Only need Spain to get 5 corners. I'm more sure about that than I am Spain winning. In fact, if Spain gets down, even better for it getting >5.
2010 World Cup Picks
- Thread starter GoldenTaint
- Start date
ledger (-456)
Pick: Netherlands-Brazil FIRST HALF 1 under -170, risking 340 to win 200 PUSH
Pick: Netherlands-Brazil 2 under -101, risking 404 to win 400 :sadwave:
Pick: Netherlands +1/2 corners (Brazil) +138, risking 200 to win 276 :sadwave: (4-8)
why: don't think this will be a super fast start. if this isn't a push, i think it's likelier to be a win. See this as much likelier a 1-0 or 2-0 game than 2-1 or 3-2. Brazil is a little more defensive than at other times, think this might lead to a lower score and possibly a loss on corners
ledger: (-1060)
Pick: Netherlands-Brazil FIRST HALF 1 under -170, risking 340 to win 200 PUSH
Pick: Netherlands-Brazil 2 under -101, risking 404 to win 400 :sadwave:
Pick: Netherlands +1/2 corners (Brazil) +138, risking 200 to win 276 :sadwave: (4-8)
why: don't think this will be a super fast start. if this isn't a push, i think it's likelier to be a win. See this as much likelier a 1-0 or 2-0 game than 2-1 or 3-2. Brazil is a little more defensive than at other times, think this might lead to a lower score and possibly a loss on corners
ledger: (-1060)
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Wimbledon
Pick: Nadal -153 (Murray), risking 612 to win 400 :0074
Pick: Nadal-Murray 42' games under -130, risking 260 to win 200 :0074
why: a stronger will at a very cheap price. history says murray cracks and this is wrapped up in no more than four sets, so it probably goes under
ledger: (-460)
Pick: Nadal -153 (Murray), risking 612 to win 400 :0074
Pick: Nadal-Murray 42' games under -130, risking 260 to win 200 :0074
why: a stronger will at a very cheap price. history says murray cracks and this is wrapped up in no more than four sets, so it probably goes under
ledger: (-460)
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Pick: Uruguay pk (Ghana) -275, risking 825 to win 200 PUSH
Pick: Uruguay advances (Ghana) -229, risking 687 to win 300 :0074
Pick: Uruguay-Ghana 3 under -369, risking 738 to win 200 :0074
why: believe uruguay will score at least one, and don't think ghana will score at all. if i'm wrong i push, and it's a lot likelier i'll win or push than lose. only worry here is that refs aid African team. ghana has been strong, but it seemed passive and at times unfocused against usa, and usa very definitely should have won. dont think uruguay will make same mistakes.
Pick: Uruguay advances (Ghana) -229, risking 687 to win 300 :0074
Pick: Uruguay-Ghana 3 under -369, risking 738 to win 200 :0074
why: believe uruguay will score at least one, and don't think ghana will score at all. if i'm wrong i push, and it's a lot likelier i'll win or push than lose. only worry here is that refs aid African team. ghana has been strong, but it seemed passive and at times unfocused against usa, and usa very definitely should have won. dont think uruguay will make same mistakes.
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- Jun 23, 2008
- 14,004
- 3
- 0
Thanks, Ghost Kid! Should have bet more than I did. Thought long and hard about taking Uruguay on corners, didn't, and they dominated. Anyway, good to be in the black.
