WORLD CUP 2018

[BASON]

Thanks Penguin.

I think some of my contempt for the US Soccer Federation spurs my dislike of the MLS. I would love for the league to be better, but there is so much about how it is set up, run, etc. that I simply do not like. Most of this is due to US Soccer Federation for which my disdain is well documented on this site. They still have a chance to make a lot of improvements, but I doubt it will ever happen. I like the fact that they are building nice arenas, make it affordable and trying to expand the fan base, but I am so well entrenched in European soccer that I doubt I will come around to actually being a fan. I do like the fact that they are trying to get some interest in the USL as I saw a couple of games getting some TV exposure in the last week. If I were younger and had kids, I would certainly use both leagues to get them interested in the game.

I am on Sweden to advance and +400. Taking a long shot with Sweden 2-0. Just a gut feeling today. My gut has certainly been very wrong before, but England is just too popular a play today.

Will decide second game play after this one.

 

[BASON]

Gut was definitely wrong, kudos to England as they played an inspired game. Sweden put up a fight but just does not have the quality up front to finish. Had the score right, just with the wrong team winning!

I am going to be stubborn and take Croatia +105 in the next one. I keep saying Russia sucks so hopefully I am right one of these times. Seriously, this is a team that would have never qualified for this tournament on their own. The Spain match continues to haunt me as I have no idea what happened in that game. There is precedent for home teams to greatly outperform in the Cup, but if Croatia comes to play, unlike Spain, they should win this game. Also think we may see more than 2 goals here but I am just playing Croatia.

An all European semi-final is exactly what I thought would happen, I just had the one side of the bracket completely wrong!!

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Well, $50 richer from donating plasma (and saving lives!) and also a little poorer from Sweden...so disappointing and all those cute blonds in the crowd were so sad...that's just not right!!

Ok, I put more on Croatia -1/2 and I took the Over (2)...chasing a little bit lol

When you say Russia wouldn't have qualified....does that mean they are worse than Panama...in theory??

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Added a small play on exact score...Croatia 2-0 (+850)

 

[TouchdownJesus]

And just saw where I made $70 for plasma today! They give bonuses every so often...so I had a coupon for $10 and today must have been a $20 bonus day (2nd donation of certain week)...love it!!

 

[BASON]

TD, Europe is by far the toughest region to qualify for the World Cup. I was saying that no way Russia would have qualified if they had to go through the regular qualification rounds versus being exempt as the home country. I think Mexico is the only CONCACAF team that would even have a chance to qualify in Europe and it would not be easy for them at all. The US would never be in the WC if they had to go through Europe. They are lucky they are in the easiest region in the world to qualify (yes, I think CONCACAF is easier than Asia and Honduras proved that this year). Of course this make the US failure to qualify even more pathetic.

By FIFA rankings (which are complete horse shit by the way) they were the lowest ranked team in the tournament. From the outset I said Panama was the worst and I still believe that, but based on paper, Russia is very close. Hats off to them though, they had a great tournament and played very well today.

I just could not get over the hump in this tournament. Very strange one for me as I lost many big plays which is unusual for me. Was saved by a couple others and had a couple good streaks, but I certainly was expecting to do better.

I will post the rest of the tournament, but I rarely play anything big in the last few games. Historically, I simply protect my winnings and start getting ready for league play. Unfortunately, I do not have much to protect this year due to some poor money management, but that is the way I play.

At a minimum, I hope I helped most of you out in some way. Enjoy the rest of the tournament.

 

[BASON]

Tuesday

Belgium +205/Pk +115/BTTS/Ov 2.5 +105

This side of the bracket, unlike the other, more or less went exactly as I expected. I like this Belgium team from the start, picked them to be in the Final, so I am sticking with them here. They are going to give France fits up front. I expect Martinez to keep the same lineup as Brazil and have a similar strategy. Hazard and DeBruyne pose major problems, and while France are very strong up front, they do not have creators in the midfield as good as them. Belgium's counter attack is deadly (I think they could have scored even more against Brazil if they were not simply protecting the lead) so if France is aggressive I think they will make them pay. Belgium has also showed some vulnerability in the back, so I expect France to score also which is why I like the BTTS bet. I will be on Belgium but my best bet for the game is the Ov 2.5. It is plus money right now, so I will gladly take that.


