Bason 2019-2020 Season
- Thread starter BASON
- Start date
The lines are starting to move for sure. I had this circled as an OVER play , the money was going that way, but now is shading heavy towards the under. I try to tell myself not to read to much into money moves because in the end I think it is 50/50 if the line movement ends up going the correct way. With that said, I have learned that in Champions League you cannot ignore massive swings. I played half my wager amount on Over 2.5,3 as I was figuring at worst 3 goals here. If this swings heavy to the Under i will probably stand pat, and not add to the wager. hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm :0corn
Bason, interested in your thoughts here?
I waited on this line as I expected it to come down. I too am a big believer in line movements, BUT, not always with Premier League teams as they tend to get a lot of betting action overnight in CL games. I have to stick to my original thoughts on this game that Chelsea is simply not as good as Bayern nor are they battled tested for this type of game. I am very curious to see who Lampard starts at striker. Abraham is the type of player that can give the Bayern defense fits, but they could uses Giroux's experience. Chelsea will have to play a perfect game in my opinion to win this game, and they have to win to have any chance to advance. I am taking Bayern -109 but not for as much as I originally planned given the line movement. A draw would not surprise me and Bayern would be fine with that, but I think Bayern will take advantage of Chelsea trying to score at some point and I see a 2-1 type game. I considered an Un 3 bet, but I am sticking with Bayern and staying away from the total.
Barca/Napoli BTTS -140 - I have gone back and forth with this game also and the line movement on the total has me a little scared to play the over, but I still like BTTS in this game. Napoli has to be aggressive at some point and I do expect each team to score. My initial thought was the over and I still like it, but I am playing BTTS even though I am not thrilled with the line. BUT, the line is telling as the total got beaten down over night but there was not real change in BTTS odds.
Right now I am loving Real at home tomorrow and trying to find a reason not to!
Barca/Napoli BTTS -140 - I have gone back and forth with this game also and the line movement on the total has me a little scared to play the over, but I still like BTTS in this game. Napoli has to be aggressive at some point and I do expect each team to score. My initial thought was the over and I still like it, but I am playing BTTS even though I am not thrilled with the line. BUT, the line is telling as the total got beaten down over night but there was not real change in BTTS odds.
Right now I am loving Real at home tomorrow and trying to find a reason not to!
Home team momentum, but more draw bets bringing the line down. Same thing happened with Bayern. You see more of that when you have the favorite to advance playing the first game on the road. Juve will play defensive and happily leave 0-0. It is unique to this format and definitely changes the way the games are capped. Juve would be -150 at least if this was just one game.
Well done! I feel fortunate to get the 3 goals in the Chelsea game...I'll take it. Thoughts on city/Madrid total tomorrow? I think I am going back to the well with the Asian total of 2.5, 3 Over as I see at least 3 goals here. You going with Madrid on PK or outright on money line?
- Feb 5, 2016
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Nice hits today, B! No way would I take City tomorrow, so only one other way to go...
Thanks Boys, good day today.
I am definitely on Madrid in a Pk for about half todays winnings. Thought about taking the ML for a smaller amount, but with the winnings today, I am happy to just put it all on the Pk at even money. I think this line is just off. Sure, Real has some injuries and City is focused on CL now that the league is over for them, but this is still the CL where Real is one of the best. Just not buying City being able to win this game in Madrid, so I think we get great value on the Pk line.
Crook, I do not like the total. Usually this would be an over play, but I will wait for the return game. I do not think Real wants to get into a track meet at home. They will want to control the pace and get the win. Nature of the back and back just makes it tough to bet overs in these first games, but I will be all over a few overs in the return games.
I am laying off the Juve game. I like Madrid so no reason to bet this one. Juve looks like the obvious play, but you never know what you are getting with Lyon. They have serious injuries and really are not playing very well in a weak league. Having said that shouldn't Juve be -150 instead of a Pk? Something is just off here. Twist my arm and I would play the Under but I am staying away.
