WORLD CUP 2018

[BASON]

Tomorrow is a big day that will determine future bets so I am not playing anything for Thursday yet.

I have Sengal +600 to win the group so I will likely play Columbia-110 as a hedge.

I have a very large Panama to finish last bet and a smaller size 0 points play, so not much for me to do there unless I want to hedge out some of that exposure which I am not inclined to do. Looks like most of the teams with nothing to play for have played very strong last games so I am counting on Tunisia coming to play and a draw still has Panama finishing last.

Poland is getting absolutely hammered in the press at home so I think they will try to get a result in the last game. Lots of pressure on Japan here as there are scenarios where they do not advance. I think we may see some goals in this one.

Have no idea what to think about Belgium.England. Will wait to see how the brackets work out, since there are some interesting possibilities that may merit either team wanting to finish second. No reason to bet anything right now.

The only advance play I have made is Spain at -160 because I think that line will only go up. Interesting to see Uruguay getting early money.

 

[BASON]

Disgusting half by Germany. Have no idea what they are doing. Terrible lineup changes by Low. Having a hard time understanding what is happening to this team. The Koreans are taking the game to them. Low has to make a couple changes at halftime to change this game. If not, they are going out. Have to sit back and pray for the 2-0 win, but have to say that I am not that confident after that first half.

 

[Snafu]

why Low keeps fielding ?zil and Khedira ? Those fucking heartless clowns shouldn't even be in this team. There are so much better and willing talents in Germany.

Draxler+Gomez in and mentioned two out


And Low, about time to go. Good thing Arsenal didn't sign him.

I'm actually hoping already that SK wins this with a injury time PK

:rant2:

 

[Crookity]

why Low keeps fielding ?zil and Khedira ? Those fucking heartless clowns shouldn't even be in this team. There are so much better and willing talents in Germany.

Draxler+Gomez in and mentioned two out


And Low, about time to go. Good thing Arsenal didn't sign him.

I'm actually hoping already that SK wins this with a injury time PK

:rant2:

LOL Loew is going nowhere he was just extended another 4 years, announcement was made this morning. :shrug:

 

[BASON]

Goretzka was a huge mistake. Their midfield is completely invisible. There is no team chemistry at all, because this team never plays together. Also, Werner is simply not ready for this level of competition. His inexperience is glaring. Bottom line is that Germany deserves to go home the way they have played the first three games. Just wish is didn't cost me so much.

The irony is Germany could be my total downfall in this tournament. The two loses on them will almost total what I have won the rest of the tournament. My money management has really hurt me this time, but that is the way it goes sometimes. Just sucks that it happens in this tournament.

 

[Snafu]

LOL Loew is going nowhere he was just extended another 4 years, announcement was made this morning. :shrug:

LOL, players sure got that memo


Korea scores empty net i'm laughing so hard :142smilie

 

[jdg226]

LOL, players sure got that memo


Korea scores empty net i'm laughing so hard :142smilie

Anyone have Germany to finish last in the group?:mj07::mj07::mj07:

 

[BASON]

I am so disgusted I am taking a little time off. I need a break. Just unbelievable to me that Germany could not only beat South Korea to advance, but they lose. Big loss, but I would make the same bets every time. Was a truly embarrassing performance for the number one team in the World. Maybe the worst loss in German soccer history. Oh and I was about to place a bet on South Korea +1600 in the second half and didn't get it in. AND I lose my S. Korea las place finish bet. That's a bad day.

I already hit Swiss rather hard and I am hitting Spain hard on the weekend. If Swiss win, I will play Columbia tomorrow but nothing else as I need Panama to lose anyway.

Going to start drinking early today!!

 

[Snafu]

AND I lose my S. Korea las place finish bet.

sorry but.... :mj07:



my day started with 36u loss, shit happens, no one said this would be easy.
as you said i too would make every bet again just as i did.

smells like..... victory

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[TouchdownJesus]

I almost hedged on Germany...even I hedged I would have hedged by betting the tie and not S Korea to win. Unreal...cost me a huge "sure thing" ML Parlay that as usual wasn't worth the relatively small payout...I thought England would screw it up before Germany...that sucked

 

[BASON]

Sure, add some more salt to the wound. One of the worst days I have had in about 10 years. Unreal.

 

[Snafu]

that last place loss was just so absurd, sorry.

i lost ~30u today and it really stings to blow all winnings collected so far and then some.


cheer up, bets come and go. Let's get it back before this fun is over.

:mj06:

 

[Pound4Pound#1]

You wanna talk money management guys?? :shrug: Check this out...

Over the past week I turned twelve bucks into one ninety with the help of you and others went all in on Germany -1.5 :facepalm:

True story :142smilie

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Felt so good about Sweden and yeah, it turned into the worst day of soccer betting I've ever had. Just a huge loss today.