I do not feel as good about the other semi-final but will share thoughts on it later.

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Thanks for the clarification and it has been a fun tournament w a lot of ups and downs!

I was going to stick w Belgium no matter what but I feel a lot better now! Taking the same. Belgium Pick, Belgium ML, and Over 2 1/2

Looking forward to it and I think this is basically for the title but ya never know!

Good luck to us and I will be following your posts a lot more than usual post-WC too. I like your picks but also the friendship and back and forth. Thanks for helping make this WC a really good one for me!

 

[BASON]

Truly my pleasure TD. Love the fact that I had a little part in helping you enjoy the game more. I like the back and forth and the positivity in this forum. There are some good guys in here all trying to help. Its has probably been the most difficult WC to handicap that I can remember and I have been betting it since 1986. Like most other sports, we are starting to get more parity in soccer as well. Certainly makes it very interesting.

The forum is also great for the leagues. I usually just chime in with Pittsburgh Kid and I think it has gone very well. Should be another great season.

 

[BASON]

Did not really like the way this FH played out. There were some good chances, but both are a little more tentative than I thought. Over is going to be tough unless we get an early goal in the 2H. The longer they go without a goal the more conservative they will get. Not much I can do here in the second half. Wish I had a play to hedge some of the over money, but got nothing with a second half line of Un 1.5 -125.

 

[TouchdownJesus]

That match could not have gone much worse and the last several minutes is everything I hate about soccer.

With France, I thought I was watching Duke Basketball w all the dirty shenanigans there at the end. But the bigger deal is soccer's stubbornness to correct any of it. I was complaining 4 years ago and I'll be complaining 4 years from now but its just absurd to watch at worst someone collect a meaningless yellow card to gain an advantage.

Hoping England can find a way to win 2 more games...not a fan of England but I don't like this France team at all. Great tournament but I really no longer have a team I like to cheer for so I'll reluctantly adopt England for hopefully 2 games. I'm still pissed at Croatia for costing me so much money in their last match lol

 

[BASON]

Simply did not go the way I thought. Belgium had plenty of opportunities to step up but they could not produce. Was disappointing as I thought they were finally ready to take the next step. Expected a lot more from Belgium than what we got. France is finally starting to play like the talented team they are.

Gamesmanship is part of the game that is difficult to accept. Idiots like Lalas think it is an acceptable part of the game. I think it is a part of the game that can be eliminated. Soccer is very reluctant to change parts of the game that simply do not work. All of it can be fixed, but they always talk a good game but in the end do nothing. Every sport has parts that are ridiculous, but the governing bodies need to wake up and realize some things need to change. Large fines can change anything. The one thing players care about is $$, so big fines can change a lot of the non-sense. Until then, it is hard to blame them for taking advantage of the rules.

I do not have a great feel for the game tomorrow. I will play the FH draw as that has been money in semi-finals for years and then see if there is a half-time play.

 

[fondet]

Gamesmanship is getting out of hand unfortunately. To me, it?s a big reason why soccer hasn?t taken off in the United States like it should. The perception of the soccer players from Americans is that they are soft. The diving in the box needs to be treated much harsher. These events can absolutely change the game and it is a shame that it has become some a large part of it. The time wasting tactics at the end are also ridiculous. Much of the game yesterday wasn?t too bad, but towards the end there were French players throwing the ball towards the stands and dribbling the ball around when the opposing team should have been able to play the ball from awarded free kicks. It?s really a shame and the American perception of the sport is going to stick around for a long time if changes are not made. It?s unfortunate. Also, Lalas is a waste of air on tv. The other day he was defending some of Neymar?s actions trying to explain that it?s just the way different cultures approach the game. He actually went as far as to call it an ?art?. Couldn?t believe my ears. He?s clueless. I?m ready for some physical premier league soccer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[BASON]

I totally agree fondet, especially that Lalas is an idiot. His comments were ridiculous. Most of the Fox coverage has been bad. I watch more Telemundo than I do Fox. They treated the Ronaldo signing yesterday as an after thought. I do like Tony Meola, he is far and away the best announcer. Not the most exciting but he knows more about the game than any others. You have to go to Europe to get really good coverage. All the US sports outlets do not do a good job.

