Bettors Going Under cover with Tennessee, and this weekend's NCAA basketball odds and analysis
SEC fans revel in all-Tigers matchups ? but recent history between Auburn and LSU haven't been all that sporting, at least where the spread is concerned. Saturday's latest chapter in the all-tabby battle is the highlight of a packed college basketball schedule, which includes Tennessee looking like a solid combo option at home against Florida, and bettors likely keying in on Houston and Cincinnati as a great totals play. Here are the top games, trends and tips to monitor as every game on the college hoops calendar takes on added significance:
Bettors Going Under/Cover?
Identifying one solid trend to ride is often rewarding enough ? but being able to put multiple trends together to increasing your bet return is exhilarating. That's what bettors are facing Saturday when the top-ranked Tennessee Volunteers entertain the Florida Gators at Thompson-Boling Arena. The Tennessee cover will be an attractive option here, with the Vols having gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 and Florida having failed to cover in five consecutive games. Bettors might also consider combining that with the under; the Gators are 13-3 to the under in their last six road games, while Tennessee is 1-4 O/U in its past five home outings.
Awww, Burn
Not all Tigers are created equal ? at least, where collegiate team names are concerned. Auburn and LSU square off Saturday in the latest SEC All-Tiger showdown ? and the Auburn version of the wild tabby has been truly dominant from an ATS perspective. Auburn enters the weekend having covered each of its previous 10 meetings with LSU at Pete Maravich Assembly Center, with LSU's last home cover in the series coming way back in 2005. These teams also represent a solid combo option, having gone over the total in eight of their previous 10 head-to-head tilts in the Bayou.
Getting Low
Looking for a strong under opportunity? The American Athletic Conference might just have what you need as Cincinnati and Houston renew hostilities in one of only two Sunday games involving at least one ranked team. Oddsmakers have been modest with the totals for Bearcats-Cougars matchups in recent years ? and the teams have still come in low, having cashed the under in eight of their previous nine meetings. In fact, only three times over that span has even one team surpassed 70 points. Cincinnati is 12-11 O/U on the season, while Houston is 11-12 O/U.
Mid-Major to Watch
CSU Northridge Matadors (10-14 SU, 15-6-1 ATS, 13-8 O/U): While the red-cape-carrying crusaders aren't exactly making headlines among casual college hoops fans ? they're fifth in the Big West Conference standings ? they do represent one of the top betting plays in the nation. CSU Northridge goes into a one-week break having covered five consecutive games and has the best ATS mark in its conference. The Matadors are also a terrific over play, though they've cooled of late with under conversions in four of their previous five games.
While CSU Northridge has struggled mightily on defense ? its 80.2 points allowed per game are the 15th-most in all of Division I ? it has been surprisingly solid on the offensive end, averaging 77.4 points while shooting a healthy 46.9 percent from the field. And they've remained competitive even in defeat, with each of their previous six losses coming by seven or fewer points; they're 5-1 ATS in those contests. CSU Northridge resumes its schedule Wednesday against UC Davis.
National Title Odds
There's movement at the top of the national championship odds table ? and if anything, it galvanizes the Blue Devils as the team to beat in the eyes of oddsmakers. Duke has shifted slightly from +225 to +210 ? but it's not the only team making a move, with the Gonzaga Bulldogs now alone as the second favorite at +900. Virginia sits by itself in third at +1,000.
Betting Trends
Road favorites have been a trendy play over the previous seven days, having covered the spread at a 57.6-percent rate (53-39-3 ATS) while going an incredible 70-25 SU. Favorites covered 52.7 percent of the time overall over the past week, putting favorite plays at 50.3 percent ATS for the season.
From a totals perspective, momentum is building toward the under, with 53.8 percent of games coming in below the total over the previous week. That number jumps to a whopping 56.7 percent in non-overtime games. Unders have made good 52.1 percent of the time over the past 30 days, and are at 52.0 percent for the season.
Give it up for the Sam Houston State Bearkats, who come into the weekend as the top ATS play in Division I with an incredible 17-3-0 record. The biggest factor behind SHSU's amazing cover run: a defense limiting opponents to 66.2 points per game. The Bearkats have covered in 13 consecutive lined games entering Saturday's date with host Abilene Christian.
