NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 6
13 of Saturday’s best games
TCU @ Kansas
TCU (4-0)
— TCU scored 38-42-55 points in its I-A wins.
— TCU passed for 307 yards, ran for 361 more in 55-24 win vs Oklahoma LW.
— Horned Frogs already have road wins at Colorado/SMU.
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 113 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 29 starts
— New coach Dykes is 75-63 SU; this is his 4th HC job.
— In his career, Dykes is 11-15-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last 2+ years, TCU is 5-0 ATS as a road favorite.
Kansas (5-0)
— Kansas was outgained 313-212 in LW’s 14-11 win over Iowa State.
— Jayhawks gave up 446+ yards in three of four I-A games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 89 starts back on offensive line; both returning QB’s have 9 starts
— Kansas is 5-0 SU; last 10 years, they were 18-99 SU
— Since 2017, they’re 8-15 ATS as a home underdog.
— In his career, Leipold is 13-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— Kansas QB Daniels has completed 68% of passes, with 11 TD’s, 1 INT.
— TCU won 3 in row, nine of last ten series games.
— Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Lawrence.
— Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
Arkansas @ Mississippi State
Arkansas (3-2)
— Arkansas lost last two games, 23-21 Texas A&M, 49-26 Alabama.
— Hogs have run for 237.5 yards/games in its I-A tilts.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Under Pittman, they’re 10-6 ATS as an underdog (0-2 TY).
— Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 12-8-1 ATS in SEC games.
— Last three games, Arkansas is minus-4 in turnovers.
— Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 6-5 ATS coming off a loss.
Mississippi State (4-1)
— Bulldogs hammered Texas A&M 42-24 LY, they were +3 in turnovers.
— Miss State’s only loss was 31-16 at LSU- Tigers ran for 206 yards.
— LSU held them to 214 PY; they threw for 320+ yards in their wins.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 82 starts back on offensive line; soph QB 19 starts
— Under Leach, they’re 16-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Leach, Miss State is 19-16 ATS in SEC games.
— Under Leach, Bulldogs are 20-13 ATS coming off a win.
— Arkansas won last two meetings, 21-14/31-28
— Razorbacks are 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Starkville.
— Over is 11-4 in last fifteen series games.
Purdue @ Maryland
Purdue (3-2)
— Purdue’s two losses: 35-31 Purdue/32-29 at Syracuse
— Boilers’ I-A wins: 28-26 FAU/20-10 at Minnesota
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 77 starts return on offensive line; senior QB has 15 starts
— Under Brohm, Boilers are 14-9 ATS on the road.
— Last 2+ years, Boilers are 7-10 ATS in conference games.
— In its two losses, Purdue was held to 70-61 rushing yards.
— Since 2017, Boilers are 15-12 ATS coming off a win.
Maryland (4-1)
— Terps outgained Michigan State 489-321 in 27-13 win LW.
— Maryland’s only loss: 34-27 (+17) @ Michigan.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 94 starts return on offensive line; junior QB has 17 starts
— Under Locksley, Maryland is 6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Locksley, Terps are 8-17 ATS in conference games (2-0 TY).
— Maryland gave up 243 YR in its loss; 151 or less in wins.
— Under is 4-1 in Maryland games this season.
— These teams haven’t met since 2019.
— Maryland won two of three meetings since 2006.
— Purdue (+10.5) lost 50-7 at Maryland in 2016.
Tennessee @ LSU
Tennessee (4-0)
— Tennessee won its first four games, scoring 48.8 ppg.
— Vols have thrown ball for 365.8 yards/game so far.
— Vols’ best wins: 34-27 at Pitt, 38-31 over Florida.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 91 starts back on offensive line (4 starters); senior QB has 11 starts
— Last 2+ years, Vols are 3-1 ATS as a road favorite
— In his career, Heupel is 8-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— Tennessee gave up 453 PY in the Florida game.
LSU (4-1)
— LSU won four in row since 24-23 loss to Florida State in opener.
— LSU was outgained 438-270 in LW’s 21-17 win at Auburn.
— Tigers are 2-0 in SEC; they beat Miss State 31-16, running for 206 yards.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line; QB started 29 games at Arizona State
— Since 2017, LSU is 5-2-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— In his career, Kelly is 13-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last 3+ years, LSU is 17-10 ATS coming off a win.
— Four of their five games stayed under the total.
— LSU won last five series games (2-2-1 ATS)
— Vols are 2-1 ATS in last three visits to Baton Rouge.
— Last four series games stayed under the total.