College Hoops 2020

[gridman]

I'm Guessing

I'm Guessing

No 2 is the Liberty game

No 3 is either the Colo St game or the Dayton game

No. 5 is the Kansas game

Will await your answers. At least you gave me something to tide me over until the start of the tournament.
Keep up the good work - much appreciated;

GM

 

[RBD]

Gridman:"At least you gave me something to tide me over until the start of the tournament."

I thought I'd liven it up a bit with a riddle-like post to keep it interesting for a day, something different.
I figured for every one person who liked it another wouldn't, but I was bored so I went with it.

"Buffalo girls go 'round and round" is the old song.

Dorothy: "Toto, I don't think we're in Kansas anymore."

Kim K's vag (vaj?) is self-explanatory.

Anyway . . .

Have some updates to yesterday's stats, and added games:

App St now qualifies as 10 or > .
Texas Southern/Mt S Mary's now qualifies as an Ov in the NP.
Rutgers/Clemson Ov is added as a NP.


Bad move buying Liberty Ov early, the # dropped, but every other buy was well-timed as lines moved against me; good move waiting to buy the Buff spot is it went up a little more, get it at 154.

Seems everyone is expecting a little more D in this round, or they think the books opened with many totals too high, as most of them went down.

UPDATE: W Kentucky no longer qualifies as MP.

Buys:

Utah St/Tex Tech Un 131'

Liberty/Ok St Ov 142

Buff/Col St Un 154 (off?)

Winthrop/Villanova Un 143'

E Wash/Kansas Un 146'

Iona/'Bama Un 148

Grand Canyon/Iowa Un 145'

 

[RBD]

No play yesterday.

My Tournament Record: 10-11 (9-8 on totals)

Record of plays I'm using:

NP 25-22, Ov 11-14, Un 14-8

10 or > 11-11, Ov 3-8, Un 8-3

13 or > 1-0, Un 1-0

Spots that qualify:

NP has Ov in Texas Southern, App St, G Tech, Oregon St, Liberty, Rutgers, Cleve St, Creighton, Miss St, Virg,

Un in SMU, Ark, Utah St, Col St, Winthrop, Kansas, 'Bama, Grand Canyon

10 or > Ark, Utah St, Oregon St, Liberty, Cleve St, Winthrop, 'Bama, Iowa, Virg, Tex South.
13 or > in Buffalo (this spot is > 20, highest all year before this was 17), Kansas

Updates:

Tex South Ov is now 10 or > .

Update #2: I try to use closing numbers for grading purposes, and this one doesn't tip off for another hour or so, but Tex South went back up, so it no longer qualifies as 10 or > .
I already bought it because at 132 it was in a 72% Fade spot. It's 133' now, which drops it to 8'.
At 8' it's still a Fade at 56%, but not nearly as strong. Hope my early buy doesn't cost me.

Record keeping only: From my post on 3/13, regarding experimenting with plays on sides - "I may have a subset within those numbers that could be worth something."
I double checked the #'s and it's 6-9, which means a 60% fade. At 60% it's very playable, I'm going to track/post to see what happens in round one, if it hits at that % or > I can use them in round two.
Here are the teams to play AGAINST:
SMU, UCLA, Ore St, Missouri, Winthrop, Syracuse, Buffalo, N Tex.

The NP at 10 or > Over in the tournament are 3-8, a solid fade at 72%.
There are two spots that qualify today:Tex South at 132 or < and App St at 133 or < .
Tex South is the first game on today's card, I'm buying the fade to see if the %'s hold so I can bank a unit.


Buys:

Texas Southern/Mt St Mary's Un 132

Utah St/Tex Tech Un 131'

Liberty/Ok St Ov 142

Buff/Col St Un 154 (off?)

Winthrop/Villanova Un 143'

E Wash/Kansas Un 146'

Iona/'Bama Un 148

Grand Canyon/Iowa Un 145'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Won with the fade on the Texas Southern game.

Record: 11-11; Ov 3-4, Un 7-4, sides 1-3

I have to admit - it felt pretty good to get a W in my first play in the Big Dance.

Got some good stuff to use coming out of yesterday:

1 - Both plays I identified as a 72% fade won. I hit with the earlier contest, Texas Southern. That made it a 75% fade going into the later game, App St. I didn't add App as a buy notice but I damned sure had it in my pocket. The reason this is good news isn't solely because I banked a unit on Tex South, but because so far my numbers are holding true. NP Over at 10 or > is now 77% as we take on the rest of the card. Remaining spots are Tenn, Liberty (which I already bought the Ov on because of Liberty's record in this spot, though wishing I hadn't now that the spot overall, all teams, is a 77% fade), Hou, Virginia and UCLA.

