UFC Fight Night 24: "Nogueira vs. Davis", March 26th, Seattle, WA

[DeFactoCrippler]

Good points about the downside emotion but it can also work the other way. He is up against a guy he knows the UFC likes. A win here and his career is back on track so that is motivation

This is a good match up for both at this stage of their careers

I know what you mean, but I get the feeling that if they thought semerzier was hungry they wouldn't lay bruce leroy out like that. They have little to gain and everything to lose.

I think they figure leroy is a decent size for 145, and that semerzier doesnt have the ability to KO him. Which is bad for him because when you have lost three straight and your job is on the line, there is pressure to make it an exciting fight and keep it standing.

Even if leroy cant finish him i think they give him the decision whether he deserves it or not.

 

[gardenweasel]

I know what you mean, but I get the feeling that if they thought semerzier was hungry they wouldn't lay bruce leroy out like that. They have little to gain and everything to lose.

I think they figure leroy is a decent size for 145, and that semerzier doesnt have the ability to KO him. Which is bad for him because when you have lost three straight and your job is on the line, there is pressure to make it an exciting fight and keep it standing.

Even if leroy cant finish him i think they give him the decision whether he deserves it or not.

if it goes past the first,leroy might have a problem...he seems like a front runner to me...

 

[DeFactoCrippler]

if it goes past the first,leroy might have a problem...he seems like a front runner to me...

He did go two rounds with micheal johnson on TUF. He did lose but his cardio looked alright in a clinch style fight with a guy alot bigger than him.

 

[olddirtyfighter]

He did go two rounds with micheal johnson on TUF. He did lose but his cardio looked alright in a clinch style fight with a guy alot bigger than him.

He also won his first fight on the show in the 2nd round, after loosing 1st round clearly.

 

[gardenweasel]

we`ll see if d.f.c. is right about dana and leroy in his second ufc fight...junie browning caught a gift in his first fight(kaplan) then was put in way over his head vs cole miller...

if dana is truly enamored with the guy,then don`t expect him to be matched with a cole miller level guy in his second fight...s.....

he`ll last a little longer than junie browning if matched correctly....but that`s about the extent of it...

much more flash than substance...at least at this point...maybe he improves...

 

[The Sponge]

Wasn't there a black guy from a tuff about two or three years back who had nice kicks that Dana also loved? He gassed badly in his first fight and i havent seen him again. All the guys hated him? I think he got accused of quitting one of his tuff fights. Might have been on Tito's team and was basically their big hope.

 

[The Sponge]

This clown

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/412862-jamie-yager-released-from-the-ufc

 

[DeFactoCrippler]

This clown

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/412862-jamie-yager-released-from-the-ufc

Lol yea, him. I think Dana saw his marketing potential but I don't think the UFC was really backing him that much because on the show he gassed and didn't answer the bell, then got stretchered out. the general consensus was that he was a bitch and I don't think Dana liked him at all on a personal level.

And the fight that he was given was just the standard fight with someone from the house for the TUF finale undercard, if anything he was given one of the easier fighters (or what they thought to be easy).

When I say that TUF fighters are given easy match ups, I mean after they win their fight at the finale and have made the cut.

This situation is different because leroy missed the TUF finale because of injury. So, this fight is technically his UFC debut.

I know leroy looks like a miniature version of yager, but I wouldn't compare the two aside from marketability. Leroy proved he had some heart in the micheal johnson fight.

 

[DeFactoCrippler]

we`ll see if d.f.c. is right about dana and leroy in his second ufc fight...junie browning caught a gift in his first fight(kaplan) then was put in way over his head vs cole miller...

if dana is truly enamored with the guy,then don`t expect him to be matched with a cole miller level guy in his second fight...s.....

I don't really take the TUF finale fight into condiseration because it has to be against someone from the house. Plus they usually match them up based on beefs they had with each other.

Also the TUF fighters that compete in the finale don't have contracts yet. In most cases the loser gets cut.

So what I mean is they get an easy fight in the first fight after they have signed a contract. I know the trend exists in my head, but I haven't confirmed it on paper.

