2010 World Cup Picks

[GoldenTaint]

ledger: (o)

Pick: South Korea +1' -182 (Argentina), risking 182 to win 100 :sadwave:

why: Probably Argentina wins by one. I think that's the likeliest outcome, and if it happens, I get paid. If not, I think it's likelier it's a draw, or even an outright win for Skor, than Arg winning by multiple goals.

[Strategy note: whereas in football I'd in most cases prefer to give up points to get odds on, in soccer I go the other way: I don't care so much what price I pay as long as I feel I have no more than about a 10-15% chance of losing. I would definitely be taking S. Korea +2, rather than 1.5, if my outs had it, even if I had to pay -300. I don't think there's even a 10% chance Argentina wins by more than 2 goals, whereas I think there's about a 25% chance it wins by 2 goals. I think the very fact that (5 dimes) isn't offering the +2 at any price is telling. I think these Asian sides are a little stronger mentally than they used to be. They're not as easy to intimidate, and they have more speed and physical presence than in years past. South Korea in particular.]

 

[GoldenTaint]

Pick: South Korea +2 -442 (Argentina), risking 884 to win 200 :sadwave:

Note: Well, now the line is available, so I'll take it. As said above, I don't think there is more than a 10% chance of losing this, whereas the return is more than 20%.

 

[GoldenTaint]

Misread it completely, paid a huge price.

ledger: (-1066)

 

[Riskbreaker]

Dude trust me, we've all been there. You'll get it back.

Most newcomers would disappear, but you take it like a man. Good for you.

GL

 

[GoldenTaint]

Dude trust me, we've all been there. You'll get it back.

Most newcomers would disappear, but you take it like a man. Good for you.

GL

Thanks, Riskbreaker, I appreciate it.

 

[GoldenTaint]

ledger: (-1066)

Pick: Nigeria pk (Greece) -197, risking 394 to win 200 :sadwave:

why: Don't think Greece can do better than draw. Don't think Greece can will score more than one goal max, and do think Nigeria will score one goal at least.

 

[GoldenTaint]

ledger (-1460)

Pick: Germany pk (Serbia) -435, risking 435 to win 100 :sadwave:

Pick: Germany corners -1/2 (Serbia) -210, risking 210 to win 100 :0074

why: i think there is very little chance germany loses outright to serbia, but about 1/3 the match is a draw. key for me is not to lose money if a draw. have to figure serbia plays a little better than last time, germany a little worse. still, germany is better in the attack, and i suspect germany will win this outright and also have more corner kicks than serbia. both germany and serbia had 4 corners in the first game. seems a little odd given germany's utter domination of its match, but i expect this game to be tighter, and germany to have more possession and corners than serbia.

 

[GoldenTaint]

ledger: (-1795)

Pick: USA pk (Slovenia) -189, risking 567 to win 300 push

Pick: USA -1/2 corners (Slovenia) -148, risking 444 to win 300 :0074

why: Same reasoning as Germany. US might well tie, don't think it will lose, think it's likelier to win. good return with not too much risk.

 

[GoldenTaint]

Disgusting Germany result. Won the corners easily, Germany 7-1, as expected. Did not see 1h, apparently ref was handing out cards like candy. Germany down 1-0 dominated action in 2h, with Podolski missing a penalty kick, first miss for Germany (in regular time) since 1974, cost me dearly. I'm sure Germany will rebound next game, and will be on it.

 

[GoldenTaint]

push on US thanks to ref blowing call; win corners for +300

ledger: (-1495)

 

[GoldenTaint]

ledger: (-1495)

Pick: Netherlands -204 (Japan), risking 612 to win 300 :0074

Pick: Netherlands-Japan 3 under -250, risking 250 to win 100 :0074

Pick: Netherlands -1/2 corners (Japan) -400, risking 400 to win 100 :sadwave:

why: all three bets are based on Japan not scoring or scoring one goal at most. I think Japan can play well enough to keep Ned under four goals, and I don't think Japan will score at all. Ned should have the ball more of the time, most of the play should be in Japan's area, Ned should get most of the corners off his attacks. The fact that there is a huge difference between pk (-700+ and Ned -1 -120) tells me there is a very good chance Ned wins this 1-0. If that happens, I want the money, so I am willing to pay -204 to profit from that outcome.

 

[GoldenTaint]

ledger: (-1495)

Pick: Denmark +1 (Cameroon) -597, risking 597 to win 100 :0074

Pick: Denmark-Cameroon 3 under -390, risking 390 to win 100 PUSH

why: see a low-scoring game. denmark not losing by more than one. much likelier it's a draw or denmark wins by one.

 

[GoldenTaint]

ledger: (-1395)

Pick: Slovakia +1 (Paraguay) -291, risking 582 to win 200 :sadwave:

Pick: Slovakia-Paraguay 2' under -178, risking 356 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Slovakia +1/2 corners (Paraguay) +110, risking 200 to win 220 :0074

why: no great difference in quality of sides, appears to be a perfectly average game, which suggests something in the 0-0 to 1-1 range. i give a slight nod to slovakia incentivewise (pissed after yielding last-second goal to new zealand, whereas paraguay had to be pleased tying italy) but doubt paraguay +1 is a loser either. this game is the blehs against the mehs. should be full of what i call blatch, a made-up word for indeterminate play.

 

[GoldenTaint]

ledger: (-1557)

[placed at halftime of New Zealand-Italy]

Pick: New Zealand-Italy 4 under -383, risking 766 to win 200 :0074

 

[GoldenTaint]

ledger: (-1357)

Pick: Brazil -132 (Ivory Coast), risking 264 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Brazil -1/2 corners (Ivory Coast) -203, risking 406 to win 200 :0074

Pick: Brazil wins and Ivory Coast no goals +176, risking 200 to win 352 :sadwave:

why: very reasonable price for Brazil. Ivory Coast is overrated. as for incentive, the fact that a tie is good enough here for Brazil is neutralized by its desire to score a couple after being thwarted, somewhat, by North Korea. i think brazil wins this 2-0 or 3-0.

 

[GoldenTaint]

ledger: (-1157)

Pick: Team Total Portugal under 2 -150, risking 450 to win 300 :sadwave:

why: for this to lose, portugal has to score three goals, and from what i've seen of both teams, i don't see that happening. i think it's a lot likelier that portugal scores 1 or 0 goals than 3 or more. i would not at all be surprised to see north korea draw or win this game outright, but in any case, i dont see north korea letting in three goals, and would be surprised if they let in two.

 

[GoldenTaint]

Pick: North Korea +900 (Portugal), risking 100 to win 900 :sadwave:

Pick: North Korea-Portugal to draw +370, risking 100 to win 370 :sadwave:

Pick: North Korea +1' (Portugal) -145, risking 435 to win 300 :sadwave:

why: if North Korea can score on Brazil, they sure as hell can score on Portugal. By contrast, if Portugal can't score on Ivory Coast, it's sure as hell possible they don't score on North Korea

 

[GoldenTaint]

ledger: (-2242)

 

[GoldenTaint]

Pick: Chile -1/2 corners (Switzerland) -151, risking 755 to win 500 :0074

why: given switzerland's proclivity for defense and chile's for attack, i expect chile to have a couple more corners.

 

[GoldenTaint]

[HT]

Pick: Chile-Switzerland under 2 -338, risking 676 to win 200 :0074

why: switzerland down a man. might end up 1-0 either way, or a draw, but no more than 10% chance there are three goals scored in 2h.