2 - Good move on NOT buying the Under in SMU. I posted buys on seven Unders, but not this one. Why not? Because it qualified by the minimum number possible. I opted to go with the higher qualifiers, and so far it's paid off as SMU sailed Over.

3 - There may be hope for the sides play I'm tracking. It was a 60% fade and only went 1-1 last night, but should have been a 2-0 sweep if Mich St didn't fold in the final minute and then OT.
It's 58% now, with five spots today, plays AGAINST Syracuse, Winthrop, Oregon St, Buffalo, and N Tex.
Update/correction: Fla is also a play AGAINST. (Got shut out by a minute, trying to get a decent live bet but Tech is too far out in front.)

Three games get added to the card, NP:
Ov in Creighton, UCLA, Un in Gonzaga.
Gonzaga and UCLA are 10 or >.

Adding the next 10 or > Fade spot, Tenn.

Buys:

Utah St/Tex Tech Un 131'

Oregon St/Tenn Un 131

Liberty/Ok St Ov 142

Buff/Col St Un 154

Winthrop/Villanova Un 143'

E Wash/Kansas Un 146'

Iona/'Bama Un 148

Grand Canyon/Iowa Un 145'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Page 2? You guys let me fade away to halfway down page 2??!!
Oh the inhumanity, the indignity of it all.
Just kidding.
Had a nice night at 4-1, the only loss being the game I said I wish I had not bought early (and should have done a buyback on based on a 75% fade) the Liberty game.

Record: 15-12.

The reason I said yesterday that we had some good stuff to work with is because if my numbers were holding true, if they hold at the current percentages, we have two different areas to attack the books: fading Overs of 10 or > and taking Unders, any Unders, but especially 10 or >.

Yesterday's posted plays went 6-2, Unders were 4-0.

Unders in the tournament or now 18-8, and 12-3 when 10 or more.

Overs of 10 or > are now 4-11, a solid fade at 73% (today has St Louis and Virginia in this spot.)

In the first round of the NIT/NCAA I gave out eight buys, then added one yesterday, the Tennessee fade.
I'm sitting at 5-1, with three games left, which means even if I get swept 0-3 I still come out of this round with a profit. But with the three games being Unders, and two of them being 10 or > while the third one (Kansas) is 13 or > (2-0, both Unders), I like the position I'm in today, so likely won't add any buys.

NP has one additional spot that I haven't posted yet, Wisconsin Over tomorrow.

Good luck with your plays today . . .

Buys:

E Wash/Kansas Un 146'

Iona/'Bama Un 148

Grand Canyon/Iowa Un 145'

 

[Mobb Deep]

Opinion

Opinion

RBD,

Any opinion on G?Town/Colorado?

 

[RBD]

Mobb, I just got this. I have no opinion on this game, side or total, no edge when I look at the numbers I use.

 

[Mobb Deep]

Mobb, I just got this. I have no opinion on this game, side or total, no edge when I look at the numbers I use.

I ended up to playing the over 💰💰

 

[RBD]

Just a heads up in case anyone is playing the Unders of 10 or >, Gonzaga no longer qualifies.

 

[Coach Woody]

Thanks RBD..... Hoping for another big day tomorrow

 

[RBD]

You're welcome, Coach.

Recap: 1-2 on the day, not good, but it was enough to give me 6-3 for my opening plays in the NIT/NCAA tournaments, and that's 67%, the top goal I always shoot for.

Postseason record: 16-14

Unfortunately, I have nothing today.
Two spots qualify: MP has Un in N Tex.
NP has Wisc/Baylor Ov at 137 or <, (if the closing number goes up even as much as a half point it's no longer a play.)

Neither spot is strong, as a play ON or AGAINST, so I'm going to take the day off.

I'll update the record on all plays and subsets tomorrow.
Good luck with your plays today.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.

Record: 16-14.

Still hitting my first and second goals (1 - Don't lose $; 2 - Bank a profit, any profit) but should be doing better with that performance of the system I use. Playing sides hurt, without them I'd be happy with where I am at. If %'s hold throughout the tournaments I should be able to bank a few more units.

Correction - on 3/19 I noted that UCLA was an added play, as a NP Ov of 10 or >.
In my 3/20 update when I listed plays that were active in that spot I left UCLA off the list; sorry about that, it lost as an Ov of 10 or >, which means it was another winner for anyone fading that spot.

So, what do we have to work with this week?
Overall records:
MP is 3-4, Ov 3-3, Un 0-1.
NP is just 35-34, a record that would have me drop the play and looking for something else to use,
but within it there are profitable subsets:
Ov is 15-23, Un is 20-11.
10 or > is Ov 6-14, Un 13-5,
13 or > is 2-1, Ov 0-0, Un 2-1.

