NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 7
Saturday’s best 13 games
Washington @ Iowa (-3)
Washington (4-2, 2-1)
Washington was held to 19-18 in losses, scored 30-24-27 in I-A wins.
Huskies lost their only road game, 21-18 at Rutgers.
Huskies have 2 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Huskies have 36 returning starts on offensive line, none of them here.
Senior QB Rogers started 40 games at Mississippi State.
Since 2014, Washington is 8-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Since 2018, Huskies are 20-34 ATS in conference games (2-1 TY).
In his career, Fisch is 8-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Washington is 6-10-1 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
Under is 4-1 in their I-A games this season.
Iowa (3-2, 1-1)
Iowa scored 40-38-31 points in wins, 19-7 in losses.
Iowa split first two Big 18 games, both on road.
Hawkeyes have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Hawkeyes have 154 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB McNamara has 21 career starts.
Hawkeyes are 5-8-1 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite (0-2 TY).
In his career, Ferentz is 68-61-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Iowa is 0-3-1 ATS in game coming off its last four losses.
Hawkeyes are 21-17-1 ATS in their last 39 conference games.
Over is 3-1 in their I-A games.
These teams haven’t played in this century.
Big 14 home favorites are 7-6 ATS in conference games.
Texas (-14.5) @ Oklahoma (@ Dallas)
Texas (5-0, 1-0)
Texas is 5-0, with all five wins by 19+ points.
Texas has outscored opponents 225-35 this season.
Longhorns have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Longhorns have 123 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Ewers is expected back in starting lineup.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 6-5 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 15-14 ATS in conference games.
Last 10 years, Longhorns are 14-7 ATS in neutral field games.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 13-12 ATS coming off a win.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
Oklahoma (4-1, 1-1)
Oklahoma was held to 222-291 yards in first two SEC games (1-1).
Since 2015, Sooners are 98-25 SU (20-11 under Venables)
Oklahoma has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
They’re switching to freshman QB Hawkins (14-23/152 passing LW)
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 2-2 ATS as an underdog.
Under Venables, Sooners are 8-11-1 ATS in conference games.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 8-10-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Oklahoma is already +8 in turnovers this year.
Auburn outgained Sooners 482-291 LW, but Oklahoma won, 27-21.
Oklahoma won seven of last nine series games.
Underdogs are 8-4 ATS in last 12 meetings.
Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
Underdogs are 10-6 ATS in SEC conference games.
Penn State (-4.5) @ USC
Penn State (5-0, 2-0)
Penn State is 2-0 in Big 18, winning 21-7 (Illinois), 37-11 (UCLA).
Nittany Lions won only road game, 34-12 at West Virginia.
Nittany Lions have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Penn State has 45 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Allar started 13 games last year.
Under Franklin, Penn State is 53-37-3 ATS as a favorite.
Under Franklin, Penn State is 20-12 ATS as a road favorite.
Last 2+ years, Nittany Lions are +31 in turnovers in 31 games.
PSU held four of five opponents to 260 or fewer total yards.
Four of their five games stayed under the total.
USC (3-2, 1-2)
Trojans lost two of their first three Big 18 games.
USC is 2-0 at home (48-0 Utah State/38-21 Wisconsin)
USC has 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Trojans have 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Moss won his only start 42-28 LY (bowl game).
In his career, Riley is 6-2 ATS as an underdog.
Trojans are 11-22 ATS in last 33 conference games.
In his career, Riley is 33-38-1 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Riley is 5-8 ATS coming off a loss.
USC is 5-9 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
Teams haven’t met since a bowl game eight years ago.
Big 18 home underdogs are 3-6 ATS in conference play.
California @ Pittsburgh (-3)
California (3-2, 0-2)
Cal lost its first two ACC games, 14-9/39-38.
Cal lost last week after leading 35-10 late in third quarter.
Golden Bears have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Golden Bears have 112 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Mendoza started eight games last year.
Under Wilcox, Cal is 18-10 ATS as a road underdog.
Golden Bears are 16-13 ATS in last 29 conference games.
Cal have up 437 passing yards in last week’s 39-38 loss.
