2018-19 Season

[BASON]

Looks like my great run in the Premier League has come to an end. Very surprised by a couple of these results. Will provide more commentary when I have time. End of the summer weekend is a pain in the ass.

Tomorrow

Arsenal -180 - As you know, not my favorite team, but Cardiff blows.

Watford +1 -120 - Looks like a gift given how they have started.

Schalke -130 - Schalke has won the last 10 home games against Berlin. Enough for me, favorite for the day.

 

[BASON]

Adding

Fiorentina -125 - Have a great home winning streak against Udinese going, so I will make a small play on them to continue.

 

[BASON]

Schalke misses a penalty and then Berlin scores. Not getting any freaking breaks the last few days. I think I bet on every team that missed a FH penalty.

And another missed penalty by MU that would have given me the over. And another BS red card.

 

[BASON]

UEFA Nations League

This is the inaugural season of this new Championship. The idea is to eliminate all the BS international friendlies and create much more meaningful games for the national teams. I like the idea, especially for the lower level teams.

All 55 teams from Europe will be divided into 4 leagues by rankings. The leagues will them be divided into groups and play a Euro Cup like tournament. Of course it is interesting as the best teams are in Group A and will create some great games (France, Germany and Holland are in one Group!) as well as semi's and final in June. It is more interesting in that teams are promoted and relegated from the Leagues. The 4 division winners are promoted and the last 4 teams are relegated.

Now it gets even more interesting in that teams can qualify for the Euro playoffs through this tournament. Euro qualifiers will put 20 teams through with 16 going to the playoffs for the final 4 spots. 4 of the 16 playoff teams will be the winners of the Nations Leagues. If that country is already qualified then the next best team gets in. Basically it gives a few teams a better chance to make Euros and lets the weaker teams feel like they at least have a chance (a team in Group D like Kosovo, Belarus, Latvia, etc). The weaker teams all play themselves so they actually have a chance since they will not be getting blown by the better teams. I think it give those teams something to look forward to and a chance to get better. It will also create a lot of competitive games.

There will be a lot of interesting games starting Thursday with France/Germany in Munich. I do think it will be hard to totally gauge the motivation for every team, but pride will at least make most of them interesting. I think some teams may experiment with lineups, but I expect most to field very strong teams. Many players hate the international break especially after the WC, but this at least makes it interesting, which is basically the reasoning behind format. It does not add to the amount of games as they simply replace the friendlies that otherwise would be scheduled.

This should create some interesting betting situations and I will be posting some of the games. I will likely lay off a lot of the lower division games at first until I see how the first few play out.

 

[BASON]

Having some trouble getting these Nations League lines on my site.

I will likely be on France PK and Norway -1 tomorrow and maybe one or two others once I see the lines.

 

[BASON]

France Pk +105 - I can not and will not bet Germany until I see any improvement after their disaster of a WC. I can not find a reason to bet them in this game. Everyone in Germany is negative on them and most do not see them winning this one. I just do not see a reason they will be magically better than they were in the WC. France is by far the better team right now and Germany has no answer in the back for France's speed. I hate betting against Germany but I simply do not think the will win this one if France shows up and I see no reason why they will not.

Slovenia +120 - Simply the better team who plays well at home against a Bulgarian team that struggles on the road and we get plus money.

Norway -1.5 +120 - Thought I would get -1 here but my site waited so long to get the lines up that I missed it. Norway has been playing very well lately so I am sure they think they can win this group. Cyprus on the other hand, has some talent, but typically is a mess on the road. It is a bigger play for me at -1 but I still think they win 2 or 3 to nil.

 

[BASON]

France game sucked. France played not to lose and Germany looked like the WC Germany. Hope the rest of A games go better. Was surprised Slovenia lost but Norway went as advertised. Will keep posting some of these but they are all very small plays. I will also be away this weekend so not sure how much time I will have. Don't like much tomorrow but playing the following:

Serbia -1 -120 - I just think Lithuania is bad so if Serbia comes to play they should easily handle them. They are better than the C group, but it is also a great way for them to get to Euro.

Faroe Islands -125 - Only making this play because I do not ever remember the Faroe Islands being minus money against anyone ever. Seriously, never, so you have to bet it, right?

 

[Crookity]

France Pk +105 - I can not and will not bet Germany until I see any improvement after their disaster of a WC. I can not find a reason to bet them in this game. Everyone in Germany is negative on them and most do not see them winning this one. I just do not see a reason they will be magically better than they were in the WC. France is by far the better team right now and Germany has no answer in the back for France's speed. I hate betting against Germany but I simply do not think the will win this one if France shows up and I see no reason why they will not.