Any Ov is worth fading because they're at 60%.
Any Un is worth playing, they're 64%.
Ov of 10 or > is a definite buy at 70%.
Un of 10 or > is the best buy of all at 72%.

The subsets within sides I was looking at went from 60% to 50% so I dropped it; no use.

Update: If the common # on Ok/Zaga hits 155 or > it becomes a NP Un (corrected from 145 to 155.)

Today . . .

Only one spot to use, NP has Un in CC/Bryant, diff of > 15.

Buys:
Coastal Car/Bryant Un (wait to buy; opening 155 is at 158 with a few 158' now available)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1 yesterday.
Post season record: 16-15.

In a spot of trouble now. Only a limited amount of games left, and I need to isolate a few winners, but the percentages aren't holding, at lease not for Unders. Overall the %'s look fine, but as of late the Unders have gone 2-4, and worse, Unders of 10 or > are 1-3.

Only have one spot today, and lucky to get that with only two games on the board.
NP has Ov in Pepperdine/Bellamarine at 150 or < .
Overs are 15-23, a 60% Fade.

For Saturday/Sunday I got more spots than I thought I would with so few games on the slate.
NP has Ov in Oregon St
Un in Baylor, Ark, Houston, 'Zaga.
10 or > in Houston (72%)
13 or > in 'Zaga (67%)

The common number on the Ore St/Loyola Chi game is at 125'/126, and dropping. Needs to hit 125 to qualify as a NP Ov of 10 or > and I expect it will by game day, so I'm buying it today to get the better #.

With limited opportunity left this season I'm going to ride these plays.
I'll fade the Overs (60%) and use the Unders (60%) and hope the %'s stay in my favor to close out the year.
Like they say, "You dance with the one that brung ya."

Buys:
Pepper/Bella Un 150
Oregon St/Loyola Chi Un 126
Oral Roberts/Arkansas Un 159'
Syracuse/Houston Un (wait to buy, rising?)
Creighton/Gonzaga Un (wait, rising; Joe Public will be all over the Over, we'll get a better #)

 

[RBD]

Recap - Lost with the fade on Pepper/Bella.
Record: 16-16

Now I'm in real trouble. The Unders already started a regression to .500 (where all stats inevitably end up) and now the "Fade the Over" might be joining them.

At 16-16 I'm dipping into regular season profits to finance my post tournament play and losses (down $160 for a $110/$100 bettor now, post season.) I will finish the season with a profit, even if I have to shut down post season play. I banked 12 units regular season, not a lot, but for a sport I don't usually cap I'm more than content with that finish. At $110/$100 it comes out to a profit of $1,220, which means taking into account my post season I'm still up a little over a dime on the year (and had a LOT of fun crunching numbers, tracking systems, and sharing thoughts, plays, and money management stuff here.) I'd like to finish at over a dime of house money so I need at least a 3-2 record in my remaining five buys.

The CC/Pepper game today qualifies as a NP Over but it's not a strong enough differential for me to fade, and coming off a loss last night I'll take tonight off so I don't risk being on a losing streak going into the buys I made for Thursday and Saturday.
UPDATE: CC/Pepper no longer qualifies due to 3 pt line move.

Tomorrow, NP has Un in NC St and W Kentucky.

W. Kentucky barley qualifies, but the NC St game with Col St is > 15.
Even with their recent 1-3 slide, Unders of 10 or > are still at 13-6. That's 68%, a number I'll gladly play every chance I get. At 13 or > Unders are just 2-2 after the loss with Coastal on Monday, but I'm not abandoning it yet. Also, Col St is 2-0 in this spot, post season (NC St is 0-0) so I'm adding this game to my buys.

Update #2: At 137 or > La Tech/W Kentucky qualifies; at anything < than 137 it does not qualify. The board is split right now at 136' & 137. I'm not buying it, for record keeping I'll use the closing number.


Buys:

NC St/Col St Un 146'
Oregon St/Loyola Chi Un 126
Oral Roberts/Arkansas Un 159'
Syracuse/Houston Un 140'
Creighton/Gonzaga Un (wait, rising; Joe Public will be all over the Over, we'll get a better #)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0, had a really nice win with NC St/Col St Un last night.

Record: 17-16

It was a nice win for a couple of reasons:
it was an Under pace all the way, no sweat;
I was 1-4 in my last five buys so it put a halt on that;
it got me back above .500 and in position to bank a profit in the tournaments;
it stopped the losing streak on NP Unders, which was at 2-4.

Notes:

La Tech closed at 136/136' so it comes off the chart, no play.

Oregon St/Loyola-Chi is now at 125, which makes it the "fade the Ov play at 10 or > " (anything above 125 is not 10 or >); buying it early at Un 126 was the right move.