But lets look a t the last few TUF competitions and the fighters who won on the finale and were offered a contract.

TUF #11

Court Mcgee (winner)

The first fight they gave him was ryan jensen. he looked ok but didnt dominate, he got a third round finish. It seems since he had a little trouble, so the next guy they are giving him is jesse bongfedlt.

Kris McCray (runner up)

he cut down to 170 and they gave him Carlos Eduardo Rocha, who making his UFC debut. they talked up mccray big time and i got the feeling he was expected to win, he looked alright but got caught in a sub, it was an inexperienced mistake but it wasnt because he was outmatched.

Brad Tavares

They gave him Baroni and tavares scored a first round KO

Rich Attonito

He was the guy who beat jamie yager on the finale.They gave him Rafael Natal who was making his UFC debut. Attonito won by decision.

Chris Camozzi

They gave him dong yi yang, yet another guy making his ufc debut. Camozzi won by decision.

Kyle Noke

He was highly touted as being the best fighter on the show. He was given Rob Kimmons and noke won by sub.

TUF #10

Roy Nelson (winner)

they gave him stefan struve, a total mismatch he just zocked in the face one time.

Brendan Schaub (runner up)

The gave him chase gormly and he won by first round KO

Jon Madsen

They gave him mostapha al turk who was coming off two first round KO's. madsen won by decision.

James Mcsweeny

He lost to travis brown, who was making his ufc debut.

Matt Mitrione

They gave him kimbo and he won easily

 

[DeFactoCrippler]

So thats 9-2 over that last 2 seasons with one of the losses being a little flukey imo and mscsweeny was just a bust.

None of the people were outmatched in their first fight after signing. Most of the people that lost to TUF fighters in these fights were cut immediately afterwards, which says quite a bit.

 

[gardenweasel]

I don't really take the TUF finale fight into condiseration because it has to be against someone from the house. Plus they usually match them up based on beefs they had with each other.

Also the TUF fighters that compete in the finale don't have contracts yet. In most cases the loser gets cut.

So what I mean is they get an easy fight in the first fight after they have signed a contract. I know the trend exists in my head, but I haven't confirmed it on paper.

But lets look a t the last few TUF competitions and the fighters who won on the finale and were offered a contract.

TUF #11

Court Mcgee (winner)

The first fight they gave him was ryan jensen. he looked ok but didnt dominate, he got a third round finish. It seems since he had a little trouble, so the next guy they are giving him is jesse bongfedlt.

Kris McCray (runner up)

he cut down to 170 and they gave him Carlos Eduardo Rocha, who making his UFC debut. they talked up mccray big time and i got the feeling he was expected to win, he looked alright but got caught in a sub, it was an inexperienced mistake but it wasnt because he was outmatched.

Brad Tavares

They gave him Baroni and tavares scored a first round KO

Rich Attonito

He was the guy who beat jamie yager on the finale.They gave him Rafael Natal who was making his UFC debut. Attonito won by decision.

Chris Camozzi

They gave him dong yi yang, yet another guy making his ufc debut. Camozzi won by decision.

Kyle Noke

He was highly touted as being the best fighter on the show. He was given Rob Kimmons and noke won by sub.

TUF #10

Roy Nelson (winner)

they gave him stefan struve, a total mismatch he just zocked in the face one time.

Brendan Schaub (runner up)

The gave him chase gormly and he won by first round KO

Jon Madsen

They gave him mostapha al turk who was coming off two first round KO's. madsen won by decision.

James Mcsweeny

He lost to travis brown, who was making his ufc debut.

Matt Mitrione

They gave him kimbo and he won easily

it`s 9-2 but,imo it`s tough to draw conclusions from this...

throwing guys in with unknowns like natal(it was even going into the 3rd)...rocha(who won)......brwn(who won)...

and i think you`re waaaay off intimating that struve is a gimme.....his only losses in the ufc were to top tier heavies(dos santos and big country)......

because nelson catches you doesn`t mean you`re a set-up...ask brendan schaub....

i think you have to take each bout individually.....

i wouldn`t make such a broad generalization...

he may win vs semenzier....but i wouldn`t put the rent on bruce lee even vs a guy on a losing streak....

i`ll be curious to see the odds...