SEC fans revel in all-Tigers matchups ? but recent history between Auburn and LSU haven't been all that sporting, at least where the spread is concerned. Saturday's latest chapter in the all-tabby battle is the highlight of a packed college basketball schedule, which includes Tennessee looking like a solid combo option at home against Florida, and bettors likely keying in on Houston and Cincinnati as a great totals play. Here are the top games, trends and tips to monitor as every game on the college hoops calendar takes on added significance:
Bettors Going Under/Cover?
Identifying one solid trend to ride is often rewarding enough ? but being able to put multiple trends together to increasing your bet return is exhilarating. That's what bettors are facing Saturday when the top-ranked Tennessee Volunteers entertain the Florida Gators at Thompson-Boling Arena. The Tennessee cover will be an attractive option here, with the Vols having gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 and Florida having failed to cover in five consecutive games. Bettors might also consider combining that with the under; the Gators are 13-3 to the under in their last six road games, while Tennessee is 1-4 O/U in its past five home outings.
Awww, Burn
Not all Tigers are created equal ? at least, where collegiate team names are concerned. Auburn and LSU square off Saturday in the latest SEC All-Tiger showdown ? and the Auburn version of the wild tabby has been truly dominant from an ATS perspective. Auburn enters the weekend having covered each of its previous 10 meetings with LSU at Pete Maravich Assembly Center, with LSU's last home cover in the series coming way back in 2005. These teams also represent a solid combo option, having gone over the total in eight of their previous 10 head-to-head tilts in the Bayou.
Getting Low
Looking for a strong under opportunity? The American Athletic Conference might just have what you need as Cincinnati and Houston renew hostilities in one of only two Sunday games involving at least one ranked team. Oddsmakers have been modest with the totals for Bearcats-Cougars matchups in recent years ? and the teams have still come in low, having cashed the under in eight of their previous nine meetings. In fact, only three times over that span has even one team surpassed 70 points. Cincinnati is 12-11 O/U on the season, while Houston is 11-12 O/U.
Mid-Major to Watch
CSU Northridge Matadors (10-14 SU, 15-6-1 ATS, 13-8 O/U): While the red-cape-carrying crusaders aren't exactly making headlines among casual college hoops fans ? they're fifth in the Big West Conference standings ? they do represent one of the top betting plays in the nation. CSU Northridge goes into a one-week break having covered five consecutive games and has the best ATS mark in its conference. The Matadors are also a terrific over play, though they've cooled of late with under conversions in four of their previous five games.
While CSU Northridge has struggled mightily on defense ? its 80.2 points allowed per game are the 15th-most in all of Division I ? it has been surprisingly solid on the offensive end, averaging 77.4 points while shooting a healthy 46.9 percent from the field. And they've remained competitive even in defeat, with each of their previous six losses coming by seven or fewer points; they're 5-1 ATS in those contests. CSU Northridge resumes its schedule Wednesday against UC Davis.
National Title Odds
There's movement at the top of the national championship odds table ? and if anything, it galvanizes the Blue Devils as the team to beat in the eyes of oddsmakers. Duke has shifted slightly from +225 to +210 ? but it's not the only team making a move, with the Gonzaga Bulldogs now alone as the second favorite at +900. Virginia sits by itself in third at +1,000.
Betting Trends
Road favorites have been a trendy play over the previous seven days, having covered the spread at a 57.6-percent rate (53-39-3 ATS) while going an incredible 70-25 SU. Favorites covered 52.7 percent of the time overall over the past week, putting favorite plays at 50.3 percent ATS for the season.
From a totals perspective, momentum is building toward the under, with 53.8 percent of games coming in below the total over the previous week. That number jumps to a whopping 56.7 percent in non-overtime games. Unders have made good 52.1 percent of the time over the past 30 days, and are at 52.0 percent for the season.
Give it up for the Sam Houston State Bearkats, who come into the weekend as the top ATS play in Division I with an incredible 17-3-0 record. The biggest factor behind SHSU's amazing cover run: a defense limiting opponents to 66.2 points per game. The Bearkats have covered in 13 consecutive lined games entering Saturday's date with host Abilene Christian.
