ANALYSIS: in reading these threads, don't see much attention to corners. I kind of like these bets, particularly where you can ID a team that you think will win but are nearly certain will control the ball and pace and action. In that case, it is much easier to get tripped up by a freak goal, whereas if you have the corners, the risk is diffused. Betting on corners is like betting the phillies will beat the royals over seven games as opposed to one game. of course, you pay a higher price, but it seems that the risk is greatly reduced. only seen a couple freak corners results out of the first round (where the CLEAR favorite, ie the team favored by more than -300, didn't come thru). in the vast majority of cases where the better team is identifiable, where you can get a good fix on which half of the field the game will be played in, you can be pretty close to 90% sure one side will win the corners. another way to look at it is to look for the side, however good, that packs it in on defense and relies on counterstrikes for offense. japan or north korea are good examples. they might win the game, but they'll still lose the corners because most of the game is played in their half of the field. teams with great technical skill, like arg and spain and brazil, teams that focus on completed passes, are always going to be likely to dominate corners against mediocre or poor teams - to dominate them above and beyond the high price you have to take, typically -300 to -450 range. i dont think the prices reflect the actual likelihood. pretty much the only way you can get tripped up here is a side that is actually TOO dominant (ie, scores a bunch of goals and then kicks back) or that doesn't have the normal incentive to attack/score goals - as per spain today, which very nearly screwed me, only winning corners by one, 4-3 over chile. apart from that, "better" (better passing) more aggressive teams will win corners pretty much as a mathematical function. corners are easier to obtain than goals, so very often even a team that dominates play might not score, whereas almost always it will end up ahead on corners.
