Round 4 play (4pts):
Martin Kaymer to beat Padraig Harrington -125 @ Bet365
He may not have been as impressive as when he was World #1, but Kaymer has been insistent in interviews that he has been "in a decent form for two months, but it hasn't really happened for [him]". With just one finish outside the top-20 since his opening event of the year, he has not been too far from his best and with a current position of 14th, he looks set to continue that run. What was particularly impressive yesterday was that he was three-over-par after three holes and bounced back with six birdies (no one had more birdies than Kaymer yesterday), so he is now only five shots off the lead. With each round lower than the previous one this week, Kaymer certainly has the momentum to make a challenge if the leaders falter. Harrington had just one birdie yesterday and is a shot further back, so it is difficult to see him mounting a challenge. He has also failed to finish in the top-10 on any of the last 10 occasions when starting the final round between 11th and 20th on the leaderboard, so his record when just off the pace is also unsupportive of him making a run today.
[unofficial rd4 system plays: Furyk tb Els -110; Woods tb Kuchar -161; Rose tb Garcia -118; Wi tb Watkins -138; Adams tb Chappell -120; Simpson tb McDowell +100; Jacobson tb McDowell +115; Rose tb Fowler -120; Senden tb Chappell -150; Woods tb Dufner -138]