2018-19 Season

[Snafu]

Italy :facepalm: looks like it's safe to fade them through this competition.

agree about Spain, surprised that line hasn't moved from -150.

Belgium 1st half -125
Iceland lost their previous match 6-0 and this is Belgiums 2nd match after WC, they beat Scotland 4-0.
Looks like home team has lost it's momentum that took them to WC.

Finland should win, and there is a big "should" in odds but a rare homer: Finland to win -170 x 2
Match will be played quite late starting 21.45 local time, it's dark, raining like hell and first really cold evenings of the fall. Interesting to see how this works out. I doubt we see much goals here, but U2 +107 ?
playing O2 -122.


GL

 

[BASON]

Nice first run at the Nations League. Some interesting games and some money making games in the bottom Leagues. Overall, from a betting perspective, it was profitable and I like this format.

Also loved seeing Asensio shine for Spain yesterday since I have been saying for a while that he needs to start for the national team as well as for Real. He is going to be a phenomenal player.

Wow, basically nothing going on the next two days, so will have to go back to the MLS for a play. My DC boys are adamant that United will be in the playoffs and they have 7 consecutive home games coming up in the impressive Audi stadium. They love them tonight against a Minnesota team that does not look so good, so I will hope they win by at least a goal (no way I am laying 235 in a MLS game).

DC United -1 -135 - Same juice at the Ov 3 so I think I will go with the -1 as I do not think DC will lose. Plus the line seems high to me for a team currently out of the playoffs. Needless to say that this is a very small play since I am by no means a MLS expert.

 

[BASON]

I taped both US games and finally got around to watching them. I was very impressed with their play against Brazil, especially defensively. Yes, they lost, but they proved they could compete on that level. They were terrible in the first half against Mexico, especially in midfield, but did get slightly better in the second half. Overall, I was impressed by their effort and simply by some of the young talent that should be around for many years. Weah, McKinnie, Miazga and Carter Vickers will be starters for years to come as well at Brooks, Pulisic and Sargent. Others, like Adams, Moore, Robinson, Greene, Trapp (sorry Kid but he is slow) and Zardes have a lot more to prove including Steffen in goal. I would say Guzan should still be #1. You need a leader to organize the defense but at least they have a semblance of a defense now, especially in the middle with Brooks and Miazga. I still do not like playing players out of position and I am very concerned about who they hire as a coach. At this point they will not get anyone worth a damn, so I would stick with Sarachan for now and see what they can do in a competition unless a great opportunity comes along. I wrote a while ago that no great coach is going to take this job right now. The players seem to be motivated and responding for now, so let it go. A new coach will want to put his stamp on things and start making changes. Will be interesting to watch, so while I am encouraged by things I see on the field, I still have no faith in US Soccer to make good decisions.

 

[PittsburghKid]

No need to be sorry, i just think he shows good leadership qualities and seems to have the ability to be a quality player. Time will tell But nothing Tony with a difference view from different set of eyes . I missed 2nd half, fell asleep. Long days of work then practice /games wearing me down.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[BASON]

I've gotten into the habit of using the DVR to tape many games since you never know when I will fall asleep. I am a firm believer in you can not watch too many games as it can only help you cap games even more. I freaking hate just about everything about ESPN but I did pay the $5 per month for ESPN+ to have more access to some games. They also have replays available so you can go back and watch games. Been very helpful in Nations League so you can see some of the lower level teams play. They also have mens college games. I hate paying them, but it is worthwhile from a capping perspective for me (also for some college football games).

 

[Snafu]

just one match today for me:

these teams have been playing plenty of O's lately, last two H2H 3-3 and 4-1.
Ilves scores @home and Honka @away, what could go wrong :shrug:

FINLAND: Veikkausliiga
Ilves - Honka

O2? -105
O3 +160
2nd half O2? +333



:0008

 

[BASON]

I'm in, got nothing else to bet on today!!

 

[BASON]

Friday Bundesliga

Dortmund -1 and Ov 3 - I still do not trust this team and hopefully they start their best players, but I really am not a Frankfurt fan right now. They have injuries and serious issues in the back which should lead to goals for Dortmund. Frankfurt had their year last year and was a team I earmarked at the beginning to struggle this year. I think they are in trouble tomorrow. If I trusted Dortmund it would be a big play, but they always see to screw me so just playing it normal.

 

[BASON]

Friday Bundesliga 2

Union Berlin -125 - This looks too easy but I will bite. Berlin is strong home team against a Duisburg team that has yet to score a goal in 4 matches. I always seem to get the Bundesliga 2 line movements wrong, but on paper this line should be at least -150 so I am just betting it now.

