BASON'S NCAAF PLAYS

[BASON]

I love college football so I am going to try to keep this thread going for the whole year. I tend to do much, much better later in the year so I tread lightly early in the season. Had a great year last year so hoping to continue that trend into this year.

I will not do a separate MD thread this year but I should have notes and picks/leans for every one of their games in this thread.

So, let get to it. First play of the year is in:

Illinois +7.5 -124

What has Nebraska done under Frost to be a TD favorite on the road against a decent program? The answer is nothing and Nebraska is getting too much credit in this one for my liking. Frost is on the hot seat this year especially now that they have announced an investigation into the program coupled with the fact that he can not win. They have some solid transfers on offense but the truth is Nebraska football is simply not what is used to be. Also, Martinez has not really proven to be a good QB. Illinois has a new coach and they actually have an experienced team returning especially on both sides of the line. I will gladly take the points with a team that I expect to control the line of scrimmage and run the ball. Illinois won this game 41-23 last year, and while they may not win by that margin again, I do not see them losing by more than a TD.

 

[#cruncher]

I love college football so I am going to try to keep this thread going for the whole year. I tend to do much, much better later in the year so I tread lightly early in the season. Had a great year last year so hoping to continue that trend into this year.

I will not do a separate MD thread this year but I should have notes and picks/leans for every one of their games in this thread.

So, let get to it. First play of the year is in:

Illinois +7.5 -124

What has Nebraska done under Frost to be a TD favorite on the road against a decent program? The answer is nothing and Nebraska is getting too much credit in this one for my liking. Frost is on the hot seat this year especially now that they have announced an investigation into the program coupled with the fact that he can not win. They have some solid transfers on offense but the truth is Nebraska football is simply not what is used to be. Also, Martinez has not really proven to be a good QB. Illinois has a new coach and they actually have an experienced team returning especially on both sides of the line. I will gladly take the points with a team that I expect to control the line of scrimmage and run the ball. Illinois won this game 41-23 last year, and while they may not win by that margin again, I do not see them losing by more than a TD.

Keep up the good work Bason!

 

[BASON]

Thanks Cruncher, you do the same as I always look forward to your insight!

 

[Four Corners]

Keep up the good work Bason!

Congrats on being undefeated so far this season😊. Hopped on a couple of your plays over in soccer forum. Gracias!!

 

[Trucker Gambler]

Great Call here

 

[BASON]

Thanks gentlemen! Same old Nebraska. Have to think this will be Frost's last year, but the truth is that in today's NCAAF environment, Nebraska is a tough recruiting sell unlike the good old days. I think any coach will struggle there.

 

[BASON]

First play for this week is in:

Ohio State -13.5 -120

I typically do not like laying this many points on the road in a conference game, especially for the first game of the year, but I just do not think Minnesota is very good, especially on defense. I see people talking about how many returners they have on defense, but if the returners sucked last year what is going to make them so much better this year? They could not stop the run at all last year and now they open with the best team in the conference. I also do not see this line dropping so I prefer to lock it in now. My only question about Ohio State is how good Stroud is, but even if he is only okay, I see Ohio State wearing them down and covering this game. The rest of the offense is outstanding and they should dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. In the end, I expect Ohio State to win by at least 2 TDs.


Working hard on the Boise/UCF game as that is the other intriguing game on Thursday. Hated UCF under Heupel but I do like Malzhan. I really wish TN was playing anyone except Bowling Green this week. I am not a Heupel fan at all and I hated this hire. I expect TN to get their ass handed to them in the SEC and I will be looking to play against them wherever I can, but this is a situation where Heupel will run up the score if he can.

 

[LonghornMM]

Always look forward to your plays, Bason. :0008

 

[freelancc]

First play for this week is in:

Ohio State -13.5 -120

I typically do not like laying this many points on the road in a conference game, especially for the first game of the year, but I just do not think Minnesota is very good, especially on defense. I see people talking about how many returners they have on defense, but if the returners sucked last year what is going to make them so much better this year? They could not stop the run at all last year and now they open with the best team in the conference. I also do not see this line dropping so I prefer to lock it in now. My only question about Ohio State is how good Stroud is, but even if he is only okay, I see Ohio State wearing them down and covering this game. The rest of the offense is outstanding and they should dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. In the end, I expect Ohio State to win by at least 2 TDs.


Working hard on the Boise/UCF game as that is the other intriguing game on Thursday. Hated UCF under Heupel but I do like Malzhan. I really wish TN was playing anyone except Bowling Green this week. I am not a Heupel fan at all and I hated this hire. I expect TN to get their ass handed to them in the SEC and I will be looking to play against them wherever I can, but this is a situation where Heupel will run up the score if he can.

thanks for insights...:0008

 

[BASON]

Thanks!!

Second play for this week has been placed. For the record I always post my plays exactly as they have been played. I have two offshores as well as local casino access. I like to place them when I get a number I like or when I think the number will move on me. Playing games early has mostly worked for me over the years.

LSU -2.5 -127

This line has settled at 3 probably based on how UCLA looked last week but I expect it to migrate towards the opening line by game time. Easy to like UCLA based on how they looked last week coupled with how LSU played last season, but I really do not think any of that matters in this game. Those that are familiar with me know I like more old school football even though that is hard to come by these days, but the one thing that never changes is the line of scrimmage. This is something I focus on significantly and why I like LSU in this game. I think they have a big advantage upfront and will dominate both lines of scrimmage. This means that UCLA, unlike last week, will have a hard time running the ball and I really do not see them having much success at all passing the ball. LSU's defensive backs are strong and I do not think the UCLA QB is much of a passer. I think Coach O will have LSU ready to play and I can see UCLA being a little overconfident in this game. I think LSU just wears them out and wins by a TD+ (yes, I know I bought the half, but I will always buy points to get off key numbers and will even buy multiple points in some games. Some frown upon it, but it has saved me serious money over the years).

I may have one or possible two more, but this week is tough. I hate betting against Clemson since they have made me a a lot of money over the years, but I am leaning towards GA right now. I should have a small write-up on the MD game towards the end of the week.

 

[Keith 1]

Thanks Bason. Appreciate your insights. Only wish the "subscribe to thread" feature was working. It hasn't been for awhile (at least not for me).

 

[BASON]

Watching this UCF line climb. I am not posting it an an official play but I am using Boise +7.5 (buying up) in a couple parlays with soccer games.

 

[PJ12]

Watching this UCF line climb. I am not posting it an an official play but I am using Boise +7.5 (buying up)

I like that idea, thnks for postin :0074

:toast:

 

[PJ12]

I like that idea, thnks for postin :0074

:toast:

Shoulda fkin unloaded :142smilie

Great call....maybe I better just :stfu: until after its over
Thnks B
:toast:

 

[BASON]

Yeah, you almost jinxed that one!!

It wasn't easy, but I will take it. Another prime example of buying off of key numbers paying off. Definitely looked like a first game and Ohio State really did not look that great. Will definitely be paying attention to the Oregon game this week.

I have a definite lean towards Northwestern tonight simply because I really like their coach and Michigan State's program is a bit of a mess right now, but just too many question marks to make them a full play. I have them tied to a couple plays that won last night so I will just ride it out.

Working on the MD game now as I am looking forward to that one tomorrow. Many may not remember but MD/West Va is a great rivalry game. They used to play every year and they had some great games many years ago. Very pleased to see them playing again.

 

[BASON]

Been looking at this MD as much as I can and still can not come up with a strong play. My heart is with MD but my gut tells me West Va. The Maryland offense is just too much of a wild card in this game. It is also not a great match up for them since West Va's strength is defense. Their D was very impressive last year and only allowed 20.5 ppg in a strong offensive league. I think Tua is a good QB and MD WRs are extremely talented. They have a experienced RB in Davis but the others are all very young but talented. Their biggest question on offense is the offensive line and that is the reason I can not get myself to play MD. The offensive line was bad last year and they have had trouble solidifying it as well as getting depth. They need to do a better job recruiting lineman. If the line improves, MD will have a good offense, but if they can not run the ball, especially against a strong defense like WVU, they become one dimensional and will struggle. MD's defense is underrated and they are talented. They have a couple very exciting freshman that are going to play at DE and LB and their secondary is one of their strengths. I think both teams will struggle to move the ball in the FH, so I am going to watch and see if their is a second half play. I just can not trust MD's offensive line and ability to run the ball enough to play them right now, but MD has talent across the board, but I need to see if Locksley can coach it since they has yet to be seen since has been there.

I have also been digging into the Clemson game. Those that have watched my threads know I have made good money on this program over the last few years. This should be one great opening game and is getting plenty of hype. The truth is both teams could lose and still have paths to the playoffs because both teams schedules are rather weak. I know that is hard to say in the SEC, but GA has a light schedule this year. Clemson's schedule is always easy because the ACC is not very strong. I keep reading a lot about the GA injuries, but I am just not buying it. If Daniels were hurt, it would be a problem, but schools like GA are extremely deep and most of the backups are just as good as the starters and cherish the opportunity to shine. If you are a top recruiting school every year a few injuries is not a big concern. I think GA is the better team and I think the wrong team is favored in this game. I think the GA defensive line could be the difference maker in this game. I think there is some weakness on the Clemson offensive line that will create pressure and I am also not in love with Clemson's WRs. I think GA will have some success running the ball which will make Daniels an efficient passer so they can control the game. I expect a tight game throughout but I think GA comes out on top but I will gladly take as many points as I can just in case:

Georgia +4 -137


I hate betting on Penn State mostly because I do not like James Franklin, so someone please talk me out of betting on them tomorrow!!

 

[lowell]

Good luck today in football and soccer. Hoping on board with Georgia and LSU

 

[BASON]

All I know is that I will be going to the Sportsbook on Tuesday and putting a large chunk of money on Alabama to win the national championship once again. I know it is only week 1, but I have not see anything from any of these other teams that leads me to believe that can beat them.

 

[Spankie]

All I know is that I will be going to the Sportsbook on Tuesday and putting a large chunk of money on Alabama to win the national championship once again. I know it is only week 1, but I have not see anything from any of these other teams that leads me to believe that can beat them.

This GA D might give them some hassles they look freaky scary.

 

[BASON]

I definitely agree, but Georgia's offense is absolutely horrendous. They can not throw a pass over 5 yards. Daniels looks like an old man back there with no arm. Their offensive game plan was about as bad as I have ever seen. Almost as bad as Wisconsin's high school offense.