Bason 2019-2020 Season

[BASON]

Typical Euro day. Sorry about Lask Linz. It was a risk, but they were bad and I was certainly wrong about the crowd.

Tried to get the Overs posted in the late games but I barely got them in so didn't get them posted. Turk win carried the day for me as I used them in multiple bets.

Still in a state of shock that there will be no March Madness. What the hell am I going to do for the next couple weeks! I love betting the tournament and did very well last year. I have piles of paperwork I was getting ready to go through to get started. And there will not be much soccer to bet either. Depressing. Guess I will start some of the yard work a little early.

Since I have nothing left to bet on and I assume they are still playing:

Dusseldorf Ev - Mostly a play against Paderborn, but still tough to bet on a team with only 5 wins which is why they are Even at home against the worst team in the league. Lots of rumors that the rest of the season could get cancelled so I would think Dusseldorf is more motivated as Paderborn is done. Just a small play.

 

[BASON]

I need some action, so one play tonight:

Pumas Ov 3 -115 - Two of the better teams in Mexico and two of the four that average 2 or more goals per game, so I will take a shot with the over.

 

[BASON]

Nice win last night, so will try another this afternoon:

Toluca Un 2.5 -115 - Atlas sucks, they have 7 goals in 9 games, so I will take a shot with the Under at 2.5.

 

[BASON]

Bundesliga back in 9 days!!! Let the capping begin. Man, I am certainly ready for this.

 

[jdg226]

Bundesliga back in 9 days!!! Let the capping begin. Man, I am certainly ready for this.

AMEN!

 

[BASON]

Okay, have been giving this unprecedented situation way too much thought, but I keep coming back to my original thoughts. First, the home filed advantage without the fans is obviously gone and this will definitely affect the lesser teams more than the top tier clubs. As such, I think the teams with the better overall talent will shine. Second, teams current placement in the standings will affect motivation more than usual. Teams fighting at the top and bottom have more to play for than middle of the pack teams. It is close to impossible to cap teams fitness and mental state so you have to use the more obvious tools to cap games. I will be leaning to the better teams and staying away from lesser home teams I usually would play as they will not have the crowds to pick them up. This is a big deal in Germany.

Much more to come but two plays are in already:

Koln Ev
Dusseldorf/Paderborn BTTS Yes -150

 

[Crookity]

Okay, have been giving this unprecedented situation way too much thought, but I keep coming back to my original thoughts. First, the home filed advantage without the fans is obviously gone and this will definitely affect the lesser teams more than the top tier clubs. As such, I think the teams with the better overall talent will shine. Second, teams current placement in the standings will affect motivation more than usual. Teams fighting at the top and bottom have more to play for than middle of the pack teams. It is close to impossible to cap teams fitness and mental state so you have to use the more obvious tools to cap games. I will be leaning to the better teams and staying away from lesser home teams I usually would play as they will not have the crowds to pick them up. This is a big deal in Germany.

Much more to come but two plays are in already:

Koln Ev
Dusseldorf/Paderborn BTTS Yes -150

Welcome back, can't wait for some footy albeit a unique version of it Post Corona with empty stadiums, and having to play after such a long lay off. I can't argue with your reasoning so far. I look forward to the rest of the plays. The line on Koln is already starting to move.

 

[BASON]

Thanks Crook, good to be back.

Both lines moved. I added more to the Paderborn BTTS as that is probably my favorite play. I actually think we are going to see a lot of 2-1 type games, so also added:

Wolfsburg/Augsburg BTTS -160

Bundesliga 2, one play, Bochum Ov 2.5 -118. Lines are reflecting lower scoring games but this one should see goals. Smaller bets because much more uncertainty in second division.

The rest of my plays in the Budesliga will be parlays based on the bigger favorites. As I said, I think the better teams should win, so Dortmund, Leipzig, Bayern and Leverkusen. Will likely do them and mix in Koln with another. While excited to get started, I also do not want to go nuts and get behind right away especially given we really do not know what to expect.