That last goal by Costa Rica...man oh man...I was behind and decided to watch it in slow motion (I do that every so often...watch something "live" in slow-mo)...I was like, yeah...no...yeah....nooooooo

That was brutal...Not sure I've ever seen it before...he blocks it up and off the bar and hits him in the back or back of neck and rolls in....absolutely brutal.

I sort of conceded Switzerland and then they made it 2-1 and that penalty kick ripped my heart out several times over. Awful, awful day.

 

[Cluat]

You wanna talk money management guys?? :shrug: Check this out...

Over the past week I turned twelve bucks into one ninety with the help of you and others went all in on Germany -1.5 :facepalm:

True story :142smilie

I turned 50 into 345 - so I guess we had a good money management this days :00hour

 

[TouchdownJesus]

I had planned to just take today off from betting but I looked at the 2 late games and decided to re-load my account...reluctantly.

I love Belgium and think they have a chance to win it all...and of course we all know Panama is horrible. So I really wanted to bet on Belgium and against Panama...so I did just that.

Won Belgium pick, Belgium moneyline, Tunisia...lost the Belgium/England Over...had a couple close ones but overall was definitely on the wrong side of that one. Still, a really good day and makes me feel a lot better after suck a horrible hump day.

Bason, hope you got some plays for tomorrow. I'll look back and see if you've posted plays already.

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Correction...I mean Saturday. Forgot today was the last day of Group Play and Sat its on to the knockout round!!

 

[BASON]

Good stuff TD. I had a lot on Panama to finish last in the group and to get 0 points so didn't post anything for today. Needed that to come in so it worked out well.

Now the tournament really starts!!

Saturday is tough. I think both will be very tightly played games. France is the more talented overall team, but they can't seem to put it together. I think Argentina will play better now that some of the pressure is off. As most know I am not a big fan of Portugal. They somehow keep winning though. I really want Uruguay to win that game, BUT

Both games are screaming draws right now. I will likely play them both but start with France first and see how it goes. FH draws are also very likely. I do not see more than 2 goals in either game, so no total plays. I will post what I am playing tomorrow.

I played Spain big at -160 a couple days ago. It is up to -175 and I think it will go higher. They are much, much better than Russia. Home turf and crowd will not be enough for Russia. If I see a total of 2 at some point I will definitely be playing the over.

Definitely leaning toward Croatia -110 also. I just do not think Denmark is that good and I think Croatia is very good. Eriksen is a great player but he is all they got. They drew Australia and were lucky to beat Peru. They will bunker down and try to keep this close. That is why Croatia is only -110. Based on talent and experience they should be -150, but Denmark loves to draw. I think Croatia will break through in this one.

 

[BASON]

Saturday

France FH Draw -110
Draw for the game +205
France in ET +850

Portugal FH Draw -120
Draw for the game +190
Uruguay in ET +900


As I have said before I am expecting very tight games tomorrow. I could play this many different ways with some props but I am keeping it simple as I think both games are tough to bet. I would not be surprised at all if France easily handles a very average Argentina team, but I simply do not trust them. I think Uruguay is better than Portugal, but Portugal always seems to pull something out of their ass. Hoping their luck runs out tomorrow.

Obviously the ET props are long shot bets for small amounts. Actually, none of these bets are big at all. Simply some action. My Spain bet will be bigger than all of these put together. If the France game is not a draw, I will add a little more to the next one as I think at least one will be a draw. I will bet them game to game so I can adjust amounts, but wanted to get all my thoughts in one place.

Going to an early Argentina party in the morning so likely will not be posting any other plays. I think my friend bought all the Quilmes available in Delaware for this one, going to be a long hot day!!

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Thanks Bason! It was good to have a day to get away from it.

Not sure exactly how I'll play tomorrow yet but I'll prob put some on both draws and then maybe a little on a side...I may post later tonight exactly what I take. Really appreciate all the info and yes, the tournament starts for real now...although I really like the Group Play b/c its so unique and ties matter.

I tell people all the time...I don't necessarily like ties but I like that there can be ties. That's one thing I miss about college football. I liked that there was no overtime. Of course if you have an actual playoff, you have to have overtime. I love the NFL's current version of overtime and I wish both college and NFL would use it in the playoffs...and I wish there was no overtime in regular season.

Honestly, I think the possibility of ties has always been a fun part of college football, since they have no playoff. Does one team want to play for a tie...or do they want to risk going for 2 etc...its not like I love ties, but it makes things interesting. Just like the group play. It can be the difference b/t advancing or not advancing and a tie may help one where the other needs a win so you get different strategies based off of that. Ok enough rambling!!