College Hoops 2020

[RBD]

Watched the morning action, saw the NP Ov in Kentucky win, so I'm riding the next one.

Also doing something I rarely do, fading one of my Unders. Wyoming sailed Ov yesterday, and tend to go Ov in game two of B2B's. I'm hoping for tired legs not getting back on defense in the second half.

Update: Okay, the NP is 3-0, and I'm just 1-1 (NEVER fade the Unders!!!).
I'm going to add at least one more to the buy list. (I got 135, the house I hit must have had heavy action on the Under, but I'll use the common # 138 here.)

Buys:

Tulane/Tulsa Ov 126' W
Wyoming/San Diego St Ov 143 L
Ok/Kansas Ov 138

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-2. Screwed by Ok's pitiful 15 pt first half.
They came back with 47 in the second half but it was not enough.

Tournament Record: 5-7

Okay, got some work to do, down two units now. I went 1-2 but the NP gave me a 6-4 day so bad choosing on my part. Tournament record, NP, looks like this:
14-13, Ov 7-8, Un 7-5; 10 or > 5-4, Ov 2-3, Un 3-1; 13 or > 1-0, Ov 1-0, Un 0-0

Picking and choosing hasn't worked for me the first two days, maybe play them all today?
Back after I see which games qualify. I'll do the early games first and post up if I have anything.

MP has Ov in N Tex

NP has Ov in Ohio St, Seton Hall, Iowa, Kansas, Grambling

Un in 'Bama, Coppin St, N Car, Utah St

10 or > in 'Bama (10' at 141'), Ohio St (11'), Iowa (11), Col St (10 at 138)
13 or > in Coppin St (17)

Tournament records in this spot: Grambling 1-0, Georgetown 0-1, Kansas 0-1; CORRECTION, add N Car 0-1

At a diff of 17 I have to like the Coppin spot, but . . .
the # is 157, they've played four times this season and put up 164, 166, 155, 177.
Three of four have gone Over, and the only Under barely stayed Under.
With #'s like those I'd like to fade it, but I faded one of my Unders yesterday and got burnt, not trying it again today.

Update: Waiting to the last minute was the right move for the 'Bama spot. S Point, Stations, Caesar's reached 144 but 143' is the common # so I'll use that here.

Update #2: Didn't have time to try to 'cap sides yesterday, they had a good day, and a bad day, let's see what a third day brings: 'Bama -8 (already won), SMU -5', La Tech +1', Tol -3, Fairfield +6', Cal Itv -1, Utah St -5.
Tracking purposes only.

Buys:

Miss St/'Bama Un 143'
Col St/Utah St Un 138

 

[johnnyb]

thanks for posting, RBD! I'm not a big college hoops guy but I combed thru dozens and dozens of posts in this thread today and found your process intriguing....

Questions --> I went thru the entire thread (I think) and I couldn't find a description of the criteria you use for the 'new play'. Have you divulged that info or no? I understand that there appears to be a trigger (ie one team needs to be favored by more than 10 points to qualify, correct?)


i am going to go back and look for the criteria for your original system now

thx again for posting and pls let me know if i can help in any way

 

[RBD]

Johnny, thanks for stopping in. I'll try to save you some time - don't look for the criteria, it's not here (and has nothing to do with teams Fav by any amount of pts.) It's not in the college football thread either, where the NP went 23-4 (I think that's the correct record of posted plays) on Unders last season if you didn't catch it.
I share the play, but not the methodology, for good reason. I'll go into detail when I have more time.
Good luck with your plays today.

 

[johnnyb]

Understood. Thx for the explanation and have a great wkend!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[Mobb Deep]

NC/Fla St input

NC/Fla St input

What?s up RBD?

What?s your thoughts on NC/Fla St? I?m leaning towards over. Whenever I bet 98% of the time it?s the over

 

[RBD]

S'up Mob.
I have it as an Un in the New Play (Un are 7-5 in the tournament) but it qualifies by the bare minimum.
And NC is 0-1 in this spot during the tournament.
No play for me. If I had to, I'd go Un only because I don't like fading the NP, got screwed doing it two days ago.

Update: 4:40 PST - EVERY stat says Over, that, + gut feel, I'd take the Over.