 

[Snafu]

FINLAND: Veikkausliiga
Ilves - Honka

O2? -105
O3 +160
2nd half O2? +333

ft 0-1... surprise :facepalm:

 

[BASON]

Got the double in the Dortmund game. Berlin shit the bed. I think I will only be betting Hamburg and Koln in the Bundesliga 2 going forward.

Premier League

Watford +.5 -110/+315 - Watford is getting no respect again and all they do is win. I have seen nothing from Man U that gives me confidence that they can dominate a good team on the road. Lines still setting based on reputation. Sure, they can win, but great value with Watford.

Bournemouth Ov 2.5 -115 - Will continue to play the overs in their games until the lines adjust. They are scoring and likely will not keep Leicester off the board with Vardy back. Plus, Bournemouth home scoring and Leicester away scoring in last 10 support the play.

Liverpool FH Ov 1 -130/Ov 3 Even - Like the double over here. Last year Tottenham won 4-1 at Wembley and they drew 2-2 in Liverpool. See no reason why we do not see a similar game tomorrow.

Huddersfield FH Draw +110 - Do not see a lot of action in this one so will take a shot with FH draw.


Bundesliga

Wolfsburg Ov 2 -140 - Got this in now. I think this line is off based on the past. Yes, both teams are atop the table, but it is early. Wolfsburg has been a surprise and I like what I have seen from them upfront. Berlin is traditionally a more defensive team but they do tend to score 1 on the road. Hopefully a push is worst case here.

Should have one or two more tomorrow.

 

[tt boy]

The last thing we needed in Germany was a scoreless 1st half..half way through the 3rd match and Berlin still hasn't allowed a goal we need 1 more for the push with 20' remaining :scared

 

[BASON]

There were chances in the first half. Hopefully we pull out the push.

 

[BASON]

Forget the push, another easy winner. Wow, another crazy German ending.

 

[BASON]

Was thinking about Gladbach over but every game in Germany went over this morning so I am laying off. Also about Valencia, but I am moving onto college football today as I hit some extra FH bets this morning so not going to push it. Hopefully Watford can pull off at least a draw.

 

[BASON]

Everton Ov 2.5 -120

Wolverhampton line is nuts in my opinion at -140, so I am laying off.

 

[BASON]

Nurnberg is on Fox today!! First time I get to watch them on TV rather than the computer in a very long time. This game is a tough one to bet. Bremen is very strong at home and does not lose often, but they are a bit over valued here at -150. Though about the +1, but I think the Un 2.5 is the better play.

 

[BASON]

Nurnberg battled today and got the draw. Great result for them. Easy over in the Everton game. Just getting started with CL and will have plenty of plays but this one went in today.

Liverpool Ov 3 -135 - Very surprised to see this line at 3 given some of the other high totals out there. PSG has struggled against very good teams on the road but they usually score. I see no way Liverpool keeps them off the scoreboard. Liverpool scored 3 themselves is some of their top CL home games last year. Maybe this looks too easy but I really like Over at 3. Good size play for me.

 

[BASON]

Shakhtar Ev - This is a strong play for me. Shakhtar can play, especially at home. They are atop the league and did very well in CL last year. Hell, they almost beat Roma and advanced in a group with City and Napoli. I do not see them losing this game to Hoffenheim who struggle on the road as it is. Besides Bayern, I think all the German sides will struggle in this competition. I think this line is off and will gladly take the Even money at home. Probably my favorite play in CL this week.

I will post a couple more, but if you are interested in a game just ask. I will make a lot of plays, but I will only post what I consider to be the stronger plays.

 

[BASON]

Galatasaray -110 - Those that follow know I like Turkish teams at home. Here we get a very strong home side against a team that is struggling. Lokomotiv sit in 9th place in Russia and I do not see them getting better tomorrow. This is the most wide open group of them all and I think Galatasaray have a very good chance to advance. To do so, they must win this game. We get the better team at home and another short price. I like this almost as much as Shakhtar.

Porto Pk Even - Porto is the favorite to win this weak group. They are stalwarts in the CL and very experienced and successful in the group stages. While they are not typically a favorite road play for me, Schalke has simply been bad to start the season. They have started 0-3 and frankly have not looked good at all. Now they get a team that is a step up in class from who they have been playing. Again, I definitely think Schalke and Hoffenheim struggle in the CL. Taking the Pk just to be conservative but I think Porto should win this one.


Atletico and Dortmund are tempting on the road tomorrow, but for now, I am laying off. Many strong teams can struggle on the road in this format and rely on their home form to move on. Monaco has not been good at all to start the season and they simply look like a lesser team after selling so many good players. Atletico sometimes though simply looks disinterested on the road. Brugge has been bad in the CL, but I simply do not trust Dortmund on the road. The coach keeps playing with the lineups and its driving me nuts. I have to see the lineup before considering a play on them.

I have placed all the bets above at the numbers posted since I am comfortable with them.