Cal is 13-8 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.
Under is 3-1 in their I-A games.
Pittsburgh (5-0, 1-0)
Pitt won/covered its first four I-A games.
Panthers threw for 300+ yards in all five games.
Panthers have 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Panthers have 58 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Holstein is 112-171/1,567 passing, with 15 TD’s, 3 INTs.
Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 16-23-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Panthers allowed 24+ points in all four of their I-A games.
Pitt is 6-6 ATS in its last 12 ACC home games.
Last 2+ years, Panthers are 8-9 ATS in ACC games overall.
Panthers are 6-8 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
These teams haven’t met in this century.,
ACC home favorites are 7-7 ATS in conference play.
Cincinnati @ Central Florida (-3)
Cincinnati (3-2, 1-1)
Cincinnati’s two losses were 28-27 to Pitt, 44-41 at Texas Tech.
Bearcats gave up 438+ TY in three of their five games.
Bearcats have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Bearcats have 91 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Sorsby started 7 games at Indiana last year.
Since 2020, Cincinnati is 3-4-1 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Satterfield is 11-15-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 2+ years, Cincinnati is 4-13-2 ATS in conference games.
Bearcats are 4-7-1 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.
Under is 3-1 in Cincinnati’s I-A games this year.
Central Florida (3-2, 1-1)
UCF gave up 48-24 points in losing last two games.
Knights scored 45-35 points in their two I-A wins.
Knights have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
UCF has 58 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Jefferson started 38 games at Arkansas.
Under Malzahn, UCF is 9-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Malzahn is 31-36-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Malzahn, Knights are 11-16-1 ATS in conference games.
UCF is 5-15-1 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.
Over is 3-1 in their I-A games.
UCF is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
Bearcats are 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS in last four visits to Orlando.
Under is 6-3 in last nine series games.
Big X home favorites are 7-9 ATS in conference play.
Arizona @ BYU (-4)
Arizona (3-2, 1-2)
Arizona is 1-2 in Big X games,, giving up 31-28 points in losses.
Wildcats outgained Texas Tech 422-331 LW, but lost 28-22.
Arizona has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
Wildcats have 86 starts back on offensive line.
Soph QB Fifita started nine games last year.
Arizona is 7-3 ATS last ten games as a road underdog.
In his career, Brennan is 17-13 ATS as a road underdog.
Wildcats are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 conference games.
In his career, Brennan is 33-24-1 ATS in conference games.
Arizona is 8-3 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
Under is 3-1 in Arizona’s I-A games.
BYU (5-0, 2-0)
BYU won its first two Big X games, scoring 38-34 points.
BYU won/covered all four f its I-A games.
Cougars have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Broncos have 88 starts returning on the offensive line.
Junior QB Retzlaff started four games LY.
Last two years, BYU was 1-6 ATS as a home favorite.
BYU scored 34+ points in three of four I-A games.
In his career, coach Sitake is 22-32 ATS as a favorite.
Last 2+ years, BYU is 8-8 ATS coming off a win (4-0 TY).
BYU beat Kansas State 38-9, in its only I-A home game.
BYU won its last three games with Arizona
This is Wildcats’ first trip to Provo since 2007.
Last six meetings stayed under the total.
Big X home favorites are 7-9 ATS in conference play.
Florida @ Tennessee (-15)
Florida (3-2, 1-1)
Florida gave up 41-33 points in its two losses (Miami/Texas A&M).
Last three years, Gators were 6-7/6-7/5-7.
Florida has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Gators have 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Mertz/frosh QB Lagway are splitting time.
Under Napier, Florida is 5-2 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Napier is 13-5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 3+ years, Florida is 16-25-1 ATS overall.
Under Napier, Florida is 9-9 ATS in SEC games.
Over is 3-1 in Florida’s I-A games.
Florida won its only road game: 45-28 at Mississippi State.
Tennessee (4-1, 1-1)
Tennessee split its two SEC games, both on road.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 8-3 ATS coming off a loss.