 

[Ghost Kid]

Pretty enormous generalization, as GW stated.

Not something I would personally take into account, but to each his own

Garcia opened -130 over the Zombie a few hours ago.

Now -115 either way.

Great last minute scrap.

 

[DeFactoCrippler]

it`s 9-2 but,imo it`s tough to draw conclusions from this...

throwing guys in with unknowns like natal(it was even going into the 3rd)...rocha(who won)......brwn(who won)...

Thats the point...they are all unknowns. Its just like boxing, the UFC contacts the smaller promotions and says "send me a body".

There is a repeated trend of pairing TUF fighters who have signed contracts, with fighters that are on their way out, or have just been signed as a punching bag for them and have been cut immediately afterwards.

and i think you`re waaaay off intimating that struve is a gimme.....his only losses in the ufc were to top tier heavies(dos santos and big country)......

Haha I'm coming right out and stating it. I know he was coming off that impressive majority decision over paul beuntello :facepalm: before facing roy, but he didn't get "caught" roy launched a well executed punch after backing him up, no?

Also roy got a #1 contender bought right after that. Struve was the textbook definition of a stepping stone.

(also watch the struve morecraft fight, he lost that in my eyes)

Struve last four bouts

-majority decision over beutello
-humiliating loss to roy
-was gettin pummeled by morecraft until he tried to save his job by pulling the old fake touch gloves to side kick.
- beat sean mckorkel

He is the definition of lower tier

 

[DeFactoCrippler]

Pretty enormous generalization, as GW stated.

I don't understand how. I asserted that the UFC gives easy fights to TUF competitors that have signed a UFC contract.

I then stated the evidence which makes me think that to be true.

For instance, the last four years TUF fighters in the first fight of their contract have gone 21-8.

Now that means that they are winning at a roughly 3:1 rate. Now, this would be quite an anomaly if the fights were evenly matched, no?

Not only that, I tired to go back and break down each fight as to not generalize and show taht each and every one looked like an easy fight (atleast on paper).

The first TUF season was the absolute worst, where every single fighter won their first fight. Well actually it was 8-2, but the two fighters that lost were matched against two other TUF fighters which guarantees atleast 2 fighters lose.

Go back and look at who they fought too, the biggest cans you can find.

 

[gardenweasel]

Thats the point...they are all unknowns. Its just like boxing, the UFC contacts the smaller promotions and says "send me a body".

There is a repeated trend of pairing TUF fighters who have signed contracts, with fighters that are on their way out, or have just been signed as a punching bag for them and have been cut immediately afterwards.



Haha I'm coming right out and stating it. I know he was coming off that impressive majority decision over paul beuntello :facepalm: before facing roy, but he didn't get "caught" roy launched a well executed punch after backing him up, no?

Also roy got a #1 contender bought right after that. Struve was the textbook definition of a stepping stone.

(also watch the struve morecraft fight, he lost that in my eyes)

Struve last four bouts

-majority decision over beutello
-humiliating loss to roy
-was gettin pummeled by morecraft until he tried to save his job by pulling the old fake touch gloves to side kick.
- beat sean mckorkel

He is the definition of lower tier

no,i don`t think he is...i think he`s a very young fighter who fought his first ufc fight 3 days after his 21st birthday...vs junior dos santos...lol


he already has beaten the lower/lower middle rung guys he`s fought in the ufc...

he`s still a beanpole...he has to do some growing and maturing to reach his full potential...but he has some stand-up and submission skills...

is he championship material?...no..top 10?...probably not...will he ever be?...maybe.maybe not....but he`s not a joke ,either...

he`s been in 7 ufc fights already...6 were finishes(4 for him,2 against)..... the decision was a war...and that`s good for business..

i think you need to cut the guy a little slack...

i think you`re way out in left field on this...and i seriously doubt that dana is seeking out and signing "cans" to prop up some guys from the tuff show....

but hey,we`re all entitled to our own personal conspiracy theories....

who knows?...