ledger: (+40)
ledger: (+40)
Wimbledon
Pick: S. Williams -585 (Zvonareva), risking 585 to win 100 :0074
Pick: S. Williams sets won -1' (Zvonareva) -175, risking 350 to win 200 :0074
why: don't have much doubt that serena wins, sets are way to cut down the high price
ledger: (+340)
Pick: S. Williams -585 (Zvonareva), risking 585 to win 100 :0074
Pick: S. Williams sets won -1' (Zvonareva) -175, risking 350 to win 200 :0074
why: don't have much doubt that serena wins, sets are way to cut down the high price
ledger: (+340)
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Pick: Germany-Argentina corners 9' over -140, risking 840 to win 600 :sadwave: (4-5)
Pick: Germany +1/2 goals (Argentina) -140, risking 700 to win 500 :0074
why: corners: both quarter finals have gone over in corners, and both arg and germ have averaged 10+ corners in their cup games to date. thought about taking argentina -1/2, but both teams are great attackers and so i think the over for both combined is the better option, reasonable price. as for germany +' goal, i would prefer to take germany +1 at -342 because i think it has extremely small risk of losing (my usual strategy in soccer: extreme low risk of losing in exchange for low return) but in this case i'm going to depart from usual strategy because the return is so much better. there is a very real risk germany loses by a goal, but i think the upside of their winning or pushing in 90 minutes is well worth the -140 price.
PRE-analysis: on paper this figures to be the most exciting match of the cup, including the semis and finals. the papers talk up arg's revenge motive, but in fact, germany's revenge motive is stronger, as arg started the 2006 post-game fight that led to frings's banning from the next game, after italian tv helpfully tipped off FIFA to his retaliatory punch. just have to laugh at the experts saying germany has an average side here. yeah, i'm going to go with my eyes on that one. argentina could win here, but they are just as likely to lose and get red-carded and start a fight as win. hopefully there will be exciting two-way attacking, but it's very possible this will be 0-0 until late, since everyone expects offense, hence am staying off the total. either way there should be a fair number of corners, particularly if one side gets down and is forced to up the pace.
HT notes: very odd 1h. germany scores in the first few minutes, arg plays super slow the rest of the way. there were six corners even with an extremely slow pace. it seems to me that germany's only real risk of losing is NOT attacking. klose missed another great chance. he could easily have 8 goals with all his easy misses. ref gives an undeserved yellow to the scorer, mueller, putting him out of semi.
Pick: Germany +1/2 goals (Argentina) -140, risking 700 to win 500 :0074
why: corners: both quarter finals have gone over in corners, and both arg and germ have averaged 10+ corners in their cup games to date. thought about taking argentina -1/2, but both teams are great attackers and so i think the over for both combined is the better option, reasonable price. as for germany +' goal, i would prefer to take germany +1 at -342 because i think it has extremely small risk of losing (my usual strategy in soccer: extreme low risk of losing in exchange for low return) but in this case i'm going to depart from usual strategy because the return is so much better. there is a very real risk germany loses by a goal, but i think the upside of their winning or pushing in 90 minutes is well worth the -140 price.
PRE-analysis: on paper this figures to be the most exciting match of the cup, including the semis and finals. the papers talk up arg's revenge motive, but in fact, germany's revenge motive is stronger, as arg started the 2006 post-game fight that led to frings's banning from the next game, after italian tv helpfully tipped off FIFA to his retaliatory punch. just have to laugh at the experts saying germany has an average side here. yeah, i'm going to go with my eyes on that one. argentina could win here, but they are just as likely to lose and get red-carded and start a fight as win. hopefully there will be exciting two-way attacking, but it's very possible this will be 0-0 until late, since everyone expects offense, hence am staying off the total. either way there should be a fair number of corners, particularly if one side gets down and is forced to up the pace.
HT notes: very odd 1h. germany scores in the first few minutes, arg plays super slow the rest of the way. there were six corners even with an extremely slow pace. it seems to me that germany's only real risk of losing is NOT attacking. klose missed another great chance. he could easily have 8 goals with all his easy misses. ref gives an undeserved yellow to the scorer, mueller, putting him out of semi.
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ledger: (0)
POST-analysis: second time burned by 0 corners in last 15-20 minutes, real bad beat, but great to see germany blow away gutless argentina. if argentina had scored first, germany would have responded like dogs with torches tied to their tails trying to equalize, but argentina never showed fighting spirit at any point during the game.