Tennessee has 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Vols have 112 returning starts on the offensive line;
Frosh QB Iamaleava had one start, was MVP of Citrus Bowl.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 12-5 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Heupel is 22-13 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 12-14 ATS in SEC games.
Vols were held to 25-14 points in their SEC games.
Vols better not look ahead; they play Alabama next week.
Florida won 17 of last 19 meetings.
Gators are 6-2 ATS in last eight visits to Knoxville.
Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
SEC home favorites are 1-7 ATS in conference games.
Ohio State (-3) @ Oregon
Ohio State (5-0, 2-0)
Ohio State won first two Big 18 games, 38-7/35-7.
All five Buckeye wins this year were by 28+ points.
Ohio State has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Buckeyes have 103 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Howard stated 33 games at Kansas State.
Under Day, OSU is 11-8-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Buckeyes won only road game TY 38-7 at Michigan State.
Buckeyes are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 conference games.
OSU is 9-4-2 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
Ohio State held all five opponents to 264 or fewer total yards.
Oregon (5-0, 2-0)
Oregon scored 37-49-34-31 points in its I-A wins.
Last three games, Ducks gained 546-431-477 TY.
Oregon has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Ducks have 144 returning starts on the offensive line.
Ducks poached senior QB Gabriel (49 starts at UCF/Oklahoma).
Under Lanning, Oregon is 2-1 ATS as an underdog.
Ducks are 5-2 ATS in last seven games as an underdog.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 13-6 ATS in conference games.
Ducks are 14-4 ATS in last 18 conference games.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 16-7 ATS coming off a win.
Underdog won/covered all three meetings.
Teams haven’t met since 2021.
Big 18 home underdogs are 3-6 ATS in conference play.
Ole Miss (-3.5) @ LSU
Ole Miss (5-1, 1-1)
Ole Miss split its two SEC games, scoring 17-27 points.
Rebels scored 48 ppg in its three I-A non-SEC wins.
Rebels have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Rebels have 222 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Dart has started 25 games.
Ole Miss is 2-0 on road; 40-6 at Wake Forest. 27-3 at South Carolina
Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 9-3-1 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Kiffin is 19-16-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Kiffin, Rebels are 21-14-2 ATS coming off a win.
Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 15-18-2 ATS in SEC games.
Under is 5-0 in Ole Miss games this season.
LSU (14-0, 1-0)
LSU won its last four games, after a 27-20 loss to USC.
LSU won its last three games, scoring 36-34-42 points.
Tigers have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Tigers have 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Nussmeier is completing 69% of passes (15 TD’s, 4 INTs)
Under Kelly, Tigers are 3-1 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Kelly is 15-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Kelly is 35-17-2 ATS as an underdog.
Under Kelly, LSU is 8-9-1 ATS in SEC games.
Since 2017, LSU is 36-23-2 ATS in SEC games.
LSU won 10 of last 14 series games.
Ole Miss lost last seven visits to LSU (0-5 ATS in last five)
Over is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
SEC home underdogs are 5-3 ATS in conference play.
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (-13.5)
Vanderbilt (3-2, 1-1)
How does Vandy respond after upsetting Alabama last week?
Vandy is 0-2 on road (36-32 at Georgia State, 30-27 at Mizzou).
Commodores have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Commodores have 121 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Pavia started 23 games at New Mexico State.
Under Lea, Vandy is 9-7 ATS as road underdogs.
Under Lea, Vandy is 15-17 ATS as an underdog (3-0 TY).
Vandy is 7-11 ATS in its last 18 SEC games (2-0 TY).
Under Lea, Vandy is 2-9 ATS coming off a win.
Over is 4-0 in Vandy games this season.
Kentucky (3-2, 1-2)
Kentucky won its last two games, giving up 6-17 points.
Kentucky was held to 6-12 points in its two losses.
Wildcats have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Wildcats have 156 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Vandagriff was a backup at Georgia.
Kentucky is 18-11 ATS in last 29 games as a home favorite.
Wildcats held 4 of 5 opponents to 262 or fewer total yards.
Kentucky is 15-12 ATS in last 27 SEC games.
Last 3+ years, Wildcats are 15-10 ATS coming off a win.