 

[DeFactoCrippler]

no,i don`t think he is...i think he`s a very young fighter who fought his first ufc fight 3 days after his 21st birthday...vs junior dos santos...lol

I'm not saying he is talentless or is never going anywhere...I'm saying he is lower tier at the moment.

If he wasn't lower tier, or more importantly, the UFC didn't consider him lower tier, they would not have relegated him to the prelims after the roy nelson loss. (What would have happened if he lost that fight against morecraft?)

He gets paid around around 14k per fight as well, so he is in the lower tier money wise.

i think you`re way out in left field on this...and i seriously doubt that dana is seeking out and signing "cans" to prop up some guys from the tuff show....

Firstly, I don't think that would be out of left field at all. This is how you build a brand, just like boxing.

Secondly, it seems that people want to simply ignore (or refuse to believe) statistics that say otherwise.

Whether or not want to think "Bill Mahood" is a "can" or not, the fact is they hired him to fight Forest Griffin in his first fight after TUF, then released him. (this happens the majority of the time)

If Bill Mahood was a good fighter, why would they not keep him around? Why is he only signed to a 1 fight contract?

I'm just curious, how would you otherwise explain the 21-8 trend over the last 4 seasons?

but hey,we`re all entitled to our own personal conspiracy theories....
who knows?...

Haha I wouldn't call this my personal theory as the UFC has been accused of doing this by mostly by other fighters in the UFC who feel slighted.

I think my own personal theory would be that when Jon Jones entered to "bruno mars" that was him pledging his allegiance to the illuminatti.

 

[Ghost Kid]

I guess the oddsmakers disagree with you
Mackens Semerzier 2.5 to 1 fave

not exactly "throwing Leroy a bone"

Too bad - I was hoping Semerzier would be the dog

 

[Ghost Kid]

UFC Fight Night 24 Facebook stream includes Caceres-Semerzier, Madsen-Russow
http://mmajunkie.com/news/22951/ufc...campaign=Feed:+mmajunkie+(MMAjunkie.com+Feed)

 

[DeFactoCrippler]

I guess the oddsmakers disagree with you
Mackens Semerzier 2.5 to 1 fave

Maybe he has not been able to train properly coming off the injury I'm not sure.

Hey if TUF fighters are winning at a 3:1 rate, and I'm getting 2:1 on my money, I'll still take that anytime.

I get the feeling I'm going to have to go out a giant limb everytime but I see bruce leroy coming out in his stupid jumpsuit and scoring a first round tko. Unless semerzier can sub him anything except a clear cut decision will goto leroy anyways.

not exactly "throwing Leroy a bone"

Simply because of the line? Do you have a suggestion as to who would have been an easier fight for leroy at 145?

 

[gardenweasel]

Maybe he has not been able to train properly coming off the injury I'm not sure.

Hey if TUF fighters are winning at a 3:1 rate, and I'm getting 2:1 on my money, I'll still take that anytime.

I get the feeling I'm going to have to go out a giant limb everytime but I see bruce leroy coming out in his stupid jumpsuit and scoring a first round tko. Unless semerzier can sub him anything except a clear cut decision will goto leroy anyways.



Simply because of the line? Do you have a suggestion as to who would have been an easier fight for leroy at 145?

dfc,if you actually really like leroy,you can make a killing here....+185 is pretty generous...

this line actually has me thinking about leroy....

there are other guys on semenzier`s level...roop/rivera/garza...and imo,garcia and "korean zombie"(lol) are capable of losing to anyone...

i mean that`s a subjective argument....we won`t settle it...

either semezier is much more highly thought of than you figured or bruce leroy is lower than whale shit....

if he`s +185 to the worst fighter at the weight in the ufc,then it seems that if a rattlesnake farted it would blow dust in his face....

but,this was a good conversation...now that we`ve debated it,a meaningless fight becomes much more interesting....

now what about garcia and "korean zombie"?......"tuf man" makes a comeback... .