Openers:
- - I was at Olympic for the U.S. Open in 1987 and 1998 for all four rounds; also three or four rounds at Medinah (1975 and 1990), Hazeltine (1991), and Olympia Fields (2003). I have a great record that I am proud of in major championships (and The Players) since capping golf on a weekly basis in 2002, including the U.S. Open, with Geoff Ogilvy at either 80/1 or 66/1 in 2006, and Lucas Glover at 200/1 and Ross Fisher at 125/1 in 2009, but I was poor at the 2003 U.S. Open (and subsequent Hazeltine and Medinah P.G.A.'s I have attended) (while Stanley was easily nailing Jim Furyk at Olympia Fields) . . . I'm back again, and I arrived yesterday, exhausted from my brutal work schedule and attending to some necessary family matters before managing to steal away for this two week trip to California, and what I've fashioned for this event comes far more from my thoughts and work over the last 5 months than the last 5 days, and nothing much will change over the next 5 days featuring a hectic schedule of spectating, traveling, golfing, dining, nieces, etc., which will take me even further from my preferred and proven golf capping routines; but I wait, then plan, then anticipate for 5 or more years for these opportunities, and I wouldn't change a thing for a chance to instead sit in front of of my brother-in-laws 50 inch (or is it 60 inch?) 3D television and my computer and get naps in the recliner plus 6 good hours of sleep each night (this Friday night should be my first chance in over 10 days to get at least 6 good hours of sleep at night).
Preliminaries:
- - I need to get something on paper and then get to bed, so before the off I'll be back editing this entry with some addititions and some polishing.
- - In my first visit in 1987 I thought Olympic and San Francisco had a good "vibe" for Europeans, and my thinking on that has never changed. Seve Ballesteros was swashbuckling his way around before enthusiastic fans in 1987 before winning his last major a year later. Lee Westwood was very strong in 1998 as I watched him play the first 36 holes while paired with Tom Watson and Tiger Woods.
- - The head greenskeeper in 1987 said the greens at Olympic are like a Chinese newspaper: "tough to read." The new bent grass greens looked far more consistent and impeccable yesterday, but yesterday on those small surfaces I saw far more 3 putts than I did putts being holed from 12 feet, 20 feet, etc.
- - I'm a U.S. Open geek, and in 1987 I immediately embraced Olympic as one of my favorite U.S. Open venues, and it definitely starts with the camber of the fairways. And it isn't just the reverse cambers on the tee shots (and the second shots) on holes like No. 5 and No. 9 and No. 17 and No. 2 (I love watching the pros miss that fairway with an iron off the tee on that hole, but I miss the claustraphobic feel that came from the big tree on the right that is no longer there) and No. 4, but also the favorable cambers that give you speed slots on holes like No. 1 and No. 10 and No. 6 and even No. 16, that just make it a joy to watch the best golfers in the world trying to hit the shots that present themselves, with appropriate consequences for failing to do so. Brilliant stuff.
- - Anyone who has played golf on the California coast knows that heavy Pacific breezes are never far away.
- - If Geoff Shackelford is surprised at the light rough, I'm surprised at his opinion. Peter Hanson bounced 2 +2 +2 = 6 balls in the rough to the left of the 11th green yesterday and drew 5 atrocious lies that all required different and funky swings to chop out, and he muffed the one shot that found a good lie, and netted only one good shot out of the six. The ball sits up in the rough at Medinah, but that is not the case at Olympic, and is juicy enough all over the course to not have or really need the next level of graduated rough. The rough is bad news and worthy of any U.S. Open test.
- - Mike Davis will be his usual fair self in moving about tees and pins during the week (#16 is one of the great Par 5s in the world from the 1998 tee and doesn't need a new back tee, while the new tee on No 5 maintains the integrity of a great hole; one look at No. 8 and I think it's obvious it is now a tremendous hole at 200 yards, playing way better than the effort Nicklaus produced with No. 5 at Pebble Beach) . . . But Rory went 16 under last year, and I don't think Mike Davis will mind seeing even par being a top shelf round this year. The odds are very, very strong that there isn't enough fog and damp air on the California coast in June to hinder the U.S.G.A. from dialing up exactly the firm and fast greens they want for their championship. Back to back birdies will be a huge charge, with double bogies lurking everywhere. The players will be worn out from the grind come Sunday, the way a U.S. Open is supposed to be.