Under is 4-1 in Kentucky games this season.
Kentucky won seven of last eight meetings.
Vandy is 5-1 ATS in its last six visits to Lexington.
Under is 8-4 in last 12 series games.
SEC home favorites are 1-7 ATS in conference games.
Iowa State (-3.5) @ West Virginia
Iowa State (5-0, 2-0)
Iowa State is 5-0 for first time since 1980.
Cyclones are 2-0 on road (20-19 Iowa/20-0 Houston)
Cyclones have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Cyclones have 90 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Becht started 13 games last season.
Iowa State is 4-0 ATS in its I-A games this year.
Under Campbell, ISU is 11-10-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Cyclones are 8-3 ATS in last 11 conference games.
Last three games, Cyclones ran ball for 237-240-265 yards.
Over is 3-1 in their I-A games.
West Virginia (3-2, 2-0)
WVU won first two Big X tilts, 32-28 Kansas/38-14 @ Oklahoma State
WVU gave up 34-38 points in its two losses.
Mountaineers have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Mountaineers have 113 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Greene has 14 career starts.
Under Brown, WVU is 6-8 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Brown is 6-10 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Brown, WVU is 22-24 ATS in Big X games.
Under Brown, Mountaineers are 12-17 ATS in games coming off a win.
West Virginia gave up 14-28-14 points in its wins.
Iowa State won/covered four of last five meetings.
Cyclones lost three of last four visits to Morgantown.
Under is 6-2-1 in last nine series games.
Minnesota (-3.5) @ UCLA
Minnesota (3-3, 1-2)
Minnesota lost its only road game, 27-24 at Michigan.
Gophers are 0-2 in games decided by less than 7 points.
Gophers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Minnesota has 70 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Brosmer started 36 games at I-AA New Hampshire.
Under Fleck, Minnesota is 7-5-1 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Fleck is 13-8-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Fleck, Minnesota is 31-31-2 ATS in conference games.
Minnesota gave up 0-17 points in its two I-A wins.
Gophers were held under 100 YR in all three losses.
UCLA (1-4, 0-3)
UCLA lost its last four games, all by 16+ points.
Bruins are scoring only 14 ppg this season.
UCLA has 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Bruins have 101 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Garbers started 6 games last year.
UCLA was held under 300 TY in its last four games.
Bruins are 1-4 ATS this season.
UCLA is 5-2 ATS last seven games as a home dog.
Bruins have been held under 100 YR in all five games.
Under is 4-1 in UCLA’s games this season.
These teams haven’t met in this century.
Big 18 home underdogs are 3-6 ATS
Kansas State (-3.5) @ Colorado
Kansas State (4-1, 2-1)
K-State scored 31+ points in wins, lost 38-9 at BYU.
Wildcats ran ball for 215-235-228-300 yards in their I-A games.
Wildcats have 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Wildcats have 73 returning starts on OL, only 36 at I-A level.
Frosh QB Johnson threw for 879 yards, ran for 321 more in five games.
K-State is 0-5 ATS last five games as a road favorite.
Under Klieman, Wildcats are 22-13 ATS as a favorite.
Under Klieman, K-State is 32-17 ATS in Big X games.
Under Klieman, Wildcats are 24-18 ATS coming off a win.
Tulane passed for 342 yards, Oklahoma State 364 yards vs K-State.
Colorado (4-1, 2-0)
Colorado won its last three games. 28-9/38-31 (OT)/48-21
Colorado was held to 260 TY in only loss, 28-10 at Nebraska.
Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Tigers have 100 returning starts on offensive line, and a new OL coach.
QB Sanders started 11 games LY, after playing multiple years at I-AA Jackson State.
Sanders is 7-3 ATS as an underdog with Colorado, 3-0 at home.
Since 2014, Colorado is 18-13 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Sanders, Buffs are 7-4 ATS in conference games.
Colorado is 3-5 ATS in last eight games coming off a win.
Colorado is 3-0 when it throws for 300+ yards.
These teams haven’t met since 2010.
Home teams are 7-11 ATS in Big X conference games.