 

[RBD]

Recap: A good day, 2-0.

Record: 7-7

MP went 0-1.
NP went 6-2, including 4-0 on Unders.
So, yeah, 2-0 was a good night but I could have done better playing them all like I was considering.
Still, a 2-0 night pulls me back to even, so, good progress, back in a position to start building a profit if I can.

Had the highest differential ever for an Under with the Coppin St game, and talked myself out of it.
On the plus side, I fought off the temptation to fade the Under and take the North Carolina game Over.

Today . . .

MP has Ov in N Tex, Grand Canyon.

NP has Ov in Ohio St, Wichita St, Florida St, N Texas, Nicholls St.

Un in Iowa, Texas, Utah State, Montana State.

10 or > in N Tex (both MP & NP), Ohio St, Iowa, Utah St, Nicholls St.

Records: Ohio State 1-0, Utah State 1-0, San Diego State 1-0.

Buys:
Michigan/Ohio Ov 142
Iowa/Illinois Un 154

 

[johnnyb]

Recap: A good day, 2-0.


MP has Ov in N Tex, Grand Canyon.

NP has Ov in Ohio St, Wichita St, Florida St, Nicholls St.

Un in Iowa, Texas, Utah State, Montana State.

10 or > in N Tex (both MP & NP), Ohio St, Iowa, Utah St, Nicholls St.

Records: Ohio State 1-0, Utah State 1-0, San Diego State 1-0.

Buys:
Michigan/Ohio Ov 142
Iowa/Illinois Un 154

Sorry for all my questions but when u say

"10 or > in N Tex (both MP & NP)"

u mean the over on north texas, right? and if so, how come over N texas wasnt listed here:

"NP has Ov in Ohio St, Wichita St, Florida St, Nicholls St.

Un in Iowa, Texas, Utah State, Montana State."

i am not trying to be a pain, i'm just trying to understand. thanks for posting and your patience!

 

[PJ12]

Sorry for all my questions but when u say

"10 or > in N Tex (both MP & NP)"

u mean the over on north texas, right? and if so, how come over N texas wasnt listed here:

"NP has Ov in Ohio St, Wichita St, Florida St, Nicholls St.

Un in Iowa, Texas, Utah State, Montana State."

i am not trying to be a pain, i'm just trying to understand. thanks for posting and your patience!

GREAT question!! n thanks for postin your thoughts RBD Much appreciated.

GL 2day E1

 

[RBD]

Ask as many questions as you like, glad to help you out, and it helps me, too. Example, you helped me spot an error from earlier today - North Texas does qualify as a NP too, I just left it off the list when I transposed spots from my log book to my post.

Saturday is always the most likely day to have a mistake cuz there's so much going on, handicapping and personal-wise.

Thanks for picking me up, I'll go back to the original post and add it, and double-check all games against my log to make sure there's no other errors.

Also, I think the record when both plays have the same game is only about .500, I'll try and check it out and get back in with an update.

Any other questions, fire away.

Good luck to you guys today . . .

 

[RBD]

Michigan plays the final possession of the game like it was the final possession/holding last shot of the first half, missed the shot and lost the game. And I lost any chance at the Over.
Adding the next 2 Unders.

Update: I forgot to update sides. 4-3 yesterday. 16-17 for the three days I was experimenting with them, nothing of value there, but I may have a subset within those numbers that could be worth something. It's 3-8, with plays on Iowa, Ohio, and N Tex left today (meaning, with the play at 3-8, you would fade it and buy their opponents, Illinois, Buffalo, W Kentucky.) If it continues to win at that % I'll buy a few.

Buys:
Michigan/Ohio Ov 142 L
Iowa/Illinois Un 154
Ok St/Texas Un 144'
Utah St/San Diego St Un 128'

 

[Mobb Deep]

Input G?Town/Creighton

Input G?Town/Creighton

RDB

Thoughts on G?Town/ Creighton over?

 

[RBD]

Mobb,
Sorry, was watching football most of the day, didn't check in on the forum, missed your question.
I'll try and check throughout today in case anyone has a question.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-2 yesterday, no damage. (Swept FCS, 3-0)

Tournament record: 9-9

NP was 4-5 yesterday, but Unders were 3-1,
Un in the tournament are 14-6, 10 or > 8-1.