Slovenia +120 - Simply the better team who plays well at home against a Bulgarian team that struggles on the road and we get plus money.

Norway -1.5 +120 - Thought I would get -1 here but my site waited so long to get the lines up that I missed it. Norway has been playing very well lately so I am sure they think they can win this group. Cyprus on the other hand, has some talent, but typically is a mess on the road. It is a bigger play for me at -1 but I still think they win 2 or 3 to nil.

Nice hit on Norway! Cyprus is horrid lol watched the first half of that one. I will take a look at Serbia.

 

[Snafu]

Faroe Islands -125 - Only making this play because I do not ever remember the Faroe Islands being minus money against anyone ever. Seriously, never, so you have to bet it, right?

ahem... their last home matches vs Liechtenstein (-156) and Andorra (@home -188, @away -175)
but i guess you meant actual soccer teams :mj07:

from betting view i like these not so soccer giants playing each other because these are rare matches where they actually have chance to win or at least draw. This means these games go over quite often.
Playing O2 +105 and O2? +170.

Thanks & GL :toast:

 

[BASON]

Shows you what I know. Easy winner though.

Going with Luxembourg +130 today based on similar theory, they are not minus but they are favored. Moldova is bad so I think they get a close win today.

Not much else to like. England never really loses at Wembley but I am staying away from that one.

 

[Snafu]

played
ENG-SPA draw +220
Hungary -? +160
LUX/MLD O2 +110 & O2? +187


thanks and GL :0008

 

[Snafu]

sundays internationals:

Georgia -1 -135 - Latvia
Latvia couldn't beat Andorra and winning this Georgia wins group.
Odds look strangely good so taking this one easy.

France -1 +100 - Netherlands

Denmark - Wales -? +290 and +? -127
one for the odds


GL :0008

 

[BASON]

Ukraine -110

More to come

 

[BASON]

Norway Ov 2 -135 - Not sure why this line is 2. I like it and think a push is worst case.

Macedonia -110 - This is likely for the group and promotion so I like them to win this at home


Degenerate Special

Liechtenstein -190 - Have to be nuts to lay -190 with one of the worst teams in the world, but the line is there for a reason. Similar reasoning to Faroe the other day. Would only bet it if your up this week since it is a lot to lay on a bad team.

I think France wins but not willing to lay money on them. They went through the motions in Germany but my gut tells me they play better today as they do not want to lose at home.

 

[tt boy]

late penalty gets Ukraine the win 1-0 :0074:0074

 

[tt boy]

Going to need a big 2nd half in Bulgaria just to get a push

 

[BASON]

Yeah, cost me a perfect day. Really though Norway would at least get one the way they have been playing. Bulgaria has been a surprise.

 

[Snafu]

push-push-loss-loss :0008


monday,
somehow i like Italy to win Portugal... nothing (except booting ballotelli) backs this
Portugal - Italy pk +133 and -? +250

just a thought, playing small action jackson bet

 

[BASON]

Going to continue to roll with the lower tier teams so starting with

Kosovo -140 - Again, this is a startling line to me, so I will bite once again as they have been right in just about every game at this level.

Sweden -110 - Nice line movement overnight so I will tag along here.


Degenerate Special

Andorra +1 -125 - Kazakhstan is the better team but they are not a good road team by any means and Andorra is tough to score on and likes their 0-0 draws. I will take the goal here at home and for the degenerates that have a couple extra bucks laying around will take some on the +750!!


Montenegro should take care of business at home so if you need further action I could see taking them -1. I tend to agree with Snafu that Italy can get a result to day and tempted to take them +.5 but sticking with the above plays.

 

[BASON]

Sweden blew the game for the sweep. Keep winning with these so will play a couple more for tomorrow even though I really do not like the card much.

Spain -150 - May want to wait til morning to play as this line may go down but need to post now so posting at where it is now. I like the young Spanish team better than the older one and they have something to prove so I like them in this game.

Degenerate Special Number 3

These are 2-0 so far. Luxembourg is -665. Yes, that is right, I said -665. While I find this completely ridiculous I am not such a degenerate as to lay that kind of number on a horrible team. However, the total here is 3. Not sure I see 4 goals in this game to lose this bet. San Marino has scored 0, yes 0, goals in their last 11 home games and Lux has only given up only 1 in their last 5 games. Lux won 4-0 at home, but I can not find a game they have ever won on the road by more than a goal. My guess is San Marino will be happy to play this game to nil as long as they can and if Lux gets up they are happy to play with the lead. Playing Un 3 -120.