Ethan Law
CBB Sides
double-dime bet Iowa St. 5.5 (-110) vs Missouri
Analysis:
NCAA UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH!
MISSOURI (11-5) at IOWA ST (10-6)
The scheduling dynamic at play here in tonights Big-12 game between Missouri and Iowa St happens so seldom, that I deemed this play worthy of my first 2 unit play of the basketball season. The first piece of the puzzle was fulfilled when Missouri surprised then #12 ranked Texas 97- 84, sparked by a 14-2 run coming out of halftime the Tigers went on to an easy victory on their home court. Those type of wins where the home fans storm the court always grab my attention because a letdown is almost assuredly to come. Now we find the 2nd and most important piece to this little puzzle, Missouri has a game on deck Saturday at home against #3 ranked Kansas! Can you imagine those kids excitement and anticipation for the chance to knock off what may be the best team in the country, after having the confidence in knowing they can knock out a top opponent like they did last Saturday? Hence we are left with this almost too good to be true sandwich of epic proportions. Lightly regarded Iowa St has done nothing this year to garner anyones attention and Missouri will hardly be motivated or even the least bit excited to make this midweek trip to Iowa to play a game they know in their hearts they should win easily. OK, we have established the situation, now lets look at the technical facts that support this very strong play. I start with this questionwhat exactly has Missouri done on the road this season to make me believe they will not wipe the floor with the Cyclones? The answer, they have done absolutely nothing away from home to merit in any way being a 5 point road favorite. In fact they have played only 3 true road games and have lost all 3! Meanwhile, Iowa State was beaten in their conference opener by 7 points by Baylor. Oh boy! To say the public will be drawn to bet on Missouri in this game would be, to say the least, an understatement.
Iowa State coach Greg McDermott was hired away from Northern Iowa to put this basketball program back on the map. He was well known in the MVC for squeezing the most out of his players and will surely make Iowa State a perennial NCAA tourney entrant given enough time. He will have his team prepared for battle tonight as his 24-6 spread record as underdogs at Northern Iowa suggests. His old team at Northern Iowa showed the affects of missing his leadership last year as they stumbled badly down the stretch losing 9 of their last 12 despite high expectations. You get the point, he is a good coach, period. Though they have played little in the way of non conference competition, they have built up confidence at home by winning 8 of their first 10 home games. Missouri does not exactly have a good history of winning games here either. Indeed, they have won only once in their last 8 visits to Ames, Iowa. Three times they have come here and been favored in those 8 games and not once did they even win the game, let alone cover the spread. I could bombard you with meaningless trends to back this play, but nothing is more important than the HUGE situational advantages in Iowa States favor I have already outlined. Grab the points and watch Missouri fall victim to the unavoidable lure to look ahead to their game against Kansas. Iowa State gets the straight up win tonight as we should easily cash the first two unit play of the season.
PLAY 2* UNITS ON IOW STATE +5.5
OPINION SELECTION ON IOWA STAE +$190
CBB Sides
dime bet Rice 26.0 (-110) vs Memphis
Analysis: PLEASE CHECK OUR FORUM FOR TONIGHT'S 1/2 UNIT PLAY!|
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MEMPHIS (15-0) at RICE (3-12)
Ah yes, finally a contest that is more my style as we are back to taking perhaps one of the most unattractive plays on the board albeit also one of the best of the board. Going into this contest, I want to make it clear, Memphis (15-0 SU & 8-5 ATS) isnt in danger of losing for the first time this season. They take on a Rice team (3-12 SU & 5-8 ATS) that has been plagued by injuries all season. The latest player to be sidelined for the lowly Owls was their starting guard Rodney Foster who suffered a knee injury last week against Marshall. With three potential starting perimeter players out (Chris Hagan and Cory Pflieger also remain sidelined), the Owls continue to fined players to put out on the court. Just last week they added a walk-on in Junior Chris Szalay who will probably see some playing time. Senior forward Paulius Packevicius is the only active player to be score in double figures this season. He is averaging 10.6 points and ranks second in the league in rebounding at 9.5 boards per game. The injuries are a significant reason why the Owls enter this contest on a five-game skid with setbacks to Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Marshall and UTEP. Indeed, Rice's last victory was a 70-65 win over TCU on Dec. 29. In stark contrast, Memphis hasnt lost a game this entire season and at 15-0, they are one of only two undefeated teams in country with impressive non-conference wins over Connecticut, Georgetown and Arizona. Memphis doesn't just beat their opponents they usually do so in grand fashion as they have an average victory margin of 21.5 points and has defeated four opponents by more than 30 points. The Tigers are off two very impressive wins to open Conference USA play as they dismantled East Carolina 99-58 before going on the road to knock off Marshall, 68-45.
On paper this looks contest looks like an absolute blowout. Again their only common opponent Memphis knocked off the aforementioned Marshal by 23 in a 68-45 road win, while Rice was destroyed by the same Marshal team 47-66 at home. We also know that Rice has yet to win a home game this season where they are 0-5 SU & ATS. Given the disparity in the results against the common opponent and also given the fact that Rice is down now three starters one would naturally assume a high line. I knew going into this contest that the line was going to be exceptionally misleading and the books wanted to set this line to get public money pouring in. With that being said, the 26 point number is astronomical, but the books have got what they wanted as tracking sites are showing bets being placed on Memphis at a staggering 9-1 clip. Interestingly, however is the fact that the line has not moved off the number, despite the disparity in action and in at least two shops the line has moved down (against the money) to 25.5. The reason for this (at least in my eyes) is clear. Despite winning by an average of over 21 points per game this season, Memphis has been a completely different animal on the road. On paper, Joe public sees that Memphis is averaging a staggering 82.7 points per game, while Rice is averaging just 55.7! That difference alone amounts to 27 points hmmm and the line is 26 here, interesting odds maker. With that being said, the Memphis offense has averaged only 69.7 points per game on the road this season (a difference of 13 points) and they are shooting just .429. For as bad as Rice appears, they did manage to score 54 points against Texas and they put up 58 at Vanderbilt, and 49 at Oklahoma and they come into this contest averaging 55.7 in all contests. Rice also plays very aggressive on the defensive side of he ball, despite allowing 69.7 points per game. A key stat here is the fact that opponents are only out-rebounding Rice by a narrow average margin of +0.9 boards per game (37.1-38.0). The Owl offense is generating only 55.7 points per game, while allowing 69.7 points a contest. If Rice can manage to hold a similar small deficiency, limit their turnovers (which have killed them the last few weeks) and they can just score under their average, this game will be a very easy cover. Although there is a mired of trends that also favor Rice in this setting I will not bore you with that know. However, for what its worth, Wednesdays have been good to Rice as they are 13-3 ATS in Wednesday games over the last 3 seasons. Hey its Wednesday! Take those points.
PLAY 1* UNIT ON RICE +26