With such a short card I was surprised to get any games but we got three.

NP has Ov in St. Bonnie, Un in Colgate, 'Bama.

What the hell, let's ride with the whole card today.

10' or > Loyola Maryland, 'Bama

Buys:

Loyola Maryland/Colgate Un 148'
VCU/St. Bonnie Ov 128'
LSU/'Bama Un 157

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-2 Sunday, hit with Bonnie's Ov, missed with Colgate Un. The day would be decided by the 'Bama game, and it went over by a basket, sticking me with a loss and a 1-2 day.

Tournament record: 10-11

Well, round one I gave back 2.1 units.

Let's look at why, and see if I can learn anything that can help in the next round.
DON'T JUST TAKE A LOSS, FORGET ABOUT IT, AND MOVE ON TO THE NEXT GAME.
BREAK DOWN YOUR LOSSES, ANALYZE THEM, IDENTIFY WAYS TO IMPROVE.

My tournament record is 10-11.
Broken down it's Ov 3-4, Un 6-4, sides 1-3.
Q - What sticks out?
A - sides at 1-3

Eliminate sides and I'm 9-8, nothing great, but profitable.

And now you know why I use totals for most of my buys - analyzing my play over the years shows me my weaknesses (sides) and strengths (Unders) allowing me to increase profits.

NP in the tournament is 25-22 overall, 53%. After correcting the numbers to factor in the corrections/errors I noted in post #174, the reg season ended at 58%, so tournament numbers are down 5%. That's not helping me either.

Reg season Unders closed at 59%.
Tournament Unders are 14-6, 63%. I'm only 6-4 on them, which means I didn't do a good at picking which spots to buy and left too many winners on the table.

So I have a few things to keep in mind for the final tournaments,
things that should put me in a better position to win.

I'll be back later in the week with the next buys.

 

[RBD]

Here's what I have to work with to start the final rounds:

NP 25-22, Ov 11-14, Un 14-8

10 or > 11-11, Ov 3-8, Un 8-3

13 or > 1-0, Un 1-0

I'll use Unders, obviously, especially any of 10 or >.

MP has Ov in W Kentucky

UPDATE: W Kentucky no longer qualifies.

NP has Ov in App St, G Tech, Oregon St, Liberty, Cleve St, Creighton, Miss St, Virg

Un in SMU, Ark, Utah St, Col St, Winthrop, Kansas, 'Bama, Grand Canyon

More spots than I thought I'd get.

Records in this spot: Colgate 0-1, Utah St 2-0, G Tech 1-0, Liberty 1-0, Col St 1-0, E Wash 1-0, 'Bama 1-1, Miss St 1-0, Iowa 1-0.

10 or > Ark, Utah St, Oregon St, Liberty, Cleve St, Winthrop, 'Bama, Iowa, Virg.
13 or > in Buffalo (this spot is > 20, highest all year before this was 17), Kansas

Decision to make on Colgate, their record in this spot is 0-1, but it's also a 10 or > spot which is 8-3 Un.

Buys:

Mahome's former home Un 131'

The insurance company with the commercial where they sing their name three times Ov 142

"Four of these gals go 'round the outside, 'round the outside" Un (wait; # dropping)

Winthrop/Villanova (I got nuttin' for this one) Un 143'

The place where Dorothy has a feeling she is not in anymore Un 146'

Broadway Joe's alma mater Un 148

Kim Kardashian's Vag Un 145'

 

[PJ12]

Here's what I have to work with to start the final rounds:



Kim Kardashian's Vag Un 145'

:mj07::mj07::mj07:
Hello Hellooo Hellooooooooo

GL in turney thnks for ur hard work :toast:

 

[gridman]

Am I Naive?

Am I Naive?

1) Tx Tech game
2) ?
3) ?
4) Winthrop game
5) ?
6) Alabama game
7) Grand Canyon game?????

Help - not too good solving your team clues.

GM

 

[RBD]

I'll post them in the morning.
Until then . . .

For number two, think the lady that greets foreigners arriving to New York.

Number three was an obscure song reference, I knew that one would be tough to get. Think hot wings.

For number five, think ruby slippers.