The Open Rules, in my peculiar world. Money is not what this is about. It's the stuff that dreams are made of.
No. 1: Phil Mickelson(20/1 and 16/1 e.w.)
His recent form in major championships on American soil is hard to fault, Sundays now included. The ONLY player on the planet I rank as wanting "whatever major comes next" as much and more than Tiger.
All major championships are tests of the mind as much as the stroke, with the crucible of the U.S. Open justifiably known for patience and survival. I don't see how Mickelson could have knocked on so many doors recently if this is all lost on him.
The demons of unfulfilled expectations will be roiling about as Phil looks to position himself early on or contend late on Sunday. Desperately wanting success can get in the way of letting things happen, especially early. But more often, when the worthy contenders are put to the test, that desire manifests itself in a resilient and keen ability to seize opportunities and save crucial strokes and timely hole putts because the moment requires it. (Westchester was not the place for all of that.) This week at the Open, appropriate levels of judgment and patience on Phil's part will not surprise me, and the harbringers of his fate I will be watching for are none other than failures in execution.
I don't need to look at stats to know that Mickelson is having a monster year driving the ball and that it will be key to his performance in the major championships this season. Lefty and I both believe that right now he can stand on the tee and gain the advantage over Tiger from driving his ball with the appropriate club to the proper target (and not give up a decided advantage to any specialists in the field), and from there all that the second ranked player in the world seeks becomes possible, maybe even snatching it when Tiger most wants it.
The Open has its share of Saturday night (and even Sunday night) surprises, and more than its share of favorites and streaking players and legends being shown an early exit on Friday. Nonetheless, it remains an examination in golf. In play off the tee and holing out. Preparation meets opportunity. Get it done.
No. 2: Ernie Els(16/1 and 14/1 e.w.)
There was a stretch earlier this year when Ernie's swing and his overall form looked as majestic to me as I can ever recall it being. I look for that solid foundation to find this spot to its liking.
No 3: Tiger Woods(5/2 To Win)
These odds would seem more appropriate for Augusta or Pebble Beach or St. Andrews. Unlike two months ago at Augusta, if the O/U was 1.5 on Tiger going forward from today with wins in this championship over the next four years, I'd pass, or take the under. This wager will be my contribution toward seeing someone bloody his nose for a change, or my insurance if his quest for the Grand Slam lives on.
No. 4: Angel Cabrera(80/1 and 66/1 e.w.)
Counterpunches well. A value pick
Quick capsules for some other contenders much on my mind:
A. Likely to have my backing for a few dollars:
Furyk (high quotient for "wanting it, and getting what he wants" to include among his obvious attributes); Cink (his A game may be on display); Montgomerie (kindly draw on that good karma contained in all the correspondence and e-mails you received).
B. Probably passing, but certainly had a look:
Price (on the Monday before he won at Colonial I circled him as a likely play at Muirfield); Toms (I just don't think this is his week to win); Leonard (might hang around the whole time); and Singh (I keep looking for him to stick it left, again; I remember Opens more for sparking those that have been off in some sort of wilderness, like a Garcia or a Duval or a Love, or a Nicklaus or a Watson or a Payne Stewart, rather than clearing things up for someone that has been hung up on sticking it left, again).
A Favorite Proposition with ties for me to all the lore and dreams of the game:
Leader after the First Round of the U.S. Open (0.20* on each @ 5dimes):
Lehman(66/1); Cink(50/1); Perez(100/1); Montgomerie(40/1); Furyk(33/1); Perry(100/1); and Maruyama(66/1)
Bethpage:
With greens acknowledged as lacking the nasty undulations found at venues such as Oakland Hills, I think it helps rather than hurts the prospects of my four selections, as well as players like Singh, Price, Montgomerie and Lehman. If the weather makes things soft or the winds don't blow, the lack of crowns and swales to protect the pins found at venues such as the latest darling, Pinehurst, could result in the top scores going much lower than expected. I will also be tracking Vijay's interesting observation that players with a laser straight trajectory off the tee will fare better than players that shape their shots. But I expect the players will give the test high marks after the dust or the mud settles on Sunday, and as Hubert Green once said about the USGA, "It's not their first rodeo".
GL
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Don't believe everything you think.