- - Casey Martin was here in 1998, a chapter in golf which spawned the best thing I've ever written: "Casey Martin claims entitlement to define the parameters of his crucible; to substitute the grind of his disability for the grind of the ancient game. That is the context and the crux of the matter reduced to a single sentence, and this I know: That is not golf." . . . Casey Martin has also found his way back to Olympic this year. After arriving at the airport yesterday, I rushed to the course to meet my entourage at 2:00 p.m. at the clock by the first tee, in order to spend just a few late hours at the course; no surprise at all to me that the third golfer I saw yesterday, and the first one I recognized, was Casey Martin.
- - On four different occasions yesterday I crossed paths with Baldwin (Matthew) playing by himself, and he hit a few nice chips, but the rest of the bad to worse exhibition I saw from him has me committed to opposing him in whatever matchup I can find for Thursday.
Bottom line:
- - Even par will be a great score, and I'm leaning toward it being good enough to win.
- - My Absolute Best Bet of the Week: When the lines come out, I will blindly be taking "Over" with virtually or literally every player on their first round score (whether 70' or 72', etc.). And I am personally familiar enough with the weather in San Francisco in June to know that I do not need to look at any forecasts, as I know it would have 0% chance of changing my mind about my Best Bet.
Outrights (1/4 for 1-2.3-4-5-6):
Tiger Woods(6/1) e.w.
- - Insurance against. And the difficulty this week is a huge boost to the chances of this 3-time champion.
Lee Westwood (12/1) e.w.
- - I was hoping he was about to slip in under the radar, and then he went and won last week, when I should have been betting on him, but I was farr too busy and distracted to gat in any nplays on the European Tour.I think Olympic gives a good vibe for the Europeans. Finding fairways, and shaping shots that miss right are assets at Olympic, and keeping pace with hot putters holing putts from all over is not likely to be the task at hand this weekend. If he can get through the first 71 holes, I actually would cue up Westwood as one of my first choices to navigate the home hole this weekend.
Justin Rose(33/1) e.w.
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Hunter Mahan(40/1) e.w.
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Ryo Ishikawa(33/1 and 1/4 for 1-2-3-4) for Top ROW (Rest of World)
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Kyle Stanley(200/1) e.w.
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Peter Lawrie(200/1 and 1/4 for 1-2-3-4-5) e.w. for 1st Round Leader
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Ryo Ishikawa(150/1 and 1/4 for 1-2-3-4-5) e.w. for 1st Round Leader
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I also have no shortage of long shots and specialty markets plays to play, I'm actually needing to refine and pare them back before posting.
Edit:
- - I'm getting no offers from books on first round scores. Baldwin is matched against Michael Campbell, and I'll stick with a small wager on that. Ryo is not ready to win, but I think he is ready to play well. For the season and in recent weeks, for longshots I have been tracking Cink (not driving well enough), Harrington ("in"), Byrd (despite best play of career, just seems not to have the "Big Boy game" for "Big Boy venues"), Haas (yes and no), Bjorn (I could live with that hunch), Singh (could make a run, but can't see as the winner), Wagner (I could do that one), Levin (U.S.G.A. fits), Oosthuizen and . . . . and a few others. But I'll just add Kyle Stanley (West Coast), and first round hunches on Peter Lawrie and Ryo Ishikawa, and stop holding up my best friend as we head to the championship . . . Really enjoyed being at the baseball game last night for Matt Cain's perfect game . . . I'm always pulling hardest for 5-times a runner-up Mickelson . . . I'l say -2 for the winner, and two players finish under par . . .
GL
