The guy is a freak of nature..... he's got more jiu-jitsu titles than the whole UFC combined. I've posted his jiu-jitsu highlights on here before, he has victories over Gabriel Gonzaga and a slew of other phenoms in sport jiu-jitsu.

He would sub Babalu in the first round.. that's how good he is. :scared



Herman and Sonnen have similar styles and train/have trained in the same camp, that's the basis for my comparison... only Sonnen is twice the fighter. Maia's game is predictable, this fight will go to the ground. His takedowns are sloppy, but they work.. and it's hard to defend a guy who pulls guard.

It's a risky play, and i'm officially scared. :142smilie I wont feel comfortable for Chael until this fight is over, b/c Maia can pull submissions out of his ass at any point. If Sonnen's sub defense isn't where i think it is, he'll be subbed in the first round, that's all there is to it.

I'm not risking much, but i cant resist the odds. I think Chael can keep it standing for a while and score some points (he said in an interview that Maia WILL be the one to shoot first, but he expects it to hit the ground at some point).

 

[layinwood]

I like debating with you Raw, you're good natured and it's about the fights not anything personal.

Here's my thing with Sonnen. You say he's gotten better on his sub defense and that the Filho fight was a wakeup call. To me it was just that sub defense is his weakness. During the periods he wasn't sub'd was it because his d was good or the sub attempts where bad?

It's a steep price on the fight so I can understand someone not liking how hight it is but if it goes to the ground I just can't see Sonnen stopping the sub for 3 rounds.

No matter what it will be good. I love watching Maia's transitions, he's truely amazing.

 

[The Sponge]

Two things............

1) The "picks only" thread is up


2) For those in Canada you can watch this event live in HD on Sportsnet


Free, in HD, and LIVE......gotta love that


http://www.sportsnet.ca/mma/

Will u be going over Dawgs head and banning people in the picks thread for off topic behavior, or will u let dawg do that? :director: