NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 5
13 of Saturday’s best games
Michigan @ Iowa
Michigan (4-0)
— Michigan outgained Maryland 463-397 in 34-27 win LW.
— Wolverines also beat three stiffs, all by 40+ points.
— 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 85 starts return on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Since 2018, Wolverines are 6-8-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Michigan is 7-5-1 ATS in its last 13 road games.
— Michigan is 14-11-1 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.
Iowa (3-1)
— Hawkeyes gave up total of 20 points in their three I-A games.
— Hawkeyes’ only loss was 10-7 at home to Iowa State.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 44 starts return on offensive line; junior QB has 19 starts
— Since 2014, they’re 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— Since 2015, Iowa is +65 in turnovers (92 games)
— Since 2018, Iowa is 21-12-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Michigan won last two series games, 42-3/10-3.
— 42-3 win was in last year’s Big 14 championship game.
— Before that, Iowa had won five of previous six meetings.
— Wolverines lost their last four visits to Iowa City (2-2 ATS)
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Kentucky @ Ole Miss
Kentucky (4-0)
— Kentucky won its only road game, 26-16 at Florida.
— Wildcats scored 31.3 ppg in their three I-A games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 45 starts back on offensive line; junior QB 13 starts
— Since 2016, they’re 13-8-1 ATS as road underdogs
— Last 4+ years, they’re 12-6-1 ATS as an underdog overall.
— Last 4+ years, they’re 20-10 ATS coming off a win.
Ole Miss (4-0)
— Rebels won first three I-A games, scoring 35 ppg.
— Ole Miss ran ball for 296.7 yards/game in their I-A games.
— Tulsa ran for 262 yards LW in Ole Miss’ 34-27 win.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 111 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 3 games at USC.
— Since 2018, Rebels are 10-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— Rebels are 21-9 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win.
— Ole Miss won 42-41 at Kentucky LY; Wildcats ran for 408 yards.
— Rebels won six of last eight series games.
— Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
Texas Tech @ Kansas State
Texas Tech (3-1)
— Red Raiders beat Texas 37-34 in overtime last week.
— Tech lost its only road game, 27-14 at NC State.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 124 starts back on offensive line; junior QB had 11 starts at Oregon
— Last 3+ years, they’re 4-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Tech is 1-7 ATS in last eight games coming off a win.
— Red Raiders threw for 327 yards/game in its I-A games.
Kansas State (3-1)
— K-State got upset 17-10 by Tulane, then won 41-34 at Oklahoma LW.
— Wildcats ran ball for 232.3 yards/game in their I-A games.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 50 starts back on offensive line; senior QB had 38 starts at Nebraska
— Under Klieman, K-State is 7-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Wildcats are 14-7 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.
— Last 4+years, K-State is 24-13 ATS in conference games.
— K-State won six in row, 10 of last 11 series games (9-2 ATS)
— Tech is 1-4 ATS in last five visits to the Little Apple.
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Oklahoma @ TCU
Oklahoma (3-1)
— Sooners scored 40.3 ppg in their 3-1 start.
— Oklahoma won their only road game 49-14 at Nebraska.
— K-State ran for 275 yards in last week’s 41-34 upset win.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 125 starts back on offensive line; soph QB had 25 starts at UCF
— Oklahoma is 7-11-1 ATS in last 19 games as a road favorite.
— Since 2018, Sooners are 4-2 ATS coming off a loss.
TCU (3-0)
— TCU won local rivalry game 42-34 at SMU last week.
— SMU passed for 372 yards LW, gained 476 yards.
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 113 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 29 starts
— New coach Dykes is 74-63 SU; this is his 4th HC job.
— In his career, Dykes is 9-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— Since 2016, TCU is 4-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Oklahoma won last eight series games (6-1 ATS last seven)
— Sooners covered their last three visits to Fort Worth.
— Under is 4-2 in last six series games.
Illinois @ Wisconsin
Illinois (3-1)
— Illinois allowed 6-3 points in its I-A wins (Wyoming/Virginia)
— Illini lost its only road game, 23-20 at Indiana.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 74 starts return on offensive line; QB started 18 games at Syracuse.
— Since 2019, Illini is 9-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— Illinois is 17-10 ATS in its last 27 conference games.
— In his career, Bielema is 19-14-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Wisconsin (2-2)
— Badgers are 2-2; they got hammered 52-21 at Ohio State LW.
— Wisconsin also lost 17-14 at home to Washington State.
— Badgers are 4-1 ATS in last five games coming off a loss.
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 57 starts return on offensive line; soph QB has 20 starts
— Badgers are 18-25 ATS last 42 games as a home favorite.
— Total yardage in LY’s 24-0 win over Illinois: 491-93.
— Bielema coached Wisconsin from 2006-12.
— Wisconsin won 11 of last 12 series games.
— Badgers won last two meetings, 24-0/45-7.
— Illinois lost last eight visits to Madison (2-6 ATS)
Oregon State @ Utah
Oregon State (3-1)
— OSU was minus-4 in turnovers, lost 17-14 at home to USC LW.
— Beavers have already beaten Boise St/Fresno St, good wins.
— 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 76 starts back on offensive line; junior QB 15 starts
— Under Smith, Beavers are 12-5 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last 3+ years, Oregon State is 16-9-1 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— Last three years, Beavers are 11-4 ATS coming off a loss.
Utah (3-1)
— Utes beat couple of I-A stiffs, 35-7/34-13, after 26-23 loss at Florida.
— Florida ran for 283 yards; yardage was 451-446.
— Utes have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 73 starts back on offensive line; junior QB started 12 games
— Utah is 17-8 ATS in last 25 games as a home favorite.
— Last 3+ years, Utes are 17-8 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2016, Utah is 36-18 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— Utah won five of last six series games.
— Beavers covered five of last six visits to Utah.
— Over is 4-2-1 in last seven meetings.
Alabama @ Arkansas
Alabama (4-0)
— Alabama won its only road game, 20-19 (-20.5) at Texas.
— Alabama held all four opponents under 80 yards rushing.
— Crimson Tide pounded three stiffs by an average of 43-3.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line; soph QB 15 starts
— Since 2017, they’re 10-12 ATS as road favorites.
— Alabama is 11-9 ATS last 20 conference games.
Arkansas (3-1)
— Arkansas (+1.5) lost 23-21 to Texas A&M last week in Dallas.
— Hogs gave up 325+ passing yards in three of four games.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Under Pittman, they’re 10-5 ATS as an underdog.
— Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 12-7-1 ATS in SEC games.
— Last two games, Arkansas is minus-4 in turnovers.
— Hogs have run ball for 254.3 yards/game vs I-A opponents.
— Alabama won last 15 meetings (3-4-1 ATS last eight)
— Crimson Tide is 5-3 ATS in last eight visits to Arkansas.
— Under is 5-3 in last eight series games.
Wake Forest @ Florida State
Wake Forest (3-1)
— Wake Forest lost 51-45 in OT to Clemson last week.
— Deacons scored 45-37 points in their two I-A wins.
— Last two games, Deacons gave up 437-559 yards.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 33 starts
— Wake is 25-14 SU last three years (+31 turnover ratio)
— In his career, Clawson is 30-21 ATS as a road underdog.
— Deacons are 11-6 ATS in last seventeen ACC games.
Florida State (4-0)
— Seminoles beat LSU/Louisville by a combined 5 points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 13 starts
— Last 4+ years, they’re 23-27 SU, but 4-0 this year.
— Under Norvell, they’re 3-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 2+ years, they’re 6-2-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2017. FSU is 17-23-2 ATS in ACC games.
— Seminoles scored 34.3 ppg in its three I-A games.
— Wake Forest won last two meetings, 35-14/22-20
— Deacons are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Tallahassee.
— Last seven series games stayed under the total.
Oklahoma State @ Baylor
Oklahoma State (3-0)
— Cowboys scored 58-34 points in its I-A wins.
— OSU gave up 424 PY in 58-44 win over Central Michigan.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 32 starts
— Since 2015, they’re 9-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— OSU is 18-8-1 ATS last 27 games coming off a win.
— Since 2019, Cowboys are 17-10-1 ATS in Big X games.
Baylor (3-1)
— Baylor won its Big X opener 31-24 at Iowa State last week.
— Bears’ one loss was 26-20 (+2.5) at BYU.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— 119 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 2 starts
— Aranda is 6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Bears are 22-10 ATS last 32 games coming off a win.
— Baylor is 19-11 ATS in its last 30 conference games.
— Teams split last six meetings.
— Baylor gained less than 300 yards in last three series games.
— Oklahoma State is 5-5 ATS in last ten visits to Waco.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Iowa State @ Kansas
Iowa State (3-1)
— Iowa State lost its Big X opener 31-24 at home to Baylor LW.
— Cyclones won their only road game, 10-7 at Iowa.
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— ISU’s new QB is completing 71.6% of his passes.
— Under Campbell, they’re 8-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Under Campbell, they’re 20-9-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Under Campbell, Cyclones are 32-22-2 ATS in conference games.
Kansas (4-0)
— Kansas scored 55-48-35 points in its three I-A wins.
— Jayhawks gave up 501-446-463 yards in those wins; they were +3 in turnovers.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 89 starts back on offensive line; both returning QB’s have 9 starts
— Kansas is 4-0 SU; last 10 years, they were 18-99 SU
— Since 2017, they’re 7-15 ATS as a home underdog.
— In his career, Leipold is 12-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last three weeks, Kansas ran for 200-280-204 yards.
— Baylor won seven in row, 11 of last 12 series games.
— Bears are 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Lawrence.
— Last three series games went over the total.
Texas A&M @ Mississippi State
Texas A&M (3-1)
— Aggies scored 14-17-23 points in its three I-A games.
— Three games were decided by total of 13 points.
— A&M gained 186-264-343 yards in those games.
— Aggies won SEC opener 23-21 over Arkansas LW.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 37 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 14 games at LSU.
— Under Fisher, Aggies are 4-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under Fisher, A&M is 19-15 ATS in SEC games.
— Since 2018, A&M is 19-13 ATS coming off a win.
Mississippi State (3-1)
— Miss State lost SEC opener 31-16 at LSU.
— LSU held them to 214 PY; they threw for 320+ yards in their wins.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 82 starts back on offensive line; soph QB 19 starts
— Under Leach, they’re 15-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Leach, Miss State is 18-16 ATS in SEC games.
— Under Leach, Bulldogs are 19-13 ATS coming off a win.
— Teams split last four series games.
— Aggies are 1-3 ATS in last four visits to Starkville.
LSU @ Auburn
LSU (3-1)
— LSU won SEC opener 31-16 at home over Miss State.
— Tigers’ only loss was 24-23 to Florida State in New Orleans.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line; QB started 29 games at Arizona State
— Since 2016, LSU is 10-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— In his career, Kelly is 29-24-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Tigers are 14-13 SU last 2+ years, after going 15-0 in 2019.
— Last three years, Kelly is 23-10 ATS coming off a win.
— Three of their four games stayed under the total.
Auburn (3-1)
— Auburn was held to 24-12-17 points in its I-A games.
— Missouri outgained them 312-217 LW, but Auburn won 17-14.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line (4 starters); soph QB has 3 starts
— Tigers are on 4th offensive coordinator the last four years.
— Since 2016, Auburn is 7-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last two games, Auburn ran ball for only 119-82 yards.
— Tigers are minus-6 in turnovers this season,
— Auburn won last two series games, 24-19/48-11.
— LSU is 1-5 ATS in last six visits to Auburn.
— Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Stanford @ Oregon
Stanford (1-2)
— Stanford lost its two I-A games, 41-28 to USC, 40-22 at Washington.
— Cardinal is minus-10 in turnovers in three games.
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line (5 starters); soph QB has 9 starts
— 12-21 SU last 3+ years (71-24 the seven years before that)
— Since 2017, they’re 4-10 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last 3+ years, Cardinal are 4-13-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Oregon (3-1)
— Oregon scored 41-44 points in winning last two I-A games.
— Ducks were outgained 571-313 in its opening 49-3 loss to Georgia
— Ducks allowed 439-305-375 PY in their three I-A games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; senior QB had 34 starts at Auburn
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Last 4+ years, Ducks are 8-12-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 6+ years, Oregon is 22-31-1 ATS in Pac-12 tilts.
— Last 2+ years, Oregon is 5-9-2 ATS coming off a win.
— Lanning is Ducks’ 4th coach in seven years; they’re 38-14 SU last 4+ years
— Stanford is 6-4 in last ten series games.
— Cardinal is 4-4 ATS in last eight visits to Eugene.
— Last three series games stayed under the total.