'Nova/Baylor is at 142 at a couple of houses, at 142 or > it qualifies as an Un of 10 or >.


Buys:

Oregon St/Loyola Chi Un 126
Oral Roberts/Arkansas Un 159'
Syracuse/Houston Un 140'
Creighton/Gonzaga Un 158'

 

[RBD]

Added NP: Col St/Memphis Un 138' (> 13).
I'm buying it.

Villanova/Baylor common number is 142, making it a NP Un of 10 or > spot, so I'm buying it.

Buys:

Col St/Memphis Un 138'
Villanova/Baylor Un 142
Oregon St/Loyola Chi Un 126
Oral Roberts/Arkansas Un 159'
Syracuse/Houston Un 140'
Creighton/Gonzaga Un 158'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 4-1 yesterday.
Missed with added game, Col St Un, hit with the "Fade any Over of 10 or >" with Oregon State/Loyola-Chi, hit with Un on Baylor, Arkansas, and Houston games.

Record: 21-17

Back in Black.
I have half a mind to end the season right now and lock up a victory, but where's the fun in that?

Here is what I have to work with going into today's games.
NP overall record is 40-38
Ov 16-24, Un is 24-14.

Ov of 10 or > is 6-15, Un of 10 or > is 16-7.

Ov of 13 or > is 0-0, Un of 13 or > is 3-2 (Memphis game line move took it under a diff of 13.)

I have one open buy left, the Gonzaga spot. If I hadn't already bought it I wouldn't buy it this morning, I'd just lock up the profit for the week.

I also have two added games.
NP has La Tech/Col St Un, Fla St/Mich Over.
The Ov in Mich is not a 10 or > and only qualifies at 143 or <.
The Un in Col St is 10 or > at 142 or >, the common number right now is 142'.
No buys, yet, may add later.

Update: No buy, it's about to tip off, but for record-keeping purposes only, Michigan game is now Ov of 10 or >.

Buys:

Creighton/Gonzaga Un 158'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Banked another winner with Gonzaga Under.

Record: 22-17

Good move laying off the Un in the Col St spot yesterday, despite it having a record of 17-7 going into the game. They had just gone Ov the night before (tagging me with an L) and I didn't like the number or match up. And it went Over again.

Setting aside their recent losses, and not abandoning the situational plays that have performed well for me all season, was a good strategy. The Unders stayed true to form, as did the fade of Overs of 10 or >.
Here are the updated records as we head into the final games of the season.

NP overall is 41-40. At that record, it's worthless, BUT . . . it's a good thing I track subsets because within that 41-40 we have . . .

Overs at 16-25 (a sold Fade at 61%)

Overs of 10 pts or > at 6-15 (an even better Fade at a terrific 71%)

Unders at 25-15 (a solid 62%)

Unders of 10 or > at 17-8 (a very nice 68%)

That's four plays with W%'s of 61% or higher, plenty enough to use to make it a profitable season.

With my record at 22-17, and with only a few games left to be played, I'm going to go ahead and call the 2020-2021 college basketball season a success. I'm guaranteed to hit my first two goals:
1) Don't lose money.
2) Bank a profit.

In a sport that is not my forte, one I haven't done much work on in the past, I'm very satisfied with my results. And I gained experience that I can hopefully use to my advantage next season.
And had a lot of fun doing the handicapping, and sharing it here.

I have one game that qualifies for this next round, NP, USC/Gonzaga Ov.
This game barely qualifies at 153 or >. The current # is 153'.
If the commonly available number drops to below 153 it no longer qualifies.

No buys for me.

 

[gridman]

Much Thanks.

Much Thanks.

I have truly enjoyed your thread and appreciate all the work you must go through in arriving with your selections. Selective reasoning/analysis on my part coupled with your analysis/writeups has made this a very profitable season for me ( especially this past weekend - would you believe 5-0 for me?). Please keep up your outstanding work as I will be looking forward to your continued analysis/selections. BTW, just so I can follow your future writeups, which sport would you say you do your best work in? Once again, truly appreciate your thread and wishing you continued success. Thank you very very very much!

GM:toast::toast:

 

[Randercity]

Agree 100%

Agree 100%

I have truly enjoyed your thread and appreciate all the work you must go through in arriving with your selections. Selective reasoning/analysis on my part coupled with your analysis/writeups has made this a very profitable season for me ( especially this past weekend - would you believe 5-0 for me?). Please keep up your outstanding work as I will be looking forward to your continued analysis/selections. BTW, just so I can follow your future writeups, which sport would you say you do your best work in? Once again, truly appreciate your thread and wishing you continued success. Thank you very very very much!

GM:toast::toast:

Thanks for all the time and effort! :0008