POST-analysis: second time burned by 0 corners in last 15-20 minutes, real bad beat, but great to see germany blow away gutless argentina. if argentina had scored first, germany would have responded like dogs with torches tied to their tails trying to equalize, but argentina never showed fighting spirit at any point during the game.
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Pick: Spain -1/2 corners (Paraguay) -390, risking 780 to win 200 :0074 (7-1)
why: spain has all the possession, very, very likely to have more corners, more than enough to justify the high juice
why: spain has all the possession, very, very likely to have more corners, more than enough to justify the high juice
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Pick: Spain -1/2 goal (Paraguay) -240, risking 960 to win 400 :0074
Pick: Spain -2 goals (Paraguay) +300, risking 200 to win 600 :sadwave:
why: don't see this as anything other than what it appears - better vs worse. Small chance Paraguay works out a tie in regulation, but i think the return here is good enough to justify the risk. if spain can get up 1, then paraguay will have to, and most likely will (unlike argentina!) go on the attack, thereby loosening its defense, likely leading to at least a second goal for spain. would put more on this bet except spain has to score 3 for it to cash, and spain has not shown great willingness to keep attacking once it has the lead. only serious danger to these bets is if spain fears to play germany next round and so allows itself to be beaten. not likely, but it does happen
Pick: Spain -2 goals (Paraguay) +300, risking 200 to win 600 :sadwave:
why: don't see this as anything other than what it appears - better vs worse. Small chance Paraguay works out a tie in regulation, but i think the return here is good enough to justify the risk. if spain can get up 1, then paraguay will have to, and most likely will (unlike argentina!) go on the attack, thereby loosening its defense, likely leading to at least a second goal for spain. would put more on this bet except spain has to score 3 for it to cash, and spain has not shown great willingness to keep attacking once it has the lead. only serious danger to these bets is if spain fears to play germany next round and so allows itself to be beaten. not likely, but it does happen
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ledger: (+400)
POST-analysis: spain is good, but their overpassing will put them in danger next round.
POST-analysis: spain is good, but their overpassing will put them in danger next round.
NOTE: oh, i wish these games would never end. they're fun, they're quick, they're not too hard to make money on. world cup? you're a treat. can't wait for germany-spain tomorrow, but at least we get a warm up today.
ledger: (+400)
Pick: Nethlands -1/2 corners (Uruguay) -205, risking 820 to win 400 :0074 (5-4)
Pick: Netherlands-Uruguay 3 under -349, risking 698 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: Netherlands-Uruguay 2 under +108, risking 500 to win 508 :sadwave:
why: i think ned will win, but i dont trust them based on their history. it is quite possible they lose here. on the other hand, i think it's quite likely uruguay doesn't score. so i think this will be a low-scoring match, with netherlands having more of the attack and the possession. both teams have got and given many corners, but i feel ned has a little edge, and that is all we need to cash the corners bet at a very reasonable price. if ned gets behind, the corners bet is almost guaranteed to win. my best guess is this a low-scoring match with ned taking it late, and possibly getting a second when uruguay has to open up. my fear is there will be an early goal leading to wild play, which could hurt the unders. but i think that is considerably less likely. ned 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 are the likeliest outcomes.
ledger: (+400)
Pick: Nethlands -1/2 corners (Uruguay) -205, risking 820 to win 400 :0074 (5-4)
Pick: Netherlands-Uruguay 3 under -349, risking 698 to win 200 :sadwave:
Pick: Netherlands-Uruguay 2 under +108, risking 500 to win 508 :sadwave:
why: i think ned will win, but i dont trust them based on their history. it is quite possible they lose here. on the other hand, i think it's quite likely uruguay doesn't score. so i think this will be a low-scoring match, with netherlands having more of the attack and the possession. both teams have got and given many corners, but i feel ned has a little edge, and that is all we need to cash the corners bet at a very reasonable price. if ned gets behind, the corners bet is almost guaranteed to win. my best guess is this a low-scoring match with ned taking it late, and possibly getting a second when uruguay has to open up. my fear is there will be an early goal leading to wild play, which could hurt the unders. but i think that is considerably less likely. ned 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 are the likeliest outcomes.