I am not very hopeful that things will change that much. If they start giving cards and fining players after the games it will have an impact. I have always thought they should change the substitution rules to include a time cut off but I do not think that will happen either. We have been arguing here for days about potential rule changes that could make the game better that ranged from changing or eliminating offsides to reducing the size of the box. Unfortunately, FIFA is more set in their ways than most and is resistant to change.

 

[BASON]

Taking a shot with the Ov 1 in the 2H.

 

[BASON]

Saturday - Third Place

The obvious play here is the over, especially if you use a site where you can buy it down to 2.5. The last third place game Un 3 goals was in 1974! The average since 1990 has been 4 goals per game. No one wants to play in this game, it really is ridiculous. But, players who did not get a chance to play get their moment in the sun and want to impress. There is no physical play at all so it is a free flowing game with tons of chances. Can be one of the more entertaining games to watch. Hard to bet against history here so I will be on the Over.

My gut tells me Belgium will be the more motivated team and I think they have better reserves especially up front with Batshuayi. I think they have the advantage in goal and in the back. England always has much loftier expectations than they have talent on the field so I think they will be the the team that really does not want to be there. Belgium's best finish ever was fourth so I think there is some motivation for this team to finish third and everyone likes being England!

 

[BASON]

As much as I like watching and betting the game, there will always be a part of it that I will never understand. I do not understand how Trippier can be starting this game. He was basically in tears and made his team play with 10 men in the most important game of their lives. Magically, after two full days rest, he is ready to play again. This I do not understand. Obviously the injury was not that bad but he could not suck it up and get back on the field. Furthermore, the manager allows him to play. This I do not understand and it bothers me.

My Dad was my football coach and he used to say "are you hurt or are you injured. If you are injured I will get you an ambulance, but it your hurt please get your ass off my field!! This is old school, but too many of today's players are way too coddled from a way too early age.

 

[DZ]

England not helping our over. They are offering virtually nothing in the way of attack in the 2H. Look beaten down.

 

[BASON]

So no game in 44 years without 3 goals and of course it happens today. Pretty much sums up this whole World Cup for me. Belgium at least won but it just offset the larger over bet. Again, more or less how the whole Cup went for me.

I want Croatia to win tomorrow so I am sure if I bet France -110 this will happen, so that is what I am doing.

Didn't quite go through my whole bank roll for this tournament, but I certainly did some damage. Was hoping to do much better, but that is how it goes. Enjoy the final tomorrow!

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Thanks Bason! I had the same...larger bet on the Over (3) and at least Belgium won to help offset most of that. Really like this Belgium team and wish they were playing tomorrow instead of today but oh well.

My dad was also a football coach but after about 20 years he got out of it and started selling insurance to make more money. So that was in middle school...so by the time I got to high school I had a different coach...but still...b/t my high school coach and being the son of a coach...you definitely know the difference b/t being hurt and injured.

I haven't made my play yet but I really want France to lose but really think they will win...but maybe not in 90 mins. So haven't decided yet. I actually like the over (2) and think France might just run away with it. Again, not sure yet lol

Fondet, agree w what you're saying and I've said a lot of the same. The only thing I can add....I kind of like Lalas and I don't know all of what Neymar did (I've seen a little bit) but people have called things like Dwayne Wade throwing himself into a player or Reggie Miller kicking his legs while shooting or Manu flopping around, etc an "art" or similar and all of it is just sickening to watch.

The French team looked like Duke basketball and it was painful to watch them be rewarded.

On one hand I can see where people say, well if the ref's aren't gonna call it...but at some point you have to have sportsmanship too. If you know the ref won't call you for having a knife on the field. you still don't cut people. Obviously that's extreme and its up to the ref's and rule committees to do a better job but its still really disgusting to watch some of the tactics that are done...and overall, just another turnoff.