2010 World Cup Picks

ninosaturnino

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Pick: Germany -135 (Uruguay), risking 935 to win 700

why: Mueller back, nothing to lose, Uruguay has given up huge unrealized chances, Germany will cash them in, and this line will only get worse until the game Saturday.

Golden, i never like to come and tell someone their play is wrong, just gonna give you my 2 cents...

Germany has nothing to lose, you're right, but they're a young team that knows will have more opportunities in next WC's...Uruguay is an old team that was half corner to make a 50 year history for their Nation, a third place will be everything to them...they are warriors as u have seen, and they're also getting Suarez back and one midfielder and defender that where key players off against Holland...more valuable than Mueller himself for the team....the line should be at -115, -110 for a 3rd place that no one wants to play...usually....Germany is used to Finals...as i said my two cents hermano...

BOL with your decision....:toast:
 
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GoldenTaint

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Golden, i never like to come and tell someone their play is wrong, just gonna give you my 2 cents...

Don't worry about that, I'm not one of these sensitive types.

Germany has nothing to lose, you're right, but they're a young team that knows will have more opportunities in next WC's...Uruguay is an old team that was half corner to make a 50 year history for their Nation, a third place will be everything to them...they are warriors as u have seen, and they're also getting Suarez back and one midfielder and defender that where key players off against Holland...more valuable than Mueller himself for the team....the line should be at -115, -110 for a 3rd place that no one wants to play...usually....Germany is used to Finals...as i said my two cents hermano...

BOL with your decision....:toast:

You could be right, and I may be wrong.

My read is, to flesh it out, last world cup schweinsteiger and germany destroyed portugal in the third place game. I do expect to schweini to be LESS motivated this game, but the other hotshot 20-year-olds will be like he was then, super fired up, this is all still new and exciting to them (khadira, ozil, mueller, kroos etc). So, i think the incentive is strong for both sides. the difference, imo, is that germany is just plain better. i have not been real impressed by uruguay. imo, there is some danger of a 1-1 tie, but i i think there's a very good chance uruguay doesn't score at all, and a good chance germany is back to scoring multiple goals. it looked to me like uruguay was lucky to escape in its earlier matches. it gave up many solid but unrealized opportunities. i think germany will cash them in. anyway, we'll see...
 

ninosaturnino

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i do think in any other game Germany is far better, young excellent good players....man I was amazed this game how you make a change and put in Kroos to change and speed up your team! his only 20 years!!! and you're counting on him in a Semifinal game in WC....it's gonna be a good game my friend, BOL!
 

GoldenTaint

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Pick: Germany -135 (Uruguay), risking 935 to win 700 :0074
[copied from above]

Pick: Germany to win 3rd place (Uruguay) -215, risking 860 to win 400 :0074

Pick: Germany -1/2 corners (Uruguay) -175, risking 525 to win 300 :0074 (12-6)

why: history says this will be an open game with lots of scoring. germany is better than uruguay. both teams are motivated, in my judgment. germany should have more of the attack, hence more goals and corners.

POST-analysis: won them all but had real risk on germ winning in regulation. only pissed that didn't bet on over 9' corners, but had got burned 2x this tournament on 9. the over 13' corners was something like +240 and this covered easily. the thing to remember for next time is that these 3rd-place games are far more open than the lines reflect, so it is likely corners and totals will sail over next time too.

ledger: (+26)
 
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spartan

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Just so you know Klose, Podolski, Nueuer,Lahm not starting but that doesn't mean they don't want to win.
Good luck will be looking for Deutchland to take the bronze :00hour :toast:
 

spartan

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GERMANY was golden today and nobody can say they were tainted today :142smilie
Nice to kick the bookie in the nuts Mr GT :00hour :0074
 

GoldenTaint

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GERMANY was golden today and nobody can say they were tainted today :142smilie
Nice to kick the bookie in the nuts Mr GT :00hour :0074

Yes indeed, best team to watch of the tournament. I bet they really regret not charging harder against Spain. Still, that was the third straight huge game in the last three cups when one of their main guys was out due to cards.
 

flapjack

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Pick: Germany -135 (Uruguay), risking 935 to win 700 :0074
[copied from above]

Pick: Germany to win 3rd place (Uruguay) -215, risking 860 to win 400 :0074

Pick: Germany -1/2 corners (Uruguay) -175, risking 525 to win 300 :0074 (12-6)

why: history says this will be an open game with lots of scoring. germany is better than uruguay. both teams are motivated, in my judgment. germany should have more of the attack, hence more goals and corners.

POST-analysis: won them all but had real risk on germ winning in regulation. only pissed that didn't bet on over 9' corners, but had got burned 2x this tournament on 9. the over 13' corners was something like +240 and this covered easily. the thing to remember for next time is that these 3rd-place games are far more open than the lines reflect, so it is likely corners and totals will sail over next time too.

ledger: (+26)

NICE!!!!!!!!!

Well done and a great WC for you.
 

GoldenTaint

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NICE!!!!!!!!!

Well done and a great WC for you.

Eh, back to profits after digging out of two deep holes, that's about all i can say at this point. But I do expect to be in the black moving forward, and will start a new thread after the cup. And hopefully make some money on the game today.
 

GoldenTaint

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ledger: (+26)

Pick: Netherlands-Spain goals scored in SECOND half -195 (first half), risking 780 to win 400 PUSH

why: the only real danger of this losing is if both sides score in the 1h, which in my view is a lot less likely than the 2:1 price here. if there is 0 or 1 goals in 1h, i think this bet is almost surely no worse than a push. this is the WC final. a team down a goal in the 2h will do anything to equalize, which will result either in a goal for itself or for the other team on the counter attack.
 
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GoldenTaint

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Pick: Spain -1/2 corners (Netherlands) -190, risking 760 to win 400 (5-5) (8-6 in extra time) REVISED: :0074 (book has graded this a win and not changed over 24 hours, so i will treat it that way)

Pick: Spain-Netherlands corners 9' over -138, risking 690 to win 500 :0074

why: same reasoning as always: spain will have more of the possession and attack, which usually leads to more corners. have to believe this game will loosen up early or late, and there will be 10+ corners

ledger: (+926)

[FINAL POST IN THIS THREAD - HAVE STARTED NEW ONE FOR POST-WORLD CUP PICKS]
 
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GoldenTaint

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Odd...5dimes has the corners marked as a win. Corrners were 5 apiece in regulation time. In extra time, Spain won them 8-6. I'm not positive, but I was pretty sure the bet was only for 90 minutes. This would not be the first time 5d has made a mistake on a soccer prop and had to go back and correct in later. I have another prop (not posted here) that I believe is a win, but they have graded as a push. Just going to wait 24 hours and see if they adjust things.

Someone let me know if you know better than I what's going on.
 
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