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Pick: Netherlands-Uruguay FIRST HALF 1 under -188, risking 376 to win 200 :sadwave:
why: think uruguay comes out cautious, defensive, just wants to get through any initial onslaught and get to half time. then try to snake the game late in the second half.
POST-analysis: terrible goalkeeping. both goals were great shots, but both should have been kept out of net.
why: think uruguay comes out cautious, defensive, just wants to get through any initial onslaught and get to half time. then try to snake the game late in the second half.
POST-analysis: terrible goalkeeping. both goals were great shots, but both should have been kept out of net.
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Newport (tennis)
Pick: R. Ram -142 (I. Navarro), risking 284 to win 200 :0074
why: tail
Pick: R. Ram -142 (I. Navarro), risking 284 to win 200 :0074
why: tail
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halftime
Pick: Netherlands-Uruguay 1-1 +218 (any other result), risking 200 to win 436 :sadwave:
why: think there's a good chance this goes to extra time (bet covers only 90 mins + stoppage)
Pick: Netherlands-Uruguay 1-1 +218 (any other result), risking 200 to win 436 :sadwave:
why: think there's a good chance this goes to extra time (bet covers only 90 mins + stoppage)
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ledger: (-774)
POST-analysis: too much wagered on under. should have simplified. still not sure if it was truly a bad bet, i think most times neither of the 1h goals goes in. corners bet was a lucky win, the price was in fact lousy for the risk.
POST-analysis: too much wagered on under. should have simplified. still not sure if it was truly a bad bet, i think most times neither of the 1h goals goes in. corners bet was a lucky win, the price was in fact lousy for the risk.
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Pick: Germany to advance (Spain) +105, risking 400 to win 420 :sadwave:
Pick: Germany -2 goals (Spain) +1468, risking 200 to win 2936 :sadwave:
why: Germany has played better than spain so far, Germany has a better history in big games. spain has to show more than it has shown so far, and there's no reason to think that will happen. It's quite possible Spain wins, but if it gets down, it's also quite possible it simply disintegrates, which gives a very good chance for push or win on ger -2 for a very considerable return. only thing makes me hesitate about germany bet is that germany has absolutely dominated the last two matches, and most of the time things don't continue in the same vein, particularly once the public gets wind and plops money down on the trend to continue. but even money after what the tourney has shown so far, i have to go with germany.
POST-analysis: difficult to say for sure with big scorer missing, mueller, but it sure looked like germany used the wrong strategy.
ledger: (-1374)
Pick: Germany -2 goals (Spain) +1468, risking 200 to win 2936 :sadwave:
why: Germany has played better than spain so far, Germany has a better history in big games. spain has to show more than it has shown so far, and there's no reason to think that will happen. It's quite possible Spain wins, but if it gets down, it's also quite possible it simply disintegrates, which gives a very good chance for push or win on ger -2 for a very considerable return. only thing makes me hesitate about germany bet is that germany has absolutely dominated the last two matches, and most of the time things don't continue in the same vein, particularly once the public gets wind and plops money down on the trend to continue. but even money after what the tourney has shown so far, i have to go with germany.
POST-analysis: difficult to say for sure with big scorer missing, mueller, but it sure looked like germany used the wrong strategy.
ledger: (-1374)
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Pick: Germany -135 (Uruguay), risking 935 to win 700
why: Mueller back, nothing to lose, Uruguay has given up huge unrealized chances, Germany will cash them in, and this line will only get worse until the game Saturday.
why: Mueller back, nothing to lose, Uruguay has given up huge unrealized chances, Germany will cash them in, and this line will only get worse until the game Saturday.