 

[BASON]

As much as I anticipated today, I have to say that I was let down. Just not the same without the fans. Did okay, but the BTTS in Paderborn was a bad call. They were simply terrible. They are done and will be a play against the rest of the season.

On Koln tomorrow already and I am on the Bayern Ov 3.25 (I also like BTTS) but I expect Bayern to win rather handily.

I like a lot in the second division but Bielefeld -150 is all I am playing. If this was a "normal" game I would bet this big as there is a big difference between these two teams right now, but given the circumstances, coupled with the play I saw today, I will not break the bank.

 

[BASON]

Thanks for the nice welcome back Germany. A 94th minute goal for the loss and the other blows a 2-0 lead at home. Good to see that some things never changes. Scheisse!!!

 

[PittsburghKid]

Bason 2019-2020 Season

Bason what?s your thoughts on hoffenheim? There?s no home field advantage yet they are only +100 over bottom of table paderborn...


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[PittsburghKid]

Freiburg and Bremen seems peculiar as well [emoji2374]


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[BASON]

Just no real reason to play the Hoffenheim game. Two bad teams and no way to properly cap this game. I know I said Paderborn is a play against but I can not bet on Hoffenheim.

Now, I like Freiburg at + money. I really do not understand this line. Bremen played Monday so on short rest with a very long road trip. There is value in this line and the Berlin line.

 

[BASON]

My plays have more or less been outlined in Kid's thread.

Tomorrow I am on Nurenberg. It is a high risk play given their play at home, but I see this as an absolute must win game for them if they are to stave off relegation once again.

I will be in Hertha Berlin also. Just too much value for me at plus money.

Already on Freiburg for Saturday.

 

[BASON]

Another draw ruined a perfect day. Nurnberg just can not score while Hertha rolled.

Already have Freiburg for tomorrow. Adding Dortmund. I know this is a tough game as the huge Bayern game is coming up and it looks like a classic let down spot. However, they are 4 points behind so they really have to win this game to stay in the race. I think they are the better team so I am taking them -129.

Going with the Bayern FH. Theory here is that they just want to win this game and get to Tuesday so I think they will want to get a coupe early goals and get the game over. I would lay the -220, but I would also play the -1 -110 if you do not want to lay the juice.

 

[BASON]

Adding to Dortmund at halftime (about half my original bet). Do not do this often as it is a greed bet, but they are dominating and I do not see Wolfsburg scoring.

+110

 

[BASON]

Made some money today.

Tomorrow I need Koln/Leipzig to finish off a sizable parlay, so not adding anything, but I would parlay the two if you have no action going. Been back and forth with Schalke, but I just can not bet them, so I will sleep in.

 

[BASON]

Koln is killing me. They cost me big time the first two games.

On Gladbach and Leverkusen tomorrow and will also throw them in with Leipzig on Wednesday. No reason to go agains the better teams right now. Just like I said from the beginning, the top teams have a big advantage with no fans.

I could write pages on the Bayern/Dortmund game but I will spare everyone. I have gotten burned in this game many, many times in the past. This is another great opportunity for Dortmund but they have to win. Bayern on the other hand is fine with a draw. Dortmund certainly has the talent to win and I think Haaland could be the difference maker as he is a true number 9. Bayern is missing their number 10 tomorrow and that will affect their attack, but I think we see more defensive play from them as they look to take advantage of Dortmund's aggressiveness. The big issue for me is the loss of the home field advantage for Dortmund which is one of the best in the world. Add to it that only 3 home teams have won since they came back. Yes, only 3! As such, I am predicting a 2-2 draw in this game. Using the draw in one play and Dortmund +.5 in another.

 

[BASON]

Busy will all this bs regulations on getting restaurants open. Many years from now everyone will look back on how ridiculous all this was.

Hoffenheim Ov 3
Wolfsburg -105

 

[BASON]

Like Bremen in a Pk and the TT Ov 1.5