I am definitely on Madrid in a Pk for about half todays winnings. Thought about taking the ML for a smaller amount, but with the winnings today, I am happy to just put it all on the Pk at even money. I think this line is just off. Sure, Real has some injuries and City is focused on CL now that the league is over for them, but this is still the CL where Real is one of the best. Just not buying City being able to win this game in Madrid, so I think we get great value on the Pk line.
Crook, I do not like the total. Usually this would be an over play, but I will wait for the return game. I do not think Real wants to get into a track meet at home. They will want to control the pace and get the win. Nature of the back and back just makes it tough to bet overs in these first games, but I will be all over a few overs in the return games.
I am laying off the Juve game. I like Madrid so no reason to bet this one. Juve looks like the obvious play, but you never know what you are getting with Lyon. They have serious injuries and really are not playing very well in a weak league. Having said that shouldn't Juve be -150 instead of a Pk? Something is just off here. Twist my arm and I would play the Under but I am staying away.
Good luck today with your plays. The line is steaming on the under in the Madrid/City match...will be proceeding with caution.
- Apr 17, 2017
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Nice work bason! I?m with ya on RM today. GL to all!
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Good lesson in money management today and why you should always bank profits when you can. Sorry, not meaning to preach, but in my youth I would have blown all of yesterday's profits on Real today and carried that tough loss with me for a while. If Ramos could jump we win, since he is old we lose. Terrible loss for Real. Definite Under in Juve but do not regret laying off.
No time for to do all of Euro tomorrow. For now I lean to Salzburg, Benfica, Ajax and Celtic. Will try to add some color later.
No time for to do all of Euro tomorrow. For now I lean to Salzburg, Benfica, Ajax and Celtic. Will try to add some color later.
Few for today
Koln +121 - Do not understand this line. Yes, based on the standings Schalke should be favored, but they have not won a game in a long time and Koln is playing very well. Draw is the risk here, so if a +.5 or +.25 play is safer but I will take the plus money at home with what I think is the better team right now.
Chelsea Ov 2.5 - My guess is Chelsea is a little worn out and they have issues in the back anyway. They got crushed by Bayern in CL and Bournemouth is fighting to stay out of relegation and plays better at home. Almost took them at home, but I like the over better.
Mainz Ov 3 - It is a bit of an obvious play, but I am still expecting a bit of a shootout in this one today. Lots of high totals in Germany but this appears to be the best bet as they are the two worst defenses in the league with the exception of Bremen.
Koln +121 - Do not understand this line. Yes, based on the standings Schalke should be favored, but they have not won a game in a long time and Koln is playing very well. Draw is the risk here, so if a +.5 or +.25 play is safer but I will take the plus money at home with what I think is the better team right now.
Chelsea Ov 2.5 - My guess is Chelsea is a little worn out and they have issues in the back anyway. They got crushed by Bayern in CL and Bournemouth is fighting to stay out of relegation and plays better at home. Almost took them at home, but I like the over better.
Mainz Ov 3 - It is a bit of an obvious play, but I am still expecting a bit of a shootout in this one today. Lots of high totals in Germany but this appears to be the best bet as they are the two worst defenses in the league with the exception of Bremen.
Never have done that great in the Cup as it was more of Kid's domain, but here is what I like today:
Liverpool Pk -120
Sheffield Un 2.5
New Castle Un 2.5
I will probably just put this in a parlay since I am not willing to lose much in this tournament and I hate playing Unders.
In Germany, I am playing Bayern Ov 3.5. Schalke sucks right now, but strange things tend to happen in the Cup, so I will stick with the over versus Bayern.
Liverpool Pk -120
Sheffield Un 2.5
New Castle Un 2.5
I will probably just put this in a parlay since I am not willing to lose much in this tournament and I hate playing Unders.
In Germany, I am playing Bayern Ov 3.5. Schalke sucks right now, but strange things tend to happen in the Cup, so I will stick with the over versus